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DOE OSTI2023

Model Energy Codes End-Use Opportunity Analysis

Model energy codes (ASHRAE Standard 90.1 and IECC) has significantly impacted programs and policies aimed at improving energy efficiency both in United States and across the globe. Standard 90.1, first published in 1975 (originally referred to as Standard 90) provides minimum energy efficiency guidelines for designing, constructing, operating, and maintaining new construction and renovated buildings. It is updated continuously, with new editions published every 3 years. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducts simulated energy and cost savings analysis of model energy codes to determine their expected impact and to track progress toward net-zero goals and efficiency targets. Additionally, the simulation outputs are examined to assess how energy is used across primary systems within prominent U.S. commercial building types to understand how energy is used in each building type at the end-use level and to identify areas for improvements in future code cycles. This end-use opportunity analysis of model energy codes provides ASHRAE technical committees and other interested parties a better understanding of how the Standard affects various building systems and end uses, specifically, those in the Standard that most prominently influence energy efficiency. Additionally, findings provide industry stakeholders guidance in identifying building types and end-uses with the most potential for energy efficiency improvements through energy codes and those that may require beyond code measures to meet energy use reduction targets. This paper summarizes features and functionalities of a webtool created by PNNL to explore and visualize the End-Use opportunity analysis.

ASHRAE 90.1, Energy Codes, Tableau↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Mass Timber Buildings: Novel Methods Improve Thermal Assessment and Material Use

For nearly a century, thermal demand calculations for buildings have relied on simplified models developed to match the technical constraints of their era. The first standards, introduced in Germany and Austria in 1929, established climate zones and material conductivity coefficients that, with only incremental updates, still underpin many current assessments. Yet, methods such as Hot box testing, originally designed for lightweight insulation, continue to be applied for mass timber buildings, overlooking thermodynamic characteristics confer real-world advantages. Recent research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory incorporates updated methodologies, aligned with ASHRAE Standard 55 (ASHRAE, 2023) accounting for factors such as thermal inertia, inner surface temperatures, emissivity, solar gains, and dynamic outdoor conditions. These factors better reflect observed heating and cooling loads and highlight opportunities for efficient use of materials in mass timber construction. This work provides a framework for designing comfortable, resilient, and resource-efficient buildings while aligning with performance expectations in energy codes.

Pickett, Robert [International Mass Timber Allianc↗

NASA NTRS2012

Application of System Operational Effectiveness Methodology to Space Launch Vehicle Development and Operations

The Department of Defense (DoD) defined System Operational Effectiveness (SOE) model provides an exceptional framework for an affordable approach to the development and operation of space launch vehicles and their supporting infrastructure. The SOE model provides a focal point from which to direct and measure technical effectiveness and process efficiencies of space launch vehicles. The application of the SOE model to a space launch vehicle's development and operation effort leads to very specific approaches and measures that require consideration during the design phase. This paper provides a mapping of the SOE model to the development of space launch vehicles for human exploration by addressing the SOE model key points of measurement including System Performance, System Availability, Technical Effectiveness, Process Efficiency, System Effectiveness, Life Cycle Cost, and Affordable Operational Effectiveness. In addition, the application of the SOE model to the launch vehicle development process is defined providing the unique aspects of space launch vehicle production and operations in lieu of the traditional broader SOE context that examines large quantities of fielded systems. The tailoring and application of the SOE model to space launch vehicles provides some key insights into the operational design drivers, capability phasing, and operational support systems.

Watson, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Efficient Surveillance, Control, and Automation of Geothermal Operations with Advanced Predictive Analytics

Automation and control of geothermal energy production and operations require reliable and efficient predictive tools. While physics-based simulation offers a comprehensive tool for predicting energy production performance in geothermal systems, predicting the behavior of geothermal reservoirs involves complex multi-physics processes with coupling effects, highly uncertain input parameters and subsurface descriptions. Moreover, building, running, and integrating simulation models into standard model calibration and optimization workflows entail significant technical and computational efforts. An emerging alternative to physics-based simulation is data-driven predictive analytics models that have gained popularity in energy industry. In this report, we develop novel predictive models for integration into real-time fault diagnosis and model predictive control algorithms to improve the efficiency of energy production operations in geothermal reservoirs. The report includes two major research Thrust Areas, that is, the surface power plant and the subsurface reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aircraft Icing Analysis of Alternatives

This paper provides a description of a recent comprehensive Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) for icing research. A team of NASA icing subject matter experts (SMEs) was assembled from NASA’s Glenn and Langley Research Centers, which began by gathering inputs from icing stakeholders in industry, Government, and academia. Those inputs, which were grouped into a number of themes, were used by the SMEs to identify needed icing technical elements. Each of these high-level technical elements included the icing physics, modeling capabilities, and experimental capabilities needed to address a particular element. A multivariable analysis technique called TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions) was then applied to prioritize the technical elements for several potential future realities. A large number of icing research needs were identified and analyzed to determine the highest priorities for NASA key focus areas and those that will endure into the future. The primary outcome of the AoA is the identification of legacy and newly identified capability areas in priority order to guide future investment.

Icing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aircraft Icing Analysis of Alternatives

Icing, Rotorcraft↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

IAEA Initiatives that Integrate Stakeholders, Models and Decision Making - 18646

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has initiated an effort to provide stakeholder support services as part of Phase II of the Constraints to Implementing Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation (CIDER II) programs. The intent of this sub-group of CIDER II is to provide members states support in areas of stakeholder communication, engagement and participation, with the goal of building trust in decommissioning and environmental remediation (D and ER) decisions for radioactive contamination and facilities. IAEA has also initiated a follow-on effort to address Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA II), which is aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Member States to simulate radionuclide transfer in the environment, and to ensure appropriate levels of protection from ionizing radiation. Working Group 1 of MODARIA II is focused on the integration of modeling and decision analysis. These two groups have complementary and supporting objectives, which provides an opportunity for collaboration and mutual benefit. The technical integrator is the approach of structured decision making, which follows a five-step process that combines stakeholder values with models through a technically defensible decision analysis. Briefly, the steps are: 1. Provide the context and decision context for the problem; 2. Obtain costs, values and concerns from stakeholders, to develop objectives that need to be achieved (e.g., improve human health, minimize costs, increase jobs); 3. Identify options that might achieve the objectives (e.g., cleanup, institutional controls, education); 4. Develop probabilistic models that connect options to objectives so that the objectives can be evaluated collectively (e.g., a fate and transport and risk model to address the objective of reducing human health risk, a cost model to address costs of taking action); and, 5. Model evaluation, including sensitivity analysis, to determine if an action can be taken with sufficient certainty, or if collection of more data is needed to decrease uncertainty before a decision is made. This approach also supports adaptive management as new data are collected. This approach clarifies the roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts in the decision-making process, where stakeholders specify values, and subject matter experts focus on the models that are needed to evaluate the options. It also provides a technically defensible, reproducible, transparent and traceable approach to all of the components necessary to properly solve the types of complex decision problems that plague radioactive waste management, decommissioning and environmental remediation. This paper introduces the major challenges to implementing such a broad scale of decision analysis, and approaches to overcoming those challenges, which include not only the technical challenges, but also the need to develop capacity in a range of skills not usually accommodated in environmental modeling and includes the need for the IAEA to address decision making in different countries, and with different cultures, religions, political affiliations, and languages. This paper explores the potential for IAEA to benefit from both the CIDER II and MODARIA II programs, and hence to develop a fully integrated approach to effective decision making for radioactive waste management and environmental remediation. Note that there are many people involved in these efforts at the IAEA, and credit belongs to those people for the progress that has been made to date. Our intent here is simply to introduce these IAEA programs at the WM2018 Symposium to provide our perspective and some awareness of some of the directions in which IAEA appears to be headed regarding stakeholder engagement, environmental and risk modeling, data science, and decision analysis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mathematical Model Development and Experimental Verification of Electromagnetic Force Actuators for use in Space Applications

This technical memorandum shows the development of the mathematics needed to model several types of electromagnetic force actuators that may be of interest for use in space applications. The actuators described are capable of providing attractive, repulsive, and longitudinal forces between the actuator and a variety of metal surfaces. Potential applications for these propellant free actuators include spacecraft docking, in-space fabrication, robotic spacecraft inspection and servicing, deflection of metallic debris, and interaction with iron core asteroids (e.g., landing, repelling, and relocating).

Robert C. Youngquist↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accelerating Clean Energy @Scale: Place-Based Solutions

Customized, holistic energy modeling and analysis is conducted across a wide range of geospatial scales -- from global to local. We will describe the value and importance of local, place-based solutions, particularly, how scientific insights, decision support, and technical assistance based on integrated, customized modeling and analysis, and in-depth stakeholder engagement can assist communities in translating their ambitions into implementable action plans.

clean energy↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multiphysics Simulation of DPC Criticality: Scoping Calculations and Coupling Strategy.

Objectives for Multi-Physics Simulations include: Provide a systematic framework for multi-process modeling — Conduct parallel model development efforts that cover the technical areas needed to support criticality consequence screening in performance assessment (PA) and that will be more closely integrated as development proceeds; Investigate separate effects — Allow partitioning of the overall waste package (WP) internal criticality multi-physics modeling effort during development activities, for study of specific processes that can later be coupled if warranted from interpretation of results; Study scaling and bounding approaches — Where possible, represent criticality consequences in PA using simplification of uncertain criticality event frequency and magnitude, bounding of consequences for screening purposes, and scaling of consequences to multiple WPs; and, Integration among participants — Multiple modeling teams (mainly SNL and ORNL, and their collaborators) will work on different parts of the in-package criticality phenomenology. Insights generated this way will be combined for more realistic coupled modeling, and for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗

NASA NTRS2019

Recent Advancements in Modeling and Simulation of Entry Systems at NASA

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems in support of NASA's exploration missions. Mission-tailored research and development in modeling of entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within the Orion and Mars 2020 Programs), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the broad, cross-mission research conducted by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency's only concerted effort toward advancing entry systems across a range of technical disciplines. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Predictive material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. Investments in thermal protection material modeling are geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of handling complex structures, with an eye toward optimizing design performance and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools have been developed to characterize material properties and behavior at the microstructural level, and experimental techniques (molecular beam scattering, micro-computed tomography, among others) have been developed to measure material kinetics, morphology, and other parameters needed to inform and validate detailed simulations. Advancements have also been made in macrostructural simulation capability to enable 3-D system-scale calculations of material response with complex topological features, including differential recession of tile gaps. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. Capacity and capability of the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) have been expanded in recent years and analysis of resulting data has led to several improvements in kinetic models, while simultaneously reducing uncertainties associated with radiative heat transfer predictions. First-principles calculations of fundamental kinetic, thermodynamic, and transport data, along with state-specific models for non-equilibrium flow regimes, have also yielded new insights and have the potential to vastly improve model fidelity. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate entry environments at Mars during dust storms; Studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled and woven thermal protection systems; and Advanced numerical methods to optimize computational analyses for desired accuracy versus cost. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent. With precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals, recent efforts have yielded 6-DOF models of multi-axis control with propulsive descent of both inflatable and rigid ellipsled-like architectures.

Barnhardt, Michael D.↗