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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements

Abstract Because of the coarse grid size of Earth system models (ESMs), representing warm-rain processes in ESMs is a challenging task involving multiple sources of uncertainty. Previous studies evaluated warm-rain parameterizations mainly according to their performance in emulating collision–coalescence rates for local droplet populations over a short period of a few seconds. The representativeness of these local process rates comes into question when applied in ESMs for grid sizes on the order of 100 km and time steps on the order of 20–30 min. We evaluate several widely used warm-rain parameterizations in ESM application scenarios. In the comparison of local and instantaneous autoconversion rates, the two parameterization schemes based on numerical fitting to stochastic collection equation (SCE) results perform best. However, because of Jessen’s inequality, their performance deteriorates when grid-mean, instead of locally resolved, cloud properties are used in their simulations. In contrast, the effect of Jessen’s inequality partly cancels the overestimation problem of two semianalytical schemes, leading to an improvement in the ESM-like comparison. In the assessment of uncertainty due to the large time step of ESMs, it is found that the rainwater tendency simulated by the SCE is roughly linear for time steps smaller than 10 min, but the nonlinearity effect becomes significant for larger time steps, leading to errors up to a factor of 4 for a time step of 20 min. After considering all uncertainties, the grid-mean and time-averaged rainwater tendency based on the parameterization schemes is mostly within a factor of 4 of the local benchmark results simulated by SCE.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A meshless stochastic method for Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations

A plethora of biological, physical, and chemical phenomena involve transport of charged particles (ions). Its continuum-scale description relies on the Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) system, which encapsulates the conservation of mass and charge. The numerical solution of these coupled partial differential equations is challenging and suffers from both the curse of dimensionality and difficulty in efficiently parallelizing. We present a novel particle-based framework to solve the full PNP system by simulating a drift–diffusion process with time- and space-varying drift. We leverage Green’s functions, kernel-independent fast multipole methods, and kernel density estimation to solve the PNP system in a meshless manner, capable of handling discontinuous initial states. The method is embarrassingly parallel, and the computational cost scales linearly with the number of particles and dimension. We use a series of numerical experiments to demonstrate both the method’s convergence with respect to the number of particles and computational cost vis-à-vis a traditional partial differential equation solver.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous Measurements of Noncommuting Observables: Positive Transformations and Instrumental Lie Groups

We formulate a general program for describing and analyzing continuous, differential weak, simultaneous measurements of noncommuting observables, which focuses on describing the measuring instrument autonomously, without states. The Kraus operators of such measuring processes are time-ordered products of fundamental differential positive transformations, which generate nonunitary transformation groups that we call instrumental Lie groups. The temporal evolution of the instrument is equivalent to the diffusion of a Kraus-operator distribution function, defined relative to the invariant measure of the instrumental Lie group. This diffusion can be analyzed using Wiener path integration, stochastic differential equations, or a Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation. This way of considering instrument evolution we call the Instrument Manifold Program. We relate the Instrument Manifold Program to state-based stochastic master equations. We then explain how the Instrument Manifold Program can be used to describe instrument evolution in terms of a universal cover that we call the universal instrumental Lie group, which is independent not just of states, but also of Hilbert space. The universal instrument is generically infinite dimensional, in which case the instrument’s evolution is chaotic. Special simultaneous measurements have a finite-dimensional universal instrument, in which case the instrument is considered principal, and it can be analyzed within the differential geometry of the universal instrumental Lie group. Principal instruments belong at the foundation of quantum mechanics. We consider the three most fundamental examples: measurement of a single observable, position and momentum, and the three components of angular momentum. As these measurements are performed continuously, they converge to strong simultaneous measurements. For a single observable, this results in the standard decay of coherence between inequivalent irreducible representations. For the latter two cases, it leads to a collapse within each irreducible representation onto the classical or spherical phase space, with the phase space located at the boundary of these instrumental Lie groups.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Coherence to Function: Exploring the Connection in Chemical Systems

The role of quantum mechanical coherences or coherent superposition states in excited state processes has received considerable attention in the last two decades largely due to advancements in ultrafast laser spectroscopy. These coherence effects hold promise for enhancing the efficiency and robustness of functionally relevant processes, even when confronted with energy disorder and environmental fluctuations. Understanding coherence deeply drives us to unravel mechanisms and dynamics controlled by order and synchronization at a quantum mechanical level, envisioning optical control of coherence to enhance functions or create new ones in molecular and material systems. In this frontier, the interplay between electronic and vibrational dynamics, specifically the influence of vibrations in directing electronic dynamics, has emerged as the leading principle. Here, two energetically disparate quantum degrees of freedom work in-sync to dictate the trajectory of an excited state reaction. Moreover, with the vibrational degree being directly related to the structural composition of molecular or material systems, new molecular designs could be inspired by tailoring certain structural elements. In the realm of chemical kinetics, our understanding of the dynamics of chemical transformations is underpinned by fundamental theories, such as transition state theory, activated rate theory, and Marcus theory. These theories elucidate reaction rates by considering the energy barriers that must be overcome for reactants to transform into products. Those barriers are surmounted by the stochastic nature of energy gap fluctuations within reacting systems, emphasizing that the reaction coordinate, the pathway from reactants to products, is not rigidly defined by a specific vibrational motion but encompasses a diverse array of molecular motions. While less is known about the involvement of specific intramolecular vibrational modes, their significance in certain cases cannot be overlooked. In this Account, we summarize key experimental findings that offer deeper insights into the complex electronic–vibrational trajectories encompassing excited states afforded from state-of-the-art ultrafast laser spectroscopy in three exemplary processes: photoinduced electron transfer, singlet–triplet intersystem crossing, and intramolecular vibrational energy flow in molecular systems. We delve into the rapid decoherence, or loss of phase and amplitude correlations, of vibrational coherences along promoter vibrations during subpicosecond intersystem crossing dynamics in a series of binuclear platinum complexes. This rapid decoherence illustrates the vibration-driven reactive pathways from the Franck–Condon state to the curve crossing region. We also explore the generation of new vibrational coherences induced by impulsive reaction dynamics rather than by the laser pulse in these systems, which sheds light on specific energy dissipation pathways and thereby on the progression of the reaction trajectory in the vicinity of the curve crossing on the product side. Another property of vibrational coherences, amplitude, reveals how energy can flow from one vibration to another in the electronic excited state of a terpyridine–molybdenum complex hosting a nonreactive dinitrogen substrate. In conclusion, a slight change in vibrational energy triggers a quasi-resonant interaction, leading to constructive wavepacket interference and ultimately intramolecular vibrational redistribution from a Franck–Condon active terpyridine vibration to a dinitrogen stretching vibration, energizing the dinitrogen bond.

Electrical energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring single-cell biosynthetic noise and dynamics for enhanced betaxanthin production in Escherichia coli

Cell-to-cell variability often limits the efficiency of microbial bioproduction, yet how individual cells fluctuate over time and how these fluctuations shape population-level output remain unclear. To address this issue, we tracked a heterologous betaxanthin pathway in Escherichia coli using microfluidics-assisted time-lapse microscopy, allowing simultaneous measurement of fluctuations in betaxanthin, its biosynthetic enzyme DOD and growth across generations. Here we show that over 50% of high betaxanthin producers become medium or low producers after two divisions. Betaxanthin variation primarily originates from DOD noise, with a smaller contribution from growth rate fluctuations. We further develop a stochastic model to explore various control circuits and find that pathway enzyme or metabolite-based growth selection strategies are most effective in enhancing production. We experimentally validate the model by coupling enzyme expression to nutrient availability, which enriches high producers and boosts titer by 4.4-fold. Our results highlight key sources of metabolic heterogeneity and provide a framework for designing robust microbial processes.

Bacterial systems biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data From: Simulating bioclogging effects on dynamic riverbed permeability and infiltration, Water Resources Research

We collected a time series of Russian River infiltration rates to parameterize stochastic model development of infiltration conditions as a function of bioclogging. The time series of infiltration were collected from the Russian River Riverbank Filtration site located in Sonoma County California. Infiltration datasets are shown in units of m/day and were obtained using a seepage meter in 2012. To address the combined effects of bioclogging and disconnection on infiltration, we developed numerical representations of bioclogging processes based on these datasets using a within a one-dimensional, variably saturated flow model representing losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. All models and bioclogging formulations were used to create synthetic test cases for bioclogging.This research was supported by the Jane Lewis Fellowship from the University of California, Berkeley, the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), the Roy G. Post Foundation Scholarship, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Graduate Student Research (SCGSR) Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under award DE-AC02-05CH11231, and the UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidation of Local Ordering and Atomic-Scale Structure in Polymer-Derived SiOC

Silicon oxycarbide (SiOC) is a versatile ceramic material with tunable microstructure and compositions that can be modulated through precursor chemistry and processing conditions. Though there are several noteworthy uses of SiOC across a range of application spaces, the difficulties in elucidating the short- to medium-range order within these materials have limited the maturation of strategies to precisely control SiC x O 4–x compositions for user-tailored applications. In this contribution, we implement a range of synchrotron scattering and spectroscopy methods coupled with stochastic modeling techniques to elucidate changes in local chemistry and structure associated with the pyrolysis of a commercially available SiOC polymer precursor. Stochastic modeling approaches provide valuable insights into decoupling local Si–O and Si–C environments while confirming predominate heterogeneous phases in materials. Using pyrolysis temperatures between 250 to 800 °C results in a heterogeneous material predominately composed of SiOC and amorphous SiO 2 domains. At 1100 °C, redistribution of Si–C pairs in the SiOC network and Si–O from the SiO 2 domains create a more ordered SiOC phase with local cubic SiC-like ordering. In addition, residual carbon leads to a detectable carbon phases at 1100 °C that persist at higher temperatures. These efforts address the difficulties of obtaining atomic-scale insights into the local structure and nanoscale heterogeneities in SiOC, providing pathways toward establishing structure–property relationships for future materials development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

EdgeAI: Machine learning via direct attached accelerator for streaming data processing at high shot rate x-ray free-electron lasers

We present a case for low batch-size inference with the potential for adaptive training of a lean encoder model. We do so in the context of a paradigmatic example of machine learning as applied in data acquisition at high data velocity scientific user facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source-II x-ray Free-Electron Laser. We discuss how a low-latency inference model operating at the data acquisition edge can capitalize on the naturally stochastic nature of such sources. We simulate the method of attosecond angular streaking to produce representative results whereby simulated input data reproduce high-resolution ground truth probability distributions. By minimizing the mean-squared error between the decoded output of the latent representation and the ground truth distributions, we ensure that the encoding layers and resulting latent representation maintains full fidelity for any downstream task, be it classification or regression. We present throughput results for data-parallel inference of various batch sizes, some with throughput exceeding 100 k images per second. We also show in situ training below 10 s per epoch for the full encoder–decoder model as would be relevant for streaming and adaptive real-time data production at our nation’s scientific light sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ice-nucleating agents in sea spray aerosol identified and quantified with a holistic multimodal freezing model

Sea spray aerosol (SSA) is a widely recognized important source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the atmosphere. However, composition-specific identification, nucleation processes, and ice nucleation rates of SSA-INPs have not been well constrained. Microspectroscopic characterization of ambient and laboratory-generated SSA confirms that water-borne exudates from planktonic microorganisms composed of a mixture of proteinaceous and polysaccharidic compounds act as ice-nucleating agents (INAs). These data and data from previously published mesocosm and wave channel studies are subsequently used to further develop the stochastic freezing model (SFM) producing ice nucleation rate coefficients for SSA-INPs. The SFM simultaneously predicts immersion freezing and deposition and homogeneous ice nucleation by SSA particles under tropospheric conditions. Predicted INP concentrations agree with ambient and laboratory measurements. In addition, this holistic freezing model is independent of the source and exact composition of the SSA particles, making it well suited for implementation in cloud and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elastic Stochastic Full Waveform Inversion (eSFWI)

This collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Chevron USA Inc., acting through its Chevron Technical Center division, aimed at developing next-generation computational methods for the Elastic Stochastic Full Waveform Inversion (eSFWI). Seismic imaging is heavily used in the oil and gas industry for identifying and operating subsurface reservoirs. Improved seismic imaging methods can improve productivity, lower costs, and improve operational and environmental safety. This CRADA demonstrated that new high-performance computing (HPC) architectures being rolled out over the next five years can enable unprecedented seismic imaging resolution when using eSFWI techniques to process active seismic data. An open-source computational mini-application was developed, capable of demonstrating near-peak performance for eSFWI algorithms on CPU and GPU enabled HPC platforms. Performance was demonstrated on LLNL HPC systems such as Lassen, as well as on Chevron systems. This project benefited Chevron USA Inc. by demonstrating the potential computational efficiency of their full waveform inversion capabilities used to characterize oil/gas reservoirs, which in turn benefits the public through potential increases in capabilities to perform analysis of leasing sites.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discrete Fracture Network Modeling to Estimate Upscaled Parameters for the Topopah Spring, Lava Flow, and Tiva Canyon Aquifers at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

This report describes the results of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) simulations for the Topopah Spring Aquifer (TSA), Lava Flow Aquifer, and Tiva Canyon Aquifer (TCA), at Pahute Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), formerly the Nevada Test Site. The research focuses on calculating upscaled groundwater flow and contaminant transport parameters using DFNs generated according to fracture characteristics observed in the TSA, LFA and TCA at Pahute Mesa. The highly fractured and heterogeneous nature of these aquifers makes them candidates for stochastic DFN modeling of radionuclide transport on a small scale with subsequent upscaling. One hundred independent DFN realizations are generated for each aquifer, and the upscaled parameters for continuum simulations of subsurface flow and transport in fractured media at Pahute Mesa are calculated. Our goal is to implement a modeling approach that can translate parameters to larger-scale models that account for local-scale flow and transport processes, such as channelization of flow and transport along a few well connected, large fractures. Additionally, to simulate advective and advective-diffusive transport through the fracture networks, the Time Domain Random Walk (TDRW) approach is applied to account for matrix diffusion into a finite half-space. Moreover, a novel approach to calculate dynamic (active) fracture surface area to reflect flow channeling is implemented. This work will improve the representation of radionuclide transport processes in largescale, regulatory-focused models by providing estimates of hard-to-measure flow and contaminant transport parameters at large scales. In this report, we (1) show recent results of flow and transport simulations on multiple DFN realizations of the TSA, LFA, TCA; (2) discuss the resulting distributions of estimated upscaled parameters; (3) describe the estimation of upscaled parameters for an equivalent parallel-plate continuum model and (4) present a comparison between simulated transport from the equivalent continuum model and an actual DFN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗