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At least 613 records · Page 34

Report for Department of State (DoS) V-Fund Project "Tying Moment Tensor Solutions to Explosive Yield"

The goal of this study was to use U.S. nuclear explosions with known source parameters (yield, depth, shot point material and/or parameters) to determine moment-derived yield estimates. This work has been accomplished by performing full moment tensor solutions using regional network data from the LLNL network, and other regional broadband stations. As part of this study, we have calculated solutions for 130 U.S. nuclear explosions and 12 additional chemical explosions. We then take several approaches to using moment tensors to estimate yield, considering both the full and isotropic moment tensors, doing straight regression analysis on the whole dataset, then successively refining the calibration with additional information about material and overburden. We have also tried a completely new approach of using the seismic moment to help estimate the radiated seismic energy and tying this to yield through a seismic efficiency. Results appear to be promising, but more work might be required to make this more useful in an operational sense.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interpretation of Mineralogical Diagenesis for Assessment of Radionuclide Transport at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

Pahute Mesa (PM) in southern Nevada was one of the four principal underground nuclear testing areas at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), known as the “Nevada Test Site” until 2010 (Figure 1). Eighty-two underground nuclear tests were conducted at PM in northwestern corner of NNSS (USDOE, 2015). The PM area of underground nuclear testing is located near the center of the Pahute Mesa and Oasis Valley (PM-OV) groundwater basin, which discharges to the southwest near Oasis Valley (OV) north of Beatty, Nevada (Fenelon et al. 2016; Jackson et al., 2020). Most of the PM tests were located at depths near or below the regional water table and, therefore, present potential sources of groundwater contamination from release of test-related radionuclides.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Project "Cropland Abandonment Mapping" (Final Report)

Cropland abandonment is a common type of land-use change across the globe and can be caused by a range of social, economic, and environmental factors. Cropland abandonment has wide-ranging effects on the environment, especially on biodiversity and carbon storage. Despite the importance of cropland monitoring, cropland abandonment is difficult to map and not routinely monitored. In this project, we propose to investigate cropland abandonment using remote sensing technique for the application of carbon storage in Eurasia, where experienced extensive cropland abandonment because of drastic social-economic changes since the 1990s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Jaynesian Analysis of Environmental Chemistry: Systems Model Component Integration via the Arctic Aquatic Carbon Cycle

Focal Areas: All three are touched upon from the OBER call. We will consider formal logical inference and entropic information analysis for sparse but intensive chemical measurements, as optimal drivers for managing process complexity. As a centerpiece for the discussion we take soil-to-sea organic structural evolution within the Arctic hydro-geochemosphere, assessing detrital negentropy then algorithmic greed to generate ranked, reduced mechanisms for system integration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) (Final Report)

The objective of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) was to provide a long-term field site to develop and validate new knowledge and technology to improve recovery efficiency and minimize environmental implications of unconventional resource development. MSEEL initiated in October 2014 and completed in September 2021. Total project value was $\$29,765,067$, support from the US Department of energy totaled $\$16,608,355$ with a cost share of $\$13,156,712$ primarily from Northeast Natural Energy. This report in a departure from previous reports summarizes the overarching results and outlines the approach taken. We cover two recent efforts in machine learning and reservoir characterization and simulation. Numerous quarterly reports, public presentations and numerous external publications cover specific results by subtopic and in detail. Publications are listed in the Appendix.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulation of Chilled-water Injection at EGS Collab Testbed 2 using the GEOS simulation framework

This work seeks to model the chilled-water injection that occurred at EGS Collab Testbed 2 as part of experiment 3, using the open-source GEOS simulation framework. Modeling of this process, previously conducted using STOMP-GT, confirmed that thermal breakthrough was expected to occur during the chill water injection and may have been masked by strong Joule-Thompsons effects induced by large pressure drops between the fractures and the production wells. Building a GEOS numerical model of this process will allow to include additional physics. In fact, GEOS can model fully coupled thermo-poromechanical processes in fractured porous media and can be employed to model the process of artificially enhancing rock permeability by hydraulically fracturing the rocks. For example, the GEOS model could help understanding the dynamic nature of the EGS collab experiment 3 flow system. Since the limited time and resources do not allow for an extensive study, the focus is on building a baseline model of this process. As such, the main outcomes of this modelling efforts are listed below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A multi-Physics Experiment for Low-Yield Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

A series of multi-physics experiments, referred to as Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) is underway at the United States’ Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The PE1 series includes detonations of three underground chemical explosions in P-tunnel, with fully coupled (PE1 A), partially decoupled (PE1 D L ), and fully decoupled (PE1 B) emplacements. Canisters with gas tracers are imbedded in the explosives, and the tracers are released when the canister is destroyed by the detonation. A dedicated electromagnetic (EM) experiment (EMX) generates well-characterized EM signals at an underground location near the chemical explosive experiments. A series of atmospheric experiments (METEX, REACT, and METREX) release smoke and radioactive tracers around Aqueduct Mesa to test gas transport in complex topography. Each of the chemical explosive experiments includes a network of sensors to record seismic, acoustic, and electromagnetic waves, measurement of atmospheric conditions, and air sample collection for measurement of tracer concentration. EMX records EM signals underground and on the surface of Aqueduct Mesa. METEX, REACT, and METREX include measurement of atmospheric condition, as well as tracking smoke releases. REACT and METREX add low-level radioactive gas tracers to the atmospheric releases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ORION Code Infrastructure Upgrades

Prior to this update, ORION was capable of processing cases and data that spanned a single UTM zone and assumed that all spatial inputs were given in units of meters. During the 2024 SMART bridge funding period, we completed upgrades to the code that permit general spatial projections, basin-scale datasets, and units.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LYNM PE1 Shot A Meteorology Team Technical Report

Weather support for Shot A was done by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) / Special Operations and Research Division (SORD) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Weather support activities included wind and precipitation forecasting, maintaining and monitoring PE1 meteorology towers MT02-11, maintaining and monitoring the ARL/SORD tower on Aqueduct Mesa (A12AI, also called MT01), maintaining and monitoring the Blackbrush energy flux tower, radiosonde preparation and launch, providing weather conditions on shot day for go/no-go criteria, and quality control and submission of the datasets. ARL/SORD additionally maintains and monitors the meteorological tower network (Mesonet) and sodar (at Desert Rock) for NNSS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources and Its Activities

The National Academies’ Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR) and its standing committees provide an ongoing forum for advancing the understanding and communication of Earth sciences and resource topics, including emerging topics and innovative techniques. BESR activities help to provide evidence-based information to members of the executive and legislative branches of the federal government, the private sector, states and tribes, academia, non-governmental organizations, and the public to support decision-making. BESR and its standing Committee on Solid Earth Geophysics (COSEG), also supported by this award, fulfill this role through development and administration of consensus studies, as well as workshops and other convening activities related to the Earth sciences; overseeing selected activities of the Board’s standing committees, such as disciplinary meetings and webinars; and communicating, sharing information, and providing opportunities for interaction and exchange among technical and non-technical stakeholders. The core support received from DOE helps BESR and COSEG maintain a central body of volunteer experts and National Academies staff who can respond to pressing needs and requests from federal sponsors and other members of the Earth science community, to maintain the health and relevance of the Earth sciences discipline, and to provide the Earth science community with a privileged interface to the government to support scientific and engineering advances and decision making related to Earth sciences and engineering. Initiation and oversight of Earth science activities at the National Academies is an enduring function of the BESR and COSG that helps to ensure development and completion of projects and activities that are responsive to the needs of sponsors and the broader Earth science and research enterprise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint waveform tomography of East Asia for improved waveform prediction

We present a preliminary version of the East Asia Tomography (EAT) model, an adjoint waveform tomography model of East and Southeast Asia. We used SPiRaL (Simmons et al., 2021) as our starting model and source parameters for 238 earthquakes from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue (Ekström et al., 2012). After 50 iterations on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Lassen supercomputer, we converge on a model with a minimum period of 50 seconds. The preliminary model shows improved slab structure compared to SPiRaL and shows significantly reduced misfit. In later versions of the model, we aim to harness techniques proposed in other studies to improve waveform predictions that travel through the ocean (e.g., Wehner et al., 2022) and use relative amplitude-based misfit functions (e.g., Tao et al., 2018) to better constrain Earth structure. We hope to iterate the current extent of the model to 25 seconds minimum period before iterating to shorter periods for a smaller subregion of the full model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing Stress Roughness at Utah FORGE Through Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Growth During 16A Stage 3 Stimulation

In most geologic formations, the vertical gradient of the minimum horizontal stress (𝜎 h ) exceeds the hydrostatic gradient, often driving hydraulic fractures to propagate upward. However, observations indicate that the upward growth of real hydraulic fractures is less pronounced than theoretical predictions based on smoothly varying 𝜎 h fields. In fact, the layered structure of sedimentary rocks hinders fracture propagation across layers, partially explaining the limited height growth observed in practice (Zoback et al., 2022). While crystalline rocks lack the pervasive layered fabric of sedimentary formations, they still possess structural fabric formed over their geologic history, resulting in inherently "rough" in situ stress fields. Recent studies have identified another key factor: the "roughness" of in situ stress, characterized by temporal, relatively short-wavelength fluctuations superimposed on the overall stress gradient. This stress roughness leads to apparent toughness anisotropy, where the vertical toughness appears significantly larger than the horizontal toughness (P. Fu et al., 2019; Dontsov & Suarez-Rivera, 2021). Neglecting the effects of rock fabric and stress roughness can yield inaccurate predictions of hydraulic fracture geometry and growth rates at larger length scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Connecting In Situ Stress and Wellbore Deviation to Near-Well Fracture Complexity Using Phase-Field Simulations

The interactions among in situ stress, rock fabric, wellbore geometry, natural fractures, and other natural or man-made defects create highly complex fracture trajectories in the near-wellbore region, far more intricate than those in the far-field. These near-wellbore complexities are critical for the Utah FORGE project and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in general. Frictional pressure loss in the near-wellbore region during stimulation can significantly influence the growth of far-field fractures, while pressure losses during circulation serve as a major source of energy dissipation. Near-wellbore fracture complexities are often observable through image logs, offering valuable insights into in situ stress characteristics. However, leveraging this information requires a high-fidelity model capable of capturing the interplay among the diverse factors influencing fracture behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy

Hidden geothermal systems represent a potentially prolific energy resource that could support critical U.S. public and government energy priorities. Basin and Range Investigations for Developing Geothermal Energy (BRIDGE) addressed some the challenges associated with hidden system exploration by prioritizing cost-effective exploration early on through strategic workflow and informed decision-making that mitigates early risk and shifts resources to later exploration stages (e.g., drilling). Sandia National Laboratories partnered with U.S. Navy Geothermal Office, Geologic Geothermal Group, and independent consultants, with additional collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey and private industry. The primary tool of the BRIDGE project was to deploy a regional-scale airborne electromagnetic method to investigate the shallow resistivity structure in areas with high prospectivity. This was followed up at several prospects by a multidisciplinary exploration approach, including additional geologic, geophysical and geochemical studies. A central tenet to the BRIDGE methodology is that zones of low resistivity frequently occur over geothermal systems in the Basin and Range, and when paired with other data constraints, imaging these zones can enable discovery of these systems. In addition to exploring greenfield areas (i.e., Grover Point), the BRIDGE project also flew HTEM resistivity surveys over known geothermal systems including those with established power plants (Don A. Campbell and Salt Wells) and prospects that are known to the literature but remain undeveloped, at least in part, due to a lack of understanding on the location of their producible reservoirs. BRIDGE produced a comprehensive set of data from prospects identified in the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis along with conceptual models for top ranking prospects, wherein all of the observations are used to inform an interpreted model of the system. These models present a range of possible system parameters such as temperature and size, and they are further informed by system analogues in the Basin and Range province and elsewhere. The results of this work leave space for further exploration that may now occur at prospects ‘down the list’ rather than distribution exploration resources evenly across all prospects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report

On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗