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NASA NTRS2023

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) heliosphere clusters H1 and H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. Solar wind stream interaction regions, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ~27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of coronal mass ejections into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5–10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver et al. (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space weather↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature 205 Tl decay clarifies 205 Pb dating in early Solar System

Radioactive nuclei with lifetimes on the order of millions of years can reveal the formation history of the Sun and active nucleosynthesis occurring at the time and place of its birth. Among such nuclei whose decay signatures are found in the oldest meteorites, 205 Pb is a powerful example, as it is produced exclusively by slow neutron captures (the s process), with most being synthesized in asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. However, making accurate abundance predictions for 205 Pb has so far been impossible because the weak decay rates of 205 Pb and 205 Tl are very uncertain at stellar temperatures. To constrain these decay rates, we measured for the first time the bound-state β - decay of fully ionized 205 Tl 81+ , an exotic decay mode that only occurs in highly charged ions. The measured half-life is 4.7 times longer than the previous theoretical estimate and our 10% experimental uncertainty has eliminated the main nuclear-physics limitation. With new, experimentally backed decay rates, we used AGB stellar models to calculate 205 Pb yields. Propagating those yields with basic galactic chemical evolution (GCE) and comparing with the 205 Pb/ 204 Pb ratio from meteorites, we determined the isolation time of solar material inside its parent molecular cloud. We find positive isolation times that are consistent with the other s-process short-lived radioactive nuclei found in the early Solar System. Our results reaffirm the site of the Sun’s birth as a long-lived, giant molecular cloud and support the use of the 205 Pb– 205 Tl decay system as a chronometer in the early Solar System.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lidar measurements of yawed-wind-turbine wakes: characterization and validation of analytical models

Abstract. Wake measurements of a scanning Doppler lidar mounted on the nacelle of a full-scale wind turbine during a wake-steering experiment were used for the characterization of the wake flow, the evaluation of the wake-steering set-up, and the validation of analytical wake models. Inflow-scanning Doppler lidars, a meteorological mast, and the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system of the wind turbine complemented the set-up. Results from the wake-scanning Doppler lidar showed an increase in the wake deflection with the yaw angle and that the wake deflection was not in all cases beneficial for the power output of a downstream turbine due to a bias of the inflow wind direction perceived by the yawed wind turbine and the wake-steering design implemented. Both observations could be reproduced with an analytical model that was initialized with the inflow measurements. Error propagation from the inflow measurements that were used as model input and the power coefficient of a waked wind turbine contributed significantly to the model uncertainty. Lastly, the span-wise cross section of the wake was strongly affected by wind veer, masking the effects of the yawed wind turbine on the wake cross sections.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1981

High-resolution observations of the isotopic composition of carbon and silicon in the galactic cosmic rays

High resolution satellite observations of the galactic cosmic rays (approximately 100-300 MeV/amu) have yielded determinations of near-earth isotopic compositions, which are presented: (C-13)/(C-12) = 0.070 + or - 0.006; (Si-29)/(Si-28) = 0.109(+0.024, -0.014); and (Si-30)/(Si-28) = 0.084(+0.020, -0.014). Using a standard propagation model, source values greater than solar are derived for each of these ratios. The (C-13) excess may be the result of cross section uncertainties, but the (Si-29) and (Si-30) appear to reflect real differences between the galactic cosmic-ray source and the solar system.

Wiedenbeck, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2002

Charge Generation and Propagation in Igneous Rocks

Various electrical phenomena have been reported prior to or concurrent with earthquakes such as resistivity changes, ground potentials, electromagnetic (EM), and luminous signals. Doubts have been raised as to whether some of these phenomena are real and indeed precursory. One of the reasons for uncertainty is that, despite decades of intense work, there is still no physically coherent model. Using low- to medium-velocity impacts to measure electrical signals with microsecond time resolution, it has now been observed that when dry gabbro and diorite cores are impacted at relatively low velocities, approximately 100 m/s, highly mobile charge carriers are generated in a small volume near the impact point. They spread through the rocks, causing electric potentials exceeding +400 mV, EM, and light emission. As the charge cloud spreads, the rock becomes momentarily conductive. When a dry granite block is impacted at higher velocity, approximately 1.5 km/s, the propagation of the P and S waves is registered through the transient piezoelectric response of quartz. After the sound waves have passed, the surface of the granite block becomes positively charged, suggesting the same charge carriers as observed during the low-velocity impact experiments, expanding from within the bulk. During the next 2-3 ms the surface potential oscillates, indicating pulses of electrons injected from ground and contact electrodes. The observations are consistent with positive holes, e.g., defect electrons in the O(2-) sublattice, traveling via the O 2p-dominated valence band of the silicate minerals. Before activation, the positive holes lay dormant in the form of electrically inactive positive hole pairs (PHP), chemically equivalent to peroxy links, O3X/OO\XO3, with X=Si(4+), Al(3+), etc. PHPs are introduced into the minerals by way of hydroxyl,O3X-OH, which all nominally anhydrous minerals incorporate when crystallizing in H2O-laden environments. The fact that positive holes can be activated by low-energy impacts, and their attendant sound waves, suggests that they can also be activated by microfracturing. Depending on where in the stressed rock volume the charge carriers are activated, they will form rapidly moving or fluctuating charge clouds that may account for earthquake-related electrical signals and EM emission. Wherever such charge clouds intersect the surface, high fields are expected, causing electric discharges and earthquake lights.

Freund, Friedemann↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Higher-Order Statistical Moments of Predicted Sonic Boom Waveforms Through Turbulence

Sonic booms generated by supersonic aircraft are affected by turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer through which they propagate. Turbulence effects lead to random variability of the sonic boom waveforms measured on the ground, complicating the prediction of such waveforms. As an initial effort to predict the waveform variability, the solution of the coherent or mean sonic boom waveform has previously been formulated by the author. The current paper extends the formulation to derive an expression of the second-order statistical moment necessary to calculate the variance of the spectral amplitudes. Since the derivation uses a full wave equation, results using the derived expression will be compared with those obtained using a parabolic approximation. In order to fully quantify the uncertainty of our predictions, the higher order statistical moments are also formulated and are shown to be approximately zero. Consequently, the probability density function (pdf) of the spectral amplitudes is predicted to be Gaussian. The formulation is further extended to determine the pdf of the loudness of sonic booms and quantify the uncertainties associated with the loudness prediction. Results from the formulation are compared with available flight test data.

sonic booms↗

NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic likelihood approach to filtering transport processes: advection-diffusion dynamics

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated advective and diffusive evolutionary problems, based upon the Dynamic Likelihood (DLF) approach to filtering. The DLF was developed specifically for hyperbolic problems –waves–, and in this paper, it is extended via a split step formulation, to handle advection-diffusion problems. In the dynamic likelihood approach, observations and their statistics are used to propagate probabilities along characteristics, evolving the likelihood in time. The estimate posterior thus inherits phase information. For advection-diffusion the advective part of the time evolution is handled on the basis of observations alone, while the diffusive part is informed through the model as well as observations. We expect, and indeed show here, that in advection-dominated problems, the DLF approach produces better estimates than other assimilation approaches, particularly when the observations are sparse and have low uncertainty. The added computational expense of the method is cubic in the total number of observations over time, which is on the same order of magnitude as a standard Kalman filter and can be mitigated by bounding the number of forward propagated observations, discarding the least informative data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1977

The Viking Relativity Experiment

Measurements of the round-trip time of flight of radio signals transmitted from the earth to the Viking spacecraft are being analyzed to test the predictions of Einstein's theory of general relativity. According to this theory the signals will be delayed by up to approximately 250 microsec owing to the direct effect of solar gravity on the propagation. A very preliminary qualitative analysis of the Viking data obtained near the 1976 superior conjunction of Mars indicates agreement with the predictions to within the estimated uncertainty of 0.5%.

Shapiro, I. I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Methods for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Current research supporting NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project is focused on the efficient prediction of uncertainty in sonic boom loudness generated by low-boom aircraft concepts. This paper focuses on research incorporating aircraft trim and aerostructural analysis into a multidisciplinary system-level uncertainty analysis. This enables the modeling of a steady-state representation of a point in the uncertainty space, simulating the vehicle as it would be flown. This approach also enables multiple uncertain parameters defining the configuration of the vehicle to be reduced to three: Mach number, altitude, and aircraft weight. To demonstrate this methodology, a case study exploring a conceptual low-boom supersonic aircraft is performed. Two different approaches are used to model the interactions between nearfield pressure signature analysis and sonic boom propagation, and their performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational expense. One method uses a set of local surrogate models to generate a large number of nearfield signatures and perform Monte Carlo analysis. This method is found to produce, at a lower expense, uncertainty metrics that are comparable to the second method, in which uncertainty metrics are computed based on loudness metric values obtained directly from simulated nearfield signatures.

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Supersonics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗