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DOE OSTI2023

Responses of a Modular Floating Wind TLP of MarsVAWT Supporting a 10 MW Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

Offshore floating wind foundations supporting a large wind turbine require a large yard facility or significant facility upgrades for their fabrication. To overcome the cost increase associated with facility upgrades, an innovative lightweight modular floating foundation is developed. The foundation comprises multiple modules to enable their assembly on water, offering many benefits and expanding fabrication options for a reduction in the overall cost of the platform. In this paper, the foundation modules and their assembly are briefly described, and an analysis of the platform’s dynamic responses is presented. The modular foundation includes a modular and lightweight tension leg platform (TLP) called “MarsVAWT” which supports a Darrieus 10 MW vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT). The platform is moored with highly pretensioned wire rope tendons. The responses of the platform are analyzed in the time domain in a semi-coupled manner under the turbine operating and parked conditions for an offshore site in the US Northeast. The tower base shear forces and bending moments increase considerably with the combination of wind and waves, compared to those with wind only. The tendon tensions on the weatherside in the operating condition at high wind speeds are comparable to the values of the 50-year extreme (parked). The tendon tension increases are highly correlated to the platform pitch, as well as the horizontal and vertical velocities and vertical acceleration at the tendon porch. The modular platform performances and tendon designs are confirmed to comply with industry standards and practices.

Boo, Sung Youn↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards standardized nuclear reactors: Seismic isolation and the cost impact of the earthquake load case

We report nuclear energy has a key role to play in global decarbonization. Impediments to the widespread deployment of reactors are their projected high capital cost and levelized cost of energy, and time required to analyze, design, license, construct, and commission them. The earthquake load case is a key cost driver for a new build nuclear plant, because near-surface soils and seismic hazard are different at each site, requiring site-specific analysis, design, engineering, qualification, licensing, and regulatory review, essentially making every design First-of-a-Kind (FoaK). To enable deployment at the scale needed for deep decarbonization, the cost and time impact of the seismic load case must be significantly mitigated, and plants must be standardized. Seismic base isolation has been proven to considerably reduce the earthquake response of structures and equipment but has yet to be applied to a nuclear power plant in the United States, in part because the financial impacts, positive or negative, are not known. Because there are no recent non-proprietary data to characterize the influence of the seismic load case on capital cost, it is difficult to confidently quantify the financial benefits of seismic isolation. Scheme-level designs of two fundamentally different advanced reactor buildings were developed to assemble cost data on the influence of the seismic load case. Both buildings were equipped with three bespoke pieces of safety-related equipment and analyzed for incremented levels of earthquake shaking to quantify the seismic penalty on equipment, in terms of vessel weights and horizontal accelerations. Using analysis results, a questionnaire was developed and transmitted to nuclear utilities, reactor developers, engineers, and equipment suppliers to collect cost data on engineering and fabrication costs for these unique pieces of safety-class equipment. Synthesis of the cost data showed that the seismic load case significantly affects the capital cost (sum of engineering and fabrication cost) of safety-class equipment, with engineering costs being comparable to fabrication costs. Standardization of safety-class equipment is made possible by seismic isolation, that is, equipment designed for minimal seismic robustness can resist earthquake shaking at a site of much higher seismic hazard. The average reduction in the capital cost of the safety-related equipment, enabled by seismic isolation, is a factor of two for FoaK equipment and a factor of five for standardized equipment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of Energy Savings and Demand Reduction for a Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage (Final Report)

To mitigate the variation in demand on the electric grid, thermal energy storage (TES) is an alternative to electric batteries or installing new peaking power plants. Stakeholders and policy makers across the United States have expressed interests in promoting TES, as demonstrated by the US Department of Energy’s Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings program and the efforts of various state legislatures. However, the cost value provided by TES are unclear. If reliable cost benefits were determined, stakeholders would have a clearer picture of the financial returns that can be gained from their investment in TES. The study in this report is conducted by ORNL with collaboration with Emerson the Helix Innovation Center. In the first part of this report, EnergyPlus was used to perform whole-building simulations for two residential buildings in Indianapolis and Atlanta. The HVAC system in both buildings were equipped with phase change material TES. The TES tank was charged in off-peak hours and discharged in peak hours to perform load shifting. First, the economic value implied by existing time-of-use (TOU) rates offered by utility companies was analyzed via whole-building simulation. Second, existing demand reduction (DR) incentives sourced from 3 different electrical grid administrators (i.e., California, Texas, and New England region) were surveyed to determine their implied value. The study suggests that the traditional value analysis that focuses on ROI for the building owner significantly undervalues TES technology making economic viability difficult. A more comprehensive value analysis that includes peak demand management and deferred capital for peaking power plants shows that TES should be economically viable but here the value is greater for the utility and requires large market penetration and aggregation to fully realize the benefits. Therefore, to facilitate commercialization, new business models are needed that include a broader range of stakeholders and distribute the value of TES proportionally. In the 2 nd part of this project, the benefits of a novel phase change material (PCM) integrated heat pump configuration were evaluated via detailed component based simulation. A one-dimensional PCM heat exchanger model which discretizes the PCM tank and refrigerant tubes into small control volumes is developed. Each control volume can have different PCM temperatures, PCM properties, and heat transfer coefficients. The PCM tank is charged by a wrapped tank condenser and discharged by an internal refrigerant coil. The PCM heat exchanger model is integrated into DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model for heat pump system simulation. To demonstrate the performance of the PCM integrated heat pump, a case study in Chicago was performed. A Time-of-Use utility structure-based control strategy is implemented to schedule the PCM tank charging and discharging mode switching. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, the PCM integrated heat pump shows superior performance on load shifting and utility cost reduction. As a result, the proposed system demonstrates 24.6% utility saving for cooling application and 25.8% utility saving for heating application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling laser-wakefield accelerators using the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation in a Lorentz boosted frame

Future, high-fidelity simulations of multi-GeV-class laser Wakefield accelerators (LWFAs) will need to model the propagation of high-intensity laser drivers over meter-scale plasmas with high spatial and temporal resolutions, thus requiring high amounts of computational resources. Various techniques have been devised over the years to reduce the computational cost of such simulations, including the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation, and the use of the Lorentz boosted frame technique. In this paper we discuss the combination of these two computational techniques, highlighting the resulting significant reduction in the computational cost of LWFA simulations and the limitations of this approach. The combination of the two techniques can potentially become essential for the modeling of a multi-TeV, LWFA-based collider.

Laser Wakefield Acceleration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic Heat Pumped Thermal Storage and Flexibly Carbon Capture System

As the U.S. grid evolves toward a lower-carbon system, fossil generation assets need to operate in energy markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration while also decreasing carbon emissions. Current carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies suffer from high capital cost and an inability to operate flexibly during periods of oscillating demand. The ARPA-E FLECCS Program Phase 1 was created to fund designing and optimizing innovative CCS processes that enable flexibility on a high-VRE grid. To address this need, the Colorado State University (CSU) Team won funding to design a synergized system of thermal energy storage, power generation, and flexible carbon capture to enable breakthrough system performance that achieves an LCOE <$75/MWh with >99% capture rate. This approach will target new or existing natural gas combined cycle power plants. The proposed design utilizes novel hot and cold thermal energy storage (TES) technologies that store low-cost, off-peak electricity as thermal energy to power CCS solvent regeneration and boost plant output during periods of peak demand. The design provides an overall optimized net present value (NPV) by maximizing low carbon power to grid while prices are highest using Storworks Power’s concrete TES technology. The team also capitalizes on decades of ION Clean Energy’s (ION) development in low cost and flexible pioneering solvent technology, which has proven reductions in energy consumption and overall cost of 28% and 38%, respectively, compared with state-of-the-art CCS.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Resin Management Using 3R-Scan - 20154

The most important factor underlying optimal waste management is developing a clear picture of the radioactivity content of the waste and its impact on waste disposal cost. For over 35 years since the publishing of 10CFR61, waste characterization has relied on sampling the final waste product after formation. In the days following 10CFR61, the cost of final disposal was marginal with only a small impact on the overall costs. Constraints were added by provisions of the Low Level Waste Policy Act of 1985 leading to increasingly limited access to those disposal sites that remained available. In addition, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) pressure promoting waste volume reduction led to disposal costs inevitably rising. Despite this, characterization practices in monitoring of waste generation for activity content still center on the same dated processes. This results in a disposal classification on the basis of endpoint sampling without consideration of the homogeneity of the waste mixture. It can also disregard consideration of the representativeness of the single or small sample base. As a minimum effort, a formalized sampling program of a fixed grouping of waste streams can be implemented that could account for more than 95% of all of the activity carried in solid waste products. The sample results for each radionuclide could then be trended as time passes to develop reasonable scaling factors for difficult to measure radionuclides. This process, identified in NRC guidance, has been rigorously followed by a relatively small number of facilities. The trended scaling factors serve to improve accuracy by identifying anomalous results that could otherwise go undetected. Direct monitoring of the accumulation of activity in process streams generating solid radwaste, including demineralizers and filter streams, is a more precise approach. Nearly all of these streams are monitored by plant chemistry on a regular schedule to maintain water quality. This paper discusses viable options for developing the basis for characterization through process monitoring of the accumulation of activity at the point of generation. Special focus is on resin bed tracking and how process knowledge of these streams can be brought together to form a consistent and precise solid waste radioactivity inventory. Some of the specific points covered in this paper include the merger of the fission product release computer program, 3R-STAT, with the radwaste sample analysis computer program, SCAN4 to create 3R-SCAN, the importance of individual waste stream influences on the overall source term, and the use of historic sample data to develop scaling factors using an automated process. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Efficiency and Operational Cost Savings: A Framework for Automated Rooftop PV Placement

Residential energy consumers are charged based on a utility rate structure, such as net metering or feed-in tariff. To lower consumers' electricity bills, expensive batteries are deployed to reduce the electricity fed from the grid during peak hours. However, strategic photovoltaic (PV) panel placement enables the reduction of operational energy cost while considering the spatial feasibility and efficiency for hosting rooftop PV. In this paper, we present a framework to automatically identify the optimal location of rooftop PV panels on residential buildings. Our framework integrates multiple workflows, including energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to identify the ideal location of PV panels to balance the demand and supply at a building and community scale. These workflows are linked using the Grasshopper plug-in for Rhinoceros CAD software. The framework includes two different workflows, each satisfying a target for optimal PV placement: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency, where users aim to maximize energy generation, and (b) minimizing operational energy cost, where "best'' panels are selected considering utility rates for operational energy cost. Our framework is demonstrated in a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to generate the optimal PV placement for each of the two aforementioned targets. Results from the two workflows are compared to illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost. The developed workflows are introduced as tools within the Grasshopper plug-in to investigate the solar potential of rooftop PV panels while taking into account factors such as contextual shading, utility rate structures, and buildings' energy demand profiles.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

THERMAL ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF SELF-HEATING MOLDS USING LARGE-SCALE ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING FOR OUT-OF-AUTOCLAVE APPLICATIONS

Autoclave processing is a commonly used state-of-the-art fiber-reinforced composite manufacturing technology, albeit high capital cost, long cycle times and high energy consumption. Alternatively, out-of-autoclave processing reduces the initial and operating costs while producing composite structures with similar quality as that of autoclave parts. Additive Manufacturing (AM) the scaled-up molds for out-of-autoclave process using carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composite offers design flexibility, enhanced mechanical, and thermal properties in addition to reduction in weight and cost. However, heating of these molds using an oven is still expensive and necessitates an energy-efficient heating process. In this study, resistive heating through heating elements embedded within fiber reinforced composite molds is used as an efficient heating mechanism. The goal is to design wire embeddings and determine the optimal heat flux density to achieve a target uniform temperature of 1000C across the mold surface. To this end, numerical analyses were performed to evaluate the temperature distribution across the composite mold surface for a given wire placement and mold configuration. Constant thermal properties of the 20 wt.% short CF reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) were used in the thermal analysis. Time taken to reach the steady state temperature was also estimated. Design guidelines for wire embeddings were included to enable efficient manufacturing of fiber-reinforced composites through out-of-autoclave molds.

Pokkalla, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methodology for assessing the maximum potential impact of separations opportunities in industrial processes

Separation technologies currently used in U.S. manufacturing industries are estimated to account for more than 20% of plant energy consumption. However, accurately determining the impact of new separation technology solutions can sometimes be difficult, especially when evaluating a slate of new candidate separation technologies, each of which has its own separation performance, energy demand, and capital cost. In these cases, a typical approach is to assess each new separation technology by collecting performance and cost information and then using that information to develop a techno-economic analysis to identify overall benefits. While this approach is thorough, it can be time consuming and can hinder reaching a critical understanding of the potential of a given separation challenge, especially when there is no known solution. To address these issues, we developed an assessment methodology, using industrial screening processes, that can be used to better understand the potential impacts of addressing a given separation challenge. This paper presents an overview of our separation challenge stream assessment methodology. The methodology involves defining an “ideal” separator and deriving the associated minimum separation energy. The “ideal” separator represents the most optimistic outlook of a given opportunity so the maximum impact from existing and not-yet-developed solutions can be assessed. Using established biorefinery models, we applied the methodology to 10 different separation challenge streams from two different biomass conversion platforms to identify the type of information that can be obtained. Three of the ten challenge streams assessed had maximum possible cost savings predictions >20%, and associated reductions in process energy carbon intensity ranging from 0 to 54%. Two streams had cost and energy savings potential that were < 5%. Some of the opportunity drivers from the various assessments include higher product yields, reduction or elimination of downstream equipment, new co-products, and cost savings associated with raw materials and energy consumption. The information from these assessments can help guide the selection or development of new separation technology solutions based on the various potential factors that drive the projected benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Deposition to Encapsulation: Roll-to-roll manufacturing of organic light emitting devices for lighting (Final Report)

Organic light emitting devices (OLEDs) are promising solid state light sources due to their high efficiency, high color quality and flexible form factors. The key to enable low cost OLED lighting, is to rapidly fabricate thin film organic layers on a continuous flexible roll, called R2R processing. This project aims to investigate the feasibility of mass production of OLED lighting using the R2R process, from deposition to encapsulation. A high efficiency white OLED is fabricated on 10 cm-wide substrate rolls in a pilot R2R tool comprising of two different organic deposition: vacuum thermal evaporation (VTE) and organic vapor phase deposition (OVPD). A high quality encapsulation process to package OLEDs is demonstrated using an atomic layer deposition tool integrated to the R2R system without air exposure. The method to achieve ultrahigh deposition rates required by R2R processing is demonstrated by OVPD. Uniform organic semiconductor thin films grown by OVPD at rates as high as 50 Å/s are achieved. A comprehensive numerical model that is capable of simulating complex, multilayer WOLED structures is developed to provide an alternative to experimental iterations of OLED design and tests. A cost estimate on the R2R production of WOLEDs for lighting is developed. Assuming a WOLED luminance of 10 klm/m 2 , the cost of a WOLED light engine is anticipated to be $\$ 12.5$ /klm. With incremental reduction in material and driver costs and improved luminance, the cost of WOLED lighting can be reduced to $\$ 6.3$ /klm in the near term. These findings suggest OLED lighting can be volume manufactured by R2R vapor deposition methods with much reduced costs compared to current batch processing methods, potentially positioning WOLEDs for use in numerous premium lighting applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-layered Energy Management Framework for Extreme Fast Charging Stations Considering Demand Charges, Battery Degradation, and Forecast Uncertainties

To achieve a cost-effective and expeditious charging experience for extreme fast charging station (XFCS) owners and electric vehicle (EV) users, the optimal operation of XFCS is crucial. It is however challenging to simultaneously manage the profit from energy arbitrage, the cost of demand charges, and the degradation of a battery energy storage system (BESS) under uncertainties. This paper, therefore, proposes a multi-layered multi-time scale energy flow management framework for an XFCS by considering long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, monthly demand charges reduction, and BESS life degradation. In the proposed approach, an upper scheduling layer (USL) ensures the overall operation economy and yields optimal scheduling of the energy resources on a rolling horizon basis, thereby considering the long-term forecast errors. A lower dispatch layer (LDL) takes the short-term forecast errors into account during the real-time operation of the XFCS. Per the latest research, monthly demand charges can be as high as 90% of the total monthly bills for EV fast charging stations; to this end, this paper takes the first attempt at the reduction of demand charges cost by considering the trade-off between the energy cost and monthly demand charges. Contrasting literature, this work allocates an energy reserve in the BESS stored energy to deal with the impact of short-term forecast errors on the optimized real-time operation of the XFCS. Moreover, degradation modeling considers the trade-off between short-term benefits and long-term BESS life degradation. As a result, case studies and a comparative analysis prove the efficacy of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor-liquid metal battery system in energy markets: An evaluation of potential costs, technology, and policy impacts

Microreactors represent an emerging innovation in the nuclear industry; yet have been overshadowed by their high capital costs. With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), new opportunities have emerged to improve the economics of microreactor systems. This work examines liquid metal batteries (LMB) as a value-adding technology as part of microreactor-LMB systems within three U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO. Our investigation considers key uncertainties: the cost of microreactors, the performance of LMBs, and the eligible tax credit levels. To this end, we use a dispatch optimization to trace not only the changes in system economics but also to provide a granular picture of energy delivery within the systems. We find that even with favorable costs for microreactors, significant regional variations in the project sizing and returns exist across the markets. Our heuristic method identifies their non-electric application potentials beyond electricity and technical requirements to maximize returns. The results suggest that 12–39 % of reactor heat could be cost-effectively diverted to produce more valuable by-products in U.S. markets. Including the impacts of tax credits, we establish the outcomes of each provision with varying rates. Coupling an LMB to a microreactor consistently improves the net present value of a microreactor compared to its standalone operation. In conclusion, for reasonable assumed conditions, we quantify a heterogeneous impact of round-trip efficiency (RTE) and extended LMB service life across the three markets—a one-year extension in LMB service life is roughly equivalent to a 2.11 % improvement in RTE for ERCOT, 1.16 % for PJM, and 1.04 % for MISO.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final Report for FE0032098: Improving the cost-effectiveness of algal CO2 utilization by synergistic integration with power plant and wastewater treatment operations

The overall goal of this project was to demonstrate an engineering-scale open raceway pond algae cultivation system (approximately 180 m²), including the integration of technologies that utilized carbon dioxide (CO₂) from a coal-fired power plant and wastewater-derived nutrient inputs for cost-effective and environmentally friendly biomass production. The key advantages associated with the innovative algae cultivation system and its integration with wastewater treatment functions, as described herein, had been demonstrated in previous bench- and pilot-scale work by the project team partners. This project combined those approaches to maximize practical benefits and available synergies, resulting in a significant reduction in the net cost of producing algal biomass products. The primary target algal species for the project was Spirulina, which served as a high-protein content ingredient for food and animal feed. Spirulina was selected because it had already been approved by the FDA, was in use as a food ingredient, and commanded prices of up to $30/kg. It had a typical protein content of 50–75%, comparable to other high-protein concentrates, featured high digestibility without requiring pretreatment, and offered a high conversion ratio in animal feed applications. In addition, Spirulina had a relatively high content of the blue pigment phycocyanin, which could be extracted as a high-value co-product prior to using the remaining biomass for nutritional purposes.

Schideman, Lance [University of Illinois]↗
DOE OSTI2020

LandRAY Final Report

The overarching Project objective is to demonstrate the feasibility of using an innovative Power Take-Off (PTO) Module, to be used in the Columbia Power Technologies, Inc. (C·Power) utility-scale wave energy converter (WEC). The PTO Module uniquely combines a large-diameter, direct-drive, rotary permanent magnet generator; a patent-pending rail-bearing system; and a corrosion-resistant fiber-reinforced-plastic structure. The rail bearing system allows for: • A flexible non-rigid and low-cost generator frame as compared to conventional machines. • A reduction of air gap and consequently lower cost electromagnetic design • Ability to reduce costs by increasing diameter to much larger dimensions, while maintaining the small air gap. • A direct drive electro-mechanical solution that is the fastest and most precise approach for responding to the dynamic variability of forces from wave energy. The land-based test of the PTO Module (DDP1) will provide an important risk reduction phase, to demonstrate the reliability and feasibility of a large-diameter, small air-gap generator that is capable of delivering high efficiency, fault-tolerance and relatively simple "at-sea" maintenance capabilities – qualities that are essential for cost-effective wave energy devices. This is the first known test of such a system.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic analysis and environmental benefits of solar industrial process heating based on parabolic trough collectors

In this work, detailed techno-economic and environmental analyses are conducted for employing a 5 MWt parabolic trough-based solar industrial process heat (SIPH) plant in Salt Lake City, Utah. According to the results, an optimum solar multiple of 1.5 was determined, allowing the plant to generate annual thermal energy of 15389.24 MWth with a capacity factor of 35.1% and levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of $\$ 26.3$/MWth. Considering a 30% investment tax credit and a 30% reduction in the total installed cost could reduce the LCOH to $\$ 19.30$/MWth and $\$ 18.52$/MWth, respectively. Employing parabolic trough collectors could avoid emissions of 3,582,422.47 kg, 147.99 kg, 3,341.66 kg, and 14.32 kg for CO 2 , PM, NOx, and SO 2 , respectively per year compared to a natural gas-based plant. Further, it also caused an annual external cost savings of between $\$ 99,900$ and $\$ 357,004$. Including the external costs in the LCOH analysis shows that the SIPH plant is economically competitive with a natural gas-based plant, further demonstrating its value. A further comparison demonstrated the economic superiority of a parabolic trough-driven IPH plant over a photovoltaic-driven electric boiler plant. In summary, with reducing installed costs and providing incentives, parabolic trough-driven IPH plants will be an economically and environmentally viable option.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular hemodynamics

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in cardiovascular modeling pose challenges due to the large number of uncertain inputs and the significant computational cost of realistic three-dimensional simulations. Here, we propose an efficient uncertainty quantification framework utilizing a multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo (MLMF) estimator to improve the accuracy of hemodynamic quantities of interest while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This is achieved by leveraging three cardiovascular model fidelities, each with varying spatial resolution to rigorously quantify the variability in hemodynamic outputs. We employ two low-fidelity models (zero- and one-dimensional) to construct several different estimators. Our goal is to investigate and compare the efficiency of estimators built from combinations of these two low-fidelity model alternatives and our high-fidelity three-dimensional models. We demonstrate this framework on healthy and diseased models of aortic and coronary anatomy, including uncertainties in material property and boundary condition parameters. Our goal is to demonstrate that for this application it is possible to accelerate the convergence of the estimators by utilizing a MLMF paradigm. Therefore, we compare our approach to single fidelity Monte Carlo estimators and to a multilevel Monte Carlo approach based only on three-dimensional simulations, but leveraging multiple spatial resolutions. We demonstrate significant, on the order of 10 to 100 times, reduction in total computational cost with the MLMF estimators. We also examine the differing properties of the MLMF estimators in healthy versus diseased models, as well as global versus local quantities of interest. As expected, global quantities such as outlet pressure and flow show larger reductions than local quantities, such as those relating to wall shear stress, as the latter rely more heavily on the highest fidelity model evaluations. Similarly, healthy models show larger reductions than diseased models. In all cases, our workflow coupling Dakota’s MLMF estimators with the SimVascular cardiovascular modeling framework makes uncertainty quantification feasible for constrained computational budgets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-cryogenic direct air capture using adsorbents

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 is a key component in the portfolio of negative emissions technologies for mitigating global warming. However, even with the most potent amine sorbents, large-scale DAC deployment remains limited by high energy and capital costs. Recently, adsorbents relying on weak interactions with CO 2 have emerged as a potential alternative, thanks to their rapid adsorption kinetics and superior long-term stability, particularly under sub-ambient conditions (∼253 K). Despite these advantages, their use is hindered by the need for a water-removal process, location-specific constraints, and insufficient working capacity even in cold climates. In this study, we hypothesized that further reducing the adsorption temperature to a near-cryogenic range (160–220 K) could enable cost-effective DAC by utilizing the full potential of physisorbents. We primarily consider integrating DAC with a relatively untapped source of cold energy—liquified natural gas (LNG) regasification—to perform near-cryogenic DAC. From large-scale molecular simulations, Zeolite 13X and CALF-20 were identified as promising candidates. These materials were subsequently examined through experiments, including breakthrough analyses at 195 K. Their high CO 2 sorption capacity (4.5–5.5 mmol g −1 ), combined with a low desorption enthalpy and robust long-term stability, led to a threefold reduction in the levelized cost of capture (down to 68.2 USD per tonne CO 2 ). Estimates of the global LNG regasification resource suggest that LNG–DAC coupling could potentially enable the capture of 103–142 megatonnes of CO 2 annually as of 2050.

Kim, Seo-Yul [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗