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At least 541 records · Page 30

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why Wideband Gap Needs Techno-Economics

The wideband gap community when discussing projects antidotally refers to the cost of the technology, frequently noting the higher wideband gap upfront cost in comparison to the incumbent state of art. Other technologies such as photovoltaics have embraced techno-economics analysis (TEA) as a method of analytically articulating the impacts of research advancements on system performance and lifetime costs. Our TEA shows the potential impact of research advancements on Gallium Oxide (Ga2O3) and Silicon Carbide (SiC) wafer manufacturing cost, the impact on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) when using a SiC based solar inverter, and lastly how the high cost of devices (SiC in this case) can be offset by other system cuts, such as the footprint and cooling reductions in a 1MW variable frequency motor drive. The specific goal is to show analytically the lifetime cost and performance benefits of adopting wideband gap technology whether it is at the device level or it is cumulative benefit though a simplified balance of system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers part I: Computational models and workflow

Computational simulations have become central to the seismic analysis and design of major infrastructure over the past several decades. Most major structures are now “proof tested” virtually through representative simulations of earthquake-induced response. More recently, with the advancement of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms and the associated massively parallel computational ecosystems, simulation is beginning to play a role in increased understanding and prediction of ground motions for earthquake hazard assessments. However, the computational requirements for regional-scale geophysics-based ground motion simulations are extreme, which has restricted the frequency resolution of direct simulations and limited the ability to perform the large number of simulations required to numerically explore the problem parametric space. In this article, recent developments toward an integrated, multidisciplinary earth science-engineering computational framework for the regional-scale simulation of both ground motions and resulting structural response are described with a particular emphasis on advancing simulations to frequencies relevant to engineered systems. This multidisciplinary computational development is being carried out as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project with the goal of achieving a computational framework poised to exploit emerging DOE exaflop computer platforms scheduled for the 2022–2023 timeframe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition

Here, we report diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Blob velocities and sizes in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer for ohmic and high confinement mode plasmas

An improved time delay estimation method is used to calculate the velocity of cross-field blob motion in the scrape-off layer of Alcator C-Mod for an ohmic and two high confinement (H-mode) plasmas; an edge localized mode free and an enhanced D-alpha H-mode. The gas puff imaging data analysis results are interpreted in the framework of a stochastic model that describes the fluctuations as a super-position of uncorrelated blob-like structures. In all confinement modes investigated, the scrape-off layer is dominated by large amplitude, blob-like filaments moving radially outwards with velocities in the range from 400 to 1000 m/s. Blobs in high confinement mode plasmas have similar velocities and sizes as in ohmic plasma, which is consistent with the close similarity of conditionally averaged burst shapes and frequency spectra for the confinement modes investigated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Observations of Offshore Low‐Level Jets Off the U.S. East Coast Reveal Systematic Biases in ERA5 and HRRR

Low-level jets (LLJs)—wind speed maxima typically occurring a few hundred meters above the surface—are common off the U.S. East Coast and influence many atmospheric processes with societal importance, including cloud formation, aviation safety, and search-and-rescue. However, their vertical structure and frequency remain poorly quantified due to limited offshore observations. This study presents new scanning Doppler LiDAR and infrared spectroradiometer data from the 2024 summer deployment of an offshore barge during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. These coupled wind and temperature profiles provide unprecedented resolution to assess LLJ behavior and model performance. LLJs occurred in over 21% of observed profiles, with a weak diurnal preference for nighttime and early morning hours and maximum winds typically near 300 m. Both ERA5 and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh analysis underestimate jet wind speeds and misrepresent the boundary layer thermal structure. These results highlight persistent model biases and the critical need for high-resolution offshore observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

MEP: Mobility Energy Productivity Metric

In response to the need to assess fundamental improvements in mobility as technology provides new modes, methods, and opportunities in urban areas to connect people with goods, services, and employment, a mobility-energy productivity score (MEPS) has been developed. The MEPS fundamentally measures the potential of a multi-modal system to connect a person to a variety of services and activities that define a high-quality of life. The MEPS is measured relative to the convenience and energy needed to provide connectivity. Fundamentally derived from accessibility theory, the MEPS advances practice by using readily available travel time data (either from web-based APIs or outputs from an urban transportation model) combined with established parameters that reflect the energy intensity of various travel modes, and relative frequency of activity engagement. The construction of the MEPS allows for aggregation and disaggregation to the appropriate spatial, modal, and trip purpose resolution, as analysis needs dictate. The MEPS could be used to compare alternative futures related to technology, infrastructure investment, or policy, providing a much needed tool for planners, researchers, and analysts. In other words, the metric measures how efficiently connected a place is.

Hou, Yi↗

Topological Signature of Stratospheric Poincaré-Gravity Waves

The rotation of Earth breaks time-reversal and reflection symmetries in an opposite sense north and south of the equator, leading to a topological origin for certain atmospheric and oceanic equatorial waves. Away from the equator, the rotating shallow-water and stably stratified primitive equations exhibit Poincaré inertia–gravity waves that have nontrivial topology as evidenced by their strict superinertial time scale and a phase singularity in frequency–wavevector space. This nontrivial topology then predicts, via the principle of bulk-interface correspondence, the existence of two equatorial waves along the equatorial interface, the Kelvin and Yanai waves. To directly test the nontrivial topology of Poincaré-gravity waves in observations, we examine ERA5 data and study cross correlations between the wind velocity and geopotential height of the midlatitude stratosphere at the 50 hPa height. We find the predicted vortex and antivortex in the relative phase of the geopotential height and velocity at the high frequencies of the waves. By contrast, lower-frequency planetary waves are found to have trivial topology also as expected from theory. These results demonstrate a new way to understand stratospheric waves and provide a new qualitative tool to investigate waves in other components of the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conversion efficiency of soliton Kerr combs

We investigate the conversion efficiency (CE) of soliton modelocked Kerr frequency combs. Our analysis reveals three distinct scaling regimes of CE with the cavity free spectral range (FSR), which depends on the relative contributions of the coupling and propagation loss to the total cavity loss. Our measurements, for the case of critical coupling, verify our theoretical prediction over a range of FSRs and pump powers. Our numerical simulations also indicate that mode crossings have an adverse effect on the achievable CE. Our results indicate that microresonator combs operating with spacings in the electronically detectable regime are highly inefficient, which could have implications for integrated Kerr comb devices.

Jang, Jae K. (ORCID:0000000187786058)↗

Ribbon Wrinkling Origin and Its Effect on Tape-Wound Core Shape

Improved understanding of advanced manufacturing techniques is needed to fabricate next- generation soft magnetic tape-wound cores. These utilize metal amorphous nano-composites (MANCs) in the form of long thin ribbons. MANCs exhibit attractive soft magnetic properties for use in high frequency and high power density magnetic components. Of particular interest here, the permeability and hysteresis of MANC ribbons can be tuned in a strain annealing process. An unexpected consequence is that wider ribbons develop longitudinal wrinkle patterns. This can substantially reduce the tape-wound core stacking factor. However, when winding a wrinkled ribbon into a toroidal core, the wrinkles can completely flatten, or crinkle. By this phenomenon, the stacking factor can be recovered. To understand the crinkling effect we have developed analytical and finite element analysis (FEA) models. Experiments with known boundary conditions demonstrate the transition from wrinkled to crinkled versus winding curvature. The models utilize an elastic modulus measured via ribbon tensile testing and a ribbon thickness value measurement made by profilometry. The analytical model provides insight into the crinkling effect but cannot explain the length of the transition region from wrinkling to crinkling. With FEA, we successfully predict the transition region and depending on wrinkling amplitude can determine when a ribbon will wind into a useable core. Such mechanics-based insight provides critical feedback for allowable processing parameters in the strain annealing process.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Case Study on Condenser Water Supply Temperature Optimization with a District Cooling Plant

District cooling (DC) continues to proliferate due to increasing global cooling demands and economies of scale benefits; however, most district-scale modeling has focused on heating, and to the best of our knowledge, researchers have yet to model cooling plants featuring waterside economizers in DC settings. With the popular Modelica Buildings library expanding its capabilities to district scale, this study is one of the first to demonstrate how the open-source models can be used for detailed energy and control analysis of a DC plant. For a real-world case study, we developed and calibrated high-fidelity models for a DC system central plant at a college campus in Colorado, USA, and we optimized the condenser water supply temperature (CWST) setpoint for a DC plant across multiple time horizons using the Optimization library in Dymola. Results indicate that annual CWST optimization saves 4.7% annual plant energy, with less than 1% of additional energy savings gained through daily optimization. This confirms previous studies' findings that high frequency CWST optimizations are not necessary for the studied system.

chiller plant↗

Flexible Magnetic Polymer Composite Substrate with Ba 1.5 Sr 1.5 Z Hexaferrite Particles of VHF/Low UHF Patch Antennas for UAVs and Medical Implant Devices

Our goal is to fabricate flexible magnetic polymer composites as antenna substrates for very high frequency (VHF)/low ultra high frequency (UHF) antennas for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and medical devices. Magnetodielectric materials, which have permeability (μ) similar to permittivity (ε), have attracted great attention, because they facilitate miniaturization of microwave devices while keeping or enhancing electromagnetic characteristics. Mechanically millled Ba 1.5 Sr 1.5 Co 2 Fe 24 O 41 (Ba 1.5 Sr 1.5 Z) hexaferrite particles were used to increase permeability in the interesting frequency band. The microwave properties of Ba 1.5 Sr 1.5 Z composites were predicted and measured. Hansen’s zero-order analysis of antenna bandwidth and electromagnetic field simulation showed that the hexaferrite-based flexible composite could enhance a bandwidth and achieve the miniaturization of antennas as well. The magnetic antenna substrates can be a good solution to integrate antennas into the UAVs whose dimensions are comparable to or larger than communication wavelength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptive mesh based combustion simulations of direct fuel injection effects in a supersonic cavity flame-holder

Here, we present high-fidelity reacting simulations of a supersonic cavity flame-holder configuration. The focus of this work is on flame stabilization brought about by varying the location of fuel injection in a cavity stabilized supersonic flow of air. Central to our approach is a compressible multi-species reacting flow solver that uses adaptive-mesh-refinement (AMR), enabling the resolution of flame, shock-waves, boundary-layers, and small-scale structures in the computational domain. Our analysis indicates that fuel injection closer to the ramp at the aft end of the cavity allows for greater mixing and lower peak temperatures compared to fuel injection upstream that is closer to the backward facing step of the cavity. This difference is mainly due to greater turbulent fluctuations generated from the shear-layer towards the cavity ramp, thereby enhancing the mixing of fuel and air. A low frequency oscillatory behaviour in heat-release and pressure was also observed for the upstream injection case while a much higher-frequency phenomena was observed in the near-ramp injection case. By identifying the important physical determinants of the combustion processes, this study illustrates a promising pathway to design and optimize direct fuel injection strategies in supersonic cavity flame-holders that can improve flame stability, combustion efficiency, and reduce emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Vortex Structure of Head Bubble in Convective Cloud Starting Plume

Abstract A developing cumulus cloud (Cu) was modeled, and dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical properties of an ascending head bubble reproducing the upper part of a developing Cu were investigated. The data for analysis are taken from 10-m-resolution LES of trade wind Cu under BOMEX conditions. The detection of a rising bubble is carried out using wavelet filtering of the velocity fields and microphysical fields, while a low-frequency signal of the filtering is associated with the convective-scale structure of cloud. We substantiate and discuss the representation of the bubble as a vortex ring, and estimate the parameters of this vortex ring. The simplest Hill’s vortex was chosen as a model of a vortex ring inside cloud. Analytical approximations of the radial profiles of the vertical velocity and of conservative quantities (such as total water mixing ratio and liquid water potential temperature inside and outside the bubble) are obtained. The spatial structure of these quantities is investigated using analytical expressions. Analytical models for spatial distributions of liquid water content (LWC) and adiabatic fraction (AF) are also designed and analyzed. The results demonstrate the existence of a cloud core with high values of LWC and AF up to the height of 1800 m. The horizontally averaged value of the adiabatic fraction, calculated analytically using the Hill’s vortex concept, is evaluated as 0.39, which is the typical AF value in the upper parts of such Cu. The vertical profiles of different important quantities characterizing cloud structure are presented. The analysis performed in this study allows us to conclude that a rising vortex ring plays the dominating role in formation of the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of developing Cu. Significance Statement 1) Dynamic and thermodynamic fields of a developing cumulus cloud simulated by high-resolution LES with spectral bin microphysics are separated into convective and turbulent components by means of the wavelet technique. 2) The analysis of convective component of the cloud revealed the existence of a vortex ring at the developing stage of the cloud and evaluate its parameters. 3) The analysis performed in this study allows us to conclude that a rising vortex ring plays the important role in formation of the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of developing Cu. 4) The study provides a novel insight into the cloud–environment interaction. 5) The approximating equations describing the vortex ring can be usefully applied for developing new schemes of convective parameterization.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Adapting confocal Raman microscopy for in situ studies of redox transformations at electrode-electrolyte interfaces

Confocal Raman microscopy was applied to quantify redox species present within the diffusion layer adjacent to an electrode surface under potentiostatic control. A glass microscope coverslip with a thin indium tin oxide (ITO) coating served as both the working electrode and optical window for a microscope-stage mountable spectroelectrochemical cell. A high numerical aperture objective mounted in an inverted microscope frame just below the stage brought excitation radiation through the coverslip window and to a tight focus a few micrometers above the ITO film surface. Species diffusing into the confocal probe volume defined by the excitation beam focus and the collected light region were detected, identified and quantified based on their Raman scattering frequencies and intensities. Here, in measurements that interrogated the interconversion of ferrocyanide and ferricyanide ions as a function of applied voltage, least-squares regression analysis of spectral datasets predicted the formal potential and relative surface concentrations of the ions in good agreement with the expected Nernstian response. Preliminary studies of methyl viologen reduction at an ITO film/Nafion membrane interface were conducted and show the possibility for estimation of mass transport coefficients of redox species within ionic polymer materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Shivalik Plasma Device-I, a glow discharge device to study the collective dynamics of dusty plasma

Using a uniquely configured glow discharge-based Shivalik Plasma Device-I, we demonstrate a variety of collective phenomena in dusty plasma away from the glow discharge region. The cylindrical glass device produces plasma using parallel disc-shaped electrodes with a smaller anode size than the cathode. The dust microparticles are initially sprinkled over the grounded cathode. These particles acquire a significant negative charge upon plasma formation, resulting in their levitation due to the balance between the Coulomb force and gravity. The new device supports the levitation of a big-sized (10 × 8 × 5 cm 3 ) three-dimensional dust cloud over the glass surface. It contrasts the dusty plasma formations in-between electrodes reported earlier. As the discharge voltage varies from high to low, the dust cloud travels from over the glass surface to between the electrodes. A complex interplay of dust void over the cathode, a sharp density gradient, and gravity lead to self-excitation of collective dust phenomena. It includes dust density waves (phase velocity, v ph ~4 cm/s), dust cloud oscillation (frequency, f = 5 Hz), sheared flow (flow velocity, v f ~ 1 cm/s), and multiple-sized dust vortices. These dust vortices provided an excellent platform for studying turbulent mixing phenomena. The power spectrum analysis agreed with two-dimensional Kolmogorov power-law scaling. This is an ideal dusty plasma apparatus where we can create or move the dust cloud to a location of choice from the glass surface to in-between the electrodes and excite one among many collective dust dynamics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Status of the PIP-II Cryoplant

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) is an essential upgrade to the Fermilab accelerator complex featuring a new 800-MeV Superconducting Radio-Frequency (SRF) linear accelerator (Linac). The Linac contains 23 SRF cryomodules with the SRF cavities operating at 2 K, a high temperature thermal shield at 40 K and low temperature intercepts at 4.5 K. The PIP-II cryoplant will provide the necessary cooling for the cryomodules and the cryogenic distribution system interconnecting cryoplant and cryomodules. This paper describes the evolution of the PIP-II cryoplant conceptual design and specifications, including the expected heat loads, required cooling features and the integrated design. The cryoplant capacity margin analysis and fast cool-down mode will also be discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Accelerating cavity fault prediction using deep learning at Jefferson Laboratory

Abstract Accelerating cavities are an integral part of the continuous electron beam accelerator facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory. When any of the over 400 cavities in CEBAF experiences a fault, it disrupts beam delivery to experimental user halls. In this study, we propose the use of a deep learning model to predict slowly developing cavity faults. By utilizing pre-fault signals, we train a long short-term memory-convolutional neural network binary classifier to distinguish between radio-frequency (RF) signals during normal operation and RF signals indicative of impending faults. We optimize the model by adjusting the fault confidence threshold and implementing a multiple consecutive window criterion to identify fault events, ensuring a low false positive rate. Results obtained from analysis of a real dataset collected from the accelerating cavities simulating a deployed scenario demonstrate the model’s ability to identify normal signals with 99.99% accuracy and correctly predict 80% of slowly developing faults. Notably, these achievements were achieved in the context of a highly imbalanced dataset, and fault predictions were made several hundred milliseconds before the onset of the fault. Anticipating faults enables preemptive measures to improve operational efficiency by preventing or mitigating their occurrence.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗