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At least 649 records · Page 36

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Status of the Correlation Process of the V-HAB Simulation with Ground Tests and ISS Telemetry Data

The Virtual Habitat (V-HAB) is a dynamic Life Support System (LSS) simulation, created to investigate future human spaceflight missions. V-HAB provides the capability to optimize LSS during early design phases. Furthermore, it allows simulation of worst case scenarios which cannot be tested in reality. In a nutshell, the tool allows the testing of LSS robustness by means of computer simulations. V-HAB is a modular simulation consisting of a: 1. Closed Environment Module 2. Crew Module 3. Biological Module 4. Physio-Chemical Module The focus of the paper will be the correlation and validation of V-HAB against ground test and flight data. The ECLSS technologies (CDRA, CCAA, OGA, etc.) are correlated one by one against available ground test data, which is briefly described in this paper. The technology models in V-HAB are merged to simulate the ISS ECLSS. This simulation is correlated against telemetry data from the ISS, including the water recovery system and the air revitalization system. Finally, an analysis of the results is included in this paper.

Ploetner, Peter↗

Interpretation of ozone temperature correlations. II - Analysis of SBUV ozone data

In an effort to understand the behavior of ozone in the transition region, the terms in the perturbation continuity equation have been evaluated from solar backscattered ultraviolet ozone data, National Meteorological Center temperature data, and geostrophic winds derived from the temperature data at 2 mbar, winter 1978-1979. A linear parameterization is used to estimate the chemical source term. The perturbation ozone field calculated by integrating the net forcing evaluated from the data compares well with the measured perturbation ozone field. There are occasions during the winter when the sum of the dynamic terms is small due to cancellation, and the ozone and temperature perturbations are anticorrelated. The -1 correlation between the ozone and temperature perturbations does not necessarily imply that chemical forcing is dominant.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Particle dynamics associated with the space environment

A major factor in dust dynamics in a microgravity environment is the absence of settling; hence, Spacelab air will contain larger particles than a comparable laboratory on earth. In addition, the presence of low level acceleration fluctuations (thruster firings, crew motions, etc.) could inhibit dust removal by surface scavenging. Because of the presence of larger particles, aerosol dynamics at larger Reynolds numbers must be considered. An accurate drag coefficient for spherical particles was developed for the higher Reynolds number phenomena. A general graphic correlation for the drag coefficient as a function of Reynolds and Knudsen numbers was developed based on currently available drag data for spheres. The general equations that govern dust dynamics were reviewed.

Sandborn, V. A.↗

A study of large, medium and small scale structures in the topside ionosphere

Alouette and ISIS data were studied for large, medium, and small scale structures in the ionosphere. Correlation was also sought with measurements by other satellites, such as the Atmosphere Explorer C and E and the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellites, of both neutrals and ionization, and with measurements by ground facilities, such as the incoherent scatter radars. Large scale coherent wavelike structures were found from ISIS 2 electron density contours from above the F peak to nearly the satellite altitude. Such structures were also found to correlate with the observation by AE-C below the F peak during a conjunction of the two satellites. Vertical wavefronts found in the upper F region suggest the dominance of diffusion along field lines as well. Also discovered were multiple, evenly spaced field-aligned ducts in the F region that, at low latitudes, extended to the other hemisphere and were in the form of field-aligned sheets in the east-west direction. Low latitude heating events were discovered that could serve as sources for waves in the ionosphere.

Gross, Stanley H.↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

Fracture toughness/Young's modulus correlation for low-density fibrous silica bodies

Fracture toughness and static Young's modulus were measured for the low-density silic fiber materials used as tiles in the thermal protection system of the Space Shuttle. The fracture behavior was found to be in excellent agreement with a previously formulated micromechanical model and allowed both (density) classes of tile material to be correlated to a single function. A similar correlation was also found between strength and Young's modulus, which is the basis of a nondestructive evaluation test for these materials. It was shown that the value of Young's modulus determined from a dynamic test can be substantially greater than that determined in a static mechanical test. This effect must be taken into account in the correlation. Finally, it was also determined that these materials have significant variations in Kc, both within and between production units, so that the strength variability in these materials is dependent on both fracture toughness and flaw-size variations.

Green, D. J.↗

Principal sources and dispersal patterns of suspended particulate matter in nearshore surface waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean and the Hawaiian Islands

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 green and red band imagery supplemented by U-2 photographs provides synoptic views of turbid, nearshore, near-surface bodies of water which adds to the body of knowledge about the coastal ocean necessary for a thorough understanding of the dynamic environment. Tubidity and suspended sediment measurements made in the Gulf of the Farallones correlate well with water tonal patterns visible on satellite imagery. Three successively seaward zones of turbid water could be delineated. Secchi disc visibility tests were the most definitive, ranging from or = 2 meters in the main plume, to almost 3 meters in the second zone of turbid water, to 4 meters in the furthest seaward zone of turbid water measured. These variations in water clarity were reinforced by suspended sediment concentrations which ranged from 26-28 mg/1, to 20-24 mg/1, to 11-15 mg/1, respectively, in each of the three masses of water. Transmissiometer readings were basically in agreement with the suspended sediment and Secchi disc values measured. Satellite imagery and U-2 photographs of the California coastal zone taken early in April 1973 show numerous plumes of suspended sediment being deflected southward. This indicates a southward flow of the nearshore, near-surface waters, a reversal from that noted in January 1973.

Carlson, P. R.↗

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 2: Skylab analytical and test model data

The orbital configuration test modal data, analytical test correlation modal data, and analytical flight configuration modal data are presented. Tables showing the generalized mass contributions (GMCs) for each of the thirty tests modes are given along with the two dimensional mode shape plots and tables of GMCs for the test correlated analytical modes. The two dimensional mode shape plots for the analytical modes and uncoupled and coupled modes of the orbital flight configuration at three development phases of the model are included.

Demchak, L.↗

Dynamic polarizabilities of two-electron atoms, with rigorous upper and lower bounds

Methods are described for calculating rigorous upper and lower bounds to dynamic dipole polarizabilities for frequencies up to and beyond the first excitation threshold, even when (as usual) the field-free problem cannot be solved exactly. These methods were employed to calculate rigorous bounds to the dynamic polarizabilities of the two-electron atoms H(-), He, and Li(+), using well correlated trial wavefunctions up to 135 terms in length. The majority of previous theoretical and experimental results for these atoms can thereby be ruled out, including the highly precise Starkschall-Gordon values, which had heretofore appeared to be the most accurate available.

Glover, R. M.↗

A theory of local and global processes which affect solar wind electrons. 2: Experimental support

The microscopic characteristics of the Coulomb cross section show that there are three natural subpopulations for plasma electrons: the subthermals with local kinetic energy E kT sub c; the transthermals with kT sub c E 7 kT sub c and the extrathermals E 7 kT sub c. Data from three experimental groups on three different spacecraft in the interplanetary medium over a radial range are presented to support the five interrelations projected between solar wind electron properties and changes in the interplanetary medium: (1) subthermals respond primarily to local changes (compression and rarefactions) in stream dynamics; (2) the extrathermal fraction of the ambient electron density should be anti-correlated with the asymptotic bulk speed; (3) the extrathermal "temperature" should be anti-correlated with the local wind speed at 1 AU; (4) the heat flux carried by electrons should be anti-correlated with the local bulk speed; and (5) the extrathermal differential 'temperature' should be nearly independent of radius within 1 AU.

Scudder, J. D.↗

The photometric properties of brightest cluster galaxies. II - SIT and CCD surface photometry

Surface photometry of the first-ranked galaxy in 108 Abell clusters is presented. Galaxy structure, as parameterized by simple Hubble law models, is found to correlate with galaxy absolute magnitude and cluster structure. All the structure data support the dynamical friction evolution model. Twenty-eight percent of the galaxies have multiple component nuclei; the short lifetimes of such systems provide the best available evidence that ongoing evolution actually occurs. Average magnitude and structure evolution rates are derived from the data.

Hoessel, J. G.↗

Modal test and analysis correlation

Modal testing plays a significant role in experimentally measuring the modal parameters used directly for response analysis of spacecraft or indirectly to update a mathematical model for use in response analysis. Developments in modal testing and correlation of results to analytical models are discussed. Several procedures to semi-automate correlation of resonant frequency and mode shape test data to the model have been shown to be valid for hypothetical problems but have not been successful in practice. Improving the correlation of frequencies and mode shapes does not necessarily improve the correlation of modal force coefficients. The paper discusses other parameters, such as kinetic energy and strain energy, which may be more significant in the correlation process. Because the most demanding requirement of a modal test is in determining dynamic loads, the authors asssume that objective, minimally discussing theoretical developments, summarizing their results, and giving sample data.

Wada, B. K.↗

Transport Processes in the Upper Atmosphere

A proposed study to measure aerodynamic and heat transfer coefficients within the thermo-fluid-dynamic range experienced by a tethered satellite and to compare the coefficients with previous correlations is discussed. Tests are proposed on a satellite of existing design, on a satellite design consisting of models carried aboard, and on a newly designed satellite devoted to energy, mass, and momentum transfer studies on particular geometries.

Carlomagno, G. M.↗

Relationship between atmospheric CO2 variations and a satellite-derived vegetation index

Weekly data on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), obtained from the advanced very-high-resolution radiometer sensors flown on the NOAA's polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, were correlated with monthly changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration measured at the surface stations in Alaska, Hawaii, and the South Pole in the 1982-1984 period. While the South Pole data showed no relationship between CO2 concentration and the NDVI, the CO2 data taken at Alaska and Hawaii showed inverse correlation with the NDVI, demonstrating a measurable link between the CO2 drawdowns and the dynamics of NDVI, which in turn reflect the dynamics of photosynthesis. The data suggest that satellite data can be used for estimations of terrestrial photosynthetic activity.

Tucker, C. J.↗

Venus - Dead or alive?

In situ nightside electric field observations from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter have been interpreted as evidence of extensive lightning in the lower atmosphere of Venus. The scenario, including proposed evidence of clustering of lightning over surface highland regions, has encouraged the acceptance of currently active volcanic output as part of several investigations of the dynamics and chemistry of the atmosphere and the geology of the planet. However, the correlation between the 100-hertz electric field events attributed to lightning and nightside ionization troughs resulting from the interaction of the solar wind with the ionosphere indicates that the noise results from locally generated plasma instabilities and not from any behavior of the lower atmosphere. Furthemore, analysis of the spatial distribution of the noise shows that it is not clustered over highland topography, but rather occurs at random throughout the latitude and longitude regions sampled by the orbiter during the first 5 years of operation, from 1978 to 1984. Thus the electric field observations do not identify lightning and do not provide a basis for inferring the presence of currently active volcanic output. In the absence of known evidence to the contrary, it appears that Venus is no longer active.

Taylor, Harry A., Jr.↗