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At least 775 records · Page 43

Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication submissions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Algal Predator and Pathogen Signature Verification

The purpose of this PTS was to conduct work with ASU, specifically to further develop Spectroradiometricbased technology that has potential to function as early warning of the active presence of predators and pathogens in outdoor algal ponds. Chlorella sorokiniana and the pathogen, Vampirovibrio chlorellavorus were selected for investigation because they had previously been implicated in several pond crashes at ASU's Arizona Center for Algal Technology and Innovation (AzCATI). Sandia conducted small-scale laboratory experiments comparing control and infected cultures of C. sorokiniana. Spectrally-resolved reflectivity data, as well as optical density, and pulse amplitude modulated fluorescence (PAM) were collected and analyzed to identify the spectral response of active V. chlorellavorus infection. The results of this limited, yet robust, experiment confirmed the initial hypothesis that signature V. chlorellavorus infection of C. sorokiniana could be identified based on the presence of a chlorophyll metabolites generated when the algal chlorophyll is degraded by the pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

EMR Coupling into Systems: Calibration of the Sandia Reverberation Chamber and Validation of the Single Slot Aperture Gain Model

Electromagnetic threats to weapon systems are always specified in terms of an incident plane wave. Sandia strongly prefers to test electromagnetic susceptibility in a reverberation chamber because a reverberant environment does not allow any potential point of entry to be shadowed. At the same time, a reverberation chamber averages out the directive gain of any points of entry. This would result in an under test of the system. Subsequently, a plane wave correction factor is needed to relate the plane wave and reverberation environments. Warne, et al, at Sandia have developed a theoretical correction factor and a previous attempt to validate it using an anechoic chamber (Higgins & Charley, Electromagnetic Radiation (EMR) Coupling into Complex Systems Aperture Coupling into Canonical Cavities in Reverberant and Anechoic Environments and Model Validation (SAND2007-7391), 2007) was not conclusive. In this current work the theoretical factor has been validated by creating the plane wave environment inside a gigahertz transverse electromagnetic (GTEM) cell instead of an anechoic chamber. The correlation is excellent at all but the lowest frequencies tested. The discrepancy in the low frequency regime is understood in terms of limits on the test capabilities.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Algal Predator and Pathogen Signature Verification

The purpose of this PTS was to conduct work with Arizona State University (ASU), specifically to further develop Spectroradiometric-based technology that has potential to function as early warning of the active presence of predators and pathogens in outdoor algal ponds. Chlorella sorokiniana and the pathogen, Vampirovibrio chlorellavorus were selected for investigation because they had previously been implicated in several pond crashes at ASU’s Arizona Center for Algal Technology and Innovation (AzCATI). Sandia conducted small-scale laboratory experiments comparing control and infected cultures of C. sorokiniana . Spectrally-resolved reflectivity data, as well as optical density, and pulse amplitude modulated fluorescence (PAM) were collected and analyzed to identify the spectral response of active V. chlorellavorus infection. The results of this limited, yet robust, experiment confirmed the initial hypothesis that signature V. chlorellavorus infection of C. sorokiniana could be identified based on the presence of a chlorophyll metabolites generated when the algal chlorophyll is degraded by the pathogen.

Timlin, Jerilyn↗

Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication sub-missions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a statistical model (tool) for classifying buried object detectability

To improve warfighter safety under changing requirements, assets must be adaptable and able to detect and mark buried hazards. Current GPR systems would benefit by improvements in speed, usability, and operational versatility to enhance operational effectiveness for all platforms and missions. Our sponsor requests that LLNL research GPR methodologies and approaches to allow for specific improvements to be made in those areas. MiRadar uses a novel multi-static array architecture coupled with tomographic processing to focus returned energy from the real (physical) and synthetic (motion-derived) apertures. 3D streaming movies of the subsurface are easily interpreted, slashing training times. Real-time processing codes enable imaging and operation three times faster; automated volumetric detection algorithms warn of possible hazards. In a two-week trial, multiple vehicle-mounted arrays and a new ultralightweight architecture on a small, unmanned aircraft system executed 498 runs, collecting over 400km of data on 13 preemplaced lanes containing 384 simulated buried threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Continuous Readout Stream of the MicroBooNE Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber for Detection of Supernova Neutrinos

The MicroBooNE Continuous Readout Stream is a parallel readout of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) which enables detection of non-beam events such as those from a supernova neutrino burst. The low energies of these neutrinos and the intense cosmic-ray flux due to the near-surface detector location makes triggering on these events very challenging. Instead, MicroBooNE has pioneered a novel approach for detecting supernova neutrinos relying on a delayed trigger generated by SNEWS (the Supernova Early Warning System). The continuous readout of the LArTPC is achieved through the use of real-time compression algorithms (zero suppression and Huffman compression) implemented in an FPGA (field-programmable gate array) in the readout electronics. We present the results of the optimization of the data reduction algorithms, and their operational performance. In order to demonstrate the capability of the continuous stream to detect low-energy electrons, a sample of Michel electrons from stopping cosmic-ray muons is reconstructed and compared to a similar sample from the lossless triggered readout stream.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

SHIELDS

Los Alamos National Lab has developed SHIELDS, a comprehensive software platform that incorporates satellite observational data to determine the near-Earth surface charging environment (SCE) with high accuracy. SHIELDS is an effective line of defense for communication, navigation, and scientific satellites located in the Earth’s magnetosphere by predicting hazards resulting from solar storms. Advance warning of solar storms enables satellite operators to place onboard electronics or instruments in a safe mode until the danger has passed. The platform also supports design of more robust satellites. SHIELDS leverages the Lab’s 50 years designing and building spacebased sensors and studying space weather, and it has won a R&D 100 Award.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MCNP6 Source Primer: Release 1.0

This document contains examples of MCNP general source usage to support the MCNP6 User’s Manual. The examples range from basic to advanced sources with different applications. There are also examples of how MCNP can fail and warnings for the users to look for at the output to ensure proper results are being created. The overall aim of this document is to provide solid examples of how to define sources with MCNP as well as how to verify the sources are setup properly. The reasoning for needing such complex sources is not discussed in the present work. Also, this document is not meant to be exhaustive of every MCNP source option and combinations of source options possible. However, it is intended to frequently update this document with new source examples provided by users. Please feel free to contact the MCNP6 development team to learn about how to submit a new or updated source example. Please include “General Sources Primer” in the subject line to route the request to the appropriate developers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Basic Research Needs Workshop on Quantum Materials for Energy Relevant Technology

Imagine future computers that can perform calculations a million times faster than today’s most powerful supercomputers at only a tiny fraction of the energy cost. Imagine power being generated, stored, and then transported across the national grid with nearly no loss. Imagine ultrasensitive sensors that keep us in the loop on what is happening at home or work, warn us when something is going wrong around us, keep us safe from pathogens, and provide unprecedented control of manufacturing and chemical processes. And imagine smart windows, smart clothes, smart buildings, supersmart personal electronics, and many other items — all made from materials that can change their properties “on demand” to carry out the functions we want. The key to attaining these technological possibilities in the 21st century is a new class of materials largely unknown to the general public at this time but destined to become as familiar as silicon. Welcome to the world of quantum materials — materials in which the extraordinary effects of quantum mechanics give rise to exotic and often incredible properties. To realize the tantalizing potential of quantum materials, there is much basic scientific research to be done. Recognizing the high potential impact of quantum materials, nations around the world are already investing in this effort. We must learn how the astonishing properties of quantum materials can be tailored to address our most pressing technological needs, and we must dramatically improve our ability to synthesize, characterize, and control quantum materials. To accelerate the progress of quantum materials research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES), sponsored a “Basic Research Needs Workshop on Quantum Materials for Energy-relevant Technology,” which was held near Washington, D.C. on February 8–10, 2016. Attended by more than 100 leading national and international scientific experts in the synthesis, characterization, and theory of quantum materials, the workshop identified four priority research directions (PRDs) that will lay the foundation to better understand quantum materials and harness their rich technological potential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ADPSM Learning Team Review 2015-001. NPI-7 Drum/POC Dropped – Leads to Improved Lifting

As part of the ADPSM Safety Improvement Plan, the WSST has established a subcommittee for a Learning Team. The purpose of a Learning Team is to transfer and communicate the information into operational feedback and improvement. We want to pay attention to the small things that go wrong because they are often early warning signals and may provide insight into the health of the whole system.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Optical Fiber Sensor Technology Development and Field Validation for Distribution Transformer and Other Grid Asset Health Monitoring

Power transformers are critical pieces of infrastructure in the electric grid that are both extremely expensive and difficult to replace. These transformers often have long lead times for replacement, and failures can create long service disruptions. This project has developed a new suite of sensors designed to give early warning of the impending failure of these important power transformers before it is too late and a major failure occurs. By using novel fiber optic sensors instead of conventional existing technologies, we are able to measure transformer characteristics indicative of impending failures in ways that were not previously possible. These new optical fiber-based sensors are completely immune to the strong magnetic fields present in power transformers, as well as being capable of using distributed measurement techniques. Distributed measurement techniques enable the fiber to return information all along its length as opposed to only collecting data at a single point; as would a thermocouple or standard pressure sensor.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Final Report – Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Applied Spectra, Inc.

Groundwater resources can be contaminated by a variety of surface and subsurface sources. For instance, metals can be leached from surface dumps (e.g. landfills, etc.) and reach groundwater supplies by percolation though the soil. Additionally, subsurface activities such as geologic carbon storage (GCS) could result in contamination. In the event of CO2 leakage, freshwater above the injection site can potentially be contaminated with metals either originating from the formation fluids or leached from formation rocks by CO2 acidification. Detection of these contaminating metals is critical for maintaining water safety and providing an early warning of a containment breach. Therefore, a compact, subsurface capable laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) based sensor has been developed for groundwater quality monitoring applications. LIBS sensor technology has been advanced from benchtop feasibility studies to a custom fabricated, watertight prototype. The all optical sensor head is built using a low cost passively Q-switched (PQSW) laser, which is fiber coupled to a control unit containing the pump laser and a gated spectrometer. Separating the LIBS excitation laser from the pump and spectrometer allows the expensive and fragile components to remain in a safe, central location while only the sensor head needs to enter the subsurface. Testing of the prototype sensors show Limits of Detection (LODs) comparable to benchtop, actively Q-switched systems and has verified that the fiber coupling and triggering schemes perform as desired.

McIntyre, Dustin↗

Optical Engine Lockout System Design and Operation

Engine run days in the Diesel Combustion and Fuel Effects Lab are hectic. The long mental lists that must be kept by engine operators, paired with the tight time constraints between experiments, can cause operational issues that may be dangerous to personnel and/or cause damage to test equipment. Until now, a paper sign has been used to warn operators not to motor the engine when a foreign object has been placed inside of it. Unfortunately, this simple administrative control has failed in the past, motivating this effort to develop an improved system. The lockout system described in this document introduces an engineering control that, when activated, actually prevents the engine from being motored. The new system consists of a primary and a secondary control panel. Prior to an operator placing a foreign object into the cylinder, they press a button on the secondary control panel near the engine. This breaks the interlock circuit for the engine dynamometer and activates LEDs on both control panels to notify operators that a foreign object is present within the engine cylinder. Once the work is done and all foreign objects have been removed from the combustion chamber, two operators must be present to disable the system by simultaneously pressing the buttons on the primary and secondary control panels. Requiring a second operator to disable the system increases accountability and reduces the likelihood of potentially costly mistakes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The British Mission at Los Alamos [Slides]

Fission was first produced in Nazi Germany in 1938. Einstein warned FDR in a letter dated August 2, 1939, but Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. In spring 1940, the Frisch-Peierls Memo was completed. The Battle of Britain began in July 1940. The attached detailed report concerns the possibility of constructing a ‘super-bomb’ which utilises the energy stored in atomic nuclei as a source of energy. The energy liberated in the explosion of such a super-bomb is about the same as that produced by the explosion of 1,000 tons of dynamite.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Real Time Applications Using Linear State Estimation Technology (RTA/LSE)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000849 to design, develop, and demonstrate three real-time applications for monitoring power system stability. The applications use phasor measurements and processing by a linear state estimator (LSE) to improve system visibility and accuracy. These applications leverage the large and expanding phasor measurement systems being deployed by utilities throughout the world, and specifically in the United States. Phasor measurements provide a much more detailed view of the power systems than traditional SCADA systems, so can provide better visibility of events and an early warning of developing problems. These three applications are real-time contingency analysis (RTCA), area angle monitoring (AAM), and a voltage stability index (VSI). The project was fully completed as proposed. All three applications were successfully implemented and demonstrated. There were challenges the caused project delays, however. While the RTCA is based on well-known concepts and readily available tools, its deployment using phasor measurements meant it needed to be adapted to sometimes sparse measurements and limited coverage areas. EPG met these challenges with extensive modeling and testing. The AAM is based on unproven research, so EPG had to deal with a lot of unknowns and develop additional methods for practical implementation. These activities took more time than anticipated, so required extra time for development. In addition, there was difficulty getting adequate measurement locations for successful deployment and utility installation delays. Consequently, the project required a time extension to complete. These three real-time applications, RTCA, AAM, and VSI, use only phasor measurement input. Since they do not require the EMS or other measurement systems, they can serve as a backup and security check for the EMS. Phasor measurements are validated and extended by an LSE. The LSE will always produce an output even when some inputs are impaired, so the RT applications will operate even when the EMS state estimator does not converge and the applications it supports cannot function. Consequently, these RT applications can provide valuable additional reliability for control center operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bryan Mound Abandoned Cavern 3 Stability Analysis - 2021 Review

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is moving towards employing an expanded enhanced monitoring program. In doing so it has become apparent that there is a need for a better project wide understanding of the current state of Bryan Mound abandoned Cavern 3 stability. Cavern 3 has been inaccessible since 1988 when it was plugged and abandoned and thus this comprehensive report is structured by focusing on 1) a summarization of what can be discerned from historical records prior to 1988 and 2) a presentation and discussion of our current understanding of Cavern 3 based solely on surface monitoring and geomechanical analyses. Historical literature state the cavern was deemed unsuitable for oil storage, as it could not be definitively determined if fluid pressure could be maintained in the borehole. Current surface monitoring indicates the largest surface subsidence rates are occurring above Cavern 3. The subsidence rates are linear with no evidence of acceleration. Cavern collapse could occur if there is insufficient pressure holding up the roof. Next steps are to implement a microseismic system that will lend to a better understanding of cavern stability, as well as provide an improved early warning system for loss of integrity.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Design Considerations for Distributed Energy Resource Honeypots and Canaries

There are now over 2.5 million Distributed Energy Resource (DER) installations connected to the U.S. power system. These installations represent a major portion of American electricity critical infrastructure and a cyberattack on these assets in aggregate would significantly affect grid operations. Virtualized Operational Technology (OT) equipment has been shown to provide practitioners with situational awareness and better understanding of adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Deploying synthetic DER devices as honeypots and canaries would open new avenues of operational defense, threat intelligence gathering, and empower DER owners and operators with new cyber-defense mechanisms against the growing intensity and sophistication of cyberattacks on OT systems. Well-designed DER canary field deployments would deceive adversaries and provide early-warning notifications of adversary presence and malicious activities on OT networks. In this report, we present progress to design a high-fidelity DER honeypot/canary prototype in a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗