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NASA NTRS2004

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 2

The following articles from the "Journal of Air Transportation" were processed: Future Requirements and Concepts for Cabins of Blended Wing Body Configurations:A Scenario Approach; Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry: A Marketing-Based Perspective; An Application of the Methodology for Assessment of the Sustainability of the Air Transport System; Modeling the Effect of Enlarged Seating Room on Passenger Preferences of Domestic Airlines in Taiwan; Developing a Fleet Standardization Index for Airline Pricing; and Future Airport Capacity Utilization in Germany: Peaked Congestion and/or Idle Capacity).

Bowen, Brent↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Airborne Science Program: NASA Stratospheric Platforms

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts a wide variety of remote sensing projects using several unique aircraft platforms. These vehicles have been selected and modified to provide capabilities that are particularly important for geophysical research, in particular, routine access to very high altitudes, long range, long endurance, precise trajectory control, and the payload capacity to operate multiple, diverse instruments concurrently. While the NASA program has been in operation for over 30 years, new aircraft and technological advances that will expand the capabilities for airborne observation are continually being assessed and implemented. This presentation will review the current state of NASA's science platforms, recent improvements and new missions concepts as well as provide a survey of emerging technologies unmanned aerial vehicles for long duration observations (Global Hawk and Predator). Applications of information technology that allow more efficient use of flight time and the ability to rapidly reconfigure systems for different mission objectives are addressed.

Curry, Robert E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification during CO2 Injection

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the ARMA 2025 (59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium) Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 8-11, 2025. Accurate mapping and quantification of these networks are essential to ensure the integrity of CO2 storage reservoirs, understand and reduce potential leakage, and maintain long-term environmental safety. This study presents a novel machine learning-driven approach, integrated with geomechanical analysis, to quantify fracture networks and assess their spatial distribution during CO2 injection. This paper combines microseismic monitoring data with principles of hydraulic diffusivity and geomechanical analysis to characterize reservoir scale fracture network. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to assimilate time-dependent pressure data and microseismicity into a cohesive framework, which not only identifies microseismic triggering fronts but also tracks fracture distribution during active injection. Besides, leveraging image log data and analysis our approach also provides another angle of the insights to solidate the fracture networks understanding and geomechanical impacts. Key results from our study include the detection of over 100 distinct fracture clusters across the injection site, with fracture orientations strongly correlated with the prevailing in-situ stress field.

CO2 storage and sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic Limitations in Single-Crystal High-Nickel Cathodes

High-nickel cathodes attract immense interest for use in lithium-ion batteries, to boost Li-storage capacity while reducing cost. For overcoming the intergranular-cracking issue in polycrystals, single-crystals are considered an appealing alternative, but aggravating concerns on compromising the electrochemical kinetics of electrodes. We report here a quantitative assessment of electrochemical reaction in single-crystal LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.8 O 2 using operando hard X-ray microscopy/spectroscopy, revealing a strong dependence of redox kinetics on the state of charge (SOC) - being sluggish at low SOC while increasing rapidly as SOC increases both in the bulk electrode and individual particles. The observation is corroborated by transport measurements and finite-element simulation, indicating that the sluggish kinetics in single-crystals is governed by ionic transport at low SOC and may be alleviated through synergistic interaction with polycrystals integrated into a same electrode. Finally, with the elucidated mechanistic origin and alleviation solution of kinetic limitations in single-crystal high-Ni cathodes, this work constitutes a step forward in enabling their practical deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance and economic viability assessment of a novel CO 2 adsorbent for manufacturing and integration with coal power plants

Here, this study assesses the performance and economic feasibility of a novel CO 2 adsorbent for post-combustion capture in DOE/NETL’s 650 MWnet SubC PC power plant (case B11B). Bench-scale tests showed an initial adsorption capacity of 16.3 wt%, which decreased to 12.1 wt% after 41 adsorption–desorption cycles due to induced particle aggregation by over-humidification. With a conservative adsorption capacity of 8.8 wt% and 695 adsorption–desorption cycles, an adsorbent replenishment rate of 10 tonnes/h is necessary to capture 90% of CO 2 . The breakeven sale price of the adsorbent produced at this rate is $\$$1,293/tonne, which is 40 to 80 times lower than prices for K 2 CO 3 adsorbents reported in the literature (e.g., K 2 CO 3 /TiO 2 , K 2 CO 3 /ZrO 2 ) while providing better capture performances. Sensitivity analysis reveals that increasing the plant production rate from 10 to 40 tonnes/h reduces the sale price by 8%. The study also compares the CO 2 capture cost to Cansolv, an integrated solvent-based technology. The novel adsorbent requires 2.4 GJ/tonne of CO 2 for regeneration, lower than Cansolv’s 2.7 GJ/tonne. With conservative performance estimates, the capture cost is $\$$54/tonne of CO 2 , slightly higher than Cansolv’s $\$$45/tonne. To achieve lower or comparable capture costs to Cansolv, the adsorbent should meet one of the following conditions at a commercial scale: minimum 950 cycles, 16 wt% capture capacity, 50% of the adsorbent recovery, or a reduced cost to $\$$646/tonne by upscaling the manufactury to 75 tonnes/h.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of population mortality kinetics with application to the longevity followup of the Navy's '1,000 aviators'

A simple physiological model of mortality kinetics is used to assess the intuitive concept that the aging rates of populations are proportional to their mortality rates. It is assumed that the vitality of an individual can be expressed as a simple summation of the weighted functional capacities of its organs and homeostatic systems that are indispensable for survival. It is shown that the mortality kinetics of a population can be derived by a linear transformation of the frequency distribution of vitality, assuming a uniform constant rate of decline of the physiological functions. A simple comparison of two populations is not possible when they have different vitality frequency distributions. Analysis of the data using the model suggests that the differences in decline of survivorship with age between the military pilot population, a medically insured population, and the control population can be accounted for by the effect of physical selection on the vitality frequency distribution of the screened populations.

Economos, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Overtraining and exercise motivation: A research prospectus

The problems of exercise overtraining has recently become one of great interest to professionals in the field of human performance assessment. Quite obviously, the ultimate goal of the training process is to improve physical performance. However, excessive training can result in the opposite effect, that is, a performance decline and an impairment in the functional work capacity of the body. Research indicates that both psychological as well as physiological disturbances are quite common in overtrained individuals. For example, psychological changes include increased levels of depression, fatigue, and a lack of motivation. Similarly, impairment of the physiological function of the cardiovascular, metabolic, and endocrine systems also have been found. Some similarities may be found in the psychological and physiological states of crew members exposed to extended space flight and overtrained individuals. Therefore, the possibility exists that the crew members subjected to extended missions in space may develop overstressed or overtrained or both states during their flights. If such states do develop within the crew members, mission performance may be impaired. With these points as a background, the intent is to address potential research directions that NASA may consider viable and of a mutual interest to the researcher. A clear framework by which to begin discussion of research topics is needed; therefore, working definitions of overtraining and exercise motivation are presented. Subsequently, a proposed conceptional model of how exercise overtraining and motivation interact is presented. In support of the proposed model is a brief literature review of relevant areas. Potential research projects are presented and discussed.

Hackney, Anthony C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An economic assessment of behind-the-meter photovoltaics paired with batteries on the Hawaiian Islands.

Due to natural variability and uncertainty, the ever-increasing penetration of solar generation in Hawaii presents challenges to power grid operators to maintain reliable system operation. Demand response (DR) has the potential to be a cost-effective tool for Hawaii to reach its aggressive renewable energy goals while maintaining the reliability of power grids. The Hawaii Public Utilities Commission has approved the Hawaiian Electric Company's revised portfolio of DR programs. The companies have released a grid services purchase agreement and subscribed an initial tranche of load into their DR programs. This paper presents innovative analytical methods and comprehensive economic assessment for distributed photovoltaics (PV) paired with battery energy storage systems (BESSs) for two new DR programs, including fast frequency response and capacity grid service. Optimal dispatch and sizing methods are proposed for the paired system considering different tariff schedules and PV compensation programs across five islands. It was found that while the best resource configuration and potential economic benefits vary with tariff structure, a BESS paired with PV can be optimally dispatched to generate multiple value streams simultaneously. Compensation from DR programs is an important value stream to help increase the cost-effectiveness of the integrated system.

Battery energy storage system↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Capacity for Policy-makers in a Virtual Setting: Providing Tools to Analyze Wildfire Smoke Plumes and Their Impacts

The NASA DEVELOP Program conducted 10-week long feasibility projects in a remote work setting, including partnering with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter and the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency to investigate wildfire smoke from 2000 - 2020 in the Pacific Northwest using satellite-derived data. The team engaged with platforms for collaboration both internally with NASA affiliates and externally with community organizations. Working from multiple states, the team members used a variety of software including Google Meet, Microsoft Teams, and Google Earth Engine to foster communication and work with data in a shared virtual environment. Throughout the project, the team learned that executing the project in a distanced work setting made it easier to reach out to scientists across the country for expertise and guidance. To study changes in air quality resulting from wildfire smoke, the team utilized data from NASA’s Fire Information from Resource Management System (FIRMS) and the ESA’s Sentinel-5 TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The team created a Google Earth Engine web-based tool, “Plume Hazards and Observations of Emissions by Navigating an Interactive eXplorer” (PHOENIX), to visualize changes in pollutants and aerosol optical depth after fire events. The potential relationship between plume height and fire radiative power was evaluated by using NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Aqua and Terra satellites and NASA’s Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard Terra with the MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX). The PHOENIX smoke assessment tool and science communication infographics will be shared electronically with the partner organizations. Furthermore, the team introduced the partners to MINX and will provide a tailored tutorial that included a recorded video and a written component with a live virtual workshop. These resources build capacity for further research and education on wildfire smoke and air quality within communities.

NASA DEVELOP↗

DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative performance assessment of air-source and ground-source heat pumps using CO₂ and R-410A with water well integration: A simulation study

This study investigates the performance and feasibility of heat pump systems for residential space heating in cold climates, with a particular focus on ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) with water wells. Four configurations are modeled and compared, a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), an R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP with water well integration, and an R-410A ground-source heat pump with water well integration. System simulations are conducted at both equipment and whole-building levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across ten representative cities using EnergyPlus. Results show that water-well-coupled GSHPs maintain approximately 87 % of their efficiency and 85.5 % of heating capacity as ambient temperature drops from 47 °F/8.3 °C to −15 °F/-26.1 °C, whereas ASHPs retain only 55 % efficiency and 44.5 % capacity. R-410A systems achieve higher efficiency, while CO 2 systems provide significant environmental advantages, including reduced risks of groundwater contamination from refrigerant leakage. On average, the CO 2 GSHPs deliver 35–45 % heating energy savings relative to ASHPs and demonstrate strong potential as a replacement for gas furnaces in cold climates. This work represents a systematic comparative assessment of CO 2 and R-410A air-source and ground-source heat pumps with water well integration. In conclusion, the findings highlight the technical viability, environmental benefits and deployment potential of CO 2 GSHPs, offering a pathway toward efficient and sustainable residential heating solutions in diverse U.S. climates.

CO 2 GSHP↗

DOE OSTI2025

Human in vitro metabolism of an environmental mixture of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread environmental contaminants that pose health risks to humans. Toxicity testing approaches of PAHs have evolved from traditional rodent models to New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), such as high-throughput screening in zebrafish, enabling rapid evaluation of chemical hazards. However, translating toxicity findings from laboratory systems to humans remains difficult due to complexity and species-specific differences. Chemical dosimetry modeling offers a quantitative framework to bridge this gap, but its accuracy depends on robust knowledge of PAH metabolism. The objective of this study was to measure human metabolism rates of Supermix-10, the ten most abundant PAHs found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, to support development of human pharmacokinetic models. We incubated individual PAHs from Supermix-10 in pooled human liver microsomes and quantified parent PAH disappearance using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV and florescent detection. To assess the potential of mixture interactions, we also measured metabolism of all 10 compounds in an equimolar mixture and compared rates of parent disappearance to those observed for individual PAHs. All Supermix-10 PAHs demonstrated rapid parent compound disappearance in human hepatic microsomes. PAHs grouped into three metabolism patterns: high metabolism rates and capacity (2-methylnaphthalene, acenaphthylene, fluorene, naphthalene), high affinity metabolism that rapidly achieves low-level saturation (benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene), and moderate metabolism rates and capacity (fluoranthene, pyrene, retene, phenanthrene). Smaller PAHs exhibited faster metabolism, and higher metabolism rates correlated inversely with molecular weight. When incubated in an equimolar mixture, Supermix-10 demonstrated significantly slower metabolism (47–89 %) compared to metabolism of individual PAHs at the same concentration. These findings enhance our understanding of PAH metabolism in humans and demonstrate significant mixture interactions under the conditions tested. Furthermore, our findings offer insights into the metabolic behavior of Supermix-10 and provide critical metabolism rate data to support the development of physiological based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Dosimetry models can translate PAH chemical dosimetry from high-throughput testing platforms, like zebrafish and cellular system assays, to human exposures enhancing the accuracy and reliability of PAH risk assessments.

2-methylnaphthalene↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards a Comprehensive Approach for Habitat Restoration in the Columbia Basin: Case Study in the Grande Ronde River

Abstract Despite immense resources directed towards habitat restoration, recovering fish populations remains a daunting and perplexing issue. In 2015, recommendations for a comprehensive approach to habitat restoration in the Columbia River basin were published in Fisheries, which included elements of landscape ecology and resilience, broad public support, governance for collaboration and integration, and capacity for learning and adaptation. Using the Grande Ronde River basin as a case study, we convened a working group consisting of local restoration practitioners, managers, and researchers involved in habitat restoration research, monitoring, and evaluation to assess progress towards meeting these recommendations. We concluded that partnerships and collaborations in governance have been formed and research using a landscape perspective has been integrated into decision making, but efforts would benefit from gaining broader public support, formalizing an adaptive management strategy, and defining objectives and indicators for biological and ecological diversity. Continued progress will require consistent policy and funding support from the broader region. We envision this self-assessment at the 5-year milestone would be helpful to other groups facing similar challenges.

White, Seth M. (ORCID:0000000349186865)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗