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2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Demonstrating the data center as a flexible grid asset using a C-HIL setup

Increasing data center demand is outpacing grid infrastructure development. Artificial intelligence workloads and hyperscale cloud growth are creating unprecedented demand for power, while traditional grid expansion faces multiyear development timelines. Verrus is developing an innovative datacenter solution for this challenge, data centers that act as active grid-supportive assets rather than passive loads. Our approach integrates a novel grid-aware power flow management system with battery energy storage systems(BESS) into a microgrid-controlled, medium-voltage power distribution architecture that delivers critical capabilities, such as: * Fast response to grid disturbances such over/ under voltage or over/ under frequency * Demand flexibility that can service requests from the utility within 10 s * Uninterrupted transition to islanded operation during grid outages * Continuous uptime assurance for compute loads while maintaining all customer service level agreements. Through Verrus' strategic partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), these capabilities were validated using NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) virtual emulation environment to model a 70-MW grid-interactive data center. This paper outlines the design, methodology, and results of this emulated deployment, demonstrating that data centers can provide both critical load resilience and ancillary grid support without compromising uptime requirements. Specifically, we present a digital real time simulation of a 70 MW data center integrated with a physical microgrid controller, and demonstrate the data center response in the event of a grid voltage and frequency event, utility demand response request and utility outage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

HP-FLEX: Field demonstration of the semantics-driven configuration of a Model Predictive Control system to make heat pumps flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo

HP-FLEX: Field Demonstration of the Semantics-Driven Configuration of a Model Predictive Control System to Make Heat Pumps Flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo

Virtual Power Plant Profiles and Inventory

Increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), growing quantities of renewable energy on the grid, and load growth from buildings, industry, and data centers are driving the need for increased demand flexibility and solutions to reliably and cost-effectively balance electricity supply and demand. In order to deploy DERs on a similar scale as conventional supply-side resources, utilities and state decision-makers are exploring a range of programmatic approaches and market designs, including Virtual Power Plants (VPP). Based on interviews with more than twenty subject matter experts on VPPs, the Insights into Scaling Virtual Power Plants report and appendix outlines actions that utilities and regulators can take to expand VPPs, organized around successful VPP designs, deployment, and operation. The companion report, Virtual Power Plant Profiles and Inventory describes three conceptual profiles that can be used as a starting point to facilitate clear discussions among regulators, utilities, solution providers, and stakeholders about various VPP strategies. It also includes details on more than 790 demand response programs and net energy metering solar plus battery programs, and 180 VPP programs. The Inventory is provided below as a separate file.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data

Optimizing Grid-interactive Efficient Building Designs with Stacked Value Streams

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are those characterized by the combination of energy efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communications to not only deliver greater affordability and comfort to buildings, but also help utilities manage grid operations and lower system costs. This paper presents an innovative techno-economic assessment framework to effectively examine different GEB design options, explore various use cases, define technically achievable benefits, and thereby assist in informed decision-making. In particular, building load flexibility, thermal storage, and battery energy storage are considered. Advanced optimal dispatch problem is formulated to maximize the stacked value streams from multiple, competing use cases, subject to the physical capabilities and operational flexibility associated with different designs and configurations. Comprehensive case studies were performed for a real-world building to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different GEB designs and offer in-depth insights. It was found that the proposed assessment method could effectively capture the costs and benefits linked to each GEB design option. Furthermore, the study revealed that outage mitigation and demand response are the two most significant sources of benefits for GEBs.

Ma, Xu

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Energy Efficiency

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief focuses on energy efficiency benefits, and builds on prior analysis from Berkeley Lab’s Cost of Saved Energy database. We show that energy efficiency remains a low-cost energy and capacity resource; the levelized cost of saving energy for the programs included in the analysis is $\$0.02$/kilowatt-hour and the cost of saving peak demand is less $\$120$/kilowatt. Understanding the impact of the program mix, portfolio size, and duration of implementation for customer-funded energy efficiency portfolios can guide regulatory oversight of these programs, help utilities better utilize energy efficiency as a resource, and inform building energy decarbonization policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Advanced blade-shaped thermal energy storage device: Development and application

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) is a promising approach for capturing and reusing excess thermal energy, yet widespread adoption is limited by low thermal conductivity, bulky configurations, and inadequate scalability. Here, this study presents a modular, blade-shaped TES prototype designed to address these challenges. The device integrates a lightweight aluminum shell, an embedded serpentine coil for active or passive heat exchange, and a cost-effective corrugated metal mesh for enhanced PCM thermal conductivity. With thickness-to-length and thickness-to-width ratios of 0.03 and 0.08, respectively, the blade-shaped TES achieves a compact, modular form factor suitable for space-constrained applications. Experimental testing demonstrated the efficient charge and discharge behavior of blade-shaped TES, capturing PCM superheating, phase-change transitions, and subcooling dynamics, with charging and discharging efficiencies of 94.9% and 94.6%, respectively. Also, the system can potentially achieve higher energy density than that of conventional TES designs. When integrated into a household refrigerator during the study, three blade-shaped TES modules successfully shifted 100% of peak-time compressor operation to off-peak hours, reducing energy consumption while maintaining more stable compartment temperatures. The blade-shaped TES's thin geometry, modularity, and enhanced thermal performance support scalable deployment across residential, commercial, and industrial applications, providing a versatile, cost-effective solution for high-efficiency, demand-flexible thermal energy management.

Blade-shaped

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energysharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy-sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

aggregates

Tensorized Interior Radiative Heat Transfer for a Scalable and Calibrated Building Energy Simulator

Building energy simulation is a critical tool for developing and testing advanced control strategies, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), to provide demand flexibility and affordable energy costs. The recently introduced Smart Buildings Control Suite (sbsim) provides a lightweight, scalable, and data-calibrated simulation environment based on a 2D finite-difference model. However, the initial model primarily focused on conductive and convective heat transfer, neglecting the significant impact of long-wave radiative heat exchange between interior surfaces. This paper presents a significant extension to the sbsim framework by incorporating a physically-grounded model for interior radiative heat transfer. Our primary contribution is the development and integration of a fully tensorized radiative heat transfer module, which preserves the computational efficiency and scalability of the original simulator. This was achieved by developing a pipeline for view factor calculation, including an algorithm to identify directly seeing surfaces within complex floor plans, and formulating the net radiation equations for efficient execution on modern hardware accelerators. We validate the numerical accuracy of our tensorized implementation by comparing its results against a traditional iterative approach, demonstrating identical outcomes. This enhancement increases the physical fidelity of sbsim, enabling more accurate training of RL agents for building energy optimization.

Ham, Sang woo

OCHRE

OCHRE™ uses a variety of input data sources to run time-series simulations. Building models can be taken from the ResStock™ database or generated using the Building Energy Optimization Tool (BEopt™) or other OpenStudio-HPXML workflows. EV charging profiles can be taken from datasets used in NLR's 2030 National Charging Network project. Weather data can be taken from the National Solar Radiation Database or EnergyPlus® weather files. There are no public datasets with OCHRE outputs at this time. However, a recent project dataset on water heater and EV demand flexibility can be requested. OCHRE is a Python-based energy modeling tool designed to model flexible loads in residential buildings. OCHRE includes detailed models and controls for flexible devices including HVAC equipment, water heaters, EVs, solar PV, and batteries. It is designed to run in co-simulation with custom controllers, aggregators, and grid models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Design And Control of Thermal Storage for Ventilative Cooling in Multifamily Buildings (Final Report)

The concept of natural ventilation is to provide a heat sink for cooling the building during the occupancy periods at night and improve indoor thermal comfort during the daytime without or with minimal need for mechanical cooling. Commonly, natural ventilation through the window or mechanical circulation of the air through the ventilation ducts are two key methods used to achieve night ventilation. Due to the increasing electric need for space heating and cooling, renewable energies combined with energy storage systems are receiving attention worldwide nowadays. When designed and controlled properly, this strategy can reduce energy use for cooling, reduce the size of mechanical cooling equipment, reduce peak electrical demand for cooling, and better enable demand flexibility for mechanical cooling equipment. In some cases, ventilative cooling can eliminate the need for mechanical cooling altogether. For these reasons, California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards have recently added prescriptive requirements that all new single-family residences (in most California climates) must include ventilative cooling systems (aka: “whole house fans”). However, the current standards do not address multifamily buildings because market-available ventilative cooling products are designed for single-family residences and are physically incompatible with many multifamily building archetypes. The results from the study show that the combination of thermal energy storage on building walls along with nighttime ventilation cooling assisted with nighttime ventilation can save total building energy usage by up to 9% and peak load by 16% in moderate climate zones. The controlled nighttime ventilation cooling (activate ventilation only when outdoor conditions are favorable) can also provide total electricity savings of up to 5% and 7% in hot and cold climates, respectively. In the case of moderate climates, kitchen exhaust-assisted nighttime ventilation cooling can eliminate the need for cooling during overnight hours. This can also significantly assist in reducing carbon emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. Clean energy resources that are located behind the meter have the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Solar plus storage systems (PVESS) are clean energy resources that can supply backup power without requiring fuel resupply or increasing local emissions. This report examines the regional value of PVESS for resilience by calculating a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) that considers the annual resiliency benefits of PVESS and the annualized cost of the investment. In addition, we estimate the expected technical mitigation potential of PVESS systems at the county-level to these expected events, and characterize the customer interruption costs by determining the value of lost load at the state level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY