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Bayesian inference of multi-messenger astrophysical data: Joint and coherent inference of gravitational waves and kilonovae

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers can provide information on the neutron star’s equation of state (EOS) above the nuclear saturation density by directly constraining the mass-radius diagram. We present a Bayesian framework for joint and coherent analyses of multi-messenger binary neutron star signals. As a first application, we analyze the gravitational-wave GW170817 and the kilonova (kN) AT2017gfo data. These results are then combined with the most recent X-ray pulsar analyses of PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620 to obtain new EOS constraints.We extend the bajes infrastructure with a joint likelihood for multiple datasets, support for various semi-analytical kN models, and numerical-relativity (NR)-informed relations for the mass ejecta, as well as a technique to include and marginalize over modeling uncertainties. The analysis of GW170817 used the TEOBResumS effective-one-body waveform template to model the gravitational-wave signal. The analysis of AT2017gfo used a baseline multicomponent spherically symmetric model for the kN light curves. Various constraints on the mass-radius diagram and neutron star properties were then obtained by resampling over a set of ten million parameterized EOSs, which was built under minimal assumptions (general relativity and causality).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of Comptonization region over the ambiance of accretion disc in active galactic nucleus

ABSTRACT Understanding the radiative and physical structures of inner region of a few 100 pc of active galactic nucleus (AGNs) is important to constrain the causes of their activities. Although the X-ray emission from the Comptonization region/corona and the accretion disc regulates the broad-line emission regions and torus structures, the exact mutual dependency is not understood well. We performed correlation studies for X-ray, mid-infrared, and different components of Balmer emission lines for the selected sample of AGNs. Almost 10 different parameters and their interdependencies were explored in order to understand the underlying astrophysics. We found that the X-ray luminosity has a linear dependency on the various components of broad Balmer emission lines (e.g. L$_{\text{2-10 keV}}\, \propto$ L$^{0.78}_{\text{H}\beta ^{\text{B}}}$) and found a strong dependency on the optical continuum luminosity (L$_{\text{2-10 keV}}\, \propto$ L$^{0.86}_{5100\, \mathring{\rm A}}$). For a selected sample, we also observed a linear dependency between X-ray and mid-infrared luminosity (L$_{\text{2-10 keV}}\, \propto$ L$^{0.74}_{6\, \mu \text{m}}$). A break point was observed in our correlation studies for X-ray power-law index, Γ, and mass of black hole at ∼ log (M/M⊙) = 8.95. Similarly, the relations between Γ and full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of H α and H β broad components show breaks at FWHMH α = 7642 ± 657 km s−1 and FWHMH β = 7336 ± 650 km s−1. However, more data are required to confine the breaks locations exactly. We noted that Γ and Eddington ratios are negatively correlated to Balmer decrements in our selected sample. We analysed and discussed about the implications of new findings in terms of interaction AGN structures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First direct measurement of 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni: A step towards constraining the Ni-Cu cycle in the cosmos

Reactions on proton-rich nuclides drive the nucleosynthesis in core collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and in x-ray bursts (XRBs). CCSNe eject the nucleosynthesis products to the interstellar medium and hence are a potential inventory of p nuclei, whereas in XRBs nucleosynthesis powers the light curves. In both astrophysical sites the Ni-Cu cycle, which features a competition between 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni and 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn, could potentially halt the production of heavier elements. Here, we report the first direct measurement of 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni using a reaccelerated 59Cu beam and a cryogenic solid hydrogen target. Furthermore, our results show that the reaction proceeds predominantly to the ground state of 56 Ni, and the experimental rate has been found to be lower than Hauser-Feshbach based statistical model predictions. New results hints that the νp process could operate at higher temperatures than previously inferred and therefore remains a viable site for synthesizing the heavier elements

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Positive Neutrino Masses with DESI DR2 via Matter Conversion to Dark Energy

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is a massively parallel spectroscopic survey on the Mayall telescope at Kitt Peak, which has released measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations determined from over 14 million extragalactic targets. We combine DESI Data Release 2 with CMB datasets to search for evidence of matter conversion to dark energy (DE), focusing on a scenario mediated by stellar collapse to cosmologically coupled black holes (CCBHs). In this physical model, which has the same number of free parameters as Λ⁢CDM, DE production is determined by the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD), allowing for distinct early- and late-time cosmologies. Using two SFRDs to bracket current observations, we find that the CCBH model: accurately recovers the cosmological expansion history, agrees with early-time baryon abundance measured by BBN, reduces tension with the local distance ladder, and relaxes constraints on the summed neutrino mass ∑𝑚 𝜈 . For these SFRDs, we find a peaked positive ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.149 eV (95% confidence) and ∑𝑚 𝜈 = 0.106$^{+0.050}_{−0.069}$ eV, respectively, in good agreement with lower limits from neutrino oscillation experiments. A peak in ∑𝑚 𝜈 > 0 results from late-time baryon consumption in the CCBH scenario and is expected to be a general feature of any model that converts sufficient matter to dark energy during and after reionization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Effective Resistivity in Relativistic Collisionless Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection can power spectacular high-energy astrophysical phenomena by producing nonthermal energy distributions in highly magnetized regions around compact objects. By means of two-dimensional fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, we investigate relativistic collisionless plasmoid-mediated reconnection in magnetically dominated pair plasmas with and without a guide field. In X-points, where diverging flows result in a nondiagonal thermal pressure tensor, a finite residence time for particles gives rise to a localized collisionless effective resistivity. Here, for the first time for relativistic reconnection in a fully developed plasmoid chain, we identify the mechanisms driving the nonideal electric field using a full Ohm law by means of a statistical analysis based on our PIC simulations. We show that the nonideal electric field is predominantly driven by gradients of nongyrotropic thermal pressures. We propose a kinetic physics motivated nonuniform effective resistivity model that is negligible on global scales and becomes significant only locally in X-points. It captures the properties of collisionless reconnection with the aim of mimicking its essentials in nonideal magnetohydrodynamic descriptions. This effective resistivity model provides a viable opportunity to design physically grounded global models for reconnection-powered high-energy emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A search for cosmogenic neutrinos with the ARIANNA test bed using 4.5 years of data

The primary mission of the ARIANNA ultra-high energy neutrino telescope is to uncover astrophysical sources of neutrinos with energies greater than 10 16 eV. A pilot array, consisting of seven ARIANNA stations located on the surface of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica, was commissioned in November 2014. We report on the search for astrophysical neutrinos using data collected between November 2014 and February 2019. A straight-forward template matching analysis yielded no neutrino candidates, with a signal efficiency of 79%. We find a 90% confidence upper limit on the diffuse neutrino flux of E 2 Φ=1.7× 10 -6 GeV cm -2 s -1 sr -1 for a decade wide logarithmic bin centered at a neutrino energy of 1018,eV, which is an order of magnitude improvement compared to the previous limit reported by the ARIANNA collaboration. The ARIANNA stations, including purpose built cosmic-ray stations at the Moore's Bay site and demonstrator stations at the South Pole, have operated reliably. Sustained operation at two distinct sites confirms that the flexible and adaptable architecture can be deployed in any deep ice, radio quiet environment. We show that the scientific capabilities, technical innovations, and logistical requirements of ARIANNA are sufficiently well understood to serve as the basis for large area radio-based neutrino telescope with a wide field-of-view.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-field Instruments

Abstract Kilonovae are ultraviolet, optical, and infrared transients powered by the radioactive decay of heavy elements following a neutron star merger. Joint observations of kilonovae and gravitational waves can offer key constraints on the source of Galactic r -process enrichment, among other astrophysical topics. However, robust constraints on heavy element production require rapid kilonova detection (within ∼1 day of merger) as well as multiwavelength observations across multiple epochs. In this study, we quantify the ability of 13 wide-field-of-view instruments to detect kilonovae, leveraging a large grid of over 900 radiative transfer simulations with 54 viewing angles per simulation. We consider both current and upcoming instruments, collectively spanning the full kilonova spectrum. The Roman Space Telescope has the highest redshift reach of any instrument in the study, observing kilonovae out to z ∼ 1 within the first day post-merger. We demonstrate that BlackGEM, DECam, GOTO, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s LSST, ULTRASAT, VISTA, and WINTER can observe some kilonovae out to z ∼ 0.1 (∼475 Mpc), while DDOTI, MeerLICHT, PRIME, Swift/UVOT, and ZTF are confined to more nearby observations. Furthermore, we provide a framework to infer kilonova ejecta properties following nondetections and explore variation in detectability with these ejecta parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bounds on Velocity-dependent Dark Matter–Proton Scattering from Milky Way Satellite Abundance

We use the latest measurements of the Milky Way satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1 to infer the most stringent astrophysical bound to date on velocity-dependent interactions between dark matter particles and protons. We model the momentum-transfer cross section as a power law of the relative particle velocity v with a free normalizing amplitude, σ MT = σ 0 v n , to broadly capture the interactions arising within the nonrelativistic effective theory of dark matter–proton scattering. The scattering leads to a momentum and heat transfer between the baryon and dark matter fluids in the early universe, ultimately erasing structure on small physical scales and reducing the abundance of low-mass halos that host dwarf galaxies today. From the consistency of observations with the cold collisionless dark matter paradigm, using a new method that relies on the most robust predictions of the linear perturbation theory, we infer an upper limit on σ0 of 1.4 × 10 -23 , 2.1 × 10 -19 , and 1.0 × 10 -12 cm 2 , for interaction models with n = 2, 4, and 6, respectively, for a dark matter particle mass of 10 MeV. These results improve observational limits on dark matter–proton scattering by orders of magnitude and thus provide an important guide for viable sub-GeV dark matter candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Madison plasma dynamo experiment: A facility for studying laboratory plasma astrophysics

The Madison plasma dynamo experiment (MPDX) is a novel, versatile, basic plasma research device designed to investigate flow driven magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and other high-β phenomena with astrophysically relevant parameters. A 3 m diameter vacuum vessel is lined with 36 rings of alternately oriented 4000 G samarium cobalt magnets, which create an axisymmetric multicusp that contains ∼14 m3of nearly magnetic field free plasma that is well confined and highly ionized (>50%). At present, 8 lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6) cathodes and 10 molybdenum anodes are inserted into the vessel and biased up to 500 V, drawing 40 A each cathode, ionizing a low pressure Ar or He fill gas and heating it. Up to 100 kW of electron cyclotron heating power is planned for additional electron heating. The LaB6cathodes are positioned in the magnetized edge to drive toroidal rotation through J × B torques that propagate into the unmagnetized core plasma. Dynamo studies on MPDX require a high magnetic Reynolds number Rm > 1000, and an adjustable fluid Reynolds number 10 1). Initial results from MPDX are presented along with a 0-dimensional power and particle balance model to predict the viscosity and resistivity to achieve dynamo action.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

What if GW190425 did not produce a black hole promptly?

ABSTRACT It is widely believed that the binary neutron star merger GW190425 produced a black hole promptly upon merger. Motivated by the potential association with the fast radio burst FRB 20190425A, which took place 2.5 h after the merger, we revisit the question of the outcome of GW190425 by means of numerical relativity simulations. We show that current laboratory and astrophysical constraints on the equation of state of dense matter do not rule out the formation of a long-lived remnant. However, the formation of a stable remnant would have produced a bright kilonova, in tension with upper limits by ZTF at the location and time of FRB 20190425A. Moreover, the ejecta would have been optically thick to radio emission for days to months, preventing a putative FRB from propagating out. The predicted dispersion measure is also several orders of magnitude larger than that observed for FRB 20190425A. Our results indicate that FRB 20190425A and GW190425 are not associated. However, we cannot completely rule out the formation of a long-lived remnant, due to the incomplete coverage of the relevant sky regions. More observations of GW190425-like events, including potential upper limit, have the potential to constrain nuclear physics. To this aim, it is important that follow-up observational campaigns of gravitational wave events are informed by the properties of the source, such as their chirp mass, and we urge the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration to promptly release them publicly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulated JWST Data Sets for Multispectral and Hyperspectral Image Fusion

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will provide multispectral and hyperspectral infrared images of a large number of astrophysical scenes. Multispectral images will have the highest angular resolution, while hyperspectral images (e.g., with integral field unit spectrometers) will provide the best spectral resolution. This paper aims at providing a comprehensive framework to generate an astrophysical scene and to simulate realistic hyperspectral and multispectral data acquired by two JWST instruments, namely, NIRCam Imager and NIRSpec IFU. We want to show that this simulation framework can be resorted to assess the benefits of fusing these images to recover an image of high spatial and spectral resolutions. To do so, we make a synthetic scene associated with a canonical infrared source, the Orion Bar. We develop forward models including corresponding noises for the two JWST instruments based on their physical features. JWST observations are then simulated by applying the forward models to the aforementioned synthetic scene. We test a dedicated fusion algorithm we developed on these simulated observations. We show that the fusion process reconstructs the high spatio-spectral resolution scene with a good accuracy on most areas, and we identify some limitations of the method to be tackled in future works. The synthetic scene and observations presented in the paper can be used, for instance, to evaluate instrument models, pipelines, or more sophisticated algorithms dedicated to JWST data analysis. Besides, fusion methods such as the one presented in this paper are shown to be promising tools to fully exploit the unprecedented capabilities of the JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of Energy Reduction of Inertial Alfvén Waves Propagating through Parallel Gradients in the Alfvén Speed

We have studied the propagation of inertial Alfvén waves through parallel gradients in the Alfvén speed using the Large Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles. The reflection and transmission of Alfvén waves through inhomogeneities in the background plasma are important for understanding wave propagation, turbulence, and heating in space, laboratory, and astrophysical plasmas. Here we present inertial Alfvén waves under conditions relevant to solar flares and the solar corona. We find that the transmission of the inertial Alfvén waves is reduced as the sharpness of the gradient is increased. Any reflected waves were below the detection limit of our experiment, and reflection cannot account for all of the energy not transmitted through the gradient. Our findings indicate that, for both kinetic and inertial Alfvén waves, the controlling parameter for the transmission of the waves through an Alfvén speed gradient is the ratio of the Alfvén wavelength along the gradient divided by the scale length of the gradient. Furthermore, our results suggest that an as-yet-unidentified damping process occurs in the gradient.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Warped and Hooked: Mapping the Magellanic Clouds in Three Dimensions Using Red Clump Stars

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) are the Milky Way’s nearest interacting galaxy pair, offering a unique laboratory for studying tidal effects on galactic disks. Despite extensive survey efforts, the 3D geometry of the Magellanic Clouds, particularly the putative warp of the LMC, remains poorly constrained due to incompleteness in their crowded centers and the low stellar density of their peripheries, which demand wide-field coverage. Using red clump (RC) stars as standard candles, corrected for age- and metallicity-dependent population effects with empirically calibrated color–magnitude relations and spatially resolved star formation histories, we construct the most detailed distance map of the Magellanic system to date. Based on ∼2.3 million RC stars from Gaia Data Release 3 combined with modern reddening maps, we measure median heliocentric distances of 50.62 ± 2.32 kpc for the LMC (to ∼23°) and 60.75 ± 2.85 kpc for the SMC (to ∼12°). The maps reveal substructures including the LMC Northern Arm, southern hooks, the Magellanic Bridge, and SMC peripheral overdensities, with refreshed distance estimates. Fitting the LMC disk within 7° yields a global inclination of $i=25\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }32\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }10$ and a line-of-nodes position angle of $\theta = 142\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }34\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }21$. Most strikingly, we find the LMC periphery is warped azimuthally into a U-shaped structure reaching a vertical amplitude of ∼7 kpc at a radius of ∼15 kpc. In future work, we will perform detailed comparisons with live N-body simulations to assess possible formation scenarios for the LMC warp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards modelling AR Sco: generalized particle dynamics and strong radiation-reaction regimes

Numerical simulations of relativistic plasmas have become more feasible, popular, and crucial for various astrophysical sources with the availability of computational resources. The necessity for high-accuracy particle dynamics is especially highlighted in pulsar modelling due to the extreme associated electromagnetic fields and particle Lorentz factors. Including the radiation-reaction force in the particle dynamics adds even more complexity to the problem, but is crucial for such extreme astrophysical sources. We have also realized the need for such modelling concerning magnetic mirroring and particle injection models proposed for AR Sco, the first white dwarf pulsar. This paper demonstrates the benefits of using higher-order explicit numerical integrators with adaptive time-step methods to solve the full particle dynamics with radiation-reaction forces included. We show that for standard test scenarios, namely various combinations of uniform E- and B-fields and a static dipole B-field, the schemes we use are equivalent to and in extreme field cases outperform standard symplectic integrators in accuracy. We show that the higher-order schemes have massive computational time improvements due to the adaptive time-steps we implement, especially in non-uniform field scenarios and included radiation reaction where the particle gyro-radius rapidly changes. When balancing accuracy and computational time, we identified the adaptive Dormand–Prince eighth-order scheme to be ideal for our use cases. The schemes we use maintain accuracy and stability in describing the particle dynamics and we indicate how a charged particle enters radiation-reaction equilibrium and conforms to the analytical Aristotelian Electrodynamics expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Discovering $\mu$Hz gravitational waves and ultra-light dark matter with binary resonances

In the presence of a weak gravitational wave (GW) background, astrophysical binary systems act as high-quality resonators, with efficient transfer of energy and momentum between the orbit and a harmonic GW leading to potentially detectable orbital perturbations. In this work, we develop and apply a novel modeling and analysis framework that describes the imprints of GWs on binary systems in a fully time-resolved manner to study the sensitivity of lunar laser ranging, satellite laser ranging, and pulsar timing to both resonant and nonresonant GW backgrounds. We demonstrate that optimal data collection, modeling, and analysis lead to projected sensitivities which are orders of magnitude better than previously appreciated possible, opening up a new possibility for probing the physics-rich but notoriously challenging to access $\mu\mathrm{Hz}$ frequency GWs. We also discuss improved prospects for the detection of the stochastic fluctuations of ultra-light dark matter, which may analogously perturb the binary orbits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Collisionless conduction in a high-beta plasma: a collision operator for whistler turbulence

The regulation of electron heat transport in high-β, weakly collisional, magnetized plasma is investigated. A temperature gradient oriented along a mean magnetic field can induce a kinetic heat-flux-driven whistler instability (HWI), which back-reacts on the transport by scattering electrons and impeding their flow. Previous analytical and numerical studies have shown that the heat flux for the saturated HWI scales as β$^{-1}_{e}$. These numerical studies, however, had limited scale separation and consequently large fluctuation amplitudes, which calls into question their relevance at astrophysical scales. To this end, we perform a series of particle-in-cell simulations of the HWI across a range of β$_e$ and temperature-gradient length scales under two different physical set-ups. The saturated heat flux in all of our simulations follows the expected β$^{-1}_{e}$ scaling, supporting the robustness of the result. We also use our simulation results to develop and implement several methods to construct an effective collision operator for whistler turbulence. The results point to an issue with the standard quasi-linear explanation of HWI saturation, which is analogous to the well-known 90° scattering problem in the cosmic-ray community. Despite this limitation, the methods developed here can serve as a blueprint for future work seeking to characterize the effective collisionality caused by kinetic instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Full forward model of galaxy clustering statistics with AbacusSummit light cones

ABSTRACT Novel summary statistics beyond the standard 2-point correlation function (2PCF) are necessary to capture the full astrophysical and cosmological information from the small-scale (r < 30h−1Mpc) galaxy clustering. However, the analysis of beyond-2PCF statistics on small scales is challenging because we lack the appropriate treatment of observational systematics for arbitrary summary statistics of the galaxy field. In this paper, we develop a full forward modelling pipeline for a wide range of summary statistics using the large high-fidelity AbacusSummit light cones that account for many systematic effects as well as remain flexible and computationally efficient to enable posterior sampling. We apply our forward model approach to a fully realistic mock galaxy catalog and demonstrate that we can recover unbiased constraints on the underlying galaxy–halo connection model using two separate summary statistics: the standard 2PCF and the novel k-th nearest neighbour (kNN) statistics, which are sensitive to correlation functions of all orders. We will demonstrate its strong constraining power on extended galaxy–halo connection models and cosmology in follow up papers. We expect this to become a powerful approach when applying to upcoming surveys such as DESI where we can leverage a multitude of summary statistics across a wide redshift range to maximally extract information from the non-linear scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗