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At least 541 records · Page 30

Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

Weather↗

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

data mining↗

Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗

Compression of a Data Stream by Selection among a Set of Compression Tools

A stream of raw data is compressed prior to transmissio in a communication channel by a system which includes modules for choosing a current segment of the raw data stream for processing and defining a set of operators for representing data segments by a mathematical operation and parameters thereof. The system performs a competitive evaluation of different tools comprising different combinations of one or more of the operators and the parameters threrof with respect to the current data segment in order to determine relative abilities among the different tools to reduce the number of bits required to represent the current data segment. The system then selects a tool and a set of parameters thereof found in the competitive evaluation to have a superior ability relative to others of the different tools to reduce a number of bits required to represent the current data segment.

Arlid, Bertelrud↗

Descriptions of the polarization states of vector processes - Applications to ULF magnetic fields

In recent years a wide variety of methods has been used to describe the polarization characteristics of ULF (.001 to 1 Hz) magnetic fields. This paper gives a detailed outline of some of the descriptions derived from the spectral matrices of n-variate stochastic processes. The matrices are expanded in three different, standard sets of matrices in order to add some simplification to the interpretation of the polarizations. One set is composed of n-squared trace-orthogonal, hermitean matrices and leads directly to a generalization of the Stokes parameters and the degree of polarization for n-variate processes. The second set is developed from the dyad expansion, which in particular cases is analogous to the spectral decomposition of the matrix. The third set is composed of n commuting idempotent matrices and proves to be the most useful set when the stochastic process is not strictly polarized.

Samson, J. C.↗

NuGrid stellar data set – III. Updated low-mass AGB models and s-process nucleosynthesis with metallicities Z= 0.01, Z = 0.02, and Z = 0.03

ABSTRACT The production of the neutron-capture isotopes beyond iron that we observe today in the Solar system is the result of the combined contribution of the r-process, the s-process, and possibly the i-process. Low-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) (1.5 < M/M⊙ < 3) and massive (M > 10 M⊙) stars have been identified as the main site of the s-process. In this work we consider the evolution and nucleosynthesis of low-mass AGB stars. We provide an update of the NuGrid Set models, adopting the same general physics assumptions but using an updated convective-boundary-mixing model accounting for the contribution from internal gravity waves. The combined data set includes the initial masses MZAMS/M⊙ = 2, 3 for Z = 0.03, 0.02, 0.01. These new models are computed with the mesa stellar code and the evolution is followed up to the end of the AGB phase. The nucleosynthesis was calculated for all isotopes in post-processing with the NuGrid mppnp code. The convective-boundary-mixing model leads to the formation of a 13C-pocket three times wider compared to the one obtained in the previous set of models, bringing the simulation results now in closer agreement with observations. Using these new models, we discuss the potential impact of other processes inducing mixing, like rotation, adopting parametric models compatible with theory and observations. Complete yield data tables, derived data products, and online analytic data access are provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Design of a linear projector for use with the normal modes of the GLAS 4th order GCM

The design of a linear projector for use with the normal modes of a model of atmospheric circulation is discussed. A central element in any normal mode initialization scheme is the process by which a set of data fields - winds, temperatures or geopotentials, and surface pressures - are expressed ("projected') in terms of the coefficients of a model's normal modes. This process is completely analogous to the Fourier decomposition of a single field (indeed a FFT applied in the zonal direction is a part of the process). Complete separability in all three spatial dimensions is assumed. The basis functions for the modal expansion are given. An important feature of the normal modes is their coupling of the structures of different fields, thus a coefficient in a normal mode expansion would contain both mass and momentum information.

Bloom, S. C.↗

Analysis and synthesis of abstract data types through generalization from examples

The discovery of general patterns of behavior from a set of input/output examples can be a useful technique in the automated analysis and synthesis of software systems. These generalized descriptions of the behavior form a set of assertions which can be used for validation, program synthesis, program testing, and run-time monitoring. Describing the behavior is characterized as a learning process in which the set of inputs is mapped into an appropriate transform space such that general patterns can be easily characterized. The learning algorithm must chose a transform function and define a subset of the transform space which is related to equivalence classes of behavior in the original domain. An algorithm for analyzing the behavior of abstract data types is presented and several examples are given. The use of the analysis for purposes of program synthesis is also discussed.

Wild, Christian↗

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

Progressive Hedging Decomposition for Solutions of Large-Scale Process Family Design Problems

In previous work, we have introduced a mathematical model for solving a discretized version of the process family design problem. This involves two sets of decision variables. One set selects which unit module designs are included in the process platform out of a candidate set of options; the other set determines which of these unit module designs are assigned to each variant. In this work, we exploit a parallelized Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm to solve even larger scale design problems. PH is a well-known algorithm traditionally used to solve stochastic programming problems. While our problem is not a two-stage stochastic programming problem, the structure is similar, and it can be directly mapped to the PH approach, which we employ here to solve this deterministic optimization problem. We decompose our problem by process variant. We treat the platform unit module design variables as first-stage and the assignment of unit module designs to variants as second-stage, solving the problem using mpi-sppy. We demonstrate this approach on case studies of CC, water desalination, and refrigeration.

Stinchfield, Georgia↗

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of a Testing System

A method of validating a probability of detection (POD) testing system using directed design of experiments (DOE) includes recording an input data set of observed hit and miss or analog data for sample components as a function of size of a flaw in the components. The method also includes processing the input data set to generate an output data set having an optimal class width, assigning a case number to the output data set, and generating validation instructions based on the assigned case number. An apparatus includes a host machine for receiving the input data set from the testing system and an algorithm for executing DOE to validate the test system. The algorithm applies DOE to the input data set to determine a data set having an optimal class width, assigns a case number to that data set, and generates validation instructions based on the case number.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

Process-structure-property considerations for wire-based directed energy deposition of Ti-6Al-4V

Directed energy deposition (DED) is an attractive additive manufacturing (AM) process for large structural components. The rapid solidification and layer-by-layer process associated with DED results in non-ideal microstructures, such as large grains with strong crystallographic textures. These non-ideal microstructures can lead to severe anisotropy in the mechanical properties. Despite these challenges, DED has been identified as a potential solution for the manufacturing of near net shape Ti-6Al-4V preforms, replacing lost casting and forging capabilities. Two popular wire-based directed energy deposition (W-DED) processes were considered for the manufacturing of Ti-6Al-4V with assessments on their respective metallurgical and mechanical properties, as compared to a conventionally processed material. The two W-DED processes explored were wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) and electron beam additive manufacturing (EBAM). High throughput inspection and tensile testing procedures were utilized to generate statistically relevant data sets related to each process and sample orientation. The 2 AM technologies produced material with remarkably different microstructures and mechanical properties. Importantly, results revealed key differences in strength and ductility for the two disparate processes which were found to be related to differences in the metallurgical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Machine Learning Method for the Forensics Attribution of Separated Plutonium

Plutonium (Pu) source attribution would be a powerful tool to support nuclear nonproliferation efforts. This capability to find the source of a Pu sample would act as a deterrent to smuggling efforts, and also help regulatory agencies verify declared nuclear activities. Work at Texas A&M University yielded a nuclear forensics methodology, which is capable of determining separated Pu’s reactor of origin, fuel burnup, and the time since irradiation (TSI)—three parameters of interest. The methodology used a set of ten intra-element isotopic ratios found in separated Pu, which was compared to a library of isotopic ratio values produced using neutronics simulations for reactors of interest. By calculating the probability that unknown Pu sample’s isotopic ratio set matched a set in the library, the methodology could predict the three parameters of interest of the sample. One shortcoming of this methodology was an inability to correctly attribute spoofed Pu, where Pu sourced from two different reactors or two different fuel burnup levels are mixed. A new methodology to rectify this vulnerability using machine learning (ML) technique is developed, instead of the maximum likelihood calculation previously used and the results are satisfactory. The ML approach leverages the existing simulated data for training the algorithm, but use them efficiently by only using intra-element isotope ratios that contribute to the attribution one of the three parameters at a time. Previously, all isotope ratios were used to attribute all three parameters together. The new methodology attributes the Pu parameters in three steps, one for each parameter, rather than resolving all of the three parameters simultaneously like the previous maximum likelihood approach. First, a support vector machine classifier with a set of seven isotopic ratios finds the reactor of origin and a set of regression models trained using gaussian process predicts the burnup with a different set of seven isotopes. Finally, TSI is calculated analytically using decay equations. Thus far, the new methodology is capable of attributing pure Pu samples and has been validated using experimental data. The next step will to be augment the classifier training data set with spoofed Pu data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Algorithm Sorts Groups Of Data

For efficient sorting, algorithm finds set containing minimum or maximum most significant data. Sets of data sorted as desired. Sorting process simplified by reduction of each multielement set of data to single representative number. First, each set of data expressed as polynomial with suitably chosen base, using elements of set as coefficients. Most significant element placed in term containing largest exponent. Base selected by examining range in value of data elements. Resulting series summed to yield single representative number. Numbers easily sorted, and each such number converted back to original set of data by successive division. Program written in BASIC.

Evans, J. D.↗

Observations in the vicinity of substorm onset: Implications for the substrom process

Multi-instrument data sets from the ground and satellites at both low and high altitude have provided new results concerning substorm onset and its source region in the magnetosphere. Twenty-six out of 37 substorm onset events showed evidence of azimuthally spaced auroral forms (AAFs) prior to the explosive poleward motion associated with optical substorm onset. AAFs can span 8 hours of local time prior to onset and generally propagate eastward in the morning sector. Onset itself is, however, more localized spanning only about 1 hour local time. AAF onset occur during time periods when the solar wind pressure is relatively high. AAFs brighten in conjunction with substorm onset leading to the conclusion that they are a growth phase activity casually related to substorm onset. Precursor activity associated with these AAFs is also seen near geosynchronous orbit altitude and examples show the relationship between the various instrumental definitions of substorm onset. The implied mode number (30 to 135) derived from this work is inconsistent with cavity mode resonances but is consistent with a modified flute/ballooning instability which requires azimuthal pressure gradients. The extended source region and the distance to the open-closed field line region constrain reconnection theory and local mechanisms for substorm onset. It is demonstrated that multiple onset substorms can exist for which localized dipolarizations and the Pi 2 occur simultaneously with tail stretching existing elsewhere. These pseudobreakups can be initiated by auroral streamers which originate at the most poleward set of arc systems and drift to the more equatorward main UV oval. Observations are presented of these AAFs in conjunction with low- and high-altitutde particle and magnetic field data. These place the activations at the interface between dipolar and taillike field lines probably near the peak in the cross-tail current. These onsets are put in the context of a new scenario for substorm morphology which employs individual modules which operate independently or couple together. This allows particular substorm events to be more accurately described and investigated.

Elphinstone, R. D.↗

An evaluation of machine processing techniques of ERTS-1 data for user applications

A broad study is described to evaluate a set of machine analysis and processing techniques applied to ERTS-1 data. Based on the analysis results in urban land use analysis and soil association mapping together with previously reported results in general earth surface feature identification and crop species classification, a profile of general applicability of this procedure is beginning to emerge. Put in the hands of a user who knows well the information needed from the data and also is familiar with the region to be analyzed it appears that significantly useful information can be generated by these methods. When supported by preprocessing techniques such as the geometric correction and temporal registration capabilities, final products readily useable by user agencies appear possible. In parallel with application, through further research, there is much potential for further development of these techniques both with regard to providing higher performance and in new situations not yet studied.

Landgrebe, D.↗

Production processing and workflow management software evaluation in the DUNE collaboration

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be theworld’s foremost neutrino detector when it begins taking data in the mid-2020s.Two prototype detectors, collectively known as ProtoDUNE, have begun tak-ing data at CERN and have accumulated over 3 PB of raw and reconstructeddata since September 2018. Particle interaction within liquid argon time projec-tion chambers are challenging to reconstruct, and the collaboration has set upa dedicated Production Processing group to perform centralized reconstructionof the large ProtoDUNE datasets as well as to generate large-scale Monte Carlosimulation. Part of the production infrastructure includes workflow manage-ment software and monitoring tools that are necessary to eciently submit andmonitor the large and diverse set of jobs needed to meet the experiment’s goals.We will give a brief overview of DUNE and ProtoDUNE, describe the varioustypes of jobs within the Production Processing group’s purview, and discuss thesoftware and workflow management strategies are currently in place to meetexisting demand. We will conclude with a description of our requirements in aworkflow management software solution and our planned evaluation process.

Herner, Kenneth R.↗

Development of a conduction-based model for analyzing frozen startup of alkali-metal heat pipes

One key area of interest in heat pipe modeling/simulation is to analyze the startup behavior of the liquid-metal heat pipes (LMHPs) from a frozen state. This so-called ‘frozen startup’ process involves a complex set of nonlinear mass and heat transport phenomena, including phase transitions from solid to liquid and vapor, multiphase interactions, microporous wick flow, and compressible vapor dynamics. The complexity of these processes makes it challenging to simulate LMHP’s frozen startup using conventional numerical methods or commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. This paper presents a simplified conduction-based modeling approach that can provide practical insights into the entire LMHP frozen startup process, while alleviating the challenges of modeling its complex physics. The theoretical foundation and physical assumptions of the proposed model are based solely on heat-conduction equation, allowing for a more tractable simulation without sacrificing essential physical accuracy. The proposed model was implemented in a commercial CFD software, and its prediction was compared with the experimental data obtained from sodium heat-pipe startup experiments. The comparison highlights the proposed model's ability to capture the transient thermal behavior of LMHP during frozen startup. This study not only validates the conduction-based frozen startup modeling method but also shows its potential as a practical and efficient tool for understanding the startup performance of the LMHP systems.

Microreactor↗