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The potential of carbon markets to accelerate green infrastructure based water quality trading

Green infrastructure solutions can improve in-stream water quality in lieu of building electricity-consuming gray infrastructure. Permitted under the United States Clean Water Act, these programs allow regulated utilities to trade point-source water quality obligations with non-point source mitigation efforts in the watershed. Carbon financing can provide an incentive for water quality trading. Here we combine data on impaired waters, treatment technologies, and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the Contiguous United States, and compare traditional treatment technologies to alternative green infrastructure. We find green infrastructure could save $\$15.6$ billion dollars, 21.2 terawatt-hours of electricity, and 29.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year while sequestering over 4.2 million tonnes CO2e per year over a 40 year time horizon. Green infrastructure solutions may have the potential to generate $\$679$ million annually in carbon credit revenue (at $\$20$ per credit), which represents a unique opportunity to help accelerate water quality trading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multimetallic Layered Composites (MMLCs) for Rapid, Economical Advanced Reactor Deployment (Final Report)

This project focused on the development of multi-metallic layered composites (MMLCs) for advanced fission reactor technologies. There are many instances where one alloy or material simply cannot meet all the demands thrown at it by a reactor system, or cannot allow it to perform as strongly as one would like. Instead of focusing all our effort on developing one perfect alloy, we seek to leverage the design principle of “separation of functionality,” used in many other arenas in design, to boost performance beyond single alloys alone. One illustrative example shows the power of this approach for molten salt-cooled reactors: A three meter tall, three meter diameter reactor vessel made of Incoloy 800 was quoted at $\$$500k in 2018. A Hastelloy N vessel was quoted at $\$$5M. An MMLC vessel, in which a layer of Hastelloy N would be weld-overlaid onto Incoloy 800, was quoted at $\$$700k, and it would achieve the same performance. The potential economic gains of leveraging this approach are therefore substantial. At a minimum, each MMLC would contain one core structural layer and one coolant-facing corrosion-resistant layer. Sometimes, MMLCs required buffer layers, as the structural and corrosion-resistant layers were metallurgically incompatible. In other words, they didn’t always play nice, thus separating layers compatible with both functioned as intermediaries to keep the composite together. However, in doing so we inevitably produce new interfaces, where new issues can arise. Therefore, this project focused on what happens at these interfaces from a combination of high temperatures, irradiation, corrosion, and time. After all, a reactor makes money when it is operating, and outages of any kind erode its economic viability. First, we set out to experimentally prove that MMLCs for at least two advanced reactor systems can be made, today, in US domestic facilities. In this respect we were successful – one MMLC (a Ni-201/Incoloy 800H composite) was successfully made and drawn into two-inch coolant piping. Others were attempted, though new issues relating to cracking in vanadium layers for one and radiation damage performance of the corrosion-resistant layer in another prevented us from moving further in those specific arenas – these are engineering problems which deserve continued focus after this project. Additional experimental work focused on long-term corrosion testing of the outermost layers of the salt-cooled and liquid lead-cooled MMLC concepts, which would then be fed into predictions of how long the MMLCs could last. Next, computational (thermodynamics and atomistic) simulation studies studied how much we expect the interfaces to “blend,” due to the mixing action of neutron irradiation. This eats into both the margin for the structural layer of each MMLC, as dilution from the corrosion-resistant layer into the structural layer would decrease the total load-bearing capacity of an MMLC of finite size. On the other hand, dilution of the corrosion-resistant layer into the structural layer further reduced the margin of corrodible material, reducing the lifetime of the MMLC or necessitating extra thickness to be imparted to the MMLC to meet its functional requirements. Work here focused on irradiation-induced segregation to predict new phases which may embrittle the MMLCs, as well as quantifying irradiation-induced mixing at each interface. The results showed that mixing is expected, but it is both steady and therefore predictable, and not lifetime-limiting for most MMLC concepts – it simply has to be accounted for in calculations of reactor performance when utilizing an MMLC. Then, full-core simulations using the experimentally-derived corrosion data, the computationally discovered irradiation-induced mixing data (partially validated by experiment), and existing, benchmarked core designs for large and small sized reactor concepts (one salt-cooled, one lead-cooled) were conducted to quantify any expansion of reactor operating envelopes achieved by utilizing these MMLCs. This new framework, called REX (Reactor Envelope Expansion), incorporates a combination of core neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and the material performance data derived from this project to see how using an MMLC expands advanced fission reactor operating envelopes. It was discovered that in some cases, MMLC utilization does indeed increase the maximum operating temperatures and cycle lengths of reactor concepts, while in other cases it does not. Finally, our tech-to-market (T2M) strategy was not necessarily to create specific embodiments of MMLCs for immediate sale (because getting into the nuclear market is incredibly slow and laden with regulation, this is a long-term goal), but rather immediate stimulation of US industry using the design approach of MMLCs derived from this project. In this respect we were successful, as one of the PhD students funded on this project co-founded Allium Engineering, Inc., which created a stainless steel / low-alloy steel MMLC to function as chloride corrosion-resistant rebar for embedding into concrete structures. Allium Engineering continues to be successful, having recently opened their first factory as of this writing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Changes in When and Where People are Spending Time in Response to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant change in driving behavior as people respond to the new environment. However, existing methods for analyzing driver behavior such as travel surveys and travel demand models are not suited for incorporating abrupt environmental disruptions. To address this, we analyze a set of high-resolution trip data and introduce two new metrics for quantifying driving behavioral shifts as a function of time, allowing us to compare the time periods before and after pandemic began. We apply these metrics to the Denver, Colorado metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to demonstrate the utility of the metrics. Then, we present a case study for comparing two distinct MSAs, Louisville, Kentucky; and Des Moines, Iowa which exhibit significant differences in the makeup of their labor markets. The results indicate that although the regions of study exhibit certain unique driving behavioral shifts, emerging trends can be seen when comparing between seemingly distinct regions. For instance, drivers in all three MSAs are generally shown to have spent more time at residential locations and less time in workplaces in the time period after the pandemic started. In addition, workplaces that may be incompatible with remote working, such as hospitals and certain retail locations, generally retained much of their pre-pandemic travel activity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Chiller Replacement

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at a subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - chiller replacement - and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock (TM) data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multifamily Building Stock Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00701

U.S. multifamily buildings house 35 million households, consuming 4 quads of source energy and spending $48 billion on utility bills every year. Almost all of these households live in urban areas, where cities are taking the lead on setting aggressive energy goals. Cities currently do not have the data and tools necessary to identify and target opportunities to save energy in their building stock. Building on the open-source, OpenStudio-based ResStock platform, this project will extend the publicly-available ResStock modeling capabilities to the multifamily sector, enabling Radiant Labs, and others, to partner with cities to market and strategically deploy cost-effective, energy efficiency (EE) upgrades directly to high-priority households. Radiant Labs has been successful in using ResStock's single-family capabilities to provide value to the City of Boulder, Colorado. However, lack of multifamily capabilities in ResStock is a roadblock for Radiant Labs working with New York City, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and other cities that have expressed significant interest in working with them. In addition, other cities, companies, and utilities can use these open-source capabilities to grow their EE portfolios, thereby multiplying the impact of this project. This work also enables national-scale analysis of EE potential in multifamily buildings, which is of strong interest to a variety of stakeholders, including the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA), DOE Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Virtual Power Plant Profiles and Inventory

Increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), growing quantities of renewable energy on the grid, and load growth from buildings, industry, and data centers are driving the need for increased demand flexibility and solutions to reliably and cost-effectively balance electricity supply and demand. In order to deploy DERs on a similar scale as conventional supply-side resources, utilities and state decision-makers are exploring a range of programmatic approaches and market designs, including Virtual Power Plants (VPP). Based on interviews with more than twenty subject matter experts on VPPs, the Insights into Scaling Virtual Power Plants report and appendix outlines actions that utilities and regulators can take to expand VPPs, organized around successful VPP designs, deployment, and operation. The companion report, Virtual Power Plant Profiles and Inventory describes three conceptual profiles that can be used as a starting point to facilitate clear discussions among regulators, utilities, solution providers, and stakeholders about various VPP strategies. It also includes details on more than 790 demand response programs and net energy metering solar plus battery programs, and 180 VPP programs. The Inventory is provided below as a separate file.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transforming Energy Through Sustainable Mobility: Expanding Low-Carbon Transportation R&D Solutions

As the nation's premier laboratory for cutting-edge transportation decarbonization research and development solutions, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) pioneers the creation and deployment of sustainable mobility technologies and strategies, with a focus on slashing transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions and combatting climate change. Trucks, planes, cargo ships, and other difficult-to-decarbonize vehicles are part of this essential transition for the transportation sector, which is currently the nation's largest source of the greenhouse gas emissions. NREL provides the scientific building blocks needed to spur innovation through multifaceted analysis, research, and engineering. This work acts as a catalyst to help industry bring affordable, high-performance, energy-efficient, and low-emission modes of transport and related infrastructure to market sooner. Our researchers collaborate closely with academic, government, and industry partners to design better batteries, drivetrains, and engines. They develop technologies for high-power charging, thermal management, energy storage, and power electronics. They are also reimagining fuels and combustion while creating sustainable lightweight materials. Unbiased expert guidance - backed by credible data and analysis, tools, and scientific rigor - empowers partners to make informed decisions about sustainable transportation. NREL recognizes that communities with limited mobility options face reduced access to employment opportunities, health care, and education, lowering overall quality of life. Alongside partners, NREL experts are creating transportation solutions that meet community-identified needs and increase mobility equity in historically underserved and overburdened communities. Rather than providing a one-size-fits-all solution, we take an interdisciplinary approach to mobility equity that considers the needs and challenges of diverse groups, maximizing benefits at the individual, community, and societal levels.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Design of a supervisory control system for autonomous operation of advanced reactors

Advanced reactors to be deployed in the coming decades will face deregulated energy markets, and may adopt flexible operation to boost profitability. To aid in the transition from baseload to flexible operation paradigm, autonomous operation is sought. This work focuses on the control aspect of autonomous operation. Specifically, a hierarchical control system is designed to support constraint enforcement during routine operational transients. Within the system, data-driven modeling, physics-based state observation, and classical control algorithms are integrated to provide an adaptable and robust solution. A 320 MW Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Pebble-bed Reactor is the design basis for demonstrating the proposed control system. The hierarchical control system consists of a supervisory layer and low-level layer. The supervisory layer receives requests to change the system's operating conditions (e.g., the current reactor power to meet a load -follow), and accepts or rejects them based on constraints that have been assigned. Constraints are issued to keep the plant within an optimal operating region. The low-level layer interfaces with the actuators of the system to fulfill requested changes, while maintaining tracking and regulation duties. Further, to accept requests at the supervisory layer, the Reference Governor algorithm was adopted. To model the dynamics of the reactor, a system identification algorithm, Dynamic Mode Decomposition, was utilized. To estimate the evolution of process variables that cannot be directly measured (e.g., the propagation of delayed neutron precursors), the Unscented Kalman Filter, incorporating a nonlinear model of nuclear dynamics, was adopted. The composition of these algorithms led to a numerical demonstration of constraint enforcement during a 40% power drop transient (at a rate of 5 %/min). Uncontrolled secondary-side temperatures were successfully constrained. Adaptability of the proposed system was demonstrated by modifying the constraint values, and enforcing them during the transient. Robustness was also demonstrated by enforcing constraints under noisy environments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Home charging for all: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment of multi-unit dwelling electric vehicle charging hubs

Ubiquitous electric vehicle adoption can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but will require equitable home charging infrastructure for all residences. Unlike single-family homes, Multi-Unit Dwellings (MUD) currently lack market share and access to nearby charging infrastructure partly due to expensive capital costs for reluctant residential property-owners. Further, this work evaluates the levelized cost of charging (LCOC) for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at MUD community charging hubs through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) that leverages real-world charging data and costs. Three different MUD charging types are investigated for a baseline and optimistic case: 1.9-kW Level 1 (L1), 6.6-kW Level 2 (L2), and 50-kW Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations under three different ownership models: resident, utility, and private company. Results demonstrate L1 and L2 chargers to be less expensive than the gasoline equivalent across the United States. Further, utility and private company ownership models, which avoid initial costs for residential property owners, result in a large LCOC premium for L1 and moderate LCOC premium for L2 relative to the resident ownership model. In contrast, DCFC is shown to be expensive for baseline scenarios but economical for optimistic scenarios especially under private company ownership. This work also performs a cradle to grave (C2G) life cycle assessment (LCA) of an average passenger BEV and gasoline conventional vehicle (CV) using yearly (grid mix & vehicle parameters), hourly (grid mix), and state-level (grid mix) resolution. Results show BEVs to have lower GHG emissions (-86% to-10%) than gasoline CVs in the contiguous U.S. Next, the system boundary of the TEA is extended to the total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEVs. The TCO is then coupled with the C2G GHG emissions to calculate the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Ultimately, the cost of GHG emissions reduction from MUD BEVs relative to gasoline CVs is shown to be negative for every scenario except baseline DCFC, meaning MUD BEV charging infrastructure can be a cost-effective endeavor to reduce GHG emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Understanding Your Utility Bills: Natural Gas

As a fossil fuel NG is a colorless and odorless gas in its natural state and is one of the cleanest burning hydrocarbons. The factors that contribute to the popularity of natural gas in the US manufacturing sector include ease of availability, clean burning properties, market deregulation, and increased domestic production. Analyzing natural gas (NG) bills can sometimes pose unique problems. Learning to read your utility bills and understand why your utility charges different fees is critical in maximizing your cost savings through energy efficiency. A key to creating a baseline is collecting and analyzing natural gas utility data. Historical data from NG bills can identify trends and help to find the baseline usage for a manufacturing operation. This guide intends to help Better Plant Program partners in understanding natural gas bills and analyzing usage to reduce costs. The guide focuses on natural gas production and transportation, understanding key charges on bills, different rate structures, and saving opportunities. A fictitious worked out example in the final section demonstrates how readers could go about analyzing natural gas bills.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Siting Analysis of a Solar-Nuclear-Desalination Integrated Energy System

Nuclear power is typically deployed as a baseload generator. Increased penetration of variable renewables motivates combining nuclear and renewable technologies into Integrated Energy Systems (IES) to improve dispatchability, component synergies and, through cogeneration, address multiple markets. However, combining multiple energy resources heavily depends on the proper selection of each system’s location and design limitations. In this paper, co-siting options for IES that couple nuclear and concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal desalination are investigated. A comprehensive siting analysis is performed that utilizes global information survey data to determine possible co-siting options for nuclear and solar thermal generation in the United States. Viable co-siting options are distributed across the Southwestern U.S., with the greatest concentration of siting options in the southern Great Plains, although siting with higher solar direct normal irradiance is possible in other states such as Arizona and New Mexico. Brackish water desalination is also attractive across the southwest U.S. due to high water stress, but for brackish water desalination reverse osmosis (an electricity driven process) is most cost- and energy-efficient, which does not require co-siting with the thermal generator. The most attractive state for nuclear and thermal desalination (which is more attractive when using seawater) is Texas, although other areas may become attractive as water stress increases over the coming decades. Co-siting of all CSP and thermal desalination is challenging as attractive CSP sites are not coastal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

State and Regional Variation in Prescription- and Payment-Related Promoters of Adherence to Blood Pressure Medication

Introduction: Medication adherence can improve hypertension management. How blood pressure medications are prescribed and purchased can promote or impede adherence. Methods: We used comprehensive dispensing data on prescription blood pressure medication from Symphony Health’s 2017 Integrated Dataverse to assess how prescription- and payment-related factors that promote medication adherence (ie, fixed-dose combinations, generic formulations, mail order, low-cost or no-copay medications) vary across US states and census regions and across the market segments (grouped by patient age, prescriber type, and payer type) responsible for the greatest number of blood pressure medication fills. Results: In 2017, 706.5 million prescriptions for blood pressure medication were filled, accounting for $29.0 billion in total spending (17.0% incurred by patients). As a proportion of all fills, factors that promoted adherence varied by state: fixed-dose combinations (from 5.8% in Maine to 17.9% in Mississippi); generic formulations (from 95.2% in New Jersey to 98.4% in Minnesota); mail order (from 4.7% in Rhode Island to 14.5% in Delaware); and lower or no copayment (from 56.6% in Utah to 72.8% in California). Furthermore, mean days’ supply per fill (from 43.1 in Arkansas to 63.8 in Maine) and patient spending per therapy year (from $38 in Hawaii to $76 in Georgia) varied. Concentration of adherence factors differed by market segment. Patients aged 18 to 64 with a primary care physician prescriber and Medicaid coverage had the lowest concentration of fixed-dose combination fills, mean days’ supply per fill, and patient spending per therapy year. Patients aged 65 years or older with a primary care physician prescriber and commercial insurance had the highest concentration of fixeddose combinations fills and mail order fills. Conclusion: Addressing regional and market segment variation in factors promoting blood pressure medication adherence may increase adherence and improve hypertension management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗