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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2006

Global Aspects of Heliosphere-Geosphere Coupling

The magnetosphere serves both to hold off the solar wind and to couple it selectively to the Earth through the auroral zones. It has long been understood that the plasmasphere consists of geogenic plasmas that expand out of the sunlit low latitude ionosphere, but it was initially assumed that the hot low density plasma beyond the plasmasphere is largely of solar wind origin with a minor admixture of ionospheric plasmas, discovered via mass spectrometric observations in the early 70's. Since then, elaborate simulation models have been developed that have taken us from an era of cartoon physics to a new era of quantitative global comparisons between observations and theory. In most current global circulation models of the magnetosphere, the ionospheric load on the system is taken to lie exclusively in the thin F layer of the ionosphere. This layer is coupled with solar wind and magnetospheric plasmas via Maxwell stresses communicated by field aligned current systems, and with the thermosphere via ion-neutral charge exchange and Coulomb collisions. However, recent observations have shown us that ionospheric plasmas flow sporadically in various forms into the plasmasphere and up into the high latitude circulation cells of the outer magnetosphere, as driven by the solar wind and its variable intensity and magnetic field. Under some conditions, ionospheric material is observed to be the principal component of plasmas at the dayside magnetopause and in the plasma sheet and ring current regions. Given a global model of magnetospheric circulation, it is relatively straightforward to investigate the behaviors of ionospheric plasmas in response to solar wind drivers, and we report the results of such efforts here. We find that ionospheric plasmas dominate the plasma pressure in the magnetosphere in some regions, particularly when the solar wind is especially intense and-or southward directed. This result violates the assumption that the ionospheric load is confined to the F layer, and shows that the ionosphere is often an important dynamic element of the solar wind-ionosphere system throughout the magnetosphere, especially during larger geospace storms. This means that future global circulation models must account for ionospheric plasma inertia, heat capacity, and pressure, to be quantitatively credible.

Moore, Thomas E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Omics-to-Reactive-Transport (ORT): A workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Motivation: Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As `omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results: We propose a workflow (`Omics to Reactive Transport – ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBASE and PFLOTRAN. Live, interactive models, which incorporate the results from this narrative into a PFLOTRAN simulation, are available (without login) at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/.

Rubinstein, Rebecca L↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources III - Modeling the Impacts of Post-fire Restoration Methods on Vegetation Recovery in the Gila National Forest

In recent years, wildfires in New Mexico’s Gila National Forest have become increasingly common and more severe. Wildfires can have powerful impacts on hydrology and soil stability, including erosion, flooding, and debris-flows that threaten lives and infrastructure downstream. Vegetation restoration treatments like seeding and mulching can mitigate these effects and facilitate ecosystem recovery. Understanding the effectiveness of various restoration methods is vital to planning a cost-effective and successful post-fire recovery strategy. The immediate response to a fire on US Forest Service land is coordinated by a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team, a group responsible for mitigating immediate post-fire risks to human life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. This study created a proof-of-concept methodology for a decision-support tool designed to help BAER teams identify the restoration treatments most likely to succeed in a given burned area. Leveraging random forest regression, Google Earth Engine, and Landsat 7 and 8 Earth observations, this study modeled vegetation recovery after the 2013 Silver Fire for seeded areas, seeded/mulched areas, and untreated areas. Treatment type and initial burn severity were the largest drivers of vegetation recovery across the landscape. Seeded/mulched areas showed higher recovery levels than untreated areas three months post-fire, but by four years post-fire, treated and untreated areas displayed similar recovery levels. To produce a robust predictive tool for the Gila National Forest, the model should be trained on many more fires and incorporate post-fire weather conditions into the process. Such a model will help partners ensure efficient resource use and plan effective post-fire restoration strategies.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2014

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models' responses to CTW changes (Rotter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012). To fulfill this need, the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) (Ruane et al., 2014) was initiated within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). The submitted results from C3MP Phase 1 (February 15, 2013-December 31, 2013) are currently being analyzed. This chapter serves to present and update the C3MP protocols, discuss the initial participation and general findings, comment on needed adjustments, and describe continued and future development. AgMIP aims to improve substantially the climate, crop, and economic simulation tools that are used to characterize the agricultural sector, to assess future world food security under changing climate conditions, and to enhance adaptation capacity both globally and regionally. To understand better and improve the modeled crop responses, AgMIP has conducted detailed crop model intercomparisons at closely observed field sites for wheat (Asseng et al., 2013), rice (Li et al., in review), maize (Bassu et al., 2014), and sugarcane (Singels et al., 2013). A coordinated modeling exercise was one of the original motivations for AgMIP, and C3MP provides rapid estimation of crop responses to CO2, water, and temperature (CTW) changes, adding dimension and insight into the crop model intercomparisons, while facilitating interactions within the global community of modelers. C3MP also contributes a fast-track, multi-model climate sensitivity assessment for the AgMIP climate and crop modeling teams on Research Track 2 (Fig. 1), which seeks to understand the impact of projected climatic changes on crop production and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 2013; Ruane et al., 2014).

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2021

ORT: a workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Abstract Motivation Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As ‘omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results We propose a workflow (‘Omics to Reactive Transport—ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBase and PFLOTRAN. Availability and implementation Interactive models available at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/. Microbiological data available at NCBI via BioProject ID PRJNA576070. ORT Python code available at https://github.com/subsurfaceinsights/ort-kbase-to-pflotran. KBase narrative available at https://narrative.kbase.us/narrative/71260 or static narrative (no login required) at https://kbase.us/n/71260/258. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and implementation of vertical excursion FFA in the Zgoubi ray-tracing code

Vertical Fixed Field Accelerators (vFFAs) feature complex and highly non-linear magnetic fields, which require simulation codes allowing step-wise particle tracking. Methods to model the 3D magnetic field of scaling vFFAs have been developed in the ray-tracing code Zgoubi. The field modeling and particle tracking methods include the field non-linearities, the fringe fields, and the field superposition of neighboring magnets. The procedure implements the vFFA analytical field expressions, allowing design studies and parameter optimizations using the Zgoubi built-in fit method. The vFFA procedure has been applied to a ten-fold symmetry ring with a triplet focusing structure designed to accelerate protons from 3 MeV to 12 MeV and studied under the ISIS-II proton driver prototype project. Results from particle tracking in externally generated 3D semi-analytical field maps and the developed vFFA analytical model are shown to be in excellent agreement.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the drivers of ecosystem fluxes and water potential across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in an arid woodland

Dryland ecosystems occupy a vast swath of the terrestrial land surface and exert a sizeable impact on the cycling of carbon and water globally. These biomes are characterized by tightly coupled carbon and water cycles that respond rapidly to transient pulses in water availability. However, there exist many mechanistic uncertainties regarding the environmental drivers of, and linkages between, plant and ecosystem processes. Thus, drylands are often poorly represented in many vegetation and land surface models. An enhanced understanding of dryland ecosystem function is limited by the lack of long-term, co-located, and frequent measurements of plant and ecosystem processes. At a piñon-juniper woodland in southeastern Utah, USA, we collected a continuous dataset of meteorological conditions, soil water potential from surface to bedrock, tree water potential, and ecosystem carbon and water fluxes from eddy covariance. We found that predawn and midday tree water potential and daily ecosystem fluxes were highly sensitive to fluctuations in soil water availability, particularly in shallower layers, and that daytime variability in atmospheric drivers only loosely controlled these processes. The strong connections between shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and ecosystem fluxes occurred because of the dominant role of precipitation pulses in driving vegetation activity, as even small pulses of moisture stimulated shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and evapotranspiration for between 1 and 2 weeks. Carbon fluxes (net ecosystem exchange and gross primary productivity) were sensitive to precipitation pulses for longer, up to 3 weeks. Our results highlight that improved monitoring and sensing of shallow soil moisture can greatly enhance our understanding of dryland ecosystem function. Here, a better mechanistic understanding of the impacts of precipitation pulses is also needed to improve vegetation modeling of dryland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph network heterogeneity predicts interplant wake losses

Wind plants generate large-scale wakes, which can affect the performance of neighboring installations. Such wakes are challenging to estimate due to the inherent complexity in modeling wake interactions between large quantities of turbines at various distances. Weighted directed graph networks can inform complex models by linking turbine pairs into chains of upstream and downstream neighbors for a given wind direction. A novel interpretation of the graph network adjacency matrix is proposed where each element of the matrix represents the cumulative impact of upstream turbines on an individual. In this study, wake losses were estimated with an engineering wake model across a range of inflow conditions for nine parametric variations of a system containing two neighboring wind plants. The parametric nature of the study isolates turbine spacing within the plant, separation distance between plants, and wind direction as the main drivers of wake losses. Spatial heterogeneity is computed from the weighted average adjacency matrix of each plant arrangement. The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than wake modeling and does not require detailed turbine information or atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the weighted average adjacency matrix provides insight on the spatial organization of wake losses at various scales. Plant heterogeneity is correlated with wake losses within and among plants. Framing wind plant wake interaction in terms of graph network spatial heterogeneity provides an efficient approach for predicting wake losses within and among neighboring wind plants with applications to other complex systems where wake interactions are key factor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

BISON As-run AGR-3/4 Irradiation Test Predictions

BISON, a nuclear fuel performance application built using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library, was used to model the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 irradiation test using as-run physics and thermal hydraulics data. The AGR-3/4 test consists of the combined third and fourth planned irradiations of the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The AGR-3/4 test train consists of twelve separate and independently controlled and monitored capsules. Each capsule contains four compacts filled with both uranium oxycarbide (UCO) unaltered “driver” fuel particles and UCO designed-to-fail (DTF) fuel particles. The DTF fraction was specified to be 1×10-2. This report documents the calculations performed to predict the failure probability of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated driver fuel particles during the AGR-3/4 experiment on a single compact. This report will demonstrate the capabilities of BISON to model the complex AGR-3/4 irradiation test and identify further development needed to capture the fuel particle failure probability and source term on every compact for further comparison from post-irradiation examination (PIE) data. The calculations include the modeling of the AGR-3/4 irradiation that occurred from December 2011 to April 2014 in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) over a total of 10 ATR cycles including seven normal cycles, one low power cycle, one unplanned outage cycle, and one Power Axial Locator Mechanism (PALM) cycle.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Unraveling the Mechanisms and Implications of a Stronger Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.

AMOC↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites: Tools for Software Based Validation and Verification of Small Satellites

The NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3) is a suite of tools to aid in areas such as software development, integration test (IT), mission operations training, verification and validation (VV), and software systems check-out. NOS3 provides a software development environment, a multi-target build system, an operator interface-ground station, dynamics and environment simulations, and software-based hardware models. NOS3 enables the development of flight software (FSW) early in the project life cycle, when access to hardware is typically not available. For small satellites there are extensive lead times on many of the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components as well as limited funding for engineering test units (ETU). Considering the difficulty of providing a hardware test-bed to each developer tester, hardware models are modeled based upon characteristic data or manufacturers data sheets for each individual component. The fidelity of each hardware models is such that FSW executes unaware that physical hardware is not present. This allows binaries to be compiled for both the simulation environment, and the flight computer, without changing the FSW source code. For hardware models that provide data dependent on the environment, such as a GPS receiver or magnetometer, an open-source tool from NASA GSFC (42 Spacecraft Simulation) is used to provide the necessary data. The underlying infrastructure used to transfer messages between FSW and the hardware models can also be used to monitor, intercept, and inject messages, which has proven to be beneficial for VV of larger missions such as James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). As hardware is procured, drivers can be added to the environment to enable hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) testing. When strict time synchronization is not vital, any number of combinations of hardware components and software-based models can be tested. The open-source operator interface used in NOS3 is COSMOS from Ball Aerospace. For testing, plug-ins are implemented in COSMOS to control the NOS3 simulations, while the command and telemetry tools available in COSMOS are used to communicate with FSW. NOS3 is actively being used for FSW development and component testing of the Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat. As NOS3 matures, hardware models have been added for common CubeSat components such as Novatel GPS receivers, ClydeSpace electrical power systems and batteries, ISISpace antenna systems, etc. In the future, NASA IVV plans to distribute NOS3 to other CubeSat developers and release the suite to the open-source community.

Verification↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Instrument for the MAVEN Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Mission (MAVEN) will explore the variability in the planet's upper atmosphere and ionosphere that is dominated by interactions with the sun, specifically the high-energy photons in the soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths as well as interactions with the solar wind. Scientists will use MAVEN data to determine the current loss rate of volatile compounds from the Mars atmosphere, then extrapolate back in time in order to give historical estimations of state of the Mars atmosphere and climate, its ability to sustain liquid water, and the potential for the Martian habitability. The EUV instrument is critical in measuring the Space Weather driver of this atmospheric variability. It will directly observe a three EUV wavelength ranges and their variability due to solar flares (time scales of seconds to hours) as well as active region evolution (months), which will then act as proxies for a model to determine the entire 0.1-200 nm solar spectrum at all times during the MAVEN mission. These EUV measurements and models results will compliment the other instruments that will provide direct in-situ as well as remote sensing observations of the Martian atmospheric response to this solar driver. This presentation will be an introduction of this instrument and its science measurements and goals to the larger community, as well as a status report on its progress.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing the Payback and Profitability for Automated Heavy Duty Vehicle Platooning

Heavy duty vehicle platooning under highway operating conditions has been projected to provide significant fuel economy gains based on aerodynamic drag improvements of the platooning vehicles. Realizing these benefits and the economic viability under real-world operating conditions presents several challenges. The objective of this paper (the third as part of a series) is to analytically quantify the payback and profitability of heavy-duty vehicles platooning across the U.S. Interstate highway system. In this paper, a rigorous assessment of several factors that influence the platooning system payback for an end-user as well as the revenue potential for suppliers who may be utilizing an equipment lease model dependent on end-user savings, is presented. In this assessment key interactions explored include market adoption rates, platooning velocities, platoon-able daily mileage, platooning likelihood, variations in baseline powertrain fuel economy (diesel or electric), price of fuel (diesel or electricity), platooning fuel economy benefits, price of the added technology, and the impact of natural platooning due to traffic interactions. Further, the paper explores the economic impact of higher levels of vehicle automation for the trailing vehicles in the platoon, where extending the driver Hours of Service (HoS) may provide additional financial benefits. While the approach makes use of a limited fidelity vehicle analytical model for longitudinal dynamics and operations economics, the narrative provides application decision personnel with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architectural selection process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precision measurements of EFT parameters and BAO peak shifts for the Lyman- α forest

We present precision measurements of the bias parameters of the one-loop power spectrum model of the Lyman- α (Ly- α ) forest, derived within the effective field theory (EFT) of large-scale structure. We fit our model to the three-dimensional flux power spectrum measured from the ACCEL 2 hydrodynamic simulations. The EFT model fits the data with an accuracy of below 2% up to k = 2 h Mpc − 1 . Further, we analytically derive how nonlinearities in the three-dimensional clustering of the Ly- α forest introduce biases in measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) scaling parameters in radial and transverse directions. From our EFT parameter measurements, we obtain a theoretical error budget of Δ α ∥ = − 0.2 % ( Δ α ⊥ = − 0.3 % ) for the radial (transverse) parameters at redshift z = 2.0 . This corresponds to a shift of − 0.3 % (0.1%) for the isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We provide an estimate for the shift of the BAO peak for Ly- α -quasar cross-correlation measurements assuming analytical and simulation-based scaling relations for the nonlinear quasar bias parameters resulting in a shift of − 0.2 % ( − 0.1 % ) for the radial (transverse) dilation parameters, respectively. This analysis emphasizes the robustness of Ly- α forest BAO measurements to the theory modeling. We provide informative priors and an error budget for measuring the BAO feature—a key science driver of the currently observing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our work paves the way for full-shape cosmological analyses of Ly- α forest data from DESI and upcoming surveys such as the Prime Focus Spectrograph, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

de Belsunce, Roger (ORCID:0000000336604028)↗