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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

NOAA Arctic Report Card 2024 : Tundra Greenness

The Arctic tundra biome occupies Earth’s northernmost lands, covering a 5.1 million km 2 area that encircles the Arctic Ocean and is bound to the south by the boreal forest biome. Arctic tundra ecosystems are experiencing profound changes as vegetation and underlying permafrost soils are strongly influenced by rising air temperatures and the rapid decline of sea ice (see essays Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice). By the late 1990s, an increase in the productivity of tundra vegetation became evident in global satellite observations, a phenomenon that continued and soon became known as “the greening of the Arctic.” Arctic greening is dynamically linked with Earth’s changing climate, seasonal snow, permafrost, and sea-ice cover, and remains a focus of multidisciplinary scientific research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-derived planetary boundary layer height from conventional meteorological measurements

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, which can estimate PBLH by integrating the morning temperature profiles and surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich dataset of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records augmented with high-resolution micro-pulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden-layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH dataset over the southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micro-pulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon; tropical rainforest) and CACTI (Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions; middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary layer processes with implications for improving the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observations of Offshore Low‐Level Jets Off the U.S. East Coast Reveal Systematic Biases in ERA5 and HRRR

Low-level jets (LLJs)—wind speed maxima typically occurring a few hundred meters above the surface—are common off the U.S. East Coast and influence many atmospheric processes with societal importance, including cloud formation, aviation safety, and search-and-rescue. However, their vertical structure and frequency remain poorly quantified due to limited offshore observations. This study presents new scanning Doppler LiDAR and infrared spectroradiometer data from the 2024 summer deployment of an offshore barge during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. These coupled wind and temperature profiles provide unprecedented resolution to assess LLJ behavior and model performance. LLJs occurred in over 21% of observed profiles, with a weak diurnal preference for nighttime and early morning hours and maximum winds typically near 300 m. Both ERA5 and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh analysis underestimate jet wind speeds and misrepresent the boundary layer thermal structure. These results highlight persistent model biases and the critical need for high-resolution offshore observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Viral niche-partitioning: comparative genomics of giant viruses across environmental gradients in a high Arctic freshwater-saltwater lake

Giant viruses (GVs; Nucleocytoviricota) impact the biology and ecology of a wide range of eukaryotic hosts, with implications for global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we investigated GV niche separation in highly stratified Lake A at the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. This lake is composed of a layer of ice-covered freshwater that overlies saltwater derived from the ancient Arctic Ocean, and it therefore provides a broad gradient of environmental conditions and ecological habitats, each with a distinct protist community and rich assemblages of associated GVs. The upper layer (mixolimnion) had measurable light and oxygen, and contained diverse GVs linked to photosynthetic protists, indicating adaptation to surface biotic and abiotic conditions. In contrast, the saline lower layer (monimolimnion), lacking oxygen and light, hosted GVs associated with predicted heterotrophic protists, some of which are known for a predatory lifestyle, and with several viral genes suggesting adaptation to deep-water anaerobic conditions. Our observations underscore the coupling between physical and chemical gradients, microeukaryotes and their associated GVs in Lake A, and provide insight into the potential for GVs to directly and indirectly impact host metabolism. There were similarities between the genetic composition of GVs and the metabolic processes of their potential hosts, implying co-evolution and niche-adaptation within the lake habitats. Notably, we found a greater presence of viral rhodopsins in deeper water layers, suggesting an evolutionary relationship with potential hosts capable of supplementing their energetic needs to thrive in low energy, anoxic conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Observationally Trained Markov Model for MJO Propagation

A Markovian stochastic model is developed for studying the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This model represents the daily changes in real time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices as random functions of their current state and background conditions. The probability distribution function of the RMM changes is obtained using a machine learning algorithm trained to maximize MJO forecast skills using observed daily indices of RMM and different modes of variability. Skillful forecasts are obtained for lead times between 8 and 27 days. Large ensemble simulations by the stochastic model show that with monsoonal changes in the background state, MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent (MC) is most likely to be disrupted in boreal spring and summer when MJO events propagate from favorable conditions over the Indian Ocean to unfavorable ones over the MC, and predictability is higher during spring and summer when MJO activity is away from the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fire reduces riverine DOC concentration draining a watershed and alters post-fire DOC recovery patterns

Abstract The loading of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimate transport to the ocean is a critical flux pathway in the terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle. Fires can significantly affect this flux through biogeochemical processes related to oxidation and mobilization of DOC in the soil. Therefore, in order to accurately estimate and model terrestrial carbon storage and export to the marine environment, we need to better understand the effects of fire on DOC flux. In this analysis, we compiled available observational data sets from seven watersheds across the conterminous United States generally spanning the years 1999–2019. We used these data sets to examine the effects of fire on riverine DOC concentration draining a watershed to study both the immediate impacts and the post-fire recovery patterns. Our results suggest that these fires result in an immediate decrease in riverine DOC concentration draining the watershed by 26 ± 15%, and the time required for DOC concentrations to recover to pre-fire levels was estimated to be, on average, approximately 9 months. During recovery, DOC concentration was 24 ± 11% lower than the long-term average for the watershed. In addition, the larger the proportion of the watershed that burned, the greater the concentration decrease and the longer the time period for post-fire recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of Humidity and Ice Supersaturation Profiles Over West Antarctica Using Ground-Based G-Band Radiometer Retrievals

Humidity profiles retrieved from a ground-based millimeter-wave radiometer located at McMurdo Station, Antarctica and the West Antarctica Ice Sheet Divide are presented and their suitability to study the humidity of the polar climate is assessed. The dry conditions of the Antarctic winter and spring are ideal for ground-based millimeter-wave measurements and the retrievals appear to realistically reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of humidity at both sites. Furthermore, the radiometer has the ability to capture daily variability of very low humidity (0.5 to 4 g/kg) in the low-to-mid troposphere with an uncertainty of 10-20% during the Antarctic winter, spring, and summer. Despite the coarse vertical resolution (200-600 m in the first 4 km), the retrievals provide additional information with respect to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) profiles used as background information. The radiometer is also able to realistically identify the location and frequency of supersaturated layers with respect to ice in the mid troposphere. The occurrence of supersaturated layers is correlated with the occurrence of ice clouds identified by a cloud mask. Overall, results show that ground-based microwave and millimeter-wave radiometry is a viable complement to satellite observations to provide continuous information on the thermodynamic state of the low-to-mid troposphere at high latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report

On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Iron precipitation under controlled oxygen flow: Mineralogical implications for BIF precursors in the Archean ocean

Banded iron formation (BIF) deposition in the Archean ocean is thought to have been initiated by the oxidation of dissolved iron into ferric primary precursor phases that descended through the water column and were deposited on the seafloor. Effective interpretation of the trace element and isotopic composition of BIFs in the geologic record requires an understanding of the identity and longevity of those precursor phases. Temporal and spatial variation in oxidant concentration and ocean chemistry may have driven precursor mineralogy. Furthermore, precursor phases may undergo transitions during descent and burial. This experimental study follows the evolution of iron mineralogy, speciation, and redox state during the precipitation of iron under variable oxygen fluxes and in fluids containing different iron-complexing anions (chloride, sulfate, and phosphate). Additionally, suspensions collected after incomplete oxidation were anoxically aged to simulate changes to precursor mineralogy during descent below the seawater redoxcline. Results from X-ray diffraction, sequential dissolution, colorimetric determination of Fe redox state, and Fe K-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy showed that under all experimental conditions, intermediate precipitates collected before complete iron uptake contained mineralized ferrous iron. Purely ferric mineral assemblages were not observed until iron was removed from solution. In low-oxygen experiments, intermediate precipitates contained phases with stoichiometric Fe 2+ , including magnetite, vivianite, and green rust (GR). Chloride green rust (GR1) had more ferric iron than sulfate green rust (GR2) and more readily transitioned to magnetite via disproportionation. GR2 was stable over a broader range of iron uptake; magnetite appeared mainly as an additional oxidation product in sulfate solution. In high oxygen experiments, mineralized ferrous iron occurred in amorphous phases or as a non-stoichiometric component in ferric oxides; final ferric assemblages were less crystalline than in low-oxygen equivalents. Low concentrations of phosphate increased the total iron oxidation rate, but also increased the ferrous content of intermediate precipitates. The incorporation of phosphate stabilized GR2 and facilitated GR2 precipitation over a larger range of iron uptake. In higher concentrations of phosphate, vivianite and poorly crystalline ferric hydroxides formed in place of GR. Here, these findings suggest that over a range of possible ocean chemistries, mixed-valence phases may have been short lived but relevant precursors to BIF. Additionally, anionic chemistry and oxidant concentration are shown to influence the crystallinity and chemical resistivity of final ferric assemblages, affecting their reactivity during later anoxic burial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new climatology of South American extratropical cyclogenesis with an intercomparison among ERA5 , JRA55 and the Brazilian Navy

Abstract In South America, the most destructive extratropical cyclones occur over the southeastern quadrant of the continent, a region that includes some of the world's largest population centres. However, there are few studies of cyclogenesis in this region, and little is known about how the varying origins of these storms impact subsequent behaviour. By supplementing an observational record with current reanalysis data, this study reveals the general characteristics of cyclones that develop in the lee regions of the Andes and those that develop nearer the Atlantic coast. The comparative climatologies demonstrate that cyclone development in these separate contexts is driven by topography, local atmospheric circulations and basin‐scale climate oscillations. The analysis further reveals a low‐frequency seesaw of lee and coastal cyclogenesis, with cross‐basin ocean temperature differences playing a teleconnectional role.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional Traits Resolve Mechanisms Governing the Assembly and Distribution of Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities in the Global Ocean

Microorganisms drive much of the marine nitrogen (N) cycle, which jointly controls the primary production in the global ocean. However, our understanding of the microbial communities driving the global ocean N cycle remains fragmented. Focusing on “who is doing what, where, and how?”, this study draws a clear picture describing the global biogeography of marine N-cycling microbial communities by utilizing the Tara Oceans shotgun metagenomes. The marine N-cycling communities are highly variable taxonomically but relatively even at the functional trait level, showing clear functional redundancy properties. The functional traits and taxonomic groups are shaped by the same set of geo-environmental factors, among which, depth is the major factor impacting marine N-cycling communities, differentiating mesopelagic from epipelagic communities. Latitudinal diversity gradients and distance-decay relationships are observed for taxonomic groups, but rarely or weakly for functional traits. The composition of functional traits is strongly deterministic as revealed by null model analysis, while a higher degree of stochasticity is observed for taxonomic composition. Integrating multiple lines of evidence, in addition to drawing a biogeographic picture of marine N-cycling communities, this study also demonstrated an essential microbial ecological theory—determinism governs the assembly of microbial communities performing essential biogeochemical processes; the environment selects functional traits rather than taxonomic groups; functional redundancy underlies stochastic taxonomic community assembly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1?K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Temperature profiling at the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN): methodology and uncertainty quantification

We quantify the accuracy of the temperature profiling from ground-based spectral infrared radiance observations at the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN). Results from pre-campaign tests and comparisons with in-situ ground-based and airborne sensors at AWAKEN indicate that temperature profiles agree satisfactorily with traditional instruments for wind energy applications. The bias is within a fraction of a degree and appears to be related to atmospheric stability. Root-mean-square differences from the reference instruments are always smaller than a degree and are often well described by the online uncertainty estimation product. Height-to-height and site-to-site temperature differences are in excellent agreement with in-situ observations, which justifies the use of temperature profilers to characterize static stability and spatial gradients of temperature.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal Directions Matter: How Environmental Factors Drive Convective Cloud Detrainment Heights

This study investigates how environmental factors influence the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) in deep convective clouds. Through a novel application of the Linear Non‐Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we discover causal structures between environmental variables and LMD, observed at six tropical sites operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. LiNGAM effectively identifies causal directions among variables of interest, revealing robust relationships such as those among the lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and convective inhibition (CIN), aligning with prior knowledge. Relative humidity is shown to directly influence LMD; however, this relationship exhibits strong nonlinearity and becomes difficult to detect when the contrast between oceanic and continental environments is excluded from the analysis. This study highlights the importance of establishing causal relationships before performing statistical inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗