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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

Advanced packaging technologies are currently being designed and developed by the power electronics industry however, the maximum operating temperature is still limited to 175 degrees Celsius for the silicon carbide devices. Bonded materials such as sintered copper and polymeric materials are potential candidates for high temperature operation, but it is critical to characterize and evaluate its reliability under harsh operating conditions. In this project, we discuss the results of the accelerated experiments conducted on sintered copper and polymeric materials. Additionally, a novel framework to develop the lifetime prediction model of bonded interfaces through employing statistical and machine learning models are described. In this task, scanning acoustic microscope images of bonded interfaces obtained under thermal cycling experiments are used as the data.

ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised and Interpretable Anomaly Detection Using Network Transformers

Machine learning and deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed as a tool to identify anomalies in computer network communications. However, due the obfuscated nature of off-the-shelf machine learning models, their output often does not provide enough information to isolate the source of the anomaly to take corrective measures. In this article, we introduce the network transformer (NeT), a DNN model for anomaly detection that incorporates the graph structure of the communication network in order to improve interpretability. Further, the presented approach has the following advantages: first, enhanced interpretability by incorporating the graph structure of computer networks; second, provides a hierarchical set of features that enables analysis at different levels of granularity; second, self-supervised training that does not require labeled data. The NeT model was evaluated on a set of anomalous scenarios executed in a real industrial control system. The presented approach successfully identified the anomalies, the devices affected, and the specific connections causing the anomalies, providing a data-driven hierarchical approach to analyze the behavior of a cyber network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Synthesis and Inverse Design of Electrochromic Polymers with High Efficiency and Accuracy

Here, the design and synthesis of functional polymers, aimed at targeted properties through specific structures, have long been challenged by their complex and often nonlinear structure–property relationships. Key processes, including knowledge accumulation for predictive design and experimental refinement and validation, are traditionally labor-insensitive and time-consuming, making it difficult to balance accuracy and efficiency. Here, we introduce an accelerated, autonomous system for the on-demand synthesis of electronic polymers that achieves the desired electrochromic functionality with high accuracy and efficiency. Our approach leverages large language model-assisted data mining, a physics-informed copolymer machine learning model, and an AI-driven autonomous robotic workflow in the Polybot lab. Within 72 h, Polybot autonomously synthesized electrochromic polymers (ECPs) with targeted, previously-unreported color values, including green polymers with specific absorption profiles, precisely fine-tuning copolymer structures with a 5% step size in comonomer composition within a three-monomer system. A publicly accessible ECP informatics database has also been created to foster knowledge exchange.

AI-driven Robotic Lab↗
DOE OSTI2022

Graph-based featurization methods for classifying small molecule compounds

For over a decade, drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has posed significant drawbacks in the synthesis and development of drugs and remains a consequential concern. With finite success within the existing preclinical models, DILI is one of the main causes of drug withdrawal or termination from the market. Particularly, this withdrawal occurs during the late stages of drug development (Kullak-Ublick, 2017). Since DILI is difficult to diagnose and treat, it has become an obstacle in the drug production market that in turn affects clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, and consumers. We propose a method for learning features of DILI-positive drugs based on the graphical relationships and patterns they possess within a network of biological databases. We also train various statistical and machine learning models on these learned features in order to classify the drugs as DILI-positive or negative. Our methods include Random Forest, Neural networks, and logistic regression classification. We utilize labeled DILI-positive and DILI-negative datasets, which were developed by the FDA and the National center for toxicological research, as well as additional literature datasets (Thakkar, 2020) in order to validate our results and assess our featurization and model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Better understanding and prediction of antiviral peptides through primary and secondary structure feature importance

The emergence of viral epidemics throughout the world is of concern due to the scarcity of available effective antiviral therapeutics. The discovery of new antiviral therapies is imperative to address this challenge, and antiviral peptides (AVPs) represent a valuable resource for the development of novel therapies to combat viral infection. We present a new machine learning model to distinguish AVPs from non-AVPs using the most informative features derived from the physicochemical and structural properties of their amino acid sequences. To focus on those features that are most likely to contribute to antiviral performance, we filter potential features based on their importance for classification. These feature selection analyses suggest that secondary structure is the most important peptide sequence feature for predicting AVPs. Our Feature-Informed Reduced Machine Learning for Antiviral Peptide Prediction (FIRM-AVP) approach achieves a higher accuracy than either the model with all features or current state-of-the-art single classifiers. Understanding the features that are associated with AVP activity is a core need to identify and design new AVPs in novel systems. The FIRM-AVP code and standalone software package are available at https://github.com/pmartR/FIRM-AVP with an accompanying web application at https://msc-viz.emsl.pnnl.gov/AVPR.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kohn–Sham accuracy from orbital-free density functional theory via Δ-machine learning

Here, we present a Δ-machine learning model for obtaining Kohn–Sham accuracy from orbital-free density functional theory (DFT) calculations. In particular, we employ a machine-learned force field (MLFF) scheme based on the kernel method to capture the difference between Kohn–Sham and orbital-free DFT energies/forces. We implement this model in the context of on-the-fly molecular dynamics simulations and study its accuracy, performance, and sensitivity to parameters for representative systems. We find that the formalism not only improves the accuracy of Thomas–Fermi–von Weizsäcker orbital-free energies and forces by more than two orders of magnitude but is also more accurate than MLFFs based solely on Kohn–Sham DFT while being more efficient and less sensitive to model parameters. We apply the framework to study the structure of molten Al 0.88 Si 0.12 , the results suggesting no aggregation of Si atoms, in agreement with a previous Kohn–Sham study performed at an order of magnitude smaller length and time scales.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transient Optimization of the Cryogenic Moderator System Controller at the Spallation Neutron Source for Improved Performance

The high-energy neutron beam generated at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is moderated to use cold (slow) neutrons for scientific discoveries. The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) removes heat from the neutron beam using cryogenic hydrogen (H 2 ) moderators connected via heat exchangers to a helium (He) refrigeration loop that dissipates heat using a compressor-brake system. However, the CMS is affected by sporadic losses in beam power, referred to as "beam trips," as these events generate significant disturbances in cooling requirements. To accommodate the heat load transients during beam trips, the CMS uses a decentralized control strategy consisting of four flow valves and one electric heater adjusted by independent proportional-integral (PI) controllers. During the CMS’s initial commissioning, the PI gains were calibrated based only on tracking performance, overlooking their effectiveness in disturbance rejection. A data-driven, control-oriented closed-loop model was developed to recalibrate the PI gains and minimize the transient disturbances caused by beam trips. The model consists of three main components: (1) a physics-based model of the He refrigeration loop, (2) a machine-learning model of the cryogenic H 2 cooling trains, and (3) the control logic used for feedback set-point tracking. Experimental results showed that the recalibrated gains obtained in this study improved the CMS’s transient response during beam trips.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2021

OptML

OptML is an open-source Python package that provides modeling and solution capabilities for optimization problems with embedded machine learning models. OptML is a collaborative open-source project that includes advanced algorithms from the academic community for efficient solution of these problems. Sandia contributions to this package include the development of interfaces between these algorithms and Pyomo. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-10861 O

Jalving, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyperparameter Studies for Vision Transformers Trained on High-Fidelity Simulations

This library is a collection of python modules that define, train, and analyze vision-transformer (ViT) machine learning models. The code implements, with mild modifications, ViT models that have been made publicly available through publication and GitHub code. The training data for these models is hydrodynamic simulation output in the form of numpy arrays. This library contains code to train these ViT models on the hydrodynamic simulation output with a variety of hyperparameters, and to compare the results of such models. Furthermore, the library contains definitions of simple convolutional neural network (CNN) machine learning architectures which can be trained on the same hydrodynamic simulation output. These are included as a reference point to compare the ViT models to. Additionally, the library includes trained ViT and CNN models and example input data for demonstration purposes. The code is based on the PyTorch python library.

Callis, Skylar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transformer quantum state: A multipurpose model for quantum many-body problems

Here, inspired by the advancements in large language models based on transformers, we introduce the transformer quantum state (TQS): a versatile machine learning model for quantum many-body problems. In sharp contrast to Hamiltonian/task specific models, TQS can generate the entire phase diagram, predict field strengths with experimental measurements, and transfer such a knowledge to new systems it has never been trained on before, all within a single model. With specific tasks, fine-tuning the TQS produces accurate results with small computational cost. Versatile by design, TQS can be easily adapted to new tasks, thereby pointing towards a general-purpose model for various challenging quantum problems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets: Preprint

Increasing levels of renewable generation motivate a growing interest in data-driven approaches for AC optimal power flow (AC OPF) to manage uncertainty. However, a lack of disciplined dataset creation and benchmarking prohibits useful comparison between approaches in the literature. To instigate confidence, models must be able to reliably predict solutions across a wide range of operating conditions. This paper develops the OPF-Learn package for Julia and Python which uses a computationally efficient approach to create representative datasets that span a wide spectrum of the AC OPF feasible region. Load profiles are uniformly sampled from a convex set that contains the AC OPF feasible set. For each infeasible point found, the convex set is reduced using infeasibility certificates, found by utilizing properties of a relaxed formulation. The framework is shown to generate datasets which are more representative of the entire feasible space versus traditional techniques seen in the literature, improving machine learning model performance.

dataset↗