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NASA NTRS2006

Overview of NASA Langley's Systems Analysis Capabilities

The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) has been in the systems analysis business line supporting National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aeronautics, exploration, space operations and science since the 1960 s. Our current organization structure is shown in Figure 1. SACD mission can be summed up in the following statements: 1. We conduct advanced concepts for Agency decision makers and programs. 2. We provide aerospace systems analysis products such as mission architectures, advanced system concepts, system and technology trades, life cycle cost and risk analysis, system integration and pre-decisional sensitive information. 3. Our work enables informed technical, programmatic and budgetary decisions. SACD has a complement of 114 government employees and approximately 50 on-site contractors which is equally split between supporting aeronautics and exploration. SACD strives for technical excellence and creditability of the systems analysis products delivered to its customers. The Directorate office is continuously building market intelligence and working with other NASA centers and external partners to expand our business base. The Branches strive for technical excellence and credibility of our systems analysis products by seeking out existing and new partnerships that are critical for successful systems analysis. The Directorates long term goal is to grow the amount of science systems analysis business base.

Cavanaugh, Stephen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ASCoT 3: Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification in Early Concept Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation

For mission planners and evaluators alike, value in cost models comes from a mean or median prediction, an understanding of the uncertainty on that prediction, and an understanding of model performance. Here we apply advanced statistical and machine learning methods to spacecraft flight software cost, effort, and SLOC estimation, and present the results in the latest version of the Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). We present in- and out-of-sample performance metrics for our models, each of which incorporate some amount of epistemic uncertainty. ASCoT, hosted on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) database via the Online NASA Space Estimation Tool (ONSET), was first showcased in 2016 as a number of analogy-based models and methods (kNN and Clustering) to support early project formulation. This ASCoT update improves upon the previous analogic methods by incorporating uncertainty in the data transformations. In particular, we use a Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis (NLPCA) to deal with ordinal data.

Robotic Spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS2002

An economic analysis of space solar power and its cost competitiveness as a supplemental source of energy for space and ground markets

Economic Growth has been historically associated with nations that first made use of each new energy source. There is no doubt that Solar Power Satellites is high as a potential energy system for the future. A conceptual cost model of the economics value of space solar power (SSP) as a source of complementary power for in-space and ground applications will be discussed. Several financial analysis will be offered based on present and new technological innovations that may compete with or be complementary to present energy market suppliers depending on various institutional arrangements for government and the private sector in a Global Economy. Any of the systems based on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas, and synthetic fuels share the problem of being finite resources and are subject to ever-increasing cost as they grow ever more scarce with drastic increase in world population. Increasing world population and requirements from emerging underdeveloped countries will also increase overall demand. This paper would compare the future value of SSP with that of other terrestrial renewable energy in distinct geographic markets within the US, in developing countries, Europe, Asia, and Eastern Europe.

electric power inter-regional electricity trading↗

NASA NTRS1990

Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS)-based fault tolerant avionics architecture for launch vehicles

An avionics architecture for the advanced launch system (ALS) that uses validated hardware and software building blocks developed under the advanced information processing system program is presented. The AIPS for ALS architecture defined is preliminary, and reliability requirements can be met by the AIPS hardware and software building blocks that are built using the state-of-the-art technology available in the 1992-93 time frame. The level of detail in the architecture definition reflects the level of detail available in the ALS requirements. As the avionics requirements are refined, the architecture can also be refined and defined in greater detail with the help of analysis and simulation tools. A useful methodology is demonstrated for investigating the impact of the avionics suite to the recurring cost of the ALS. It is shown that allowing the vehicle to launch with selected detected failures can potentially reduce the recurring launch costs. A comparative analysis shows that validated fault-tolerant avionics built out of Class B parts can result in lower life-cycle-cost in comparison to simplex avionics built out of Class S parts or other redundant architectures.

Lala, Jaynarayan H.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Computer program to assess impact of fatigue and fracture criteria on weight and cost of transport aircraft

A preliminary design analysis tool for rapidly performing trade-off studies involving fatigue, fracture, static strength, weight, and cost is presented. Analysis subprograms were developed for fatigue life, crack growth life, and residual strength; and linked to a structural synthesis module which in turn was integrated into a computer program. The part definition module of a cost and weight analysis program was expanded to be compatible with the upgraded structural synthesis capability. The resultant vehicle design and evaluation program is named VDEP-2. It is an accurate and useful tool for estimating purposes at the preliminary design stage of airframe development. A sample case along with an explanation of program applications and input preparation is presented.

Tanner, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Costs and benefits of composite material applications to a civil STOL aircraft

Costs and benefits of advanced composite primary airframe structure were studied to determine cost-effective applications to a civil STOL aircraft designed for introduction in the early 1980 time period. Applications were assessed by comparing costs and weights with a baseline metal aircraft which served as a basis of comparison throughout the study. Costs as well as weights were estimated from specific designs of principal airframe components, thus establishing a cost-data base for the study. Cost effectiveness was judged by an analysis that compared direct operating costs and return on investment of the composite and baseline aircraft. A systems operations analysis was performed to judge effects of the smaller, lighter composite aircraft. It was determined that broad applications of advanced composites to the airframe considered could be cost-effective, but this advantage is strongly influenced by structural configuration and several key cost categories.

Logan, T. R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Equivalent Mass versus Life Cycle Cost for Life Support Technology Selection

The decision to develop a particular life support technology or to select it for flight usually depends on the cost to develop and fly it. Other criteria - performance, safety, reliability, crew time, and risk - are considered, but cost is always an important factor. Because launch cost accounts for most of the cost of planetary missions, and because launch cost is directly proportional to the mass launched, equivalent mass has been used instead of cost to select life support technology. The equivalent mass of a life support system includes the estimated masses of the hardware and of the pressurized volume, power supply, and cooling system that the hardware requires. The equivalent mass is defined as the total payload launch mass needed to provide and support the system. An extension of equivalent mass, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), has been established for use in Advanced Life Support. A crew time mass-equivalent and sometimes other non-mass factors are added to equivalent mass to create ESM. Equivalent mass is an estimate of the launch cost only. For earth orbit rather than planetary missions, the launch cost is usually exceeded by the cost of Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E). Equivalent mass is used only in life support analysis. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is much more commonly used. LCC includes DDT&E, launch, and operations costs. Since LCC includes launch cost, it is always a more accurate cost estimator than equivalent mass. The relative costs of development, launch, and operations vary depending on the mission design, destination, and duration. Since DDT&E or operations may cost more than launch, LCC may give a more accurate cost ranking than equivalent mass. To be sure of identifying the lowest cost technology for a particular mission, we should use LCC rather than equivalent mass.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Exploration of a Mild Hybrid Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Concept

NASA has performed in-depth research and analysis into hybrid-electric aircraft concepts featuring high levels of electrification. Many of these concepts were found to be infeasible, whereas feasible designs were significantly heavier and more costly compared to conventional concepts. This study presents the development and analysis of an alternative mild hybrid concept that uses relatively low levels of stored electric energy applied strategically throughout the mission. The team researched several mild hybrid technologies, developed integrated aircraft models, and then evaluated the effects of these technologies on vehicle level performance metrics. Technologies explored in this study include the Turbine Electrified Energy Management system, electric taxi, electric climb assist, and replacing the auxiliary power unit with on-board electric energy storage. Key enabling technologies were energy storage devices that prioritized high power output over energy capacity and integrating electric motors with the shafts of the gas turbine engines. Significant performance improvements were observed when applying multiple technologies separately and in combination, with the most promising configuration incorporating all of them at once. Results for the mild hybrid configuration indicate an 8.2% reduction in block fuel, a 7.7% reduction in equivalent CO2 emissions, and a 3.5% increase in gross takeoff weight compared to a conventional baseline. Results of a cost analysis suggest the mild hybrid slightly reduces direct operating cost plus interest, which demonstrates that aircraft emissions can be significantly reduced without the cost increases associated with highly electrified concepts.

Turbine Electrified Energy Managment↗

NASA NTRS1975

National law enforcement telecommunications network

Alternative approaches are analyzed to a National Law Enforcement Telecommunications Network (NALECOM) designed to service all state-to-state and state-to-national criminal justice communications traffic needs in the United States. Network topology options were analyzed, and equipment and personnel requirements for each option were defined in accordance with NALECOM functional specifications and design guidelines. Evaluation criteria were developed and applied to each of the options leading to specific conclusions. Detailed treatments of methods for determining traffic requirements, communication line costs, switcher configurations and costs, microwave costs, satellite system configurations and costs, facilities, operations and engineering costs, network delay analysis and network availability analysis are presented. It is concluded that a single regional switcher configuration is the optimum choice based on cost and technical factors. A two-region configuration is competitive. Multiple-region configurations are less competitive due to increasing costs without attending benefits.

Reilly, N. B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Plumer, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis and evaluation of processes and equipment in tasks 2 and 4 of the low-cost solar array project

Several experimental and projected Czochralski crystal growing process methods were studied and compared to available operations and cost-data of recent production Cz-pulling, in order to elucidate the role of the dominant cost contributing factors. From this analysis, it becomes apparent that the specific add-on costs of the Cz-process can be expected to be reduced by about a factor of three by 1982, and about a factor of five by 1986. A format to guide in the accumulation of the data needed for thorough techno-economic analysis of solar cell production processes was developed.

Goldman, H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The case for a centralized repair depot for Space Shuttle

The first priority of the NSTS program is to make the Space Shuttle system fully operational and cost effective in providing routine access to space. In support of this priority an integrated logistics support system was planned, structured and is being implemented to support a launch-on-time goal of 95 percent. In achieving a 95 percent spares 'fill rate' in an environment of small fleet size, highly unique and high cost assets, significant spares cost can be incurred. A major portion of these costs are for the additional spares required when repair or acquisition times are lengthy. This paper provides a fundamental analysis of the costs and other factors involved in the spare and repair process and provides an optimized cost and process solution for the Space Shuttle program - a centralized repair depot located at KSC.

Enlow, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An assessment of finite-element modeling techniques for thick-solid/thin-shell joints analysis

The subject of finite-element modeling has long been of critical importance to the practicing designer/analyst who is often faced with obtaining an accurate and cost-effective structural analysis of a particular design. Typically, these two goals are in conflict. The purpose is to discuss the topic of finite-element modeling for solid/shell connections (joints) which are significant for the practicing modeler. Several approaches are currently in use, but frequently various assumptions restrict their use. Such techniques currently used in practical applications were tested, especially to see which technique is the most ideally suited for the computer aided design (CAD) environment. Some basic thoughts regarding each technique are also discussed. As a consequence, some suggestions based on the results are given to lead reliable results in geometrically complex joints where the deformation and stress behavior are complicated.

Min, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of structural perturbations in systems via cost decomposition methods

It has long been common practice to analyze linear dynamic systems by decomposing the total response in terms of individual contributions which are easier to analyze. Examples of this philosophy include the expansion of transfer functions using: (1) the superposition principle, (2) residue theory and partial fraction expansions, (3) Markov parameters, Hankel matrices, and (4) regular and singular perturbations. This paper summarizes a new and different kind of expansion designed to decompose the norm of the response vector rather than the response vector itself. This is referred to as "cost-decomposition' of the system. The notable advantages of this type of decomposition are: (a) easy application to multi-input, multi-output systems, (b) natural compatibility with Linear Quadratic Gaussian Theory, (c) applicability to the analysis of more general types of structural perturbations involving inputs, outputs, states, parameters. Property (c) makes the method suitable for problems in model reduction, measurement/actuator selections, and sensitivity analysis.

Skelton, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Present-value analysis: A systems approach to public decisionmaking for cost effectiveness

Decision makers within Governmental agencies and Congress must evaluate competing (and sometimes conflicting) proposals which seek funding and implementation. Present value analysis can be an effective decision making tool by enabling the formal evaluation of the effects of competing proposals on efficient national resource utilization. A project's costs are not only its direct disbursements, but its social costs as well. How much does it cost to have those funds diverted from their use and economic benefit by the private sector to the public project? Comparisons of competing projects' social costs allow decision makers to expand their decision bases by quantifying the projects' impacts upon the economy and the efficient utilization of the country's limited national resources. A conceptual model is established for the choosing of the appropriate discount rate to be used in evaluation decisions through the technique.

Herbert, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report 3: Design cost trade-off studies and recommendations

An analysis of the design and cost tradeoff aspects of the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) development is presented. The design/cost factors that affect a series of mission/system level concepts are discussed. The subjects considered are as follows: (1) spacecraft subsystem cost tradeoffs, (2) ground system cost tradeoffs, and (3) program cost summary. Tables of data are provided to summarize the results of the analyses. Illustrations of the various spacecraft configurations are included.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1985

GPACC program cost work breakdown structure-dictionary. General purpose aft cargo carrier study, volume 3

The results of detailed cost estimates and economic analysis performed on the updated Model 101 configuration of the general purpose Aft Cargo Carrier (ACC) are given. The objective of this economic analysis is to provide the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with information on the economics of using the ACC on the Space Transportation System (STS). The detailed cost estimates for the ACC are presented by a work breakdown structure (WBS) to ensure that all elements of cost are considered in the economic analysis and related subsystem trades. Costs reported by WBS provide NASA with a basis for comparing competing designs and provide detailed cost information that can be used to forecast phase C/D planning for new projects or programs derived from preliminary conceptual design studies. The scope covers all STS and STS/ACC launch vehicle cost impacts for delivering payloads to a 160 NM low Earth orbit (LEO).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1985

DACC program cost and work breakdown structure-dictionary. General purpose aft cargo carrier study, volume 2

Results of detailed cost estimates and economic analysis performed on the updated 201 configuration of the dedicated Aft Cargo Carrier (DACC) are given. The objective of this economic analysis is to provide the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with information on the economics of using the DACC on the Space Transportation System (STS). The detailed cost estimates for the DACC are presented by a work breakdown structure (WBS) to ensure that all elements of cost are considered in the economic analysis and related subsystem trades. Costs reported by WBS provide NASA with a basis for comparing competing designs and provide detailed cost information that can be used to forecast phase C/D planning for new projects or programs derived from preliminary conceptual design studies. The scope covers all STS and STS/DACC launch vehicle cost impacts for delivering an orbital transfer vehicle to a 120 NM low Earth orbit (LEO).

Source record↗