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At least 613 records · Page 34

James Webb Space Telescope Orbit Determination Analysis

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is designed to study and answer fundamental astrophysical questions from an orbit about the Sun-Earth/Moon L2 libration point, 1.5 million km away from Earth. This paper describes the results of an orbit determination (OD) analysis of the JWST mission emphasizing the challenges specific to this mission in various mission phases. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers during launch and early orbit phase and transfer orbit phase are required for the spacecraft to reach L2. These three MCC maneuvers are MCC-1a at Launch+12 hours, MCC-1b at L+2.5 days and MCC-2 at L+30 days. Accurate OD solutions are needed to support MCC maneuver planning. A preliminary analysis shows that OD performance with the given assumptions is adequate to support MCC maneuver planning. During the nominal science operations phase, the mission requires better than 2 cm/sec velocity estimation performance to support stationkeeping maneuver planning. The major challenge to accurate JWST OD during the nominal science phase results from the unusually large solar radiation pressure force acting on the huge sunshield. Other challenges are stationkeeping maneuvers at 21-day intervals to keep JWST in orbit around L2, frequent attitude reorientations to align the JWST telescope with its targets and frequent maneuvers to unload momentum accumulated in the reaction wheels. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the proposed OD approach can produce solutions that meet the mission requirements.

Libration Point Orbit↗

James Webb Space Telescope Orbit Determination Analysis

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is designed to study and answer fundamental astrophysical questions from an orbit about the Sun-EarthMoon L2 libration point, 1.5 million km away from Earth. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers during launch and early orbit phase and transfer orbit phase are required for the spacecraft to reach L2. These three MCC maneuvers are MCC-1a at Launch+12 hours, MCC-1b at L+2.5 days and MCC-2 at L+30 days. Accurate orbit determination (OD) solutions are needed to support MCC maneuver planning. A preliminary analysis shows that OD performance with the given assumptions is adequate to support MCC maneuver planning. During the nominal science operations phase, the mission requires better than 2 cmsec velocity estimation performance to support stationkeeping maneuver planning. The major challenge to accurate JWST OD during the nominal science phase results from the unusually large solar radiation pressure force acting on the huge sunshield. Other challenges are stationkeeping maneuvers at 21-day intervals to keep JWST in orbit around L2, frequent attitude reorientations to align the JWST telescope with its targets and frequent maneuvers to unload momentum accumulated in the reaction wheels. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the proposed OD approach can produce solutions that meet the mission requirements.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Some features of the small-scale solar wind fluctuations

We have investigated small-scale variations of the solar wind ion flux measured with Faraday cups onboard the Prognoz-8 satellite. These measurements have a high time resolution of 1.24 seconds for intervals with a duration of several hours and as high as 0.02 seconds for some periods of about 1 hour duration. The main goal of this work is the determination of the quantitative features of fast ion flux fluctuations using mainly spectral analysis but also other methods. We also identify their association with interplanetary plasma parameters. Particularly, it is shown that the slope of the power spectra in the frequency range from 1E-4 to 6E-2 Hz is close to the classical Kolmogorov (-5/3) law. We also discuss some intervals with a very high level of the relative amplitude of flux fluctuations (10-20 percent) which were observed near the Earth's bow shock in the foreshock region. The use of the wavelet method for the long time series allows us to study the temporal evolution of power spectra.

Zastenker, G.↗

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗

The performance of trellis-coded MDPSK with multiple symbol detection

The idea of using a multiple (more than two) symbol observation interval to improve error probability performance is applied to differential detection of trellis-coded multiple phase-shift keying (MPSK) over an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. An equivalent Euclidean distance measure per trellis branch is determined for this detection scheme. This is used to define an augmented (larger multiplicity) trellis code whose distance measure is the conventional squared Euclidean distance typical of conventional trellis-coded modulation on the AWGN. Such an augmented multiple trellis code is a convenient mathematical tool for simplifying the analysis. Results are obtained by a combination of analysis (upper Chernoff bounds and asymptotic large-SNR approximations) and computer simulation. It is shown that only a slight increase (e.g., one symbol) in the length of the observation interval will provide a significant improvement in bit error probability performance.

Divsalar, Dariush↗

Spatial characteristics of observed precipitation fields: A catalog of summer storms in Arizona, Volume 2

The parameters of the conceptual model are evaluated from the analysis of eight years of summer rainstorm data from the dense raingage network in the Walnut Gulch catchment near Tucson, Arizona. The occurrence of measurable rain at any one of the 93 gages during a noon to noon day defined a storm. The total rainfall at each of the gages during a storm day constituted the data set for a single storm. The data are interpolated onto a fine grid and analyzed to obtain: an isohyetal plot at 2 mm intervals, the first three moments of point storm depth, the spatial correlation function, the spatial variance function, and the spatial distribution of the total storm depth. The description of the data analysis and the computer programs necessary to read the associated data tapes are presented.

Fennessey, N. M.↗

An analysis of aircraft requirements to meet United States Department of Agriculture remote sensing goals

The survey needs of the U.S. Department of Agriculture are immense, ranging from individual crop coverage at specific intervals to general land use classification. The aggregate of all desirable resolutions and sensor types applicable to airborne platforms yields an annual survey coverage rate equivalent to about 6 times the U.S. land area. An intermediate annual survey level equal to the U.S. area can meet all currently perceived crop survey needs and provide sample imagery over many other resource areas. This decreased survey level can be accomplished with one or two high altitude aircraft or medium altitude aircraft. Survey costs range from about 25 cents to several dollars per square nautical mile depending primarily on resolution requirements and the aircraft used.

Arno, R. D.↗

Particle Detectors and Data Analysis for Cusp Transient Features Campaign

On December 3, 1997, a rocket payload (36.152) was launched from Ny Alesund into the dark cusp at 0906:00 U (1206:00 LT) during an interval of southward B(sub Z), and positive B(sub y). Launch occurred during a time interval of northeastward moving auroral forms observed between 0845 and 0945 UT by ground-based meridian scanning photometers. Ground photometric measurements during the flight show that the payload passed over the poleward portion of the most intense 6300 A emissions of the dayside cusp/cleft region. Electrons of energy up to a few hundred eV were detected immediately upon instrument turn-on at an altitude of 205 km and throughout the flight until the payload reached an altitude of approximately 197 km on the downleg. Electron spectra were either quasithermal with peak energies approximately 100 eV or showed evidence of acceleration along the magnetic field line by potentials of 100-200 V. Precipitating ions were observed throughout much of the flight. Their spectra were broadly peaked in energy with the peak energy decreasing from approximately 500 eV to approximately 250 eV as the payload flew approximately westward over the dayside precipitationregion. Structure(spatial or temporal intensity variation) was observed between T + 180 s and T + approximately 400 s. At the rocket altitudes(less than 450km) the ions were observed to be precipitating. During the flight, the DMSPF-13 satellite passed through the all-sky imager field-of-view just poleward of the brightest dayside emissions enabling the identification of plasma sheet and boundary layer regions along the orbit. We thus conclude that particle fluxes detected by the rocket flight were either cusp plasma or boundary layer/mantle plasmajust poleward of the dayside cusp/cleft. Further investigation of the particle characteristics and their relationship to ionospheric convection patterns is continuing.

Sharber, James R.↗

Navigation analysis for Viking 1979, option B

A parametric study performed for 48 trans-Mars reference missions in support of the Viking program is reported. The launch dates cover several months in the year 1979, and each launch date has multiple arrival dates in 1980. A plot of launch versus arrival dates with case numbers designated for reference purposes is included. The analysis consists of the computation of statistical covariance matrices based on certain assumptions about the ground-based tracking systems. The error model statistics are listed in tables. Tracking systems were assumed at three sites: Goldstone, California; Canberra, Australia; and Madrid, Spain. The tracking data consisted of range and Doppler measurements taken during the tracking intervals starting at E-30(d) and ending at E-10(d) for the control data and ending at E-18(h) for the knowledge data. The control and knowledge covariance matrices were delivered to the Planetary Mission Analysis Branch for inputs into a delta V dispersion analysis.

Mitchell, P. H.↗

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Shantaram, S. Pai↗

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

Winters, Katherine A.↗

Recent developments in thermal analysis of large space structures

A numerical procedure for analysis of shadowed space heating of sparse structures, SSQ, is discussed. The SSQ program avoids inordinate computational complexity by confining attention to a single elemental location on a structural member of interest throughout an entire orbital period, proceeding then to similar treatment of individual alternate locations. The procedure considers a spacecraft in circular orbit and assumes fixed-Earth orientation of the spacecraft. Shadow orientation and interval duration, merged shadows, and computation of solar heat flux and thermal response are addressed. The output options of the SSQ FORTRAN 5 program and its efficiency are discussed. Application of the system to the analysis of a parabolic expandable truss antenna is considered.

Oneill, R. F.↗

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗

Cohesive and adhesive degradation in PET-based photovoltaic backsheets subjected to ultraviolet accelerated weathering

Delamination between layers in photovoltaic (PV) backsheets is often reported in the literature, causing voids that can collect moisture, diminish module backside heat dissipation, and reduce the backsheet’s effectiveness as a physical barrier. While backsheets with weathering-resistant fluoropolymer outer layers have traditionally been used in modules, more recent backsheets using non-fluoropolymer outer layers, such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET), have been developed. These backsheets have shown signs of premature degradation, and their adhesion degradation, in particular, has not been widely studied. In the present work, the single cantilever beam (SCB) adhesion test was used to quantify the adhesion energy in two commercially available PET-based backsheets. To study the effect of minor changes in formulation, the backsheets were obtained from same manufacturer and product line but during different years. To study the effect of environmental variables on adhesion degradation, the backsheets were subjected to artificial weathering at controlled temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) radiation in an indoor weathering chamber, and the adhesion energy was quantified at several intervals of exposure time. Layering structure, composition, and adhesion failure mode were compared between the backsheets, using Raman and infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetric analysis. The results show a large difference in initial (unexposed) adhesion energy between the backsheets, despite very similar structures and compositions. Following exposure, adhesion energy dropped significantly, primarily due to thermo-hydrolytic degradation of the polyurethane (PU)-based adhesive layers. Significant UV-induced adhesion degradation of the PET outer layer surface was also observed. The study represents an important step in understanding adhesion degradation in PET-based backsheets, suggesting ways in which adhesion integrity – and, correspondingly, module service life – can be improved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗