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At least 667 records · Page 37

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimal Power System Black start using Inverter-Based Generation

Power system black start readiness is part of the system planning. Utility planners perform periodic studies to assess if their power system is capable of total restoration following a black out. Hydro and diesel generators are the most commonly used black start capable resources by power utilities. However, with increasing penetration of solar generation, inverter-based resources can be considered to provide black start capability. Since the solar inverters can be located at multiple locations throughout the power system, and in view of their unique characteristics, an optimal real-time capable plan is helpful for system operators for faster black start. Black start optimization is a multi stage mixed-integer non-linear optimization which is extremely hard to solve. In this paper, we propose an optimal black start methodology that is easier to solve and scalable in real-time. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on two test systems and illustrate how inverter-based resources can contribute and improve power system restoration.

power system restoration, blackstart, Inverter-bas↗

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

In Situ Infrared Spectroscopy of a Plasma Jet and Data-Driven Solution of Multi-Scale Plasma Chemistry Problems

Multi-scale problems are commonly known in many scientific and engineering fields where microscopic behaviors are coupled with macroscopic processes. This is also an unsolved problem in low-temperature plasma chemistry where hundreds of chemical species are involved in thousands of chemical reactions. To address this problem, a physics-informed data-driven modeling is developed to solve such a multi-scale problem using the experimental Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) measurements of several species’ concentrations. The modeling based on modern machine learning techniques provides concentrations of other relevant species along with the electron temperature and gas temperature at the location of FTIR measurements. For example, the concentrations O, OH, and H 2 O 2 play key roles in plasma-based cancer therapy. This approach overcomes the multi-scale difficulties of microscopic low-temperature plasma chemistry coupling with macroscopic gas flow and allows the acquisition of a full picture of output species concentrations. Presented here for the helium-air jet at atmospheric pressure, the ML-based modeling can be used to describe and possibly control multiscale systems using partial experimental data sets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Who is benefiting from the dramatic decline in U.S. cancer mortality? Place-based evidence of disparities in rates of improvement

After decades of increasing cancer mortality, U.S. rates declined from 1991 to 2019, a 32% decrease. we investigated rates of cancer mortality improvement across 2954 counties and selected characteristics associated with mortality improvements. Data was 21,381,009 county-level neoplasm deaths gleaned from death certificates via CDC WONDER. Analytical techniques included GIS and Moran’s I, OLS, GWR models, and trend comparisons. Counties with the greatest improvement (reduction) in cancer mortality tended to be coastal, higher-income, metropolitan locations. OLS model (R 2 = 0.65) indicated that greatest improvements were observed in counties with higher initial mortality ($\beta =.32$) closely followed by percent urban ($\beta =.31$) and median household income ($\beta =.16$). Whereas percent Black residents ($\beta =-.06$), and percent with education beyond high school ($\beta =-.10$) was less associated on outcomes. Highest income counties were the first to experience improvement in cancer mortality, the highest rates of mortality decline, and the greatest reduction in excess deaths. Even though there was significant improvement in cancer mortality nationally, there were variations in the degree of improvement linked to county location, income, and urbanisation. These results underlie the need to expand place-based initiatives designed to advance cancer health and more equitable improvements in cancer mortality outcomes.

developing world↗

Heterogeneous network topology management and control

In one aspect, the present disclosure may provide devices or systems configured to receive indications of geographic areas, each corresponding to distribution networks, and determine whether the distribution networks overlap. The processor(s) may also be configured to receive parameter value(s) obtained by a device within one distribution network at a location within an overlapping area, and cause device(s) within another distribution network to modify operation based on the parameter value(s). In another aspect, the present disclosure may provide devices that include a voltage sensor to measure a voltage of a power distribution network at a power consumption location that corresponds to the device. The device may be configured to provide at least one cable service to the power consumption location via a cable television (CATV) distribution network and output an indication the measured voltage value.

Cruickshank, III, Robert Fraser↗

The use of subchondral bone topography to approximate the center of rotation of the elbow joint in dogs

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to compare the approximate center of rotation in normal and diseased elbows in dogs. Study design Cross‐sectional study Sample population Computer tomography scans of nine dogs with unilateral fragmented medial coronoid process (FMCP). Methods A board certified radiologist confirmed that each dog had unilateral FMCP, and a normal contralateral elbow. Digital 3D models of all elbow joints were uploaded into a surgical planning software package. Four axes approximating the center of rotation (COR) of elbow joints were generated using five geometric shapes based on subchondral topography of the humeral condyle radius and ulna. Images showing the locations where axes exited the medial and lateral cortex of the humeral condyle were captured and imported into a second software package, for measurement of distances between exit points and the origin of a system of axes. Results In normal joints 20/27 (74%) axes exited the medial cortex, and 25/27 (93%) axes exited the lateral cortex cranial and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. In diseased joints 22/27 (81%) axes exited medial cortex and 19/27 (70%) axes exited the lateral cortex, caudal and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. Conclusion Based on CT‐ derived geometry, the COR of elbow affected with FMCP was generally more caudal than normal. Clinical significance External landmarks approximating the location of the elbow COR are provided, and while not validated, may assist in planning, creation, and assessment of procedures for FMCP.

Berger, Chen↗

Plasma pressure profiles in a sheared-flow-stabilized Z-pinch

We report the plasma pressure reached inside the central plasma column of a sheared-flow-stabilized Z-pinch using Thomson scattering measurements. Building on previously reported experimental results and the analysis methods established for the high temperature and moderate density plasmas generated on the FuZE device, we show evidence of a central plasma region with higher electron temperature and density, which is consistent with a pinch behavior. Elevated electron temperatures up to 2.25 ± 0.8 keV and densities up to (4.9±0.2)×1017 cm−3 are observed to temporally coincide with the fusion neutron production from the plasma. Reconstructed plasma pressure profiles highlight the presence of a several millimeter-wide column with elevated pressure whose location varies shot-to-shot. The plasma pressure rises as neutron production from the deuterium plasma increases, reaching a peak value of 2.6 kBar. This peak value is consistent with a radially force-balanced pinch equilibrium model based on the measured ∼320 kA pinch current. Complete datasets were obtained at two axial locations, 10 and 20 cm axial position from the tip of the central electrode, which corroborate the estimated neutron source axial lengths.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Probing Galaxy Evolution in Massive Clusters Using ACT and DES: Splashback as a Cosmic Clock

In this work, we measure the projected number density profiles of galaxies and the splashback feature in clusters selected by the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect from the Advanced Atacama Cosmology Telescope (AdvACT) survey using galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The splashback radius is consistent with CDM-only simulations and is located at 2.4$_{-0.4}^{+0.3}$ Mpch -1 . We split the galaxies on color and find significant differences in their profile shapes. Red and green-valley galaxies show a splashback-like minimum in their slope profile consistent with theory, while the bluest galaxies show a weak feature at a smaller radius. We develop a mapping of galaxies to subhalos in simulations and assign colors based on infall time onto their hosts. We find that the shift in location of the steepest slope and different profile shapes can be mapped to the average time of infall of galaxies of different colors. The steepest slope traces a discontinuity in the phase space of dark matter halos. By relating spatial profiles to infall time, we can use splashback as a clock to understand galaxy quenching. We find that red galaxies have on average been in clusters over 3.2 Gyr, green galaxies about 2.2 Gyr, while blue galaxies have been accreted most recently and have not reached apocenter. Using the full radial profiles, we fit a simple quenching model and find that the onset of galaxy quenching occurs after a delay of about a gigayear and that galaxies quench rapidly thereafter with an exponential timescale of 0.6 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of solar-based electrical vehicles charging stations integrated with hydrogen production

With the growing interest in adopting both commercial and residential electric vehicles (EVs) utilizing green renewable energy, the techno-economic assessment of EV charging stations with solar energy is a critical aspect of the transition to sustainable transportation. However, battery storage capacity for variable solar energy production is becoming increasingly less cost-effective due to the higher Lithium price. Complementing solar energy production and battery storage, the potential of combining green hydrogen fuel energy integration with solar energy for EV charging stations can provide a sustainable alternative to reach carbon-free transportation. This research aims to assess the technical and economic viability of grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV)-based EV charging stations across Kentucky based on existing EV load profiles. The study considers different PV system sizes, locations, orientations, and the impact of net metering policies and electricity tariffs on the profitability of the PV systems. Further, using excess PV energy, Lithium-Ion batteries will be charged, which will be assessed considering the techno-economic and environmental impacts of green EV charging stations. To further enhance green renewable energy production, we also investigated the feasibility of on-grid PV-based EV charging stations with Lithium-Ion batteries charged during low tariff periods. In comparison with these scenarios, we studied the potential benefits of integrating green hydrogen energy production using excess solar energy with and without governmental incentives. Furthermore, we assess the environmental impact of these green EV charging stations across Kentucky. Our study indicates that EV stations across Kentucky have similar techno-economic feasibility with insignificant deviation in the levelized cost of electricity, payback period, and PV energy fraction with/without Li-Ion batteries. However, with green hydrogen production, the marginal H 2 production cost indicates the first scenario (on-grid PV energy charging) is the most significant, roughly 10 USD/Kg, which is similar to 1.5 times higher than the second (charging during low-tariff periods) and the third scenarios (power grid to satisfy the demand deficit - approximately 6.5 USD/Kg). From the environmental perspective, the second scenario would be a good option for either hybrid EV/H 2 or EV charging stations in Kentucky, factoring in the hydrogen production cost and the carbon footprint.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Winter connectivity and leapfrog migration in a migratory passerine

Abstract Technological advances in migratory tracking tools have revealed a remarkable diversity in migratory patterns. One such pattern is leapfrog migration, where individuals that breed further north migrate to locations further south. Here, we analyzed migration patterns in the Painted Bunting ( Passerina ciris ) using a genetic‐based approach. We started by mapping patterns of genetic variation across geographic space (called a genoscape) using 386 individuals from 25 populations across the breeding range. We then genotyped an additional 230 samples from 31 migration stopover locations and 178 samples from 16 wintering locations to map patterns of migratory connectivity. Our analyses of genetic variation across the breeding range show the existence of four genetically distinct groups within the species: Eastern, Southwestern, Louisiana, and Central groups. Subsequent assignment of migrating and wintering birds to genetic groups illustrated that birds from the Central group migrated during the fall via western Mexico or southern Texas, spent the winter from northeastern Mexico to Panama, and migrated north via the Gulf Coast of Mexico. While Louisiana birds overlapped with Central birds on their spring migratory routes along the Gulf Coast, we found that Louisiana birds had a more restricted wintering distribution in the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. Further estimation of the straight‐line distance from the predicted breeding location to the wintering location revealed that individuals sampled at lower winter latitudes traveled to greater distances (i.e., the predicted breeding area was further north; p > .001), confirming that these species exhibit a leapfrog migration pattern. Overall, these results demonstrate the utility of a genoscape‐based approach for identifying range‐wide patterns of migratory connectivity such as leapfrog migration with a high degree of clarity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation driven adaptive sampling for neutron-diffraction based strain mapping of additively manufactured parts

Neutron diffraction based strain mapping is a useful technique for measuring residual strains in additively manufactured (AM) metal parts. The measurement is traditionally done by scanning the sample in a point-wise raster pattern to extract the strain at each position. Since the overall scan can span several hours, adaptive sampling approaches using Bayesian optimization based on Gaussian process (BO-GP) regression have been introduced—demonstrating that even with a fraction of the typically made measurements the dominant strain patterns in the sample can be reconstructed. However, the parameters of the BO-GP algorithm have to be carefully chosen for best performance, and the movement time between arbitrary points can offset the time savings from a reduced number of measurement locations. In this paper, we propose algorithms to refine the BO-GP based methods by using simulations of strain patterns in AM parts based on the materials and the process used to print them. We demonstrate that the simulated strain patterns can be used to help choose better parameters for the BO-GP based framework—leading to low reconstruction error for the final strain pattern. Furthermore, we show that the strain mapping experiment can be initialized with a sampling pattern learnt from the simulation data and ordered to reduce movement time, dramatically enabling reduction in the overall time required to run the baseline BO-GP method.

Gaussian process regression↗

Location Selection of Fast-Charging Station for Heavy-Duty EVs Using GIS and Grid Analysis: Preprint

This work presents a systematic methodology for the location selection of fast-charging stations for heavy-duty Electric Vehicles (EVs) based on both geospatial and electrical grid analysis. The geo-spatial analysis is based on real-world geographic information system (GIS) data of road networks and existing supportive infrastructures. The grid analysis is implemented based on node level analysis of potential impacts on voltages and power losses in distribution system. A case study using realistic three-phase unbalanced distribution feeder from California and extracted real-world GIS data is used to demonstrate the intuitiveness and effectiveness of the proposed methodology for the location selection of fast charging station for heavy duty EVs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Over-Stoichiometric Metastabilization of Cation-Disordered Rock Salts

Cation-disordered rock salts (DRXs) are well known for their potential to realize the goal of achieving scalable Ni- and Co-free high-energy-density Li-ion batteries. Unlike in most cathode materials, the disordered cation distribution may lead to more factors that control the electrochemistry of DRXs. An important variable that is not emphasized by research community is regarding whether a DRX exists in a more thermodynamically stable form or a more metastable form. Moreover, within the scope of metastable DRXs, over-stoichiometric DRXs, which allow relaxation of the site balance constraint of a rock salt structure, are particularly underexplored. In this work, these findings are reported in locating a generally applicable approach to “metastabilize” thermodynamically stable Mn-based DRXs to metastable ones by introducing Li over-stoichiometry. Further, the over-stoichiometric metastabilization greatly stimulates more redox activities, enables better reversibility of Li deintercalation/intercalation, and changes the energy storage mechanism. The metastabilized DRXs can be transformed back to the thermodynamically stable form, which also reverts the electrochemical properties, further contrasting the two categories of DRXs. This work enriches the structural and compositional space of DRX families and adds new pathways for rationally tuning the properties of DRX cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electrifying High-Efficiency Future Communities: Impact on Energy, Emissions, and Grid

To combat climate change and meet decarbonization goals, the building sector is improving energy efficiency and electrifying end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. All-electric buildings are becoming a trend among new constructions, introducing opportunities for decarbonization but also technical challenges and research gaps. For instance, further investigation is needed to understand how the adoption of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and distributed energy resources (DERs) in all-electric communities would affect energy consumption, carbon emissions, and grid planning. This paper presents a case study of a mixed-use, all-electric community located in Denver, Colorado. We use URBANopt TM , a physics-based urban energy modeling platform to model the community and then evaluate the impact of EEMs and DERs (i.e., photovoltaics [PV], electric vehicles [EVs], and batteries) on the community's energy usage, carbon emissions, and peak demand. The results show that adding EEMs and PV led to both energy consumption and carbon emissions reductions across all building types. However, we saw fairly limited impact of EEMs and PV on buildings' peak demand in our case. Additionally, due to overnight EV charging activities and higher grid carbon intensity at night, the carbon emissions in multifamily buildings have a noticeable increase compared to scenarios without vehicles. Finally, the addition of batteries helped reduce peak demand by 11%-29%. The modeling workflow and evaluation methods can be applied to similar communities to evaluate their performance and the effect of integrating EEMs and DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Risk matrix for legacy wells within the Area of Review (AoR) of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) projects

The success of CCS depends on the capacity, injectivity, and confinement by the storage medium. Thousands of wells drilled over the past century with the intention to find the trapped oil and gas may penetrate the containment seals. These wells may provide leakage pathways for the CO 2 to escape and contaminate the underground sources of drinking water (USDW) or reach the surface in the worst-case scenario. Identifying the risky wells penetrating the containment seals and predicting their current as well as future well integrity is the most challenging task when limited data is available. Here, this paper proposes a unique methodology for risk assessment of the wells penetrating the containment seals based on the proximity of these wells from the proposed injection location, mechanical integrity, and accessibility of these wells over the lifecycle of the CCS project. This helps in identifying the wells which need immediate attention from the wells that need little to no attention. It also highlights the corrective actions necessary for the success of the CCS project as well as help estimate the approximate cost required to perform the corrective actions. This methodology focuses on all wells (producers, injectors, orphan, abandoned, water, stratigraphic, etc) while the majority of the studies found in literature focused on wells with sustained casing pressure (SCP) reports and cement bond logs (CBL). The proposed risk matrix, if applied to future CCS projects across the globe, will uniformly categorize the wells within the Area of Review (AoR).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network

The purpose of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is to establish a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions. The Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) is developing the International Monitoring System (IMS) that includes a global network of 80 stations to monitor for airborne radionuclides upon entry into force of the CTBT. All 80 radionuclide stations will monitor for particulate radionuclides and at least half of the stations will monitor for radioxenon. The airborne radionuclide monitoring is an important verification technology both for the detection of a radionuclide release and in the determination of whether the release event originates from a nuclear explosion as opposed to an industrial use of nuclear materials. Nuclear power plants and many medical isotope production facilities release radioxenon into the atmosphere. Low levels of a few particulate isotopes, such as iodine, may also be released. Detections of multiple isotopes are useful for screening the radionuclide samples for relevance to the Treaty. This paper examines the anticipated joint detections in the IMS of noble gas and particulate isotopes from underground nuclear explosions where breaches in the underground containment vents from low levels to up to 1% of the radionuclide inventory of the resulting fission products to the atmosphere. Detection probabilities are based on 844 simulated release events spaced out at 17 release locations and one year in time. Six different release (venting) scenarios, including two fractionated scenarios, were analyzed. When ranked by detection probability, 11 particulate isotopes and one noble gas isotope ( 133 Xe) appear in the top 20 isotopes for all six release scenarios. Using the 11 particulate isotopes and the one noble gas isotope, the IMS has nearly the same detection probability as when 45 particulate and 4 noble gas isotopes are used. Thus, a limited list of relevant radionuclides may be sufficient for treaty verification purposes. The probability that at least one particulate and at least one radioxenon isotope would be detected in the IMS from the release events ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 depending on the release scenario.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗