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DOE OSTI2023

On the applicability of various levels of detail for occupant behavior representation and modeling in building performance simulation

Occupant behavior (OB) is one of the significant sources of uncertainty in building performance simulation. While OB modeling has received increased attention in the past decade, research on the degree of granularity or level of detail (LoD) required for representing occupants is still in the nascent stages. This paper analyzes the modeling and applicability of three LoDs to represent occupants in building performance assessment. A medium-sized prototype office building located in Chicago, Illinois is used as the simulation case study. Ten occupant-centric attributes are adopted to develop the LoDs for OB representation. We first demonstrate the different modeling approaches required for simulating the three fidelity levels. Later, we illustrate the suitability of the developed LoDs in supporting six building performance use cases across different lifecycle stages. Furthermore, this study intends to provide guidance for the building simulation community on appropriate OB representation to support various use cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

One Stomatal Model to Rule Them All? Toward Improved Representation of Carbon and Water Exchange in Global Models

Abstract Stomatal conductance schemes that optimize with respect to photosynthetic and hydraulic functions have been proposed to address biases in land‐surface model (LSM) simulations during drought. However, systematic evaluations of both optimality‐based and alternative empirical formulations for coupling carbon and water fluxes are lacking. Here, we embed 12 empirical and optimization approaches within a LSM framework. We use theoretical model experiments to explore parameter identifiability and understand how model behaviors differ in response to abiotic changes. We also evaluate the models against leaf‐level observations of gas‐exchange and hydraulic variables, from xeric to wet forest/woody species spanning a mean annual precipitation range of 361–3,286 mm yr −1 . We find that models differ in how easily parameterized they are, due to: (a) poorly constrained optimality criteria (i.e., resulting in multiple solutions), (b) low influence parameters, (c) sensitivities to environmental drivers. In both the idealized experiments and compared to observations, sensitivities to variability in environmental drivers do not agree among models. Marked differences arise in sensitivities to soil moisture (soil water potential) and vapor pressure deficit. For example, stomatal closure rates at high vapor pressure deficit range between −45% and +70% of those observed. Although over half the new generation of stomatal schemes perform to a similar standard compared to observations of leaf‐gas exchange, two models do so through large biases in simulated leaf water potential (up to 11 MPa). Our results provide guidance for LSM development, by highlighting key areas in need for additional experimentation and theory, and by constraining currently viable stomatal hypotheses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Process model for multilayer slide coating of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells

Slide coating is a precision method suitable for depositing multiple liquid-film layers simultaneously. Originally developed in the photographic film industry, it has been deployed for manufacturing of other products that benefit from multilayer coatings. One emerging application is the manufacture of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), which are used to produce electricity through electrochemical reactions of hydrogen and oxygen gas. The membrane-electrode assembly (MEA), in which key electrochemical reactions occur, consists of three layers that are typically deposited separately in serial fashion and then laminated together to form the three-layer MEA, i.e., three sequential steps of coat and dry. Adapting the process to simultaneous, multilayer slide coating of all three layers will save equipment cost and space while minimizing possible exposure to contaminants during transition between the steps. We are developing a three-layer slide coating model to aid the manufacturing process design of PEMFC. The model accounts for rheology of each layer, which typically exhibit shear thinning behavior. Model predictions are used to investigate simultaneous coatability of catalyst inks and to determine the best layer-by-layer ink selection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Report on Data Quality Required for Modeling an MSR

Calculations were performed to assess how uncertainties in molten salt property values impact the results of behavior models of molten salt reactor systems under steady-state conditions. The thermophysical and thermochemical properties of salt mixtures being considered for use in molten salt reactors are not yet well characterized and methods used to measure property values to molten salts are not yet well established. The limited property data for salts of interest that are available in the literature are inconsistent and unreliable. Many methods used to measure property values remain developmental in the sense that not all variables affecting measured values have been identified or controlled during the measurement and not all aspects of the measurements affecting data quality are calibrated. A prior report described the repeatability of measurements made at Argonne and the reproducibility of measurements made with the same salts at several institutions is being evaluated. There is significant uncertainty in measured property values due to instrumental limitations and the effects of contaminants in the salts used to make the measurements that impacts predictions of salt behavior in a reactor. Most salts of interest are multicomponent eutectic or near-eutectic mixtures and both uncertainty in the salt composition and uncertainty in measured values. Furthermore, the salt composition evolves over time due to the uptake of impurities from the atmosphere and corrosion of containment vessels. More significantly, fission products will accumulate during operation that change the salt compositions and property values. MSR developers need to understand how this uncertainty in the basic property data of the fuel will impact modeling predictions for normal reactor operation as well was in transient scenarios that will impact the safety basis. The calculations and analyses in this report address the impact of uncertainty in measured property values under steady-state conditions through a generalized parametric study. The pooled uncertainty from contributions by a number of factors were considered and quantified, including varying composition due to impurities and fission products, imprecision in the measured values, and uncontrolled aspects of the measurement. In this way, we can begin to gain an understanding of the magnitude of the impact uncertainty will have in modeling MSR systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parameter extraction for a SPICE model of an hTron superconducting thermal switch

Efficiently simulating large circuits is crucial to the development of superconducting nanowire-based electronics. However, current simulation tools for this technology are not adapted to the scaling of circuit size and complexity. We focus on the multilayered heater-nanocryotron (hTron), a promising superconducting nanowire-based switch used in applications such as superconducting nanowire single-photon detector readout. Previously, the hTron was modeled using traditional finite-element methods, which fall short in simulating systems at a larger scale. An empirical-based method would be better adapted to this task, enhancing both simulation speed and agreement with experimental data. In this work, we perform switching current and activation delay measurements on 17 hTron devices. We then develop a method for extracting physical fitting parameters used to characterize the devices. We build a SPICE behavioral model that reproduces the static and transient device behavior using these parameters, and validate it by comparing its performance to a model developed in prior work, showing an improvement in simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our model provides circuit designers with a tool to help understand the hTron’s behavior during all design stages, thus enabling broader use of the hTron across various new areas of application.

Caloritronics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development and application of sorption mass transfer models for fission product transport in TRISO fuel systems using BISON

Fission product mass transfer within and between TRISO particle and compact layers is an important phenomenon. It directly impacts fission product release predictions, which are used as source terms for safety and licensing calculations. Modeling fission product transport within layers and across bonded interfaces is relatively straightforward under the assumptions of isotropic Fickian diffusion, concentration continuity, and flux continuity. Modeling fission product transport across gaps and debonded layers is more difficult. Gaps are known to form between the buffer and inner PyC (IPyC), and debonding may occur between the IPyC and silicon carbide (SiC). A new mass transfer model was developed to provide a more accurate and robust fission product release calculation by accounting for interlayer sorptivity. One importance of the new model is to account for temperature and material changes across the gap based on sorption isotherm. This work presents the development of the sorption behavioral model and a fission product trapping model, and analyses the subsequent fission product diffusion behavior, specifically cesium, through TRISO particles and compact materials using the BISON fuel performance code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow to compare these models can help to describe and explain differences in model projections. This also increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler et al., 2015). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index (RAI), emission reduction type index (ERT), inertia timescale (IT), fossil fuel reduction (FFR), transformation index (TI) and cost per abatement value (CAV). We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, including both older version as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and allows for comparison of model versions in time. The indicators and their trends can often be explained in terms of model characteristics and changes. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide an useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend across the different models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Lateral Flow on Surface Water and Energy Budgets over the Southern Great Plains – A Modeling Study

As we see the horizontal grid spacing decrease, treatment of hydrologic processes in land surface models, such as the lateral flow of surface and subsurface flow, need to be explicitly represented. Unlike previous studies that mainly focused on the mountainous regions, in this study the offline WRF-Hydro model is employed to study the impact of lateral flow on soil moisture and energy fluxes over the relatively flat southern Great Plains (SGP). The vast amount of measurements over the SGP provide an unique opportunity to assess the model behavior. In addition, newly developed land surface properties and input forcing are ingested into the model, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties associated with the initial and boundary forcing and help to identify model deficiencies. Our results show that the more realistic inputs (parameters, soil types, forcing) lead to larger underestimation of latent heat flux and dry bias, indicating the existence of model structural uncertainty (embedded errors) in WRF-Hydro that need to be characterized to inform future model development efforts. Including lateral flow processes partly mitigates the model deficiencies in representing hydrologic processes and alleviates the dry bias. In particular, both surface and subsurface lateral flow increase soil moisture mainly over the lower elevations, except that subsurface flow also affects soil moisture over steeper terrains. Additional simulations are performed to assess the effect of routing resolution on model results. When LSM resolution is high, noticeable differences in soil moisture are produced between different routing resolutions especially over steep terrain. Whereas when LSM resolution is coarse, differences between routing resolutions become negligible, especially over flat terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.4.0

HyRAM+ is a software toolkit for conducting quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and consequence modeling for hydrogen and other alternative fuels infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ contains validated, simplified release behavior models, a standardized QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data relevant to hydrogen installations. HyRAM (hydrogen-only) versions 1.0 to 3.1 were developed by Sandia for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO). The U.S. DOE Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) contributed to the development of HyRAM+ version 4.0 regarding the addition of methane (natural gas) and propane models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-10862 O

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2022

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.4.1.1

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2024

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.5.1.1

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2024

Path-BigBird: An AI-Driven Transformer Approach to Classification of Cancer Pathology Reports

PURPOSE Surgical pathology reports are critical for cancer diagnosis and management. To accurately extract information about tumor characteristics from pathology reports in near real time, we explore the impact of using domain-specific transformer models that understand cancer pathology reports. METHODS We built a pathology transformer model, Path-BigBird, by using 2.7 million pathology reports from six SEER cancer registries. We then compare different variations of Path-BigBird with two less computationally intensive methods: Hierarchical Self-Attention Network (HiSAN) classification model and an offthe-shelf clinical transformer model (Clinical BigBird). We use five pathology information extraction tasks for evaluation: site, subsite, laterality, histology, and behavior. Model performance is evaluated by using macro and micro F 1 scores. RESULTS We found that Path-BigBird and Clinical BigBird outperformed the HiSAN in all tasks. Clinical BigBird performed better on the site and laterality tasks. Versions of the Path-BigBird model performed best on the two most difficult tasks: subsite (micro F 1 score of 72.53, macro F 1 score of 35.76) and histology (micro F 1 score of 80.96, macro F 1 score of 37.94). The largest performance gains over the HiSAN model were for histology, for which a Path-BigBird model increased the micro F 1 score by 1.44 points and the macro F 1 score by 3.55 points. Overall, the results suggest that a Path-BigBird model with a vocabulary derived from wellcurated and deidentified data is the best-performing model. CONCLUSION The Path-BigBird pathology transformer model improves automated information extraction from pathology reports. Although Path-BigBird outperforms Clinical BigBird and HiSAN, these less computationally expensive models still have utility when resources are constrained.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

MSD CoP Webinar: "Generative agents: A new frontier for representing human actors and their behavior in MSD models"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) v.6.1

SAND2025-11565O HyRAM+ (Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models) is a tool for conducting quantitative risk assessment (QRA) in transportation systems. HyRAM+ contains validated, simplified release behavior models, engineering models, and generic data relevant to hydrogen installations. HyRAM+’s platform integrates models and data to conduct QRA on user-defined hydrogen or other alternative fuel systems. The software will enable the international safety research community to add validated models to the HyRAM+ platform for use in QRAs. HyRAM (hydrogen-only) versions 1.0 to 3.1 were developed by Sandia for the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office. The following agencies contributed to the development of HyRAM+ version 4.0 regarding the addition of methane (natural gas) and propane models: the DOE Vehicle Technologies Office and the Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Alb↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated Membership Inference Attacks: Discovering MIA Signal Computations using LLM Agents

Membership inference attacks (MIAs), which enable adversaries to determine whether specific data points were part of a model's training dataset, have emerged as an important framework to understand, assess, and quantify the potential information leakage associated with machine learning systems. Designing effective MIAs is a challenging task that usually requires extensive manual exploration of model behaviors to identify potential vulnerabilities. In this paper, we introduce AutoMIA -- a novel framework that leverages large language model (LLM) agents to automate the design and implementation of new MIA signal computations. By utilizing LLM agents, we can systematically explore a vast space of potential attack strategies, enabling the discovery of novel strategies. Our experiments demonstrate AutoMIA can successfully discover new MIAs that are specifically tailored to user-configured target model and dataset, resulting in improvements of up to 0.18 in absolute AUC over existing MIAs. This work provides the first demonstration that LLM agents can serve as an effective and scalable paradigm for designing and implementing MIAs with SOTA performance, opening up new avenues for future exploration.

Tran, Toan Viet [Emory University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Questionnaire for Radioisotope Identification and Estimation from Gamma Spectra using PyRIID v2

Accurate targeting of radioisotope classifiers and estimators requires an understanding of the target problem space. In order to facilitate clear communication on expected model behavior and performance between practitioners and stakeholders on their problems, this questionnaire was created. Stakeholder responses form the basis of a trained model as well as the start of usage requirements for the model as it is integrated with analysis processes or detection systems. This questionnaire may also be useful to machine learning practitioners and gamma spectroscopists developing new algorithms as a starting point for characterizing their problem space, especially if they are using PyRIID.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗