Results for “consequence management” — Page 4

NASA NTRS2018

Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann↗

NASA NTRS2022

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-The-Material” and “The-Material” Paradigms

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new material characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. In 2016 NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study (which appeared in 2018) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated (V & V) computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, components, and systems. Consequently, the development of a robust information management system that incorporates (across the full life cycle) both experimental (real data) and virtual data resulting from the application of various simulation tools (at single or multiple length scales), therefore enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing – internal structure – property – performance envelope, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality, and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. This is particularly true when attempting to merge ICME practices with recent additive manufacturing technology which will enable production of the resulting 2040 Vision material and structural designs. At NASA Glenn Research Center we are exploring the future of material science through the use of novel characterization methodologies, high performance computing, and recently an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Herein, recent efforts to incorporate an Application Table within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Granta MI database is presented. The goal is to provide a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked so as to marry the “design the-material” and the “design-with-material” paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures by providing a central location that links material processing at various length scales to the application’s performance requirements. This paper discusses the specifics of this Application Table as well as best practices and key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the 2040 Vision integrated materials and structures ecosystem. Furthermore, it presents the intended role of the Application Table in the future of ICME design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, showing the need for a well-established framework that can successfully bridge the gap between the design “the material” and design “with-the-material” paradigms.

Materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-the-Material” and “the-Material”

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new material characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. In 2016 NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study (which appeared in 2018) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated (V & V) computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, components, and systems. Consequently, the development of a robust information management system that incorporates (across the full life cycle) both experimental (real data) and virtual data resulting from the application of various simulation tools (at single or multiple length scales), therefore enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing – internal structure – property – performance envelope, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality, and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. This is particularly true when attempting to merge ICME practices with recent additive manufacturing technology which will enable production of the resulting 2040 Vision material and structural designs. At NASA Glenn Research Center we are exploring the future of material science through the use of novel characterization methodologies, high performance computing, and recently an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Herein, recent efforts to incorporate an Application Table within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Granta MI database is presented. The goal is to provide a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked so as to marry the “design the-material” and the “design-with-material” paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures by providing a central location that links material processing at various length scales to the application’s performance requirements. This paper discusses the specifics of this Application Table as well as best practices and key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the 2040 Vision integrated materials and structures ecosystem. Furthermore, it presents the intended role of the Application Table in the future of ICME design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, showing the need for a well-established framework that can successfully bridge the gap between the design “the material” and design “with-the-material” paradigms.

Materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Risk Management (RM) on JPL Projects

Risk: the combination of the likelihood of occurance and the severity of the consequences of the occurance of an event (usually undesirable).

Risk Management JPL Projects↗

NASA NTRS2002

Three Insights About Change

Managers need to develop credibility, and need to base it upon new managerial accomplishments rather than previous ones. New and exciting jobs in management are challenging, but can lead to personal growth. Personnel who are afraid of potential negative consequences resulting from administrative changes are a hindrance to projects. An approval-seeking management style almost always fails.

Little, Terry↗

NASA NTRS2023

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Spectrum Management Concept for Future NAS Communications

With the growth of aviation operations and the emergence of new entrants into the National Airspace System, there has been an increasing demand for aeronautical communications. However, the existing VHF/UHF frequency allocations for NAS operations have become increasingly scarce and unable to support the projected growth in demand. While traditional approaches to address the spectrum scarcity issue (such as reduction of channel bandwidth) have provided some relief, there is a need for a more scalable and sustainable solution. Consequently, NASA is investigating a new approach to spectrum management within the NAS using Artificial Intelligence and other advanced technologies. The concept considers both air-ground and air-air communication networks with the anticipated outcome that the proposed concept will meet the spectrum needs of future NAS communications.

Rafael Daniel Apaza↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Spectrum Management Concept for Future NAS Communications

With the growth of aviation operations and the emergence of new entrants into the National Airspace System, there has been an increasing demand for aeronautical communications. However, the existing VHF/UHF frequency allocations for NAS operations have become increasingly scarce and unable to support the projected growth in demand. While traditional approaches to address the spectrum scarcity issue (such as reduction of channel bandwidth) have provided some relief, there is a need for a more scalable and sustainable solution. Consequently, NASA is investigating a new approach to spectrum management within the NAS using Artificial Intelligence and other advanced technologies. The concept considers both air-ground and air-air communication networks with the anticipated outcome that the proposed concept will meet the spectrum needs of future NAS communications

Rafael D. Apaza↗

DOE OSTI2025

A terminology for scientific workflow systems

The term “scientific workflow” has evolved over the last two decades to encompass a broad range of compositions of interdependent compute tasks and data movements. It has also become an umbrella term for processing in modern scientific applications. Today, many scientific applications can be considered as workflows made of multiple dependent steps, and hundreds of workflow systems have been developed to manage and run these scientific workflows. However, no turnkey solution has emerged from the field to address the diversity of scientific processes and the infrastructure on which they are supposed to be implemented. Instead, new research problems requiring the execution of scientific workflows with some novel feature often lead to the development of an entirely new workflow system. A direct consequence of this situation is that many existing workflow management systems (WMSs) share some salient features, offer similar functionalities, and can manage the same categories of workflows but at the same time also have some distinct capabilities that can be important for specific applications. This situation makes researchers who develop workflows face the complex question of selecting a WMS. This selection can be driven by technical considerations, to find the system that is the most appropriate for their application and for the computing and storage resources available to them, or other factors such as reputation, adoption, strong community support, or long-term sustainability. To address this problem, a group of WMS developers and practitioners joined their efforts to produce a community-based terminology of WMSs. This paper summarizes their findings and introduces this new terminology to characterize WMSs. Furthermore, this terminology is composed of fives axes: workflow structure and characteristics, composition, orchestration, data management, and metadata capture. Each axis comprises several concepts that capture the prominent features of WMSs. Based on this terminology, this paper also presents a classification of 23 existing WMSs according to the proposed axes and terms.

Community-based terminology↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor↗

NASA NTRS1972

The ATS F&G systems reliability program.

Assurance of reliability, quality, and proper testing requires a large coordinating effort and a means for connecting the various areas involved. All parts used on the spacecraft are required to meet strict specifications and consequently must be approved by the systems reliability manager. The parts program has access to a computer data bank into which all information concerning nonstandard parts approval requests has been stored. Through the data bank, the system collects and distributes timely information concerning quality and reliability to all departments that may be concerned.

Doyle, H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Multiple man-machine interfaces

The multiple man machine interfaces inherent in military pilot training, their social implications, and the issue of possible negative feedback were explored. Modern technology has produced machines which can see, hear, and touch with greater accuracy and precision than human beings. Consequently, the military pilot is more a systems manager, often doing battle against a target he never sees. It is concluded that unquantifiable human activity requires motivation that is not intrinsic in a machine.

Stanton, L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The internal dynamics of slowly rotating biological systems

The structure and the dynamics of biological systems are complex. Steady gravitational forces that act on organisms cause hydrostatic pressure gradients, stress in solid components, and ordering of movable subsystems according to density. Rotation induces internal motion; it also stresses and or deforms regions of attachment and containment. The disrupted gravitationally ordered layers of movable entities are replaced by their orbital movements. New ordering geometries may arise also, especially if fluids of various densities occur. One novel result obtained concerns the application of scheduled variation of clinostat rotation rates to the management of intracellular particle trajectories. Rotation and its consequences are discussed in terms of scaling factors for parameters such as time, derived from mathematical models for simple rotating mechanical systems.

Kessler, John O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data

North American vegetation has been discovered to be a net carbon sink, with atypical behavior of drawing down more carbon from the atmosphere during the past century. It has been suggested that the Northern Hemisphere will respond favorably to climate warming by enhancing productivity and reducing the impact of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere. Many investigations are currently underway to understand and identify mechanisms of storage so they might be actively managed to offset carbon emissions which have detrimental consequences to the functioning of ecosystems and human well being. This paper used a time series of satellite data from multiple sensors at multiple resolutions over the past thlrty years to identify and understand mechanisms of change to vegetation productivity throughout North America. We found that humans had a marked impact to vegetation growth in half of the six selected study regions which cover greater than two million km2. We found climatic influences of increasing temperatures, and longer growing seasons with reduced snow cover in the northern regions of North America with forest fire recovery in the Northern coniferous forests of Canada. The Mid-latitudes had more direct land cover changes induced by humans coupled with climatic influences such as severe drought and altered production strategies of rain-fed agriculture in the upper Midwest, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the lower Midwest, and insect outbreaks followed by subsequent logging in the upper Northeast. Vegetation growth over long time periods (20+ years) in North America appears to be associated with long term climate change but most of the marked changes appear to be associated with climate variability on decadal and shorter time scales along with direct human land cover conversions. Our results document regional land cover land use change and climatic influences that have altered continental scale vegetation dynamics in North America.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Managing the Digital Thread for Structural Applications With Fit for Purpose Materials

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Consequently, at NASA Glenn Research Center a robust information management system that manages the digital thread across the full material life (i.e., capture, analysis, maintenance, and dissemination of data) cycle directed at the design of ‘fit-for-purpose materials’ is under development. To this end the Application Table has been incorporated within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Information Management framework within the ANSYS Granta MI tool. The Application Table provides a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked to marry the “design-the-material” (structural engineering) and the “design-with-material” (material science) paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures. In additional several associated toolsets, specifically: AIMAOS (Automated Information Management Across Organizations and Scales), Py MILab, and JARIMIS (Just A Rather Intelligent Material Interrogation System) are also under development to assist in the judicious automation of this process. AIMOAS offers users an interactive graphical user interface for connecting material information management systems with both commercial and in-house simulation tools at various length scales to enable such automation in the handoff across scales and maintenance of material digital twins and the digital thread. Py MILab, is an automatic framework for the capture, analysis, maintenance, and storage of material test data. Py MILab uses a modular approach for capturing raw data, analyzing the data, and storing the data in a database, interfaced by neutral file structures, to promote plug-and-play capabilities for various analysis types. Finally, JARIMIS is an expert system that integrates various materials informatics tools (e.g., MicroNet, Surrogate ML models, ANSYS Granta MI, etc.) to enable inverse design of materials and facilitate the application of machine learning (ML) and data science with human in the loop decision making to rapidly discover and optimize new materials.

Digital Transformation↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Integrated Mode Management Interface

Mode management is the processes of understanding the character and consequences of autoflight modes, planning and selecting the engagement, disengagement and transitions between modes, and anticipating automatic mode transitions made by the autoflight system itself. The state of the art is represented by the latest designs produced by each of the major airframe manufacturers, the Boeing 747-400, the Boeing 777, the McDonnell Douglas MD-11, and the Airbus A320/A340 family of airplanes. In these airplanes autoflight modes are selected by manipulating switches on the control panel. The state of the autoflight system is displayed on the flight mode annunciators. The integrated mode management interface (IMMI) is a graphical interface to autoflight mode management systems for aircraft equipped with flight management computer systems (FMCS). The interface consists of a vertical mode manager and a lateral mode manager. Autoflight modes are depicted by icons on a graphical display. Mode selection is accomplished by touching (or mousing) the appropriate icon. The IMMI provides flight crews with an integrated interface to autoflight systems for aircraft equipped with flight management computer systems (FMCS). The current version is modeled on the Boeing glass-cockpit airplanes (747-400, 757/767). It runs on the SGI Indigo workstation. A working prototype of this graphics-based crew interface to the autoflight mode management tasks of glass cockpit airplanes has been installed in the Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator of the CSSRF of NASA Ames Research Center. This IMMI replaces the devices in FMCS equipped airplanes currently known as mode control panel (Boeing), flight guidance control panel (McDonnell Douglas), and flight control unit (Airbus). It also augments the functions of the flight mode annunciators. All glass cockpit airplanes are sufficiently similar that the IMMI could be tailored to the mode management system of any modern cockpit. The IMMI does not replace the functions of the FMCS control and display unit. The purpose of the INMI is to provide flight crews with a shared medium in which they can assess the state of the autoflight system, take control actions on it, reason about its behavior, and communicate with each other about its behavior. The design is intended to increase mode awareness and provide a better interface to autoflight mode management. This report describes the IMMI, the methods that were used in designing and developing it, and the theory underlying the design and development processes.

Hutchins, Edwin↗