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At least 613 records · Page 34

Methane Hydrates in Alaska

This paper was prepared for the National Petroleum Council's Study on Natural Gas GHG Emissions. Natural gas is the largest primary energy produced in the United States and its use is growing. Yet getting this gas to homes and businesses creates greenhouse gas emissions. That’s why reducing emissions from America’s natural gas is an urgent priority that requires collaborative solutions. The National Petroleum Council brought together a diverse group of stakeholders with the expertise to analyze this complex issue and identify ways to reduce natural gas GHG emissions for all future supply and demand scenarios. The result: actionable consensus on ensuring a lower-emission natural gas system. The study’s research charts a course forward to meaningfully reduce emissions from the natural gas system, contributing significantly to the United States’ ability to achieve its climate goals. The report concludes that through the implementation of existing policies, voluntary commitments, technologies, and market mechanisms, a 63% reduction in methane emissions can be achieved by 2030. The report went further to identify an additional pathway that methane emissions decrease by 70% and carbon dioxide emissions reduce by 33% through 2050.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. Unless utilization or storage occurs at the same location as carbon capture, which is rare, carbon must be transported from a point source to a utilization or storage site. Pipelines offer significant advantages for large-scale transportation of carbon dioxide over other methods. While studies show that reaching net-zero carbon emissions in the United States by 2050 will require between 29,000 and 66,000 miles of carbon pipelines, the U.S. had deployed fewer than 6,000 miles of carbon pipelines by 2022. Although closing this gap is important to achieving low-carbon goals, carbon pipelines operate in a complex and uncertain local, state and federal regulatory landscape and face public concerns about safety and siting. This report covers numerous regulatory issues surrounding carbon pipeline development, including the current narrow federal definition of carbon dioxide and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws and regulations. The report serves as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2025 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We present the suite of projected cost reductions collected from the literature as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work. Storage cost projections are $\$$152/kWh, $\$$247/kWh, and $\$$349/kWh in 2035 and $\$$111/kWh, $\$$184/kWh, and $\$$333/kWh in 2050 for the low, mid, and high cases respectively. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Hydrogen Applications for Energy Transition in Port and Airport Operations at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) is focused on achieving meaningful reductions in emissions as part of its environmental sustainability efforts. To reach its 2030 target for reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions and its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, PANYNJ is exploring a range of energy solutions, including hydrogen technologies. This report evaluates the potential role of hydrogen in reducing emissions across key operational areas: vehicles, equipment, stationary power, aviation propulsion, and marine propulsion. It examines hydrogen's technical feasibility, infrastructure needs, and economic implications within PANYNJ's operational context. The findings aim to inform decisions as PANYNJ transitions to cleaner energy sources and reduces environmental impacts. Based on the existing literature and stakeholders' feedback, the report outlines both opportunities and challenges associated with hydrogen integration, providing insights to guide PANYNJ's future sustainability initiatives.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Reevaluation of Radiation-Protection Standards for Workers and the Public Based on Current Scientific Evidence

President Trump’s recent executive orders to “Usher in a Nuclear Renaissance,” coupled with the global pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050, underscore nuclear energy’s importance to national security and economic prosperity. This renewed interest has prompted efforts to spur nuclear-energy deployment, including assessing factors impeding it. One issue that has previously been identified as adding to the cost of nuclear energy is excessively conservative requirements, including those related to radiation protection. This technical review, therefore, examines current radiation-protection standards that were established decades ago when more limited data were available and nuclear-energy expansion was not a national priority. The review focuses on scientific evidence regarding the health effects of ionizing radiation at annual doses of 10,000 mrem or less. The review evaluates epidemiological studies, radiobiological research, and positions of relevant professional organizations to assess whether such doses result in discernable or observable increases in negative health outcomes. The review also surveys the literature related to economic and practical implications of current radiation-protection standards and practices. Based on this assessment, we propose maintaining an annual occupational whole-body dose limit of 5,000 mrem/yr and eliminating all “as low as reasonably achievable” requirements and limits below this threshold. This change could potentially reduce radiation-protection costs by millions of dollars annually for each reactor, as well as decrease the overall costs and correct misconceptions about the risks associated with all nuclear technologies. The evidence further supports future consideration of a 10,000 mrem/yr limit that would maintain appropriate safety margins while further reducing protection costs. Similarly, given the data and that the average annual radiation dose per person in the U.S. is 620 mrem, we believe the public dose limits of 100 mrem/yr are unnecessarily restrictive; increasing to 500 mrem/yr would maintain substantial safety margins—a factor of 10 below the occupational limit—while reducing regulatory burdens and associated bureaucracy. While we acknowledge ongoing scientific debate and encourage continued research on the health effects of ionizing radiation, our review indicates current frameworks are overly conservative. These overly stringent limits not only impose unnecessary economic burdens without corresponding health benefits but also divert safety focus and resources from more important considerations. Although this study was motivated by nuclear-power considerations, reforms to radiation-protection requirements have significant positive implications for other areas, such as nuclear medical applications, environmental remediation, nuclear-waste management and disposal, and industrial applications of nuclear technologies.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

High-Efficiency Recycled Silicon Solar Cell

The project, High-Efficiency Recycled Silicon Solar Cell, addresses the critical challenge of end-of-life (EoL) photovoltaic (PV) waste, which is expected to reach 78 million tons by 2050. Traditional recycling methods for recovering valuable materials like silver from silicon solar cells are inefficient, environmentally harmful, and economically unfeasible. Therefore, presently waste solar cells end up as landfills. This project aimed to develop a green, scalable, laser-based method for silver recovery, avoiding hazardous chemicals and minimizing operational costs. This research contributes to the circular economy in the renewable energy sector by enhancing material recovery from PV waste.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Futures Study

Dramatic improvements to solar technologies and other clean energy technologies have enabled recent rapid growth in deployment and are providing cost-effective options for decarbonizing the U.S. electric grid. The Solar Futures Study explores the role of solar in decarbonizing the grid. Through state-of-the-art modeling, the study envisions deep grid decarbonization by 2035, as driven by a required emissions-reduction target. It also explores how electrification could enable a low-carbon grid to extend decarbonization to the broader energy system (the electric grid plus all direct fuel use in buildings, transportation, and industry) through 2050.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hanover LED Streetlight Conversion

On May 8, 2017, Hanover residents voted overwhelmingly to transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2030 and heating, cooling and transportation by 2050. In so doing, we became the first municipality in the country to make this commitment by popular vote. To accomplish these goal town leaders developed a plan to address first transitioning municipal energy uses to renewable forms of energy, through on-site generation of the municipal electrical load, load reduction through energy efficiency improvements to town facilities and infrastructure. Significant progress has been accomplished in the generation of energy with 90%+ of the 2024 municipal load being offset by generation and through various energy efficiency projects. The utility owned street lighting was identified as a large energy consumer of 165 MWh annually (7% of the annual municipal load) due to old inefficient high-pressure sodium and mercury vapor streetlights with no ability to reduce wattage during periods with low lighting needs. The Hanover LED Streetlight Replacement Project replaced utility owned streetlights with town owned controllable (dimmable and trimmable) LED lights that can be adjusted by location and time of night. Coupled with ownership of the streetlights transfer to the town, the town’s share of the project pay back is 11 months and for the complete project including federal share the payback is approximately 3 years. With the completion of lighting upgrade, the annual streetlighting energy load has dropped by 60% to 67 MWh in the first year of operation (7/1/24 - 6/30/25). This amounts to an approximate $90,000 annual savings or a local 1% tax rate impact. Additionally, over 200,000 pounds of CO2 will be saved annually.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Sustainable Tire Production: Catalytic Upgrading of Ethanol into Butadiene (CRADA 636) Abstract

Bridgestone aims to minimize resource depletion and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by using 100% sustainable materials by 2050. As part of this goal Bridgestone is working to develop a first-of-kind end-of-life recycling process for tire material circularity and the decarbonization of new tire production. Used tires can be gasified to produce intermediate syngas (H 2 + CO) that can be further converted into ethanol using mature technology. The ethanol can then be converted into butadiene, a key precursor of new tires, using patented PNNL technology, enabling circularity for end-of-life tires. Indeed, PNNL has developed a new patented thermocatalytic-based technology for the conversion of ethanol into butadiene that allows for high carbon efficiency and improved catalyst longevity compared to World War II baseline catalyst. The objective here is to continue the development of this processing with the goal of commercial deployment. This includes development of engineered catalysts (e.g., extrudates) and their evaluation under industrially relevant conditions for deployment of a pilot scale. If successful, Bridgestone will subsequently utilize this catalyst technology at pilot and then commercialization scale creating jobs in both construction sector and industry sector in a chosen location that promotes greater diversity, equity, and inclusion through key policies, training, and recruiting practices. Taken together, this work will support the U.S. Department of Energy goal for production of renewable chemicals with > 70% GHG emissions reduction relative to petroleum-derived counterparts and supporting > 1 MMT/ yr CO 2 e emissions reduction by 2030.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway

This analysis takes an integrated, innovative approach to develop plausible, high-ambition pathways through 2035 to inform the third U.S. NDC target setting. This approach combines: (1) an extensive consultation and engagement process with a broad set of federal and subnational stakeholders to build a robust U.S. policy platform; and (2) an open-source, field-leading integrated assessment model focused on the U.S. containing subnational details. The modeling tool assesses existing and possible new policies from both federal and subnational levels to assess the overall emissions reduction potential and the policy pathways to deliver the ambition needed for 2035 and leading on to 2050. In addition, we highlight how different actors can contribute to the needed transition in each sector and showcase successful implementation stories by various subnational actors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report for ARPA-E LOCOMOTIVES Advanced Locomotive Technology and Rail Infrastructure Optimization System (ALTRIOS) Project

The Advanced Locomotive Technology and Rail Infrastructure Optimization System (ALTRIOS) is a unique, fully integrated, open-source software tool used to evaluate strategies for cost-effectively deploying advanced locomotive technologies and associated infrastructure. ALTRIOS simulates freight-demand-driven train scheduling, mainline meet-pass planning, locomotive dynamics, train dynamics, energy conversion efficiencies, and energy storage dynamics of line-haul train operations. Because new locomotives represent a significant long-term capital investment and new technologies must be thoroughly demonstrated before deployment, this tool provides guidance on the risk/reward trade-offs and operation integration of different technology rollout strategies. An open, integrated simulation tool is valuable for identifying future research needs and making decisions on technology development, routes, and train selection. This final report details the ALTRIOS software architecture, major modules and components, and data validation process. It demonstrates the software's utility through a 30-year rollout case study targeting high penetration of advanced powertrain technologies by 2050 for two BNSF Railway routes: loaded taconite ore trains from Hibbing, Minnesota, to Superior, Wisconsin, and mixed-freight trains from Superior to Minneapolis, Minnesota.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Regional Commercialization Plan (Final): Work Products 4.4.b (Regional Commercialization Plan) & 4.3 (Socioeconomic Impacts of CCUS and Workforce Readiness)

Commercialization of carbon capture and storage (CCS) within the SECARB-USA region is scaling up and will continue as governments and private companies expand on current decarbonization efforts. The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) enhanced 45Q tax credits beyond the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act levels by incentivizing previously uneconomic projects to develop CCS plans and infrastructure. Additionally, the continued interest and support for CCS mitigates the relative risk of commercial-scale projects that are seeking long-term viability to develop capture facilities to accommodate their emissions reduction goals. This multifaceted Commercialization Plan provides an overview of the current status and potential for CCS in the Southeast and the pathways to achieve emissions reduction goals in the region by 2050. Specifically, the study addresses: • The current status of CCS activities in the SECARB region, • Assessment of buildout pathways for CCS projects and carbon transport infrastructure development opportunities, • Estimation of CCS job creation and economic impacts, and • The social justice considerations and public benefits associated with CCS activities in the SECARB-USA region.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis Frameworks for Aviation Applications

While aircraft account for less than 10% of United States (U.S.) transportation energy consumption, it is the only mode expected to see sustained growth in energy demand through 2050. Currently, commercially available aircraft rely heavily on either jet fuel or leaded aviation gasoline. Over the past few decades, concerns have grown over the contributing effects that greenhouse gases, which are produced from fossil fuels, have on the environment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

EV Stock and Load Forecasting for HECO [Slides]

This presentation covers the work completed for the HECO Forecasting Department for the Electric Vehicle Stock and Load Forecast for Integrated Grid Planning project. This project uses a suite of detailed analytical tools developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies, including TEMPO and EVI-Pro, to develop future scenarios to 2050 of county-level electric vehicle adoption and associated annual hourly charging load profiles for the state of Hawaii.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗

Clean Energy Roadmap: From Reconstruction to Decarbonization in Ukraine

The Net Zero World Initiative, committed to accelerating decarbonization and fostering more inclusive, equitable, and resilient energy systems, is pleased to support the Government of Ukraine in developing decarbonization pathways for its energy sector. In a collaborative effort to promote the resilience and sustainability of the energy system as part of the country’s reconstruction, the leading US Department of Energy’s national laboratories and distinguished Ukrainian research institutes and think tanks worked on this study. Together, we have developed scenarios for achieving net zero emissions in the energy sector, which are in line with the goals set out in the Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2050. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine report will present this report at the Conference of the Parties (COP28).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗