SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of a Thermal Energy Storage System to a Central Plant

Increasing energy demand and rising peak loads present significant challenges for energy management in commercial and institutional settings. As climate change drives greater cooling needs, central plants must navigate the complex tradeoffs between operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems offer a viable solution by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, thereby reducing peak demand, lowering utility expenses, and improving grid resilience. However, the success of TES implementation hinges on appropriate system sizing, effective control strategies, and alignment with local utility rate structures. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills. Drawing on historical load profiles and utility tariffs, we assess three TES sizing approaches and their corresponding control strategies from both energy and economic perspectives. This article utilizes a model-based approach to assess the impact of TES sizing and control strategies on the techno-economic feasibility of integrating TES into an existing central plant. The models employed for this analysis were calibrated using 4 years of historical data. Here, the results demonstrated that utility tariffs and the campus's operational profiles dictate the most feasible sizing and control methods. The findings offer valuable insights for institutions and commercial building managers exploring sustainable energy solutions. By demonstrating how optimized TES strategies can improve operational efficiency while achieving financial savings, this study highlights the potential for TES to align performance with cost effectiveness in real-world applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Life Cycle Analysis and Life Cycle Costing for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Management and Materials Redeployment to Support ARPA-E’s Potential Program on Waste to Energy and Materials

Municipal solid waste infrastructure in the United States contains complex supply chains to transport, sort, and sequester waste. This project developed models to estimate the environmental and economic costs of waste infrastructure in the U.S. using data from several municipalities. Life cycle costing (LCC) models were developed for waste management relevant supply chain steps, including waste collection, sorting, landfilling, waste-to-energy, ash processing, and recycling. A waste-to-materials and energy (WTM&E) life cycle analysis (LCA) and LCC dashboard was developed in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and an LCC tool was developed for additional analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1985

GPACC program cost work breakdown structure-dictionary. General purpose aft cargo carrier study, volume 3

The results of detailed cost estimates and economic analysis performed on the updated Model 101 configuration of the general purpose Aft Cargo Carrier (ACC) are given. The objective of this economic analysis is to provide the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with information on the economics of using the ACC on the Space Transportation System (STS). The detailed cost estimates for the ACC are presented by a work breakdown structure (WBS) to ensure that all elements of cost are considered in the economic analysis and related subsystem trades. Costs reported by WBS provide NASA with a basis for comparing competing designs and provide detailed cost information that can be used to forecast phase C/D planning for new projects or programs derived from preliminary conceptual design studies. The scope covers all STS and STS/ACC launch vehicle cost impacts for delivering payloads to a 160 NM low Earth orbit (LEO).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1972

The Pioneer Jupiter magnetic control program.

The Pioneer Jupiter spacecraft was required to have a sufficiently small magnetic field that accurate interplanetary-magnetic field measurements would not be compromised. In order to control the magnetic field throughout the program a running account of spacecraft magnetic fields was maintained by means of a periodically updated magnetic model. This model was used to make economic tradeoffs in subsystem magnetic moments within the allowed magnetic budget. The program was culminated with a measurement of the magnetic field of the spacecraft. A description of the magnetic tests and a comparison with estimates made with the magnetic model are also presented.

Sanders, N. L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Guide for Improved Resource Adequacy Assessments in Evolving Power Systems: Institutional and Technical Dimensions

This paper identifies and evaluates issues in traditional resource adequacy (RA) assessment practices, and how adjusting these practices may affect and depend on existing institutional arrangements for planning and procurement. The paper proposes a technical-institutional roadmap that would allow regulators in vertically-integrated jurisdictions and system planners and operators in restructured jurisdictions to revise RA practices across a range of components. First, we compile a critical review of current RA assessment practices based on (1) interviews with RA practitioners and (2) a review of recent technical literature. We find that (i) RA may need to expand beyond capacity adequacy to ensure energy adequacy – relevant for energy-limited resources such as storage – and potentially some form of ancillary service adequacy (e.g. enough ramping-up and ramping-down capability in the system); (ii) chronological hourly simulations for all hours in the year are the current best practice; (iii) metrics and models used do not reflect economic criteria in system operation and loss of load; and (iv) there is a need to improve representation of weather dependencies and weather data. Second, we review planning and RA reports for several private and public entities that plan generation and/or transmission infrastructure in the continental U.S. to look for existing practices involving resilience assessments. We find no systematic treatment of the costs of extreme weather and other hazards, the benefits of resilience, and resilience metrics in planning analyses and no systematic treatment of resilience metrics, methods, and outcomes for resource adequacy purposes. Third, we create a technical framework for probabilistic RA assessment and use it to study how key choices about how to model power system operations affect the values that are obtained for RA metrics. We find that (i) non-economic dispatch schemes that ignore economic objectives can lead to accurate RA assessments when coordinated with detailed operational strategies; (ii) multi-year data is critical to capture a wide variety of system conditions; (iii) not incorporating transmission limits into RA assessment could lead to substantial underestimation of traditional “expected value” RA metrics; and (iv) new RA metrics that capture event-specific shortfall characteristics should be used as supplements to traditional metrics. Finally, we examine RA assessments and use this information to propose a guide of evolving industry standards for resource adequacy assessments in resource planning and transmission planning. We report minimum, best, and frontier practices for temporal resolution of assessments, metrics and targets, weather data, load forecasting, characterization of variable renewable resources, characterization of transmission and market transactions, RA modeling and integration with planning processes, and capacity accreditation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A strategy for automated core design to increase economic viability and minimize fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility in high-burnup cores

The nuclear industry aims to increase the cycle length of pressurized water reactors from 18 to 24 months to increase power plant capacity factors and economic viability. These cycle length extensions will inherently require fuel rods to exceed the current peak rod average burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. A chief concern of operating beyond the current burnup limit is the fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomenon in which pulverized fuel fragments can axially relocate and escape through a burst in the cladding formed during a loss-of-coolant accident. In this work, we demonstrate an approach for automating core design employing an optimization tool based on a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing algorithm to produce pressurized water reactor core designs with two different optimization objectives. The two objectives were to produce core designs with (1) mitigated FFRD susceptibility while achieving 24-month cycle lengths (2) maximum cycle length with no regard for the likelihood of FFRD. Batch size was considered in tandem with both cases to maximize economic viability. The PARCS nodal model was the primary reactor physics tool used in the optimizations and used nuclear cross sections calculated with 2D Polaris lattice physics models. Reactor performance and safety characteristics of the optimized cores were verified using high-fidelity Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications models. The core designs produced by the optimization tool are compared with each other and to a high-burnup core design produced and analyzed in previous works to highlight the fuel management strategies that may enhance high-burnup reactor safety and economic viability. The optimized cores satisfied their respective objective functions, producing a maximum cycle length of 720 effective full-power days in one core design and one that may reduce FFRD susceptibility by up to 50% based on the first-order approximation to FFRD risk formulated in this work. The optimized cores met most constraints but exceeded the hot channel factor limit, especially in FFRD cases where fresh fuel carried more power. Furthermore, this highlights the need for future lattice-level optimizations and broader assembly options.

Cycle length↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Abstract Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Milwaukee using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (InVEST)

Milwaukee County has experienced an increase in flooding due to climate change and urbanization. The frequency and severity of flooding vary spatially due to differences in land cover, surface permeability, and infrastructure. Marginalized communities tend to experience disproportionately high flooding and damage due to infrastructural inequalities and limited access to resources. To quantify these differences, we used the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model to calculate and create maps of runoff retention, nominal flood depth, and economic damage to buildings in Milwaukee. Our model inputs included land cover, surface permeability, and rainfall. To inform our precipitation inputs, we used NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) and National Weather Service (NWS) data. We assessed the relationship between flood risk and social and environmental spatial data including redlining, racial demographics, greenspace, and community resilience. The data demonstrate that flood risk is higher in historically redlined neighborhoods, majority Hispanic and Black census block groups, areas that lack parks and trees, and areas of low community resilience as measured by the Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). These findings will support our partners, Groundwork Milwaukee and Groundwork USA, in their efforts to promote the equitable distribution of resources and support environmental health in urban spaces. The end products of this project provide our partners with tools to assess urban flooding vulnerability, guide future intervention projects, quantify the effects of environmental injustice, and improve stakeholder access to data.

Madeleine Tango↗

NASA NTRS2022

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flooding Vulnerability in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Madeleine Tango↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges in Tracking Waste Reduction Performance Improvement in Manufacturing Plants

The recently released Circularity Gap Report 2023 by Circle Economy Foundation found that the circularity score for the global economy is declining. This indicates that material extraction from virgin sources is climbing over earlier years. As per data released by US Geological Survey, material use in the US economy has increased exponentially with the expanding US economy over last century. EPA tracked municipal solid waste from 1960 to 2018 and found that 50% of the waste is destined for landfills. EPA estimates that US industry is responsible for 2.7 billion ton of solid non-hazardous waste annually in our mostly linear economy model. The circular economy framework aims at decoupling economic value generation from virgin materials extraction from nature. The linear model of material extraction and disposal at end of life is highly unsustainable. Manufacturing companies have realized this and in their commitments to sustainability are adopting ambitious waste reduction targets. Through Better Plants program US Department of Energy has established Waste Reduction Network where it is offering technical assistance to partners to achieve these ambitious waste reduction goals. Basic requirements of establishing a target include identifying a baseline, quantifying waste performance, and measuring progress over time. One problem faced by industry is the unstandardized metrics to quantify waste performance that may not be well suited to demonstrate progress. In this paper, we research methods traditionally used to measure waste performance and highlight advantages, gaps and limitations of each method. Suitability of the methods applicable to different manufacturing circumstances are also examined. Finally, we present a case study of a large manufacturer that faced inconsistencies in their tracked measurement metric. A solution was proposed to alter the methodology to enable more accurate waste performance tracking against a baseline.

Chaudhari, Subodh↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: a U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Potential Economic Values of Low-Vapor-Pressure Gasoline-Range Bio-Blendstocks: Property Estimation, and Blending Optimization

Adding non-traditional blendstocks derived from biomass into gasoline has gained renewed interest since it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially enhance fuel properties and boost engine efficiencies. A competitive bio-blendstock candidate should have either lower prices or superior properties or both relative to conventional gasoline blending components. Gasoline is a mixture of hundreds compounds specified by properties rather than compositions. The addition of bio-blendstocks, most likely oxygenates, will modify the property mixing rules due to the non-ideal interactions between polar and nonpolar components. This paper presents an equation-of-state-based model for predicting Reid vapor pressure, reduced order non-linear property blending models for computing key properties of final gasoline products, and a blending optimization approach to identify key economic drivers. This paper also evaluates the economic values of bio-blendstocks to petroleum refiners using those models. In additional to ethanol, six low-vapor-pressure bio-blendstock candidates were evaluated: i-propanol, n-propanol, i-butanol, diisobutylene, cyclopentanone, and a mixture of furans. Reid vapor pressure, distillation temperatures, and octane numbers were identified as the key economic drivers of adding bio-blendstock. The economic values of those bio-blendstocks range from 2.22 to 4.00 US dollar per gasoline gallon equivalent in 2013 to 2017 5-year averaged price basis. The bio-blendstocks with higher octane numbers may have higher economic values. The uncertainties in property predictions may lead to roughly 15% deviation in the economic value evaluation.

Jiang, Yuan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Feasibility of Ocean-Based Renewable Energy in the Gulf of Mexico

This paper summarizes a comprehensive feasibility assessment of six offshore renewable energy sources in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to potentially provide utility-scale electricity from the Outer Continental Shelf (federal waters) and state waters to land-based grids. Overall, the primary objective is to inform future energy planning. The authors evaluated offshore wind, wave energy, tidal energy, ocean-based solar photovoltaics (PV), ocean current, and ocean thermal energy conversion. Of these energy resources, offshore wind was the most viable option and was the focus of the second part of the study. The technical challenges of developing offshore wind in the GOM are discussed including hurricane design for turbines and substructures, as well as turbine solutions to overcome lower wind regimes. In addition, advantages to offshore wind development in the GOM are described including proximity to oil and gas supply chains. Economic analysis using established cost models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory identified hypothetical project locations where net value of offshore wind was the highest, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for three sites: Port Isabel, Port Arthur, and Pensacola. Offshore wind LCOE in the GOM was found to be higher than those in sites along the north and mid-Atlantic coasts, but decreasing cost trajectories indicate the possibility of economic viability for locations in Texas and west Louisiana after 2030. The extrapolated 2030 LCOE values range from 73 dollars per MWh (Site 1, Port Isabel) and 79 dollars per MWh (Site 3, Port Arthur) to 91 dollars per MWh (Site 5, Pensacola).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparing the economic performance of ice storage and batteries for buildings with on-site PV through model predictive control and optimal sizing

Integrating renewable energy and energy storage systems provides a way of operating the electrical grid system more energy efficiently and stably. Thermal storage and batteries are the most common devices for integration. However, it is not clear which integrated storage system performs better in terms of overall economics. Ice storage has low initial and maintenance costs, but there is an efficiency penalty for charging of storage and it can only shift electrical loads associated with building cooling requirements. A battery's round-trip efficiency, on the contrary, is quite consistent and batteries can be used to shift both HVAC and non-HVAC loads. However, batteries have greater initial costs and a shorter life. Finally, this research presents a tool, using model predictive control and optimal sizing, and provides a case study for comparing life-cycle economics of battery and ice storage systems for commercial buildings that have chillers for cooling and an on-site photovoltaic system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Obtaining an equivalent beam

In modeling a complex structure the researcher was faced with a component that would have logical appeal if it were modeled as a beam. The structure was a mast of a robot controlled gantry crane. The structure up to this point already had a large number of degrees of freedom, so the idea of conserving grid points by modeling the mast as a beam was attractive. The researcher decided to make a separate problem of of the mast and model it in three dimensions with plates, then extract the equivalent beam properties by setting up the loading to simulate beam-like deformation and constraints. The results could then be used to represent the mast as a beam in the full model. A comparison was made of properties derived from models of different constraints versus manual calculations. The researcher shows that the three-dimensional model is ineffective in trying to conform to the requirements of an equivalent beam representation. If a full 3-D plate model were used in the complete representation of the crane structure, good results would be obtained. Since the attempt is to economize on the size of the model, a better way to achieve the same results is to use substructuring and condense the mast to equivalent end boundary and intermediate mass points.

Butler, Thomas G.↗