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At least 613 records · Page 34

Gap Flows Along the Columbia River Observed During the WFIP2 Field Campaign

Data collected in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin Area during the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) was used to study gap flow events in the region. In particular, the relationship between 200 m zonal wind speed and the zonal mesoscale pressure gradient at Troutdale (West of the gorge), Wasco (east of the gorge), and Boardman (farther east of the gorge) sites was examined. An objective criterion was used to identify 169 (Troutdale), 161 (Wasco), and 113 (Boardman) gap flow days that had weak synoptic forcing. The 200 m zonal wind speed exhibited a linear relationship with the zonal pressure gradient at Wasco during both easterly and westerly gap flow days at daily timescales. Such a relationship was only observed during easterly gap flow days at Troutdale and was not observed at Boardman. The zonal wind speed exhibited a diurnal cycle at Wasco and Boardman, with greater changes in the nighttime winds than the daytime winds due to changes in pressure gradient. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) between the observed pressure gradient at Wasco and that simulated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in 3 km (HRRR-3km) and 750 m (HRRR-750m) horizontal resolution were 3.14 hPa and 0.57 hPa, respectively. However, the RMSDs for the 200 m zonal wind speed were 1.40 m s -1 for HRRR-3km and 1.20 m s -1 for HRRR- 750m. Improvement in simulating the zonal pressure gradient accompanied by negligible changes in simulating zonal wind speed due to higher horizontal resolution points to a complex interplay between different components of the model physics when simulating the meteorology. The HRRR-750m resolution model accurately mimicked the observed covariability (phase diagram) between the zonal pressure gradient and the 200 m zonal wind speed during the nighttime, but not during the daytime, suggesting model errors might be related to the representation of boundary layer processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Membrane Platforms to Interrogate Host-Pathogen Interactions

Membrane fusion is a critical step in enveloped virus entry and infection; however, molecular understanding of enveloped virus entry and treatment options remain limited. In recent decades, advances in imaging have facilitated the development of methods to study single virus events and membrane organization providing insight towards entry mechanisms. Through these advances, membrane composition and organization have been shown to play a critical role in the entry process. This LDRD uses model membrane platforms and basic biophysics to investigate entry mechanisms of enveloped viruses and understand membrane-based delivery technologies. This team has established foundations for using membrane-based platforms and biophysical techniques at Sandia to characterize membrane fusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Grand Scan of the pMSSM Parameter Space for Snowmass 2021

We present a flexible framework for interpretation of SUSY sensitivity studies for future colliders in terms of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM). We perform a grand scan of the pMSSM 19-dimensional parameter space that covers the accessible ranges of many collider scenarios, including electron, muon, and hadron colliders at a variety of center of mass energies. This enables comparisons of sensitivity and complementarity across different future experiments, including both colliders and precision measurements in the Cosmological and Rare Frontiers. The details of the scan framework are discussed, and the impact of future precision measurements on Higgs couplings, the anomalous muon magnetic moment, and dark matter quantities is presented. The next steps for this ongoing effort include performing studies with simulated events in order to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of selected future colliders in the context of the pMSSM.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of Differential Neutral Current Elastic $ν_μ$-Argon Scattering Cross Sections with MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85 ton active mass liquid-argon time projection chamber located in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beamline. MicroBooNE’s ability to detect low-energy protons allows us to study single proton events with momenta as low as 300 MeV/c. We present a measurement of the flux-averaged neutral-current elastic differential cross section for neutrinos scattering on argon as functions of four-momentum transfer squared, Q 2 , proton kinetic energy, momentum and angle with respect to the beam direction. Our measured cross section as a function of Q 2 goes as low Q 2 = 0.10 GeV2 . This is our first step towards extracting the strange quark contribution to the axial form factor, which is not only the least-constrained contribution to the neutral-current elastic scattering cross section but is also crucial for understanding the strange quark contribution to the proton spin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of Neutral Current Elastic Cross Section in MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85 ton active volume liquid-argon time projection chamber located in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beamline. MicroBooNE’s ability to detect low-energy protons allows us to study single proton events with a four-momentum transfer squared, Q$^2$, as low as 0.10 GeV$^2$. We present a measurement of the flux-averaged neutral-current elastic differential cross sections for neutrinos scattering on argon as a function of Q$^2$, proton momentum and proton angle with respect to the direction of the neutrino beam. This is our first step towards extracting the strange quark contribution to the axial form factor, which is not only the least-constrained contribution to the neutral-current elastic scattering cross section but is also crucial for understanding the strange quark contribution to the proton spin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Benchmarking numerical methods for impact and cratering applications

Large scale computational models are important for studying impact cratering events that are prevalent both on Earth and, more broadly, in this solar system. To address these problems, models must reliably account for both large length scales (e.g., kilometers) and relatively long time scales (hundreds of seconds). This work benchmarks two such approaches, a more traditional hydrodynamics approach and a finite-discrete element method (FDEM), for impact cratering applications. Both 2D and 3D results are discussed for two different impact velocities, 5 km/s and 20 km/s, striking normal to the target and, for 3D simulations, 45° from vertical. In addition, comparisons to previously published data are presented. Finally, differences in how these methods model damage are discussed. Ultimately, both approaches show successful modeling of several different impact scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling Electron Acceleration and Transport in the Early Impulsive Phase of the 2017 September 10th Solar Flare

The X8.2-class limb flare on 2017 September 10 is among the best studied solar flare events owing to its great similarity to the standard flare model and the broad coverage by multiple spacecraft and ground-based observations. These multiwavelength observations indicate that electron acceleration and transport are efficient in the reconnection and flare looptop regions. However, there lacks a comprehensive model for explaining and interpreting the multi-faceted observations. In this work, we model the electron acceleration and transport in the early impulsive phase of this flare. We solve the Parker transport equation that includes the primary acceleration mechanism during magnetic reconnection in the large-scale flare region modeled by MHD simulations. We find that electrons are accelerated up to several MeV and fill a large volume of the reconnection region, similar to the observations shown in microwaves. The electron spatial distribution and spectral shape in the looptop region agree well with those derived from the microwave and hard X-ray emissions before magnetic islands grow large and dominate the acceleration. Future emission modelings using the electron maps will enable direct comparison with microwave and hard X-ray observations. These results shed new light on the electron acceleration and transport in a broad region of solar flares within a data-constrained realistic flare geometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remote-sensing detectability of airborne Arctic dust

Remote-sensing (RS)-based estimates of Arctic dust are oftentimes overestimated due to a failure in separating out the dust contribution from that of spatially homogeneous clouds or low-altitude cloud-like plumes. A variety of illustrations are given with a particular emphasis on questionable claims of using brightness temperature differences (BTDs) as a signature indicator of Arctic dust transported from mid-latitude deserts or generated by local Arctic sources. While there is little dispute about the presence of both Asian and local dust across the Arctic, the direct RS detectability of airborne dust, as ascribed to satellite (MODIS and AVHRR) measurements of significantly negative brightness temperature differences at 11 and 12 µm (BTD 11–12 ), has been misrepresented in certain cases. While it is difficult to account for all examples of strongly negative BTD 11–12 values in the Arctic, it is unlikely that airborne dust plays a significant role. One much more likely contributor would be water clouds in the Arctic inversion layer. The RS detectability of the impact of Arctic dust (notably due to Arctic dust from local sources) can, however, be of significance. Sustained dust deposition can substantially decrease (visible to shortwave IR) snow and ice reflectance albedo (pan-chromatic reflectance) and the signal measured by satellite sensors. Significantly negative BTD 11–12 values would, however, only represent a limited area near the drainage basin sources according to our event-level case studies. The enhanced ice-nucleating particle (INP) role of local Arctic dust can, for example, induce significant changes in the properties of low-level mixed-phase clouds (cloud optical depth changes <~ 1) that can readily be detected by active and passive RS instruments. It is critical that the distinction between the RS detectability of airborne Arctic dust versus the RS detectability of the impacts of that dust be understood if we are to appropriately parameterize, for example, the radiative forcing influence of dust in this climate-sensitive region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic–boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ “hydrodynamic” models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter “frost drought” events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗

Evolutionary models of nucleosynthesis in the galaxy.

A model of the galaxy is constructed and evolved in which the integrated influence of stellar and supernova nucleosynthesis on the composition of the interstellar gas is traced numerically. Our detailed assumptions concerning the character of the matter released from evolving stars and supernovae are guided by the results of recent stellar evolutionary calculations and hydrodynamic studies of supernova events. It is difficult to visualize an epoch of massive star formation in the collapsing gas cloud which formed our galaxy which would enrich the gas rapidly enough to account for the level of heavy element abundances in halo population stars; we have therefore proposed a stage of star formation which is entirely pregalactic in character. We suggest that the Jeans' length-sized initial condensations in the expanding universe discussed by Peebles and Dicke may provide the appropriate setting for this first generation of stars. Guided by these considerations, and by the need for a substantial quantity of 'unseen' mass to bind our local group of galaxies, we have constructed a model of the galaxy in which this violent early phase of massive star formation produces both (1) approximately 25% of the level of heavy elements observed in the solar system and (2) an enormous unseen mass in the form of black holes.

Truran, J. W.↗

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

Twenty-three geomagnetic storm events during 1966 to 1970 were studied by using simultaneous interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters. Explorer 33 and 35 field and plasma data were analyzed on large-scale (hourly) and small-scale (3 min.) during the time interval coincident with the initial phase of the geomagnetic storms. The solar-ecliptic Bz component turns southward at the end of the initial phase, thus triggering the main phase decrease in Dst geomagnetic field. The By component also shows large fluctuations along with Bz. When there are no clear changes in the Bz component, the By shows abrupt changes at the main phase onset. On the small-scale, behavior of the magnetic field and electric field were studied in detail for the three events; it is found that the field fluctuations in By, Bz and Ey and Ez are present in the initial phase. In the large-scale, the behavior field remains quiet because the small-scale variations are averaged out. It appears that large as well as small time scale fluctuations in the interplanetary field and plasma help to alter the internal electromagnetic state of the magnetosphere so that a ring current could causing a geomagnetic storm decrease.

Patel, V. L.↗

The spatial variability of coastal surface water temperature during upwelling

Thermal scanner imagery acquired during a field experiment designed to study an upwelling event in Lake Superior is investigated. Temperature data were measured by the thermal scanner, with a spatial resolution of 7 m. These data were correlated with temperatures measured from boats. One- and two-dimensional Fourier transforms of the data were calculated and temperature variances as a function of wavenumber were plotted. A k-to-the-minus-three dependence of the temperature variance on wavenumber was found in the wavenumber range of 1-25/km. At wavenumbers greater than 25/km, a k-to-the-minus-five-thirds dependence was found.

Scarpace, F. L.↗

VAS temperature retrievals for NASA special network observations of 6 March 1982

VAS retrieval capability was studied. A mesoscale event consisting of a rapidly moving temperature perturbation with strong horizontal wind shear but shallow vertical extent occurred over Texas. The mesoscale event passed through the special radiosonde network and was documented with three hourly measurements. The event occurred behind a cold frontal cloud band during clear conditions. The event was accompanied by large skin temperature changes as the day progressed. This combination allows the testing of two important aspects of the retrieval algorithms with minimal cloud contamination and good ground truth. The first aspect concerns the horizontal and vertical resolving power of the retrievals and the second aspect concerns sensitivity to the boundary term. The NASA special network radiosonde is proven to be useful. It is demonstrated that: the VAS is capable, of delineating a mesoscale, normal retrieval procedure has the deficiency of oversmoothing, but this can be corrected, to document first quess dependence, and a superior data set to evolve better techniques for treating the surface boundary problem.

Hayden, C. M.↗

The energy spectra of solar energetic particles

A survey of recent results on the shapes and relative slopes of the spectra of various solar energetic particle populations is presented, with emphasis on the more extensive results currently available for protons, alphas and electrons. From previous work, it is found that proton spectra 0.8 to more than 400 MeV and alpha spectra 1.4 to 80 MeV/nucleon are best characterized, on average, by a functional form involving a Bessel function in momentum/nucleon. However, proton and alpha spectral slopes using this form are not equal, and there is significant variation from event to event. From other studies, electrons 0.02 to 20 MeV are also found to have curved spectra, but seem to be better fit with a double power law in energy. The spectral properties in both cases correlate with other measures of solar particle acceleration; e.g. gamma-ray line production, hard X-ray burst spectra and microwave fluxes.

Mcguire, R. E.↗

Super active regions and production of major solar flares

The success of imaging detectors with small fields of veiw such as HXIS or P/OF (Pinhole/Occulter Facility) depends heavily on pointing to the right place at the right time. During the solar maximum years many active regions coexist on the solar disk. Therefore, in order to point the imaging detector to the right place, it is important to know which active region is most likely to produce major flares. This knowledge is also important for flare prediction. As a first step toward this goal active regions have been identified which produced major flares observed by HXRBS (Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer) on SMM during February 1980 through December 1983. For this study the HXRBS Event List, an updated flare list compiled by the HXRBS group, and the Comprehensive Reports of the Solar Geophysical Data were used. During this period, HXRBS detected hard X-rays from approx 7000 solar flares, out of which only 441 flares produced X-rays with peak count rates exceeding 1000 counts/s. Flares with such high peak count rates are major flares. During the same time period about 2100 active regions passed across the solar disk, out of which only 153 were observed to produce major flares. (Some active regions are known to persist for several solar rotations, but at each passage new active region numbers are assigned and the estimate is based on active region numbers.) Out of these 153 active regions, 25 were observed to produce 5 or more major flares. Considering their high productivity of major flares, we may call these active regions super active regions. These 25 super active regions produced 209 major flares, accounting for 51% of all the major flares with identified active regions.

Bai, T.↗

International Halley Watch: Discipline specialists for large scale phenomena

The largest scale structures of comets, their tails, are extremely interesting from a physical point of view, and some of their properties are among the most spectacular displayed by comets. Because the tail(s) is an important component part of a comet, the Large-Scale Phenomena (L-SP) Discipline was created as one of eight different observational methods in which Halley data would be encouraged and collected from all around the world under the aspices of the International Halley Watch (IHW). The L-SP Discipline Specialist (DS) Team resides at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center under the leadership of John C. Brandt, Malcolm B. Niedner, and their team of image-processing and computer specialists; Jurgan Rahe at NASA Headquarters completes the formal DS science staff. The team has adopted the study of disconnection events (DE) as its principal science target, and it is because of the rapid changes which occur in connection with DE's that such extensive global coverage was deemed necessary to assemble a complete record.

Brandt, J. C.↗