Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “solar prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Charge exchange in solar wind-cometary interactions

A simple model of a cometary spherically symmetrical atmosphere and ionosphere is considered. An analytic solution of the governing equations describing the radial distribution of the neutral and ion densities is found. The new solution is compared to the well-known solution of the equations containing only ionization terms. Neglecting recombination causes a significant overestimate of the ion density in the vicinity of the comet. An axisymmetric model of the solar wind-cometary interaction is considered, taking into account the loss of solar wind ions due to charge exchange. The calculations predict that for active comets, solar wind absorption due to charge exchange becomes important at a few thousand kilometers from the nucleus, and a surface separating the shocked solar wind from the cometary ionosphere develops in this region. These calculations are in reasonable agreement with the few observations available for the ionopause location at comets.

Gombosi, T. I.↗
NASA NTRS1979

HEAP: Heat Energy Analysis Program, a computer model simulating solar receivers

A computer program which can distinguish between different receiver designs, and predict transient performance under variable solar flux, or ambient temperatures, etc. has a basic structure that fits a general heat transfer problem, but with specific features that are custom-made for solar receivers. The code is written in MBASIC computer language. The methodology followed in solving the heat transfer problem is explained. A program flow chart, an explanation of input and output tables, and an example of the simulation of a cavity-type solar receiver are included.

Lansing, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Effects of the solar wind conditions on the global magnetospheric configuration as deduced from data-based field models

The results of data based modeling of the magnetospheric configuration and its response to changes in the solar wind dynamical pressure and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are described. Previous models did not have a pre-defined magnetopause and were calibrated by the Kp index, and therefore did not correctly model the solar wind effects. Models are presented which include the effects of the solar wind-controlled magnetopause, the region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents, and the interconnection of the magnetospheric and solar wind fields at the boundary. They predict the most significant effects of solar wind variation on the global magnetospheric structure. On the dayside, the region 1 Birkeland currents cause major changes of the magnetic configuration as the IMF turns southward. The tail current intensity is controlled mainly by the pressure of the solar wind, although the influence of the southward IMF is clearly seen. The effects of the IMF-induced interconnection field were found to be significant.

Tsyganenko, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Modeling the Earth's radiation belts. A review of quantitative data based electron and proton models

The evolution of quantitative models of the trapped radiation belts is traced to show how the knowledge of the various features has developed, or been clarified, by performing the required analysis and synthesis. The Starfish electron injection introduced problems in the time behavior of the inner zone, but this residue decayed away, and a good model of this depletion now exists. The outer zone electrons were handled statistically by a log normal distribution such that above 5 Earth radii there are no long term changes over the solar cycle. The transition region between the two zones presents the most difficulty, therefore the behavior of individual substorms as well as long term changes must be studied. The latest corrections to the electron environment based on new data are outlined. The proton models have evolved to the point where the solar cycle effect at low altitudes is included. Trends for new models are discussed; the feasibility of predicting substorm injections and solar wind high-speed streams make the modeling of individual events a topical activity.

Vette, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Enhanced Water Vapor Absorption within Tropospheric Clouds: A Partial Explanation for Anomalous Absorption

Comparisons between solar flux measurements and predictions obtained from theoretical radiative transfer models indicate that most of these models underestimate the globally averaged solar energy absorbed by cloudy atmospheres by up to 25Wm&sup-2;.The origin of this anomalous absorption has not yet been established, but it has been attributed to a variety of sources including oversimplified or missing physical processes in the existing models, uncertainties in the input data, and even measurement errors. We used a sophisticated atmospheric radiative transfer model to provide improved constraints on the physical processes that contribute to the absorption of solar radiation by Earth's atmosphere. The results are described herein.

solar flux measurement water vapor absorption atmo↗
NASA NTRS1990

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.

Dreher, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coupling of the solar wind to measures of magnetic activity

Linear prediction filtering was used to generate empirical response functions relating the solar wind electric field to the magnetic indices, AL, AU, Dst and ASYM. The empirical response functions were convolved with solar wind observations obtained during the International Magnetospheric Study to predict the indices. The predictions are compared with the observed indices during two, 3-day intervals. Differences between the observed and predicted indices are discussed in terms of the linear assumption and in terms of physical processes other than direct solar wind-magnetosphere interaction.

Mcpherron, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop a physics based predictive toolset RISCS to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 AU; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements.

Zank, G. P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Contribution of Solar Brightening to the US Maize Yield Trend

Predictions of crop yield under future climate change are predicated on historical yield trends1,2,3, hence it is important to identify the contributors to historical yield gains and their potential for continued increase. The large gains in maize yield in the US Corn Belt have been attributed to agricultural technologies4, ignoring the potential contribution of solar brightening (decadal-scale increases in incident solar radiation) reported for much of the globe since the mid-1980s. In this study, using a novel biophysical/empirical approach, we show that solar brightening contributed approximately 27% of the US Corn Belt yield trend from 1984 to 2013. Accumulated solar brightening during the post-flowering phase of development of maize increased during the past three decades, causing the yield increase that previously had been attributed to agricultural technology. Several factors are believed to cause solar brightening, but their relative importance and future outlook are unknown, making prediction of continued solar brightening and its future contribution to yield gain uncertain. Consequently, results of this study call into question the implicit use of historical yield trends in predicting yields under future climate change scenarios.

Matthijs Tollenaar↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solar wind heat flow

The ability of a theoretical solar wind model to predict the energy flux density due to heat conduction was investigated. In order to demonstrate this capability, the analysis used simultaneous data from the electron plasma experiment of Ogilvie and Lind, and the vector magnetic field data of Heppner and Sugiura on OGO-5. On the strength of two independent, different, and consistent experimental determinations of the conduction of heat flux by electrons at 149.6 gigameters(1 AU), it was determined that the models for the solar wind must be able to predict a value for the heat conduction in the range 0.007 to 0.008 in order to be in agreement with the observations.

Scudder, J.↗