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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Evaluating the Viability of Compact and Portable X-Ray Systems for an Exploration Medical System in a Ground Demonstration

MOTIVATION FOR INCLUDING X-RAY CAPABILITIES For upcoming exploration missions, the need for enhanced medical care becomes critical due to extended mission durations, significant communication delays, and minimal evacuation opportunities. Previous evidence by our team has revealed that among the 119 medical conditions targeted for management during spaceflight within NASA Exploration Medical Capability’s IMPACT Condition List, at least 36 could benefit from radiography (XR). Utilizing XR for diagnosis and management is hypothesized to significantly improve management of crew health by enabling the immediate evaluation and confirmation of potential injuries or illnesses. Beyond clinical applications, XR also holds potential for non-destructive testing (NDT). This includes applications such as assessing the structural integrity of the spacecraft, analyzing surface and meteorite samples, and inspecting onboard electronics. THREE CANDIDATE X-RAY SYSTEMS CHOSEN FOR GROUND DEMONSTRATION The Exploration Medical Capability Element (ExMC) and the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) of the Mars Campaign Office initiated early background work for ground demonstrations. In FY21, ExMC published a Concept of Operations to guide requirements development. By FY23, XMIPT and yet2, a technology scouting and open innovation consulting firm, had completed a market survey and trade study to identify potential miniature XR systems. Selection criteria included commercial-off-the-shelf availability, low mass and volume, and regulatory compliance. The top three candidate devices—Remedi REMEX-KA6, MinXray Impact, and FujiFilm Xair—were acquired to characterize the requirements and capabilities of each device. To facilitate testing, phantoms, and radiographic personal protective equipment (PPE) were purchased, and a dedicated space was designated for XRS usage at Glenn Research Center. During this presentation, the mass, volume, and power requirements for each of the three piloted devices are revealed, as well as information regarding the detector, mA, and kV of the devices. GOAL AND OBJECTIVES OF A MINI XRS GROUND DEMONSTRATION The primary goal of ExMC/XMIPT technology demonstrations is to bridge the gap in available, flight-ready medical device technology by flight-testing diagnostic and treatment technologies essential for managing medical conditions during exploration missions. These technologies must adhere to vehicle constraints such as mass, volume, power, and data requirements, integrate seamlessly with medical decision-support tools, and support increasingly Earth-independent operations. There are three main objectives for the future ground demonstration of these three devices. First, we aim to determine the full capabilities of these three miniature XR systems within the context of the spaceflight environment. While medical applications are the primary focus for the miniature XR, a comprehensive exploration of non-medical uses has been initiated by an XMIPT-sponsored NASA SPARK campaign to identify collaborators. Second, we plan to establish criteria and to use insights gained from evaluating each miniature XR against those criteria to select the most suitable system among the three candidates. Third, we intend to evaluate their suitability for flight certification, which includes assessing its durability for launch, reentry, and exposure to high background radiation, as well as its compatibility with existing data architecture systems. Numerous subject matter experts from NASA and partner institutions will support these objectives.

C A Haddix↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic life cycle assessment of CO 2 -EOR operations towards net negative emissions at farnsworth field unit

Optimizations of CO 2 Water Alternating Gas(WAG)- systems with multi-objectives of incremental recovery and maximization of CO 2 storage are challenging. Here, the incorporation of a total Greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment is mostly ignored leading to inaccurate estimation of overall net carbon emissions of their operations. In this study, the effect of a total GHG life cycle assessment on a multi-objective CO 2 -WAG optimization with integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) which factors carbon tax credit is conducted. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted utilizing a 20 -year optimized post history matched data from a high fidelity reservoir simulation model. Using data generated from the optimum result, a techno-economic life cycle analysis was further conducted. The first scenario classified as the base model had an estimated 81% of purchased CO 2 sequestered. The results through a comprehensive techno-economic LCA model yielded a net estimate of 73% of purchased CO 2 . The optimized forecasted model which considered key operational and reservoir factors such as WAG ratio, injection rates and periods, and well specification resulted in an improved sequestration of 92% of purchased CO 2 . However, this also dropped to 84% after taking it through LCA. These results clearly indicate a significant amount of net CO 2 is not accounted for when operations are not analyzed through LCA. From the LCA, direct flaring volumes of CO 2 , energy consumption and efficiency of unit equipment were noticed to be the major causes of these reductions. Considering ten main sources of energy as source of energy generation, a comparative techno-eco LCA was conducted. The results confirmed a lower net volume and NPV for energy sources with higher carbon footprints and vice versa. Thus, a total LCA of CO 2 -WAG greatly influences net storage factor of purchased CO 2 and hence project NPV where tax credit/incentives per ton of CO 2 sequestered is considered. Although operational conditions are optimized for best results, there are significant factors that leads to minimization of net storage factor. This study therefore provides an insightful information for optimizing CO 2 -WAG multi-objectives to achieve minimum GHG emission.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Assessment of a Distributed Electric Propulsion System for the SUSAN Electrofan

The SUSAN Electrofan is a new hybrid electric large regional jet aircraft concept being studied by NASA that leverages advanced propulsion system technologies such as distributed electric propulsion (DEP) and boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) to reduce fuel consumption and emissions. In order to evaluate the individual benefits of these technologies toward the SUSAN Electrofan’s wing-mounted propulsion systems, three configurations are proposed. The first consists of two underwing pylon-mounted podded propulsors and serves as a baseline, while the second features an underwing pylon-mounted DEP concept with 16 ducted fans in a mail-slot nacelle. The third and final configuration mounts the mail-slot nacelle directly onto the pressure side of the wing to also take advantage of BLI. This paper presents preliminary investigations into the design and performance of the first two propulsion system configurations. This begins with an initial propulsor and mail-slot design where the aeropropulsive design space is explored, and adverse effects are addressed through iterative geometry modifications. The propulsion system configurations are then installed onto a wing–body model to account for integration effects and assess the relative aerodynamic and shaft power performance of each concept. Results indicate the potential benefits of DEP, which come from significant reductions in total drag, provided by operation at much lower propulsor fan pressure ratios.

ARMD↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Dirac R-matrix calculation for the electron-impact excitation of W +

Abstract Aims : tungsten has been chosen for use as a plasma facing component in the divertor for the ITER experiment, and is currently being used on existing tokamaks such as JET. W + plays an integral role in assessing the impurity influx from plasma facing component of tokamaks and subsequent redeposition. Together with previously calculated a neutral tungsten electron-impact dataset this study allows us to determine neighbouring spectral lines in the same wavelength window of the spectrometer, and detect if there is strong blending of overlapping lines between these two ion stages as well as providing ionisation per photon ratios for both species. The new data is to be used for tungsten erosion/redeposition diagnostics. Methods : a significantly modified version of the GRASP0 atomic structure code in conjunction with DARC (Dirac Atomic R -matrix Code) are used to calculate the Einstein A coefficients and collisional rates used to generate a synthetic W II spectrum. The W II spectrum is compared against tungsten spectral emission experiments. Results : this study is used to model the spectrum of W ii , providing the predictive capability of identifying spectral lines from recent experiments. These results provide an integral part of impurity influx and redeposition determination, as the ionisation rates may be used to calculate S/XB ratios.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Miniature X-Ray Bone Densitometer

The purpose of the Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) project is to design, build, and test an advanced X-ray absorptiometry scanner capable of being used to monitor the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the human musculoskeletal system during prolonged spaceflight. The instrument is based on the principles of dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and is designed not only to measure bone, muscle, and fat masses but also to generate structural information about these tissues so that the effects on mechanical integrity may be assessed using biomechanical principles. A skeletal strength assessment could be particularly important for an astronaut embarking on a remote planet where the consequences of a fragility fracture may be catastrophic. The scanner will employ multiple projection images about the long axis of the scanned subject to provide geometric properties in three dimensions, suitable for a three-dimensional structural analysis of the scanned region. The instrument will employ advanced fabrication techniques to minimize volume and mass (100 kg current target with a long-term goal of 60 kg) of the scanner as appropriate for the space environment, while maintaining the required mechanical stability for high precision measurement. The unit will have the precision required to detect changes in bone mass and geometry as small as 1% and changes in muscle mass as small as 5%. As the system evolves, advanced electronic fabrication technologies such as chip-on-board and multichip modules will be combined with commercial (off-the-shelf) parts to produce a reliable, integrated system which not only minimizes size and weight, but, because of its simplicity, is also cost effective to build and maintain. Additionally, the system is being designed to minimize power consumption. Methods of heat dissipation and mechanical stowage (for the unit when not in use) are being optimized for the space environment.

Charles, Harry K., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Support to X-33/Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program

The Primary activities of Lee & Associates for the referenced Purchase Order has been in direct support of the X-33/Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program. An independent review to evaluate the X-33 liquid hydrogen fuel tank failure, which recently occurred after-test of the starboard tank has been provided. The purpose of the Investigation team was to assess the tank design modifications, provide an assessment of the testing approach used by MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) in determining the flight worthiness of the tank, assessing the structural integrity, and determining the cause of the failure of the tank. The approach taken to satisfy the objectives has been for Lee & Associates to provide the expertise of Mr. Frank Key and Mr. Wayne Burton who have relevant experience from past programs and a strong background of experience in the fields critical to the success of the program. Mr. Key and Mr. Burton participated in the NASA established Failure Investigation Review Team to review the development and process data and to identify any design, testing or manufacturing weaknesses and potential problem areas. This approach worked well in satisfying the objectives and providing the Review Team with valuable information including the development of a Fault Tree. The detailed inputs were made orally in real time in the Review Team daily meetings. The results of the investigation were presented to the MSFC Center Director by the team on February 15, 2000. Attached are four charts taken from that presentation which includes 1) An executive summary, 2) The most probable cause, 3) Technology assessment, and 4) Technology Recommendations for Cryogenic tanks.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment

This LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment examined 34 total systems critical to the operation of the LANSCE accelerator complex. These systems are primarily owned, operated, and maintained by AOT Division. Based on the criteria used in this assessment, there are 12 AOT Division systems that are potential high risk as related to longterm LANSCE operations. These systems may also impact the success of LAMP. Also summarized in this report are the facility activities planned over the next decade. These include general facility maintenance and infrastructure upgrades, as well as planned electrical system upgrades. The LANSCE Facility Operations (LFO) Division is responsible for this activity scope and budget planning. Most of the planned activities are general in nature and should have little impact on accelerator operations or LAMP activities as currently envisioned. However, close coordination with between AOT, LFO, and LAMP would be prudent. A next step should be to develop an actionable plan to address the high-risk systems. Potential criteria for developing such a plan could include: (1) Evaluating the global impact of the system (operations, program, safety, etc.), (2) Ranking by impact (ranked now by risk), (3) Estimating cost to implement the corrective actions (Is there already a plan or not?), and (4) Estimating the time required for corrective actions. An alternative could include integration of the assessment data into both the Asset Management System and the Maintenance Analytics Risk Register.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Progress Report on BISON Metallic Fuel Model Development and V&V Using EBR-II Legacy Data

In this report, the activities and achievements made by Argonne National Laboratory for the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) BISON code metallic fuel validation and verification project in FY2022 are summarized. The FIPD-BISON integration powered metallic fuel low-burnup swelling framework has been enhanced to cover both radial and axial swelling analyses. Axial-dependent as-fabricated fuel radius profiles have been used to improve the accuracy in evaluating radial swelling strain. The simulations of the IFR experiment X447, which was focused on FCCI/CCCI induced cladding degradation and failure, have been converted into a BISON metallic fuel assessment case with detailed documentation, which is also the first FIPD-BISON integration powered assessment case in BISON. A FIPD-BISON integration repository has been established to be an optional submodule of BISON to support FIPD-BISON integration powered assessment cases. Preliminary trials to simulate the in-cell out-of-pile transient experiment have been made after implementing some essential models such as cladding plasticity models and liquid phase penetration models. The initial results are promising and help identify gaps that need to be filled in FY2023 and beyond, to eventually achieve OPTD-BISON integration powered assessment cases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Thermal Scattering Law on Similarity Assessment in Light-Water or Polyethylene-Moderated Systems

A collaborative effort between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is underway to provide a technical basis and methodology for the criticality safety community to use the sum of fractions (SoF) method for generating limits for mixtures of “selected actinide nuclides” included in the ANSI/ANS 8.15 standard. The PNNL scope in this project is to define a range of mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu moderated with either light water or polyethylene and to examine the critical masses for these mixtures. The ORNL scope is primarily to provide validation support for these studies. More complete discussion of the project and its validation aspects will be presented at the upcoming International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC) this Fall in Sendai, Japan. Clear differences in benchmark similarity to application systems as assessed by the integral parameter ck are noted in the validation studies performed as part of this project as a function of moderator. The c k value is a correlation coefficient that represents that amount of shared uncertainty in k eff due to cross sections between two systems. Individual nuclide-reaction contributions between the two systems can be simply summed to arrive at the total c k value. Specifically, the c k values for light-water–moderated solution experiments are higher for a water-moderated application than for a polyethylene-moderated application. This result is neither totally unexpected nor surprising, but the magnitude of the difference was difficult to anticipate. The TSUNAMI sequence, in the SCALE 6.2.4 code package developed by ORNL, was used to generate eigenvalues and reactivity effects with perturbation-theory based approach through sensitivity coefficients for all nuclides in the system with all reactions and energy groups. The TSUNAMI-Indices and Parameters (IP) sequence then uses the sensitivity data generated through TSUNAMI to generate relational parameters (i.e., c k ) to determine the degree of similarity between systems. One detail of the SCALE material and data implementation must be discussed at this point. Several thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are available for 1 H. SCALE uses a different nuclide ID number for each TSL; essentially, each version of 1 H is treated as a unique nuclide. For example, 1 H bound in water ( 1 H-H2O) is assigned the nuclide ID 1001, whereas 1 H bound in polyethylene (h-poly) is assigned the nuclide ID 9001001. The same cross section data are used for all reactions in 1 H, regardless of TSL, except for scattering below the TSL cutoff energy. TSUNAMI-IP treats different nuclide IDs as different nuclides; thus, no uncertainty is shared between 1 H-H2O and h-poly, despite much of the same data, including covariance data, being used for both nuclides. This presents a question: how much of the difference in assessed similarity between water- and polyethylene-moderated systems is due to the moderators, and how much is caused by the treatment of 1 H-H2O and h poly with cross section and covariance data. The extended edits generated by TSUANMI-IP allow for an investigation of this issue specifically, as well as a demonstration of the general techniques available within TSUNAMI to understand the results of the similarity assessment. This paper presents and analyzes the similarity assessment of both water- and polyethylene-moderated systems for a single benchmark: PST-002-001.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Connecting suborganismal data to bioenergetic processes: killifish embryos exposed to a dioxin-like compound

A core challenge for ecological risk assessment is to integrate molecular responses into a chain of causality to organismal or population level outcomes. Bioenergetic theory may be a useful approach for integrating suborganismal responses to predict organismal level responses that influence population dynamics. In this work, we describe a novel application of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB), theory in the context of a toxicity framework (Adverse Outcome Pathways, AOP) to make quantitative predictions of chemical exposures to individuals, starting from suborganismal data. We use early life stage exposure of Fundulus heteroclitus to dioxin-like chemicals (DLCs) and connect AOP Key Events (KEs) to DEB processes through “damage” that is produced at a rate proportional to the internal toxicant concentration. We use transcriptomic data of fish embryos exposed to DLCs to translate molecular indicators of damage into changes in DEB parameters (damage increases somatic maintenance costs) and use DEB models to predict sublethal and lethal effects of young fish. By changing a small subset of model parameters, we predict the evolved tolerance to DLCs in some wild F. heteroclitus populations, a data set not used in model parameterization. The differences in model parameters points to reduced sensitivity and altered damage repair dynamics as contributing to this evolved resistance. Our methodology has potential extrapolation to untested chemicals of ecological concern.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2015

Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Hazard Development Process: Appendices - Volume 1

The Chief Engineer of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Office requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) perform an independent assessment of the ESD's integrated hazard development process. The focus of the assessment was to review the integrated hazard analysis (IHA) process and identify any gaps/improvements in the process (e.g., missed causes, cause tree completeness, missed hazards). This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Smiles, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Hazard Development Process: Volume 2 - Appendices

The Chief Engineer of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Office requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) perform an independent assessment of the ESD's integrated hazard development process. The focus of the assessment was to review the integrated hazard analysis (IHA) process and identify any gaps/improvements in the process (e.g. missed causes, cause tree completeness, missed hazards). This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Smiles, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic nuclear fuel performance modeling of uranium nitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a nuclear fuel candidate for advanced reactor designs and an alternative being considered for light water reactors due to its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density than UO 2 . As with any nuclear fuel, swelling and fission gas release are important factors for safety, while also being some of the hardest phenomena to predict with a high degree of confidence. Getting a grasp on the gas swelling behavior and release is crucial to lower the barrier for UN utilization. An accelerated swelling rate at high temperatures observed experimentally, sometimes referred to as “breakaway swelling,” further complicates the prediction of fuel performance of UN. A mechanistic model has been developed using a multiscale approach to describe the intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior. Lower-length-scale calculations have been employed to inform models of the gas and self-diffusion behavior, resolution rate, and bubble shape. Leveraging previous work on high burnup UO 2 , two populations of intragranular bubbles are considered; small bulk bubbles and larger bubbles located along dislocations. The dislocation bubbles were found to be crucial to the overall swelling behavior, and the breakaway swelling transition was associated with the transition in the gas atom diffusion mechanism from an irradiation-induced athermal diffusion regime at lower temperatures to an intrinsic thermal equilibrium regime at higher temperatures, accelerating the growth of the dislocation bubbles. Similarly, the threshold for fission gas release was associated with the grain boundary vacancy diffusivity surpassing the gas atom diffusivity at sufficiently high temperatures, allowing the over-pressurized grain boundary bubble to grow in size and interconnect. Using thermo-mechanical models with the fission gas model, two integral fuel pin assessment cases were simulated. Finally, this work demonstrates the ability of a multiscale approach to accelerate the understanding of advanced fuel forms when experimental data is limited.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic-environmental impacts of industrial energy assessment: Sustainable industrial motor systems of small and medium-sized enterprises

Energy assessments can provide an effective way of identifying and implementing energy efficiency measures to save energy costs and avoid emissions throughout manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it generates significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic techno-economic-environmental framework for capturing the interactions. This article employs methodologies to improve the energy efficiency of small and medium-size industries through their sustainable industrial motor systems. Motor systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. Case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing sustainable motor systems and the importance of energy assessments. Here, the integrated macro-economic analysis quantifies the regional sustainability impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency offered by an energy auditing program in Ohio over a ten-year period. Results show that implementing all the center’s motor recommendations have directly saved $\$702$ M in energy costs, avoided 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and created 3,445 jobs, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $\$788$ M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced regional economic impacts. It provides policy implications for encouraging sustainable industrial motor systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method

More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a F 1 -score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗