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At least 685 records · Page 38

Multi-Scale Modeling Framework for Mercury Biogeochemistry

Multi-Scale modeling of mercury (Hg) geochemical speciation and reactions has been performed by integrating atomistic quantum chemical calculations with continuum scale speciation models. Major progress has been made in the improvement of quantum chemical models to calculate critical thermodynamic data for Hg complexes in aquatic environments. Rapid and reliable quantum chemical approaches have been developed for calculating acid dissociation constants (pK a ) and stability constants (log K), with calculated mean unsigned errors of 0.5 and 1.5 log units, respectively for ligand molecules and Hg complexes. At the continuum scale, systematic analysis of uncertainty propagation in mercury (Hg) speciation modeling has been conducted and was used to identify environmental conditions under which thermodynamic constant uncertainties are significant and recommended to be accounted for. The integrated framework for multi-scale modeling of mercury geochemistry is open to the research community through the web-based multiscale modeling aqueous speciation resource, AQUA-MER. The improved quantum chemical approaches for thermodynamic constant calculations are accessible through AQUA-MER and can be used to provide the missing constants in the continuum scale speciation calculations. In addition to low molecular mass Hg complex speciation, modeling natural aquatic environments also involve the transport of high molecular weight dissolved organic matter (DOM) in reactive flows simultaneously with equilibrium and kinetic reactions. To this end, atomistic MD simulations were performed to capture the details of aggregation, mechanisms and distribution of functional groups in DOM at the molecular level. The elemental composition and calculated bulk properties of the DOM models are in close agreement with experimental measurements. A travel-time based reactive transport model in the hyporheic zone of stream corridors was established for the multicomponent Hg-DOM-S system and implemented through PFLOTRAN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pulsed Neutron Capture for Monitoring CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. Pulsed neutron capture (PNC) logging has been used as part of the MRCSP monitoring of CO 2 injection and storage during assessment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in several Northern Niagara Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) reefs in Michigan. This technique and data processing cost less than traditional fluid sampling and presents a low risk to well operations by utilizing through-tubing logging capabilities. Additionally, monitoring CO 2 migration and break-through can be conducted from a single monitoring well in the reservoir. A total of four reefs were selected for these studies to monitor CO 2 migration and to test the viability and effectiveness of the PNC technology for saturation monitoring in a low porosity and highly diverse lithology environment. This study provides assessment of the technology and recommendations for utilization of saturation analysis.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Effects of Model Uncertainties in Underground Chemical Explosions on Far-field Results

We used the CTH shock physics code to simulate the explosion of an 18-t chemical explosive at a depth of 250 m. We used the CTH in the two-dimensional axisymmetric (cylindrical) geometry (2DC) and most simulations included fully tamped explosions in wet tuff. Our study focused on parametric studies of three of the traditional strength models available in CTH, namely, geologic-yield, elastic perfectly-plastic von Mises, and Johnson-Cook strength (flow stress) models. We processed CTH results through a code that generates Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) histories for each simulation. Since RDP is the solution of the linear wave equation in spherical coordinates, it is mainly valid at far-enough distance from the explosion the elastic radius. Among various parameters examined, we found the yield strength to have the greatest effect on the resulting RDP, where the peak RDP reduces almost linearly in log-log space as the yield strength increases. Moreover, an underground chemical explosion results in a cavity whose final diameter is inversely proportional to the material yield strength, i.e., as the material's yield strength increases the resulting final cavity radius decreases. Additionally, we found the choice of explosive material (COMP-C4 versus COMP-B) has minor effects on the peak RDP, where denser COMP-C4 shows higher peak RDP than the less dense COMP-B by a factor of ~1.1. In addition to wet tuff, we studied explosions in dry tuff, salt, and basalt, for a single strength model and yield strength value. We found wet tuff has the highest peak RDP value, followed by dry tuff, salt, and basalt. 2DC simulations of explosions in 11 m radius spherical, hemispherical, and cylindrical cavities showed the RDP signals have much lower magnitude than tamped explosions, where the cavity explosions mimicked nearly decoupled explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

High-Temperature Tensile and Creep Test Results on Thin Wall Tube Specimens of ODS Alloys 14YWT and OFRAC

High-temperature tensile and strain rate jump (SRJ) creep tests were conducted on axial specimens fabricated from thin wall tubes of the oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys 14YWT and OFRAC. The dimensions of the 14YWT thin wall tube was 10.7 mm OD, 0.5 mm WT and 0.92 m and of the OFRAC thin wall tube was 8.5 mm OD + 0.5 mm WT and 1.78 m in length. The axial specimens fabricated from the thin wall tubes were based on a dual-gauge design with gauge dimensions of 4 mm long and 2 mm wide. The tensile tests were conducted in air at 800ºC, 900ºC and 1,000ºC and the SRJ creep tests were conducted in air at 800ºC. Two axial specimens were used in each tensile and SRJ creep tests. The results of the tensile tests showed much lower yield stress (YS) compared to ultimate tensile strength (UTS) indicative of large work hardening properties. The results showed the UTS of OFRAC was higher than that of 14YWT by ~35 MPa at 800ºC. At 900ºC, the UTS of OFRAC and 14YWT was similar at 900ºC and at 1000ºC, the UTS of 14YWT was higher than that of OFRAC by ~10 MPa. The ductility properties of OFRAC were greater than that of 14YWT with higher values of uniform elongation (UE) and total elongation (TE) at all tensile test temperatures. The creep properties of 14YWT and OFRAC were evaluated by the strain rate jump test method at 800ºC. The stress exponent (n) for creep was obtained from the SRJ test data by plotting the values of the log strain rate against the log stress, which is measured from the stress-strain curve generated during the SRJ test. The results showed the highest stress exponents of n = 19.8 and n = 35.0 were measured from the two SRJ tests on 14YWT. The stress exponent measured from one successful SRJ test on OFRAC was n = 13.3, which was lower than that of 14YWT. Nevertheless, these high values of stress exponent are consistent with ODS ferritic alloys such as 14YWT and OFRAC since they indicate dislocation-particle interactions are the dominant creep mechanism for specific ranges of temperature and stress. The results obtained from the tensile and SRJ creep tests conducted on axial specimens in this study indicate that 14YWT and OFRAC retain high strengths at temperatures up to 1,000ºC and good creep performance at 800ºC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equipment Testing Environment (ETE) Process Specification

This document is intended to be utilized with the Equipment Test Environment being developed to provide a standard process by which the ETE can be validated. The ETE is developed with the intent of establishing cyber intrusion, data collection and through automation provide objective goals that provide repeatability. This testing process is being developed to interface with the Technical Area V physical protection system. The document will overview the testing structure, interfaces, device and network logging and data capture. Additionally, it will cover the testing procedure, criteria and constraints necessary to properly capture data and logs and record them for experimental data capture and analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AD – Elog Data Search Using Natural Language Processing Techniques

The goal of this project is to develop and evaluate a Machine Learning model using natural language processing techniques to categorize AD E-Log entries efficiently. AD E-Logs, which play a vital role in Fermilab's projects as a system to record and manage various data, often suffer from slow search processing and imprecise results. To address this issue, we preprocessed the data and employed the Doc2Vec model for training. The resulting model enables us to identify and retrieve the most relevant entries, thus enhancing user experience in accessing desired information.

Muse, Amiin↗

Application of Principal Component Analysis to Electrochemical Reprocessing PM and NMAC

In this report, data from an electrorefiner (ER) for nuclear fuel reprocessing is evaluated for process monitoring (PM) conclusions. This data comes from tests performed at the Idaho National Laboratory in 2022. Multivariate approaches utilizing methods of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. This is based off established work in process monitoring for fault detection in industrial facilities. This report will discuss the background, methods, and results of the application and some of the conclusions and applications that can be drawn from them. PCA is applied to two different electrorefiner (ER) operations that occurred at Idaho National Laboratory between August and October 2022. The first operation occurred with little incident while the second had several noted faults in the equipment in operational logs. The data from the first run was used to train the data for “normal” operations and applied to both sets of data to determine when operations were in an “off-normal” condition and identify where the fault occurs through PCA. PCA was able to identify off-normal events and identify the cause for off-normal operations. These identified off-normal events matched with the events and their causes in the operational logs. However, small amounts of variance in the data led to false detection of “off-normal” events. Thus, careful selection of training data and a-posteriori conclusions based off operator assessments will both be required for application of PCA to PM applications. This work demonstrated that multivariate approaches and latent variables are applicable to pyroprocessing PM applications and can be further expanded in future work as quality variables such as salt concentration from sensors and sampling become available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Interpreting the Strain Tensor During Injection into a Reservoir

A suite of well tests was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of measuring and interpreting the strain tensor during injection. Water was injected at 1 liter/s for a few days to a few weeks into a well completed at a depth of 530 m in the Bartlesville sandstone in the North Avant Field in Oklahoma. The strain tensor was measured using strainmeters at a depth of 30m and a distance of 220m from the well. We used a Gladwin strainmeter, a state-of-the-art geodetic strainmeter, as well as novel borehole strainmeters developed for the project. After processing, the horizontal strains were tensile and the vertical strain was compressive during injection. The radial strain was less than the circumferential strain. Strain magnitudes increased during injection and recovered afterward. The strain rate was as fast as 100 nanostrain/d at the start of injection, and decreased to 10 nanostrain/d after a few days. The normal strain signals were approximately proportional to the log of time during the first few days of injection, and the semi-log slope was 50 to 75 nanostrain. Data from the Gladwin strainmeter were essentially identical to data from a strainmeter we developed using optical fiber sensors. Tilt was measured using two tiltmeters, but the tilts were erratic compared to the normal strain and were of limited value. Strain data were analyzed using a strain type-curve method, an analytical solution to a poroelastic inhomogeneity, and a stochastic inversion method. Poroelastic simulations explain the data well. Results from the interpretation methods are consistent with each other, and with independent information characterizing the area. The hydraulic diffusivity is approximately 0.5 m2/s and the permeability is between 100 and 500 mD, according to analysis of the strain signals. This is consistent with measurements of permeability from cores, and with analyses of pressure transients. The analyses indicate that Young’s modulus of the reservoir is between 2 and 6 GPa. Strain interpretations indicate the well intersects a permeable lens with a maximum dimension of 500 to 1,000 m. An isopach map of coarse-grained sand confirms a feature roughly 1,000 m in lateral extent. The results demonstrate that the strain signal measured at shallow (30m) depth can be used to infer properties and heterogeneities in an underlying reservoir or aquifer.

Murdoch, Larry↗

2024 Update of Comprehensive Review of Multi-arm Caliper Data for the Big Hill SPR Site

The Big Hill SPR site has a rich data set consisting of multi-arm caliper (MAC) logs collected from the cavern wells. This data set provides insight into the on-going casing deformation at the Big Hill site. This report summarizes the MAC surveys for each well and presents well longevity estimates where possible. Included in the report is an examination of the well twins for each cavern and a discussion on what may or may not be responsible for the different levels of deformation between some of the well twins. The report also takes a systematic view of the MAC data presenting spatial patterns of casing deformation and deformation orientation in an effort to better understand the underlying causes. The conclusions present a hypothesis suggesting the small-scale variations in casing deformation are attributable to similar scale variations in the character of the salt-caprock interface. These variations do not appear directly related to shear zones or faults. In addition, the deformation orientation shows no preferred directionality. This 2024 edition of this report represents an update to the original, 2023 edition. The updates primarily focus on the inclusion of MAC log data run since the December 2021 threshold date for the original report, but some new analyses are also included.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

UT-GOM2-2 Preliminary Report: Terrebonne Basin Northern Gulf of Mexico, 30 July-28 September 2023

In the summer and fall of 2023, the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Hydrate Coring Expedition (UT-GOM2-2) drilled, cored, made downhole measurements, and analyzed samples from the seafloor to the base of the gas hydrate stability zone in one location (Site H, WR313) in the Terrebonne basin, deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Analyses of data and samples from the expedition will inform biological, geochemical, and geomechanical models to constrain the role of gas hydrates in the carbon cycle and the potential for gas hydrates as an energy resource. Pressure and conventional cores were collected continuously to a depth of 155.1 meters below the seafloor (mbsf). At deeper depths, cores were taken periodically from hydrate-bearing sands and their bounding muds to a total depth of 861.3 mbsf. 162.6 m of conventional core and 54.8 m of pressure core were obtained. Twelve temperature measurements were made between 27.1 and 144.5 mbsf to determine the geothermal gradient. At the seafloor, more than 4 m of sandy silt of unknown origin was encountered. Beneath this sand, to a depth of ~200 mbsf, the section was composed of interbedded mud and biogenic carbonate ooze. The biogenic ooze correlated to low density and high porosity intervals observed in the previously acquired logging while drilling (LWD) data and as measured. Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy constrains the entire record to the Pleistocene (< 0.91 million years) with a pronounced increase in sedimentation rate with depth. Beneath 200 mbsf, the section was predominantly composed of mud with two thicker, hydrate-bearing coarse-grained intervals, which are commonly known as the Blue and Orange sands. The dissolved gas concentration was quantified from pressure cores. In the shallow section, dissolved methane concentration increased below the sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) and reaches saturation (the limit of solubility for methane) at 147 mbsf. Gas expansion was very common in conventional and depressurized pressure (conventionalized) cores below the SMTZ. At deeper depths, the methane concentration within muds bounding the Blue and Orange reservoirs was generally found to be less than saturation. The dissolved and hydrate gas composition is consistent with a microbial source, containing greater than 99.99% methane and only trace concentrations of ethane, propane, and butane. The methane to ethane ratio (C 1 /C 2 ) and the methane to ethane plus propane (C 1 /(C 2 +C 3 )) decrease with depth down to at least 678 mbsf, mainly driven by the increase in ethane with depth. It is unclear if this trend continues through the Orange sand interval. The δ 13 C isotopic signature of methane ranges between -69.9 and -78.5 ‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB). Pressure core recovery of all sandy intervals was poor. However, pressure core logs of the Orange sand show intervals of low density and high velocity, which are indicative of high hydrate saturation. One core from within the Orange sand was composed of interbedded graded sandy silt and mud. The sandy silts from this core are composed of mainly quartz and feldspar with some lithics. Most of the recovered pressure core samples are maintained at near in-situ pressure and temperature (within the hydrate stability field) at the University of Texas Pressure Core Center awaiting analysis. In the shallow section, samples will be used to determine the flux of organic carbon through the basin system, find the rate at which that carbon was consumed, and understand the microbial population responsible for these processes. In the deeper section, samples from in and around the hydrate reservoirs will be used to determine the petrophysical properties of the reservoir and bounding seals in these systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Bryan Mound Collar Compression Study

This report presents a study of collar compression for the wells at the Bryan Mound site. The study includes a comprehensive review of all available Multi-Arm Caliper (MAC) logs from the site, which has been used to identify specific wells that are experiencing casing restrictions at collar joints. Additional site-wide analysis of Bryan Mound well temperature data, proximity to sulphur wells, pulsed eddy current (PEC) logs, and a general spatial analysis has been included.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Quantifying Time to Charge

This work presents analysis aimed at quantifying and improving the time between the start of an electric vehicle (EV) charging session and the start of actual energy transfer. This is achieved by analyzing EV charge session communication logs. The data from these logs are used to identify the longest-duration phases within charge initialization. Paths for future work are presented with a focus on the areas most likely to deliver overall time-to-charge improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Expedition UT-GOM2-2 Site H

Pressure and conventional cores were collected at Site H of the Walker Ridge Protracted Area Block 313 in the Terrebonne Basin, deepwater Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico) during the University of Texas (UT) Deepwater Hydrate Coring Expedition (UT-GOM2-2). Pressure and conventional cores were collected continuously to a depth of 155.1 meters below the seafloor (mbsf). At deeper depths, cores were taken periodically from hydrate-bearing sands and their bounding muds to a total depth of 861.3 mbsf. 162.6 m of conventional core and 54.8 m of pressure core were recovered. Twelve temperature measurements were made between 27.1 and 144.5 mbsf to determine the geothermal gradient. At the seafloor, more than 4 m of sandy silt of unknown origin was encountered. Beneath this sand, to a depth of about 200 mbsf, the section was composed of interbedded mud and biogenic carbonate ooze. The ooze correlated to low density and high porosity intervals observed in the previously acquired logging while drilling (LWD) data and as measured. These ooze intervals also correspond to lighter sediment color, increased Ca content based on X-ray florescence (XRF) core scanning, and increased calcareous nannofossil abundance. Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy constrains the entire record to the Pleistocene (< 0.91 million years), with a pronounced increase in sedimentation rate with depth. Below 200 mbsf, the section was predominantly composed of mud with two thicker, hydrate-bearing coarse-grained intervals, which are commonly known as the Blue and Orange sands. The dissolved gas concentration was quantified from pressure cores. In the shallow section, dissolved methane concentration increased below the sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) and reaches saturation (the limit of solubility for methane) at 147 mbsf. Gas expansion was very common in conventional and depressurized pressure (conventionalized) cores below the SMTZ. At deeper depths, the methane concentration within muds bounding the Blue and Orange reservoirs was generally found to be less than saturation. The dissolved and hydrate gas composition is consistent with a microbial source, containing greater than 99.99% methane and only trace concentrations of ethane, propane, and butane. The methane to ethane ratio (C1 /C2 ) and the methane to ethane plus propane (C1 /(C2 +C3 )) decrease with depth down to at least 678 mbsf, mainly driven by the increase in ethane with depth. It is unclear if this trend continues through the Orange sand interval. The δ13C isotopic signature of methane ranges between -69.9 and -78.5 ‰ relative to the Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB) standard. Pressure core recovery in sandy intervals was poor. However, pressure core logs of the Orange sand show intervals of low density and high velocity, which are indicative of high hydrate saturation. One pressure core was degassed and the average hydrate saturation in the core was determined to be 24%. One core from within the Orange sand was composed of interbedded graded sandy silt and mud. The sandy silts from this core are composed of mainly quartz and feldspar with some lithics. Most of the recovered pressure core samples are maintained at near in-situ pressure and temperature (within the hydrate stability field) at the University of Texas Pressure Core Center awaiting analysis. In the shallow section, samples will be used to determine the flux of organic carbon through the basin system, find the rate at which that carbon was consumed, and understand the microbial population responsible for these processes. In the deeper section, samples from in and around the hydrate reservoirs will be used to determine the petrophysical properties of the reservoir and bounding seals in these systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

lllinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III: Pre-drilling Site Assessment: Prairie State Generating Company

The Illinois Storage Corridor project will drill a stratigraphic test well as part of the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase 3 project near the Prairie State Generating Company coal-fired power plant near Marissa, Illinois. The pre-drilling site evaluation has considered the primary target reservoirs, the Potosi Dolomite and St. Peter Sandstone, and primary seal, the Maquoketa Group. Data to be collected from the well include core, fluid samples, in situ well tests, geophysical logs intended to provide information on lithologic, geomechanical, and geophysical characteristics to determine the feasibility for the geologic sequestration of 50 million metric tons or more of injected carbon dioxide. The planned drilling site has been evaluated using available subsurface geologic data and analyses from the Illinois Basin. These data provide lithologic and structural information, shallow groundwater resource distribution, location of known nearby wellbores, and regional drilling characteristics. The data were used to generate geologic structure and isopach maps for the target reservoir and caprock strata and for prognosing the tops of major lithologic units to aid drilling and coring procedures. The regional analyses indicate that no known structural features are expected to negatively impact the target storage reservoir or caprock. No protected and sensitive areas, groundwater resources, or existing resource development are expected to be impacted by the proposed well drilling activities. The well is planned to be drilled to a total depth of approximately 5,600 feet (1,707 m) and terminate in the Precambrian. Cores (up to 5 intervals) will be collected from the Maquoketa Group, confining units above the St. Peter Sandstone, St. Peter Sandstone, confining units of the Potosi Dolomite and the Potosi Dolomite. Water samples will be attempted to be collected from the St. Peter Sandstone and Potosi Dolomite. Potential impact on drilling progress is a lost circulation zone in the Potosi Dolomite, which has been demonstrated to have intermittent cavernous porosity from karstification elsewhere in the Illinois Basin. This document also presents a preliminary coring and sampling program, proposed logging suite, and well testing program, all of which will be reviewed during drilling.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

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