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At least 73 records · Page 4

Applying Machine Learning to Predict Alaskan Ionospheric Irregularities

In this work several machine-learning (ML) techniques for predicting ionospheric irregularities in the northern auroral zone were tested. The techniques include Ridge Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM), Classification Neural Network (CNN), Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (ACNN), and LSTM Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (LACNN). These techniques were tested with the rate of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data collected during 2008 and 2009 from a geodetic station in Fairbanks, Alaska (64.98°N, 147.50°W), which is in the auroral zone. Using ROTI data with the ML techniques, experiments were conducted to reach two goals: (1) examine what space weather measurements present good correlation with ROTI so that they may be helpful in ML-based prediction of ionospheric irregularities in the polar region; (2) predict ROTI hours and days ahead by training the neural network models with historical ROTI data alone. The Ridge Regression experiments indicate that a combination of measurements of local geomagnetic horizontal components, geomagnetic SYM-H index, 3-hour Kp and ap indices, and F10.7 solar flux index appears to be more correlated to the single-site ROTI measurements than other parameters. The neural network (NN) experiments show that although the LACNN model allows for predictions of non-irregularity and irregularity conditions defined by ROTI levels up to 3 hours in advance, with an overall accuracy ≥ 92%, a number of irregularity events can still be missed. Hence, further development is needed to reduce the number of missed events. In this paper, the models, data processing, model performance, prediction results, and potential applications are presented.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗

Langley facility for tests at Mach 7 of subscale, hydrogen-burning, airframe-integratable, scramjet models

Modifications to a 20-megawatt arc-heated facility for testing a hydrogen-burning, airframe-integratable, subscale, scramjet model are described. Arc-heated flow is mixed with unheated air to furnish a test flow duplicating Mach 7 flight. (Stagnation temperature is 2220 K.) Modifications to the commercially available heater to improve survivability and smoothness are described. Pitot profiles show uniform flow and a slightly thinner nozzle boundary layer than predicted. Comparison of the tunnel boundary layer, which will be ingested by the engine model, with the boundary layer that a flight engine might ingest from its vehicle forebody shows a difference in the density distribution through the boundary layer. Calculations of wall heating and transient wall temperatures of the engine model show that for a 30-sec burn, the heat sink model requires cooling at selected locations to avoid thermal-stress, cycle-life problems. Model performance predictions show that fuel equivalence ratio and nozzle exit area both have large effects on thrust. Average inlet entrance Mach number (as affected by boundary-layer ingestion) has little effect on thrust.

Boatright, W. B.↗

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ideal MHD induced temperature flattening in spherical tokamaks

This paper extends the analysis first presented in Jardin et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 128, 245001 (2022)] to more thoroughly examine the stability of spherical torus equilibrium to ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) infernal modes and their nonlinear consequences. Here we demonstrate that in a 3D resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a NSTX discharge, anomalous transport can occur due to these instabilities. Here we generate a family of equilibrium of differing β and use this to show that these instabilities could explain the experimentally observed flattening of the electron temperature profile at modest β. The modes studied in this paper are found to occur with poloidal mode number m and toroidal mode number n when the ratio m/ n is in the range of 1.2–1.5, when the central safety factor is in this range or slightly lower, and when the central region has very low magnetic shear. Our analysis gives some insight as to why the unstable linear growth rates are oscillatory functions of the toroidal mode number n. We present a simulation of an initially stable configuration that passes through a stability boundary at a critical β as it is heated. We also show that a particular NSTX discharge is unstable to these modes over a timescale of several hundred ms. We conclude that these modes must be taken into account when performing predictive modeling. An appendix shows that similar modes can be found in R / a = 4 tokamaks for certain q-profiles and β values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

LLEPE

LLEPE (liquid-liquid equilibrium parameter estimator) is a tool for estimating thermodynamic parameters like standard enthalpies, standard molar volumes and Pitzer coefficients, by combining Gibbs minimization with regression to multiphase equilibrium isotherm data. It also includes visualization tools to access data quality and prediction model performance.

ILOEJE, CHUKWUNWIKE↗

An entree for large space antennas

Some of the possible areas of application for large antennas placed in space are discussed, and some initial design concepts for various antenna proposals are described. Applications include rural mobile communications, an orbiting deep space relay station, submillimeter radio astronomy, and multispectral radiometry of earth surface features. As a first step in developing the needed technology, a deployable 30-m antenna with 1-mm surface accuracy is proposed. Flight experience with such an antenna system would enable validation of performance prediction models. The 30-m-diam mesh deployable-defurlable antenna experiment would be carried out with the shuttle.

Powell, R. V.↗

High-pressure LOX/hydrocarbon preburners and gas generators

The objective of the program was to conduct a small scale hardware test program to establish the technology base required for LOX/hydrocarbon preburners and gas generators. The program consisted of six major tasks; Task I reviewed and assessed the performance prediction models and defined a subscale test program. Task II designed and fabricated this subscale hardware. Task III tested and analyzed the data from this hardware. Task IV analyzed the hot fire results and formulated a preliminary design for 40K preburner assemblies. Task V took the preliminary design and detailed and fabricated three 40K size preburner assemblies, one each fuel-rich LOX/CH, and LOX/RP-1 and one oxidizer rich LOX/CH4. Task VI delivered these preburner assemblies to MSFC for subsequent evaluation.

Huebner, A. W.↗

A study of the stress wave factor technique for evaluation of composite materials

The acousto-ultrasonic approach for nondestructive evaluation provides a measurement procedure for quantifying the integrated effect of globally distributed damage characteristic of fiber reinforced composite materials. The evaluation procedure provides a stress wave factor that correlates closely with several material performance parameters. The procedure was investigated for a variety of materials including advanced composites, hybrid structure bonds, adhesive bonds, wood products, and wire rope. The research program focused primarily on development of fundamental understanding and applications advancements of acousto-ultrasonics for materials characterization. This involves characterization of materials for which detection, location, and identification of imperfections cannot at present be analyzed satisfactorily with mechanical performance prediction models. In addition to presenting definitive studies on application potentials, the understanding of the acousto-ultrasonic method as applied to advanced composites is reviewed.

Duke, J. C., Jr.↗

Performance prediction of the Planck sorption cooler and initial validation

Two continuous operation 18 K/20 K sorption coolers are being developed by JPL for the ESA Planck mission to provide about 200 mW of cooling at 18 K and 1.4 W at 20 K. A detailed performance prediction model has been developed to support the design process and to evaluate the results of a prototype testing.

sorption cryocoolers thermal model analyses metal ↗

WFIRST CGI: Prism and Polarizer Characterization Modes

As part of its technology demonstration, the WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) will demonstrate point source spectroscopy and polarization measurements of disks. The specific implementation of spectroscopy is a zero-deviation Amici prism and slit to be placed on the planet after high contrast has been achieved by CGI. The polarization optics are a set of Wollaston prisms so that orthogonal polarization states can be measured simultaneously. The CGI spectral characterization mode, being designed and built and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), has a spectral resolution of R50 and is designed to accommodate a 15% bandpass spanning 610-785nm. In order to recover Stokes information, there are two sets of Wollaston prisms clocked 45 degrees with respect to one another with each measurement taken in series. The Wollaston design and optical elements are a contribution by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency, with final alignment and testing being done at GSFC. The spectroscopy mode is designed to target Methane absorption features around 730nm, keeping the spectral resolution as low as possible to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and hence reduce detection time. We highlight the requirements for these modes and address the challenge of on-orbit spectral calibration for a deployable slit in the presence of pointing drifts. Of unique interest is how the observatory error budget couples into good stellar spectrum calibration and subsequent speckle subtraction. We also provide further detail on the optomechanical design, its stability based on thermal and structural predictions, modeled performance, and operations concept. These performance metrics are simulated to demonstrate how a slit located at an arbitrary field point is homed onto the planet and converted to a calibrated spectrum.

Tyler D Groff↗

Applications and Development Work for Digital Image Correlation Using High Speed Cameras

NASA, Army, and industry partners are working to advance optical measurement techniques used in highly dynamic rocket engine and missile test environments. This allows for direct component data collection during test and flight environments, significantly reduced analysis time, and associated cost savings. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) uses calibrated stereo cameras to collect three-dimensional (3-D) displacements, strains, and acceleration data by referencing a stochastic speckle pattern applied to the test object. These optical measurement techniques provide significantly improved data resulting in better performance predictions, model validation, and information about components during hot-fire tests and test flights.

Rachel Paden↗

Fuel Bonding and its Impact on Axial Gas Communication Behavior in Light-Water Reactor Fuel Rods

Axial gas communication concerns the flow along the axial axis of nuclear fuel rods during ramp and loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During power ramps, the higher linear heat generation rate may cause fuel-to-clad gap closure that may prevent transport of released fission gases to the plenum. Upon reduction in power the gas then can communicate to the plenum. This phenomenon has been experimentally observed by short power dips during ramp experiments completed at the Risø reactor. At higher burnups it is observed that the UO2 fuel and Zircaloy cladding forms a chemical bond. This bond results in complete closure of the gap. When these high burnup rods are subjected to a LOCA, the bond has implications on both the mechanical response (i.e., ballooning) of the cladding and subsequent fuel relocation and axial gas communication. In the LOCA scenario, gas communication is of interest in two different regimes: 1) pre-rupture communication from the plenum towards the lower pressure ballooning area and 2) the post-rupture depressurization of the plenum to the external system pressure. In both regimes the presence of a fuel-to-cladding bond will impact the rate of depressurization. In this work we present a fuel-to-clad bonding model that is coupled to an existing axial gas communication model framework in the BISON fuel performance code. The effect of considering the bond on fuel performance modeling predictions is presented through comparisons to existing experimental data. Experiments considered include several rods from the Halden IFA-650 test series. An evaluation on a full-length rod that explores the combined effect of plenum size and bonding status on axial gas communication behavior is also presented.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Model for Predicting the Performance of Planetary Suit Hip Bearing Designs

Designing a space suit is very complex and often requires difficult trade-offs between performance, cost, mass, and system complexity. During the development period of the suit numerous design iterations need to occur before the hardware meets human performance requirements. Using computer models early in the design phase of hardware development is advantageous, by allowing virtual prototyping to take place. A virtual design environment allows designers to think creatively, exhaust design possibilities, and study design impacts on suit and human performance. A model of the rigid components of the Mark III Technology Demonstrator Suit (planetary-type space suit) and a human manikin were created and tested in a virtual environment. The performance of the Mark III hip bearing model was first developed and evaluated virtually by comparing the differences in mobility performance between the nominal bearing configurations and modified bearing configurations. Suited human performance was then simulated with the model and compared to actual suited human performance data using the same bearing configurations. The Mark III hip bearing model was able to visually represent complex bearing rotations and the theoretical volumetric ranges of motion in three dimensions. The model was also able to predict suited human hip flexion and abduction maximums to within 10% of the actual suited human subject data, except for one modified bearing condition in hip flexion which was off by 24%. Differences between the model predictions and the human subject performance data were attributed to the lack of joint moment limits in the model, human subject fitting issues, and the limited suit experience of some of the subjects. The results demonstrate that modeling space suit rigid segments is a feasible design tool for evaluating and optimizing suited human performance. Keywords: space suit, design, modeling, performance

Cowley, Matthew S.↗

Optimal control model predictions of system performance and attention allocation and their experimental validation in a display design study

The influence of different types of predictor displays in a longitudinal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) hover task is analyzed in a theoretical study. Several cases with differing amounts of predictive and rate information are compared. The optimal control model of the human operator is used to estimate human and system performance in terms of root-mean-square (rms) values and to compute optimized attention allocation. The only part of the model which is varied to predict these data is the observation matrix. Typical cases are selected for a subsequent experimental validation. The rms values as well as eye-movement data are recorded. The results agree favorably with those of the theoretical study in terms of relative differences. Better matching is achieved by revised model input data.

Johannsen, G.↗

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Charge-coupled-device X-ray detector performance model

A model that predicts the performance characteristics of CCD detectors being developed for use in X-ray imaging is presented. The model accounts for the interactions of both X-rays and charged particles with the CCD and simulates the transport and loss of charge in the detector. Predicted performance parameters include detective and net quantum efficiencies, split-event probability, and a parameter characterizing the effective thickness presented by the detector to cosmic-ray protons. The predicted performance of two CCDs of different epitaxial layer thicknesses is compared. The model predicts that in each device incomplete recovery of the charge liberated by a photon of energy between 0.1 and 10 keV is very likely to be accompanied by charge splitting between adjacent pixels. The implications of the model predictions for CCD data processing algorithms are briefly discussed.

Bautz, M. W.↗