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At least 631 records · Page 35

Propulsion system studies for an advanced high subsonic, long range jet commercial transport aircraft

Propulsion system characteristics for a long range, high subsonic (Mach 0.90 - 0.98), jet commercial transport aircraft are studied to identify the most desirable cycle and engine configuration and to assess the payoff of advanced engine technologies applicable to the time frame of the late 1970s to the mid 1980s. An engine parametric study phase examines major cycle trends on the basis of aircraft economics. This is followed by the preliminary design of two advanced mixed exhaust turbofan engines pointed at two different technology levels (1970 and 1985 commercial certification for engines No. 1 and No. 2, respectively). The economic penalties of environmental constraints - noise and exhaust emissions - are assessed. The highest specific thrust engine (lowest bypass ratio for a given core technology) achievable with a single-stage fan yields the best economics for a Mach 0.95 - 0.98 aircraft and can meet the noise objectives specified, but with significant economic penalties. Advanced technologies which would allow high temperature and cycle pressure ratios to be used effectively are shown to provide significant improvement in mission performance which can partially offset the economic penalties incurred to meet lower noise goals. Advanced technology needs are identified; and, in particular, the initiation of an integrated fan and inlet aero/acoustic program is recommended.

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TERSSE. Definition of the total earth resources system for the shuttle era. Volume 10: (TOSS) TERSSE operational system study

Economic benefits studies regarding the application of remote sensing to resource management and the Total Earth Resources for the Shuttle Era (TERSSE) study to outline the structure and development of future systems are used, along with experience from LANDSAT and LACIE, to define the system performance and economics of an operational Earth Resources system. The system is to be based on current (LANDSAT follow-on) technology and its application to high priority resource management missions, such as global crop inventory. The TERSSE Operational System Study (TOSS) investigated system-level design alternatives using economic performance as the evaluation criterion. As such, the TOSS effort represented a significant step forward in the systems engineering and economic analysis of Earth Resources programs. By parametrically relating engineering design parameters, such as sensor performance details, to the economic benefit mechanisms a new level of confidence in the conclusions concerning the implementation of such systems can be reached.

Stow, W. K.↗

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 1: Executive summary

The technical and economic aspects of satellite solar power systems are presented with a focus on the current configuration 5000 MW system. The technical studies include analyses of the orbital system structures, control and stationkeeping, and the formulation of program plans and costs for input to the economic analyses. The economic analyses centered about the development and use of a risk analysis model for a system cost assessment, identification of critical issues and technologies, and to provide information for programmatic decision making. A preliminary economic examination of some utility interface issues is included. Under the present state-of-knowledge, it is possible to formulate a program plan for the development of a satellite solar power system that can be economically justified. The key area of technological uncertainty is man's ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Multirole cargo aircraft options and configurations

A future requirements and advanced market evaluation study indicates derivatives of current wide-body aircraft, using 1980 advanced technology, would be economically attractive through 2008, but new dedicated airfreighters incorporating 1990 technology, would offer little or no economic incentive. They would be economically attractive for all payload sizes, however, if RD and T costs could be shared in a joint civil/military arrangement. For the 1994-2008 cargo market, option studies indicate Mach 0.7 propfans would be economically attractive in trip cost, aircraft price and airline ROI. Spanloaders would have an even lower price and higher ROI but would have a relatively high trip cost because of aerodynamic inefficiencies. Dedicated airfreighters using propfans at Mach 0.8 cruise, laminar flow control, or cryofuels, would not provide any great economic benefits. Air cushion landing gear configurations are identified as an option for avoiding runway constraints on airport requirements and/or operational constraints are noted.

Conner, D. W.↗

Study of high-speed civil transports

A systems study to identify the economic potential for a high-speed commercial transport (HSCT) has considered technology, market characteristics, airport infrastructure, and environmental issues. Market forecasts indicate a need for HSCT service in the 2000/2010 time frame conditioned on economic viability and environmental acceptability. Design requirements focused on a 300 passenger, 3 class service, and 6500 nautical mile range based on the accelerated growth of the Pacific region. Compatibility with existing airports was an assumed requirement. Mach numbers between 2 and 25 were examined in conjunction with the appropriate propulsion systems, fuels, structural materials, and thermal management systems. Aircraft productivity was a key parameter with aircraft worth, in comparison to aircraft price, being the airline-oriented figure of merit. Aircraft screening led to determination that Mach 3.2 (TSJF) would have superior characteristics to Mach 5.0 (LNG) and the recommendation that the next generation high-speed commercial transport aircraft use a kerosene fuel. The sensitivity of aircraft performance and economics to environmental constraints (e.g., sonic boom, engine emissions, and airport/community noise) was identified together with key technologies. In all, current technology is not adequate to produce viable HSCTs for the world marketplace. Technology advancements must be accomplished to meet environmental requirements (these requirements are as yet undetermined for sonic boom and engine emissions). High priority is assigned to aircraft gross weight reduction which benefits both economics and environmental aspects. Specific technology requirements are identified and national economic benefits are projected.

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Geolocation applications of the Gonets LEO messaging satellites

Geostationary satellites carry a majority of the international telecommunications traffic not carried by transoceanic cable. However, because the radio path links to and from geostationary satellites total at least 70,000 km and because of inherent on-board spacecraft power limitations, earth stations used in conjunction with geostationary satellites are usually large and expensive. This limits their installation to areas with a well-developed industrial and economic infrastructure. This reality helps perpetuate a chicken egg dilemma for the developing countries and isolated regions. Economic integration with the developed world requires being 'networked'. But for many developing entities, even the initial price of entry exceeds their modest resources. Exclusion from the global information highways virtually assures retardation of economic growth for developing nations, remote and isolated areas. Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) earth stations are often thought of as a solution for networking developing regions. But economic considerations often forecloses this option. If VSAT size and cost is to be minimized, powerful spot beams from the satellite need to be focused on relatively small regions. This is not often feasible because of the high cost of the satellite itself. To dedicate a high power spot beam to a small region is usually not economically feasible.

Vlasov, Vladimir N.↗

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

Coordinating AgMIP Data and Models Across Global and Regional Scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C Assessments

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some bread basket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

interdisciplinary↗

NO2 Anomalies - Economy Attribution and Rapid Climate Response

Using principal component (PC) analysis of 16 years of monthly series of NO2 from OMI/Aura, we show that it is the third PC (PC3) from the full hierarchy of principal modes that is best coupled with the economic indicators. This coupling is positive, i.e. PC3 and economic indicators manifest positive covariance. However, the economic variability can explain only 40% of the information in PC3. Furthermore, this mode by itself explains only 3% of the total deseasonalized NO2 variability. We thus conclude that, while having an unambiguous impact, the economy can be awarded at best third order of importance in driving the deseasonalized NO2 series, i.e. after seasonal variability is removed from the series. Once we identified PC3 as the NO2 mode that is coupled with economic variability, we use this mode as an indicator and look for rapid climate adjustments to that part of NO2 variability that we are confident is coupled with the economic variability. We focus on observational data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board of NASA Aqua satellite, decompose series of surface skin temperature and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiances (OLR) into principal components, and identify potential impacts of NO2 PC3 on these climate variables.

NO2↗

NO2 Anomalies - Economy Attribution and Rapid Climate Response

Using principal component (PC) analysis of 16 years of monthly series of NO2 from OMI/Aura, we show that it is the third PC (PC3) from the full hierarchy of principal modes that is best coupled with the economic indicators. This coupling is positive, i.e. PC3 and economic indicators manifest positive covariance. However, the economic variability can explain only 40%of the information in PC3. Furthermore, this mode by itself explains only 3% of the total deseasonalized NO2 variability. We thus conclude that, while having an unambiguous impact, the economy can be awarded at best third order of importance in driving the deseasonalized NO2 series, i.e. after seasonal variability is removed from the series. Once we identified PC3 as the NO2 mode that is coupled with economic variability, we use this mode as an indicator and look for rapid climate adjustments to that part of NO2 variability that we are confident is coupled with the economic variability. We focus on observational data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board of NASA Aqua satellite, decompose series of surface skin temperature and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiances (OLR) into principal components, and identify potential impacts of NO2 PC3 on these climate variables.

NO2↗

Migration and Livelihood Constellations: Assessing Common Themes in the Face of Environmental Change in Somalia and Among Agro-Pastoral Peoples

Research on migration has become more challenging due to at least four factors: (1) more complex migration traditions; (2) the development of migration economies that engage many types of migrants from ever more social and cultural backgrounds; (3) increasing likelihood of climate change-driven environmental migration; and (4) increasing likelihood of conflict-based migration in some contexts. These developments have shaken economic theories of migration and have encouraged interdisciplinary, methodologically mixed, qualitative and quantitative research and analysis. From a review of the literature, we have gleaned 11 common themes about environmental, economic and conflict migration that we differentiate by process (migration behaviours that are still evolving) and patterns (migration behaviours that have become customary). We then consider how positive and negative dimensions of migration can be captured and represented with close attention to livelihood constellations (multiple economic activities combined by individuals, households and families). Finally, focusing on Somalia and agro-pastoral peoples generally, where recent environmental and conflict migration have been added to decades of economic migration and centuries of seasonal, environmental migration associated with pastoralism, we combine historical and qualitative work to demonstrate the value of a livelihood constellation perspective.

migration↗

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Kaufman, G. M.↗

A perspective on short-haul STOL

Discussion of the basic incentives motivating the development of the short-haul STOL air transportation system. The technological impact on the aircraft and its related economics required to achieve short field performance is generally detrimental. Considerations such as wing and empennage sizing, engine thrust sizing and cycle selection, thrust reverser requirements, cruise Mach number effects, noise, and fuel usage impacts are discussed. The direct operating economics are adversely affected, although it is thought that the indirect costs can be correspondingly reduced. A study of the total operating costs of the short-haul system and its related fare structure indicates that a definite potential exists for the evolution of an economically viable system yielding positive returns on investment to the operators. It is concluded that this potential is sufficient to warrant more detailed studies of these economics and the alternative implementation schemes.

Malthan, L. V.↗

A plan for application system verification tests: The value of improved meteorological information, volume 1

The framework within which the Applications Systems Verification Tests (ASVTs) are performed and the economic consequences of improved meteorological information demonstrated is described. This framework considers the impact of improved information on decision processes, the data needs to demonstrate the economic impact of the improved information, the data availability, the methodology for determining and analyzing the collected data and demonstrating the economic impact of the improved information, and the possible methods of data collection. Three ASVTs are considered and program outlines and plans are developed for performing experiments to demonstrate the economic consequences of improved meteorological information. The ASVTs are concerned with the citrus crop in Florida, the cotton crop in Mississippi and a group of diverse crops in Oregon. The program outlines and plans include schedules, manpower estimates and funding requirements.

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Space-Based Solar Power Conversion and Delivery Systems Study. Volume 1: Executive Summary

The research concerning space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems is summarized. The potential concepts for a photovoltaic satellite solar power system was studied with emphasis on ground output power levels of 5,000 MW and 10,000 MW. A power relay satellite, and certain aspects of the economics of these systems were also studied. A second study phase examined in greater depth the technical and economic aspects of satellite solar power systems. Throughout this study, the focus was on the economics of satellite solar power. The results indicate technical feasibility of the concept, and provide a preliminary economic justification for the first phase of a substantial development program. A development program containing test satellites is recommended. Also, development of alternative solar cell materials (other than silicon) is recommended.

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Inspection error and its adverse effects - A model with implications for practitioners

Inspection error has clearly been shown to have adverse effects upon the results desired from a quality assurance sampling plan. These effects upon performance measures have been well documented from a statistical point of view. However, little work has been presented to convince the QC manager of the unfavorable cost consequences resulting from inspection error. This paper develops a very general, yet easily used, mathematical cost model. The basic format of the well-known Guthrie-Johns model is used. However, it is modified as required to assess the effects of attributes sampling errors of the first and second kind. The economic results, under different yet realistic conditions, will no doubt be of interest to QC practitioners who face similar problems daily. Sampling inspection plans are optimized to minimize economic losses due to inspection error. Unfortunately, any error at all results in some economic loss which cannot be compensated for by sampling plan design; however, improvements over plans which neglect the presence of inspection error are possible. Implications for human performance betterment programs are apparent, as are trade-offs between sampling plan modification and inspection and training improvements economics.

Collins, R. D., Jr.↗

Power conditioning subsystems for photovoltaic central-station power plants - Technology and performance

Central-Station (CS) Photovoltaic (PV) systems have the potential of economically displacing significant amounts of centrally generated electricity. However, the technical viability and, to some extent, the economic viability of central-station PV generation technology will depend upon the availability of large power conditioners that are efficient, safe, reliable, and economical. This paper is an overview of the technical and cost requirements that must be met to develop economically viable power conditioning subsystems (PCS) for central-station power plants. The paper also examines various already commercially available PCS hardware that may be suitable for use in today's central PV power stations.

Krauthamer, S.↗

GPACC program cost work breakdown structure-dictionary. General purpose aft cargo carrier study, volume 3

The results of detailed cost estimates and economic analysis performed on the updated Model 101 configuration of the general purpose Aft Cargo Carrier (ACC) are given. The objective of this economic analysis is to provide the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with information on the economics of using the ACC on the Space Transportation System (STS). The detailed cost estimates for the ACC are presented by a work breakdown structure (WBS) to ensure that all elements of cost are considered in the economic analysis and related subsystem trades. Costs reported by WBS provide NASA with a basis for comparing competing designs and provide detailed cost information that can be used to forecast phase C/D planning for new projects or programs derived from preliminary conceptual design studies. The scope covers all STS and STS/ACC launch vehicle cost impacts for delivering payloads to a 160 NM low Earth orbit (LEO).

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