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At least 577 records · Page 32

Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate

Abstract Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the twenty-first century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here, we show that changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the intermodel variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the twenty-first century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model, version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.

Stuivenvolt-Allen, Jacob [Yale University, New Hav↗

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Review of Feasibility and Cost Drivers for Floating Offshore Wind Energy in Washington State

The state of Washington must double its clean electricity supply by 2050 to meet its clean energy goals and comply with the Clean Energy Transformation Act. With more than 6.6 GW of technical resource potential in federal waters where Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has leasing authority, offshore wind energy could play an important role in diversifying Washington State's clean energy mix, reducing dependence on out-of-state energy sources, and helping meet state decarbonization goals. Decision makers need technology-specific information to assist with long-term energy system planning, so the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provide an overview of several drivers of offshore wind energy feasibility and cost in Washington. This study summarizes some of the existing engagement efforts and perspectives on offshore wind energy in the region and quantifies the offshore wind resources in Washington as well as technology costs and performance of potential projects. Furthermore, this report reviews existing grid and port infrastructure and discusses infrastructure needs along with information gaps. This study also explores opportunities and barriers to Washington entities supporting the broader floating offshore wind energy supply chain along the U.S. West Coast. Note that this study is not part of a formal project planning process or official engagement effort, nor does it assess environmental or economic impacts from potential offshore wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Numerical simulation of warm fog and its application to warm fog prediction and modification

The considered theoretical model describes the evolution of potential temperature, water vapor content, liquid water content, and horizontal and vertical winds as determined by the processes of vertical turbulent transfer and horizontal advection for momentum, energy, and moisture, as well as radiation cooling, growth of water droplets based on microphysical processes, and drop sedimentation. The mathematical model is two-dimensional in the X-Z plane. The diffusivity coefficient is the same for liquid water droplets as for vapor. The fundamental equations governing the macrophysical processes of the evolution of wind components, water vapor content, liquid water content, and potential temperature under the influences of vertical turbulent diffusion transfer, turbulent momentum transfer, and turbulent energy transfer are expressed by three sets of conservation equations.

Hung, R. J.↗

Trajectories and energy transfer of saltating particles onto rock surfaces : application to abrasion and ventifact formation on Earth and Mars

The interaction between saltating sand grains and rock surfaces is assessed to gauge relative abrasion potential as a function of rock shape, wind speed, grain size, and planetary environment. Many kinetic energy height profiles for impacts exhibit a distinctive increase, or kink, a few centimeters above the surface, consistent with previous field, wind tunnel, and theoretical investigations. The height of the kink observed in natural and wind tunnel settings is greater than predictions by a factor of 2 or more, probably because of enhanced bouncing off hard ground surfaces. Rebounded grains increase the effective flux and relative kinetic energy for intermediate slope angles. Whether abrasion occurs, as opposed to simple grain impact with little or no mass lost from the rock, depends on whether the grain kinetic energy (EG) exceeds a critical value (EC), as well as the flux of grains with energies above EC. The magnitude of abrasion and the shape change of the rock over time depends on this flux and the value of EG > EC. Considering the potential range of particle sizes and wind speeds, the predicted kinetic energies of saltating sand hitting rocks overlap on Earth and Mars. However, when limited to the most likely grain sizes and threshold conditions, our results agree with previous work and show that kinetic energies are about an order of magnitude greater on Mars.

planet sufraces↗

Minimum testing of the space shuttle orbiter for stability and control derivatives

A unique approach has been developed for stability and control derivative testing of the Space Shuttle orbiter during entry. Shuttle Program requirements have necessitated a minimum of testing. Therefore, flight tests concentrate on potential control problem areas predicted from wind tunnel data as well as anomalies discovered during flight testing. The object is to use the test data to remove center of gravity (cg), angle of attack, and elevon placards which are a function of these potential control problems. To ensure successful aerodynamic extraction from a minimum of testing, the following special measures have been taken. Exact maneuvers are designed preflight on Shuttle simulators. These maneuvers are duplicated and implemented during the flight by onboard software. An onboard instrumentation system was designed especially for aerodynamic parameter identification. State-of-the-art techniques are used in extracting aerodynamics.

Cooke, D. R.↗

The Potential and Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removal Using Direct Air Capture with Land-Based Wind and Utility-Scale Photovoltaics

The rapid deployment of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is critical for achieving emission targets, necessitating precise evaluation of the scale and cost of carbon dioxide removal. This study examines the availability of land, electricity generation, and geologic CO 2 storage within the United States, estimating a technical potential for low-temperature, adsorbent-based DACS to remove approximately 9 gigatonnes of CO 2 annually. By 2050, a substantial portion of this removal could be achieved at net-removed costs below $\$$300/tonneCO 2 , though costs are highly variable depending on factors such as facility scale, construction expenses, climate-dependent productivity and heating efficiency, and geologic storage conditions. In the short term, DACS deployment will help identify key research priorities for advancing technology and reducing removal costs. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for scientifically robust and standardized frameworks for monitoring, reporting, and verifying DACS performance across both established and emerging technologies and energy sources.

Carbon capture↗

Kinetic and Potential Sputtering Enhancements of Lunar Regolith Erosion: The Contribution of the Heavy Multicharged (Minority) Solar Wind Constituents

We report preliminary results for H+, Ar+1, Ar+6 and Ar+9 ion sputtering of JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant at solar wind velocities, obtain ed at the ORNL Multicharged Ion Research Facility using quadrupole ma ss spectrometry. The multi-charged Ar ions were used as proxies for i ntermediate mass solar wind multicharged ions. Prior to the Ar beam e xposures, the sample was exposed to high fluence H+ irradiation to si mulate H-loading due to the dominant solar wind constituent. A x80 en hancement of oxygen sputtering by Ar+ over same velocity H+ was measu red and an additional x2 increase for Ar+9 over same velocity Ar+ was demonstrated, giving clear evidence of the importance of potential s puttering by multicharged ions. This enhancement was observed to pers ist to the maximum fluences investigated (approx 10(exp 16)/sq cm). As discussed in a companion abstract by N. Barghouty, such persistent s puttering enhancement has significant implications on weathering and aging of lunar regolith. In addition, XPS measurements showed strong evidence of Fe reduction for those target areas that had been exposed to high fluence Ar+ and Ar+8 beams. Preferential oxidation of the Fe -reduced beam-exposed regions during transfer to the XPS system led t o enhanced O concentrations in those regions as well. On the basis of these very promising preliminary results, a NASA-LASER project on mo re extensive measurements was recently selected for funding. The prop osal expands the collaboration with NASA-MSFC for the simulation effort, and adds a new collaboration with NASA-GSFC for lunar mission-rele vant measurements.

Meyer, F. W.↗

An atlas of objectively analyzed atmospheric cross sections, 1973-1980

Atmospheric variability over time scales greater than one month is conceptually simplified and readily recognized from vertical cross-sections of zonal-monthly mean data. The reduction to two dimensions, latitude and height, explicitly eliminates all zonal waves but implicity retains their effects on the thermal-pressure fields and the dynamically related zonal wind fields. This atlas contains 96 examples, spanning all latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres and two decades in pressure, from 1000 to 10 mb. Four analyses, representing each month from January 1973 through December 1980, depicts the potential virtual temperature, the observed zonal wind velocity, the virtual temperature and the geostrophic zonal wind velocity. Each variable is contoured at a close interval to facilitate visual estimates of stability and vorticity via their gradients. The analyses are generated and contoured by objective computer methods from just one data source: in situ measurements from the conventional rawin-radiosonde system. Although the analyses are independently made at constant pressure levels (the mandatory levels) the cross-sections are drawn with geopotential height as the ordinate. With this ordinate one can observe the seasonal expansion and contraction of the earth's atmosphere, especially that of the polar stratosphere. Also, the quasi-biannual cycle can be identified and studied directly from successive cross-sections.

Goodman, J.↗

Control of Floating Offshore Wind Energy Systems: An Introduction to the Special Issue

As the global demand for renewable energy sources intensifies amid the urgent fight against climate change [1] , offshore wind energy has emerged as a promising and crucial component of the sustainable energy portfolio. Fixed-bottom offshore wind farms have already demonstrated their potential; however, they are limited to relatively shallow waters, typically no deeper than 60 m.

climate change↗

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ECMWF/NMC/GLAS Joint Simulation Study

Simulation experiments to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction are conducted. Instruments to be simulated include current conventional and satellite observing systems, advanced passive sounders such as the AMTS and AMSU, and active LIDAR systems for the measurement of wind, temperature and humidity profiles. The potential impact of individual observing systems, the effect of coverage, resolution, accuracy and assimilation methodology are studied.

Atlas, R.↗

Simulation of Helium-3 Extraction from Lunar Ilmenite

Knowledge of the trapping mechanisms and diffusion characteristics of solar-wind implanted isotopes in the minerals of the lunar regolith will enable the optimization of the processes to extract solar wind gases from regolith particles. Extraction parameters include the temperature and duration of extraction, particle size, and gas yield. Diffusion data will increase the efficiency and profitability of future mining ventures. This data will also assist in optimizing the evaluations of various potential mining sites based on remote sensing data. For instance, if magnesian ilmenite (Mg,Fel.,Ti03) is found to retain He better than stoichiometric ilmenite (FeTi03), remote sensing data for Mg could be considered in addition to Ti and maturity data. The context of the currently discussed work is the mining of helium-3 for potential use as a fuel for fusion energy generation. However, the potential resources deposited by the solar wind include hydrogen (and derived water), helium-4, nitrogen and carbon. Implantation experiments such as those performed for helium isotopes in ilmenite are important for the optimized extraction of these additional resources. These experiments can easily be reproduced for most elements or isotopes of interest.

Kuhlman, K. R.↗

Dynamic PIC-simulations of charging phenomena related to the ICE-spacecraft in both cometary and solar wind environments

Spacecraft charging phenomena in the cometary environment of Giacobini-Zinner are less dramatic than expected. The potential of the ICE-probe is less than +1V in the vicinity of Giacobini-Zinner, while the potential may rise up to +6V in the solar wind environment. The paper presents results of PIC simulations that show the dominant influence of photoemission (photoelectrons or impact-induced electrons) in the presence of the solar wind core and halo electrons. Secondary electrons are also important in the cometary environment to explain positive potentials.

Thiemann, H.↗

Airloads and Wake Geometry Calculations for an Isolated Tiltrotor Model in a Wind Tunnel

Th tiltrotor aircraft configuration has the potential to revolutionize air transportation by providing an economical combination of vertical take-off and landing capability with efficient, high-speed cruise flight. To achieve this potential it is necessary to have validated analytical tools that will support future tiltrotor aircraft development. These analytical tools must calculate tiltrotor aeromechanical behavior, including performance, structural loads, vibration, and aeroelastic stability, with an accuracy established by correlation with measured tiltrotor data. For many years such correlation has been performed for helicopter rotors (rotors designed for edgewise flight), but correlation activities for tiltrotors have been limited, in part by the absence of appropriate measured data. The recent test of the Tilt Rotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) with a single, U4-scale V-22 rotor in the German-Dutch Wind Tunnel (DNW) now provides an extensive set of aeroacoustic, performance, and structural loads data. This paper will present calculations of airloads, wake geometry, and performance, including correlation with TRAM DNW measurements. The calculations were obtained using CAMRAD II, which is a modern rotorcraft comprehensive analysis, with advanced models intended for application to tiltrotor aircraft as well as helicopters. Comprehensive analyses have received extensive correlation with performance and loads measurements on helicopter rotors. The proposed paper is part of an initial effort to perform an equally extensive correlation with tiltrotor data. The correlation will establish the level of predictive capability achievable with current technology; identify the limitations of the current aerodynamic, wake, and structural models of tiltrotors; and lead to recommendations for research to extend tiltrotor aeromechanics analysis capability. The purpose of the Tilt Rotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) experimental project is to provide data necessary to validate tiltrotor performance and aeroacoustic prediction methodologies and to investigate and demonstrate advanced civil tiltrotor technologies. The TRAM project is a key part of the NASA Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor (SHCT) project. The SHCT project is an element of the Aviation Systems Capacity Initiative within NASA. In April-May 1998 the TRAM was tested in the isolated rotor configuration at the Large Low-speed Facility of the German-Dutch Wind Tunnels (DNW). A preparatory test was conducted in December 1997. These tests were the first comprehensive aeroacoustic test for a tiltrotor, including not only noise and performance data, but airload and wake measurements as well. The TRAM can also be tested in a fill-span configuration, incorporating both rotors Lnd a fuselage model. The wind tunnel installation of the TRAM isolated rotor is shown. The rotor tested in the DNW was a 1/4-scale (9.5 ft diameter) model of the right-hand V-22 proprotor. The rotor and nacelle assembly was attached to an acoustically-treated, isolated rotor test stand through a mechanical pivot (the nacelle conversion axis). The TRAM was analyzed using the rotorcraft comprehensive analysis CAMRAD II. CAMRAD II is an aeromechanical analysis of helicopters and rotorcraft that incorporates a combination of advanced technologies, including multibody dynamics, nonlinear finite elements, and rotorcraft aerodynamics. The trim task finds the equilibrium solution (constant or periodic) for a steady state operating condition, in this case a rotor operating in a wind tunnel. For wind tunnel operation, the thrust and flapping are trimmed to target values. The aerodynamic model includes a wake analysis to calculate the rotor nonuniform induced-velocities, using a free wake geometry. The paper will present the results of CAMRAD II calculations compared to the TRAM DNW measurements for hover performance, helicopter mode performance, and helicopter mode airloads. An example of the hover performance results, comparing both mearements and calculations for the JVX (large scale) and TRAM (small scale) rotors, is shown. An example of the helicopter mode performance, showing the influence of the aerodynamic model (particularly the stall delay model) on the calculated power, induced power, and profile power is also shown. An example of the helicopter mode airloads, showing the influence of various wake and aerodynamic models on the calculations, is shown. Good correlation with measured airloads is obtained using the multiple-trailer wake model. The paper will present additional results, and describe and discuss the aerodynamic behavior in detail.

Johnson, Wayne↗

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗