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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Numerical Model Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Satellite Derived Vegetation Roughness

The sensitivity of a mesoscale weather prediction model to a 1 km satellite-based vegetation roughness initialization is investigated for a domain within the south central United States. Three different roughness databases are employed: i) a control or standard lookup table roughness that is a function only of land cover type, ii) a spatially heterogeneous roughness database, specific to the domain, that was previously derived using a physically based procedure and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and iii) a MODIS climatologic roughness database that like (i) is a function only of land cover type, but possesses domain specific mean values from (ii). The model used is the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) coupled to the Community Land Model within the Land Information System (LIS). For each simulation, a statistical comparison is made between modeled results and ground observations within a domain including Oklahoma, Eastern Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana during a 4-day period within IHOP 2002. Sensitivity analysis compares the impact the three roughness initializations on time-series temperature, precipitation probability of detection (POD), average wind speed, boundary layer height, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Overall, the results indicate that, for the current investigation, replacement of the standard look-up table values with the satellite-derived values statistically improves model performance for most observed variables. Such natural roughness heterogeneity enhances the surface wind speed, PBL height and TKE production up to 10 percent, with a lesser effect over grassland, and greater effect over mixed land cover domains.

Jasinski, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Mechanism for the Loading-Unloading Substorm Cycle Missing in MHD Global Magnetospheric Simulation Models

Loading and consequent unloading of magnetic flux is an essential element of the substorm cycle in Earth's magnetotail. We are unaware of an available global MHD magnetospheric simulation model that includes a loading- unloading cycle in its behavior. Given the central role that MHD models presently play in the development of our understanding of magnetospheric dynamics, and given the present plans for the central role that these models will play in ongoing space weather prediction programs, it is clear that this failure must be corrected. A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model has been developed that incorporates an idealized current- driven instability with a resistive MHD system. Under steady loading, the model exhibits a global loading- unloading cycle. The specific mechanism for producing the loading-unloading cycle will be discussed. It will be shown that scale-free avalanching of electromagnetic energy through the model, from loading to unloading, is carried by repetitive bursts of localized reconnection. Each burst leads, somewhat later, to a field configuration that is capable of exciting a reconnection burst again. This process repeats itself in an intermittent manner while the total field energy in the system falls. At the end of an unloading interval, the total field energy is reduced to well below that necessary to initiate the next unloading event and, thus, a loading-unloading cycle results. It will be shown that, in this model, it is the topology of bursty localized reconnection that is responsible for the appearance of the loading-unloading cycle.

Klimas, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Agenda for Land Data Assimilation Priorities: Realizing the Promise of Terrestrial Water, Energy, and Vegetation Observations From Space

The task of quantifying spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial water, energy, and vegetation conditions is challenging due to the significant complexity and heterogeneity of these conditions, all of which are impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities. To address this challenge, Earth Observations (EOs) of the land and their utilization within data assimilation (DA) systems are vital. Satellite EOs are particularly relevant, as they offer quasi-global coverage, are non-intrusive, and provide uniformity, rapid measurements, and continuity. The past three decades have seen unprecedented growth in the number and variety of land remote sensing technologies launched by space agencies and commercial companies around the world. There have also been significant developments in land modeling and DA systems to provide tools that can exploit these measurements. Despite these advances, several important gaps remain in current land DA research and applications. This paper discusses these gaps, particularly in the context of using DA to improve model states for short-term numerical weather and sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions. We outline an agenda for land DA priorities so that the next generation of land DA systems will be better poised to take advantage of the significant current and anticipated shifts and advancements in remote sensing, modeling, computational technologies, and hardware resources.

land surface↗
NASA NTRS1980

The compatible balancing approach to initialization, and four-dimensional data assimilation

A unified theoretical approach to both the four-dimensional assimilation of asynoptic data and the initialization problem is attempted. This approach relies on the derivation of certain relationships between geopotential tendencies and tendencies of the horizontal velocity field in primitive-equation models of atmospheric flow. The approach is worked out and analyzed in detail for some simple barotropic models. Certain independent results of numerical experiments for the time-continuous assimilation of real asynoptic meteorological data into a complex, baroclinic weather prediction model are discussed in the context of the present approach. Tentative inferences are drawn for practical assimilation procedures.

Ghil, M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Description of the ARM Large-Scale Forcing Data from the Constrained Variational Analysis (VARANAL) Version 2

This technical report represents an update of the previous technical report written by Zhang et al. (2001a) (available at http://www.arm.gov/publications/tech_reports/arm-tr-005.pdf), which described the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility constrained variational analysis (VARANAL) that is used to develop the large-scale forcing data for driving single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulation models (LES). The VARANAL algorithm was originally developed by Zhang and Lin (1997) and Zhang et al. (2001b) at Stony Brook University and was migrated to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) as the ARM operational objective analysis system in May 1999. Since then, the algorithm has been evolved with time along with the availability of new observations and techniques to meet various modeling needs. Major updates include: (1) The method used to develop multi-year continuous forcing data (Xie et al. 2004), (2) The incorporation of eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) turbulent fluxes into the analysis (Tang et al. 2019), and (3) Improvements to the workflow (e.g., implementing part of the code into the ARM Data Integrator [ADI]) to increase efficiency. The ARM large-scale forcing data have been widely used for SCM/CRM/LES to understand and improve physical processes in models. Zhang et al. (2016) has provided a comprehensive review of the SCM concept, early efforts to derive forcing data for SCM studies, efforts of the ARM constrained variational analysis, and previous SCM studies using ARM cases. This technical report focuses on the constrained variational analysis algorithm and the introduction of the ARM VARANAL products.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Impact of Aerosols on Numerical Weather Predictions

This presentation focused on proposed Aerosol related case studies, and details were given about participating centers and modeling systems, as well as webpage and analysis tools. Preliminary results were given with regards to a case study on the dust storm over Egypt and another case study on the extreme pollution event in China.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS1995

Impact of geostationary satellite water vapor channel data on weather analysis and forecasting

Preliminary results from NWP impact studies are indicating that upper-tropospheric wind information provided by tracking motions in sequences of geostationary satellite water vapor imagery can positively influence forecasts on regional scales, and possibly on global scales as well. The data are complimentary to cloud-tracked winds by providing data in cloud-free regions, as well as comparable in quality. First results from GOES-8 winds are encouraging, and further efforts and model impacts will be directed towards optimizing these data in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Assuming successful launches of GOES-J and GMS-5 satellites in 1995, high quality and resolution water vapor imagers will be available to provide nearly complete global upper-tropospheric wind coverage.

Velden, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

ATMS Radiometric Noise Characterization

The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), on SNPP and NOAA-20, provides vertical atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles that are a key input to numerical weather prediction. Full characterization of radiometric noise is critical to error modeling, algorithm development and the potential development of performance requirements and product improvements. This paper presents estimates of white noise and low-frequency 1/f noise as derived from the Allan variance and scan-to-scan autocorrelations of data from the internal hot calibration. This approach allows direct comparison of on-orbit performance of the two units as well as comparison between ground calibration test data and on-orbit performance. The autocorrelation at multiple scan intervals is used as input to a theoretical model of the NET of inferred scene brightness temperature, when using weighted samples of calibration data over multiple scans. This will support selection of optimized calibration weighting functions for each channel, as well as providing further insight into the striping phenomenon. These measured autocorrelations are also compared to the autocorrelations derived from the 1/f spectra obtained both in special ground and on-orbit tests that characterize gain fluctuation. Channel cross-correlations are also presented, which can have a significant impact on effectiveness of direct assimilation performance.

instrument calibration↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Transport models for numerical forecast

The explosive growth of computing power, coupled with scientific and technological emphasis on a national scale, has led to significant major advances in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) during the last two decades. There are about half a dozen major centers around the world running global NWP models operationally. Many more countries have operational hemispheric or limited-area models which provide weather forecasts. The global models typically have several hundred kilometer resolution, while the limited-area models usually have horizontal spacing of 50 to 100 km. Given the pace of burgeoning growth in this area, it seems warranted to occasionally take an overview of aspects of the field common to all modelers. Here, a brief look is taken at the nature of subgrid scale turbulence transport parameterization, and some of the difficulties pertaining thereto, with particular emphasis on operational NWP models.

Burk, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

LDAS Land Data Assimilation Systems

The land-surface component of the hydrological cycle is fundamental to the overall functioning of the atmospheric and climate processes. The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of water and energy cycles is critical to improve our understanding of the land-surface-atmosphere interaction and the impact of land-surface processes on climate extremes. Because the accurate knowledge of these processes and their variability is important for climate predictions, most Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated land-surface schemes in their models. However, errors in the NWP forcing accumulate in the surface and energy stores, leading to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning and related processes.

data↗
DOE OSTI2019

“Evaluation of boundary layer cloud processes in an advanced parameterization for global models” (Final Report)

Low clouds over the ocean are a critical component of our planet’s energy budget because they emit almost as much energy as the surface while being much more reflective than the ocean, resulting in a strong net cooling effect. Despite their importance, low marine clouds remain a persistent source of uncertainty in future climate projections. This project explored how the dynamics, thermodynamics and spatial organization of low clouds is represented in a particular physical simplification, or parameterization, of small-scale air motions and cloud processes commonly employed in global atmospheric models used for short-term weather and longer-term earth system prediction. The overall goal was to develop long-term observational products to constrain numerical model representations of turbulence and cloud processes using observations from the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site. These constraints were then used to demonstrate the type of information that can be gained from confronting simulations with the observations and we assessed the performance of a parameterization in simulating periods of low clouds at ENA. Finally, we used detailed computational fluid dynamics simulations of turbulence and cloud properties to evaluate general physical assumptions embedded in simplified representations of clouds and turbulence for global models of the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Parameterization: Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range, and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to represent model inadequacy better and to improve the quantification of forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical weather prediction, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations not only provides better estimates of uncertainty, but it is also extremely promising for reducing long-standing climate biases and is relevant for determining the climate response to external forcing. This article highlights recent developments from different research groups that show that the stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models 1) gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate and 2) reduces systematic model bias. We make a case that the use of mathematically stringent methods for the derivation of stochastic dynamic equations will lead to substantial improvements in our ability to accurately simulate weather and climate at all scales. Recent work in mathematics, statistical mechanics, and turbulence is reviewed; its relevance for the climate problem is demonstrated; and future research directions are outlined

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗