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Probing gravity and growth of structure with gravitational waves and galaxies’ peculiar velocity

The low-redshift velocity field is a unique probe of the growth of cosmic structure and gravity. Here, we propose to use distances from gravitational wave (GW) detections, in conjunction with the redshifts of their host galaxies from wide field spectroscopic surveys (e.g., DESI, 4MOST, TAIPAN), to measure peculiar motions within the local Universe. Such measurement has the potential to constrain the growth rate f σ 8 and test gravity through determination of the gravitational growth index γ , complementing constraints from other peculiar velocity measurements. We find that binary neutron star mergers with associated counterpart at z ≲ 0.2 that will be detected by the Einstein Telescope (ET) will be able to constrain f σ 8 to ~ 3 % precision after 10 years of operations when combined with galaxy overdensities from DESI and TAIPAN. If a larger network of third generation GW detectors is available (e.g., including the Cosmic Explorer), the same constraints can be reached over a shorter timescale ( ~ 5 years for a 3 detectors network). The same events (plus information from their hosts’ redshifts) can constrain γ to σ γ ≲ 0.04 . This constraint is precise enough to discern general relativity from other popular gravity models at 3 σ . This constraint is improved to σ γ ~ 0.02 – 0.03 when combined with galaxy overdensities. The potential of combining galaxies’ peculiar velocities with gravitational wave detections for cosmology highlights the need for extensive optical to near-infrared follow-up of nearby gravitational wave events, or exquisite GW localization, in the next decade.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Large Solar Flares and Sheared Magnetic Field Configuration

This Comment gives additional information about the nature of flaring locations on the Sun described in the article "Sun unleashes Halloween storm", by R. E. Lopez, et al. What causes the large explosions from solar active regions that unleash huge magnetic storms and adverse space weather? It is now beyond doubt that the magnetic field in solar active regions harbors free energy that is released during these events. Direct measurements of the longitudinal and transverse components of active region magnetic fields with the vector magnetograph at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), taken on a regular basis for the last 30 years, have found key signatures of the locations of powerful flares. A vector magnetograph detects and measures the magnetic shear, which is the deviation of the observed transverse magnetic field direction from the potential field. The sheared locations possess abundant free magnetic energy for solar flares. In addition to active region NOAA 10486, the one that produced the largest flares last October, the NASA/MSFC vector magnetograph has observed several other such complex super active regions, including NOAA 6555 and 6659.

Choudhary, Debi Prasad↗

A Multi-Wavelength Investigation of the Radio-Loud Supernova PTF11qcj and its Circumstellar Environment

We present the discovery, classification, and extensive panchromatic (from radio to X-ray) follow-up observations of PTF11qcj, a supernova (SN) discovered by the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). Our observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array show that this event is radio-loud: PTF11qcj reached a radio peak luminosity comparable to that of the famous gamma-ray-burst-associated SN 1998bw (L (sub 5 gigahertz) approximates 10 (sup 29) ergs per second per hertz). PTF11qcj is also detected in X-rays with the Chandra Observatory, and in the infrared band with Spitzer. Our multi-wavelength analysis probes the SN interaction with circumstellar material. The radio observations suggest a progenitor mass-loss rate of approximately 10 (sup -4) the mass of the sun per year times (v (sub omega) divided by 1000 kilometers per second), and a velocity of approximately 0.3-0.5 c (the speed of light in a vacuum) for the fastest moving ejecta (at around 10 days after explosion). However, these estimates are derived assuming the simplest model of SN ejecta interacting with a smooth circumstellar wind, and do not account for possible inhomogeneities in the medium and asphericity of the explosion. The radio data show deviations from such a simple model, as well as a late-time re-brightening. The X-ray flux from PTF11qcj is compatible with the high-frequency extrapolation of the radio synchrotron emission (within the large uncertainties). A light echo from pre-existing dust is in agreement with our infrared data. Our pre-explosion data from the PTF suggest that a precursor eruption of absolute magnitude M (sub r) approximately equal to -13 mag may have occurred approximately 2.5 years prior to the SN explosion. Overall, PTF11qcj fits the expectations from the explosion of a Wolf-Rayet star. Precursor eruptions may be a feature characterizing the final pre-explosion evolution of such stars.

Radio↗

Near-infrared mapping of spiral barred galaxies

In external galaxies, near-infrared emission originates from stellar populations, hot dust, free-free emission from H+ regions, gaseous emission, non-thermal nucleus if any. Because of the low extinction compared to the visible, infrared wavelengths are useful to probe regions obscured by dust such as central parts where starburst phenomena can occur because of the large quantity of matter. The results presented were obtained with a 32 x 32 InSb charge injection device (CID) array cooled at 4K, at the f/36 cassegrain focus of the 3m60 Canada-France-Hawaii telescope with a spatial resolution of 0.5 inches per pixel. The objects presented are spiral barred galaxies mapped at J(1.25 microns), H(1.65 microns) and K(2.2 microns). The non-axisymetric potential due to the presence of a bar induces dynamical processes leading to the confinement of matter and peculiar morphologies. Infrared imaging is used to study the link between various components. Correlations with other wavelengths ranges and 2-colors diagrams ((J-H), (H-K)) lead to the identification of star forming regions, nucleus. Maps show structures connected to the central core. The question is, are they flowing away or toward the nucleus. Observations of M83 lead to several conclusions. The star forming region, detected in the visible and the infrared cannot be very compact and must extend to the edge of the matter concentration. The general shape of the near-infrared emission and the location of radio and 10 micron peaks suggest the confinement of matter between the inner Linblad resonances localized from CO measurements about 100 and 400 pc. The distribution of color indices in the arc from southern part to the star forming region suggests an increasing amount of gas and a time evolution eventually triggered by supernova explosions. Close to the direction of the bar, a bridge-like structure connects the arc to the nucleus with peculiar color indices. Perhaps, this structure can be linked to a height velocity component seen in UV and we can attribute it to a jet and/or a matter flow along the bar toward the nucleus, fuelling it. NGC 1068 is the nearest Seyfert 2 galaxy. It has been a subject of many studies at all wavelengths. This object was mapped at J, H, K, L and M, and in polaro-imagery. Results are given.

Gallais, P.↗

Kubernetes for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment Data Acquisition

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiment based in the USA which is expected to start taking data in 2029. DUNE aims to precisely measure neutrino oscillation parameters by detecting neutrinos from the LBNF beamline (Fermilab) at the Far Detector, 1,300 kilometres away, in South Dakota at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The Far Detector will consist of four cryogenic Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber detectors of 17 kT, each producing more than 1 TB/sec of data. The main requirements for the data acquisition system are the ability to run continuously for extended periods of time, with a 99% up-time requirement, and the functionality to record both beam neutrinos and low energy neutrinos from the explosion of a neighbouring supernova, should one occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The key challenges are the high data rates that the detectors generate and the deep underground environment, which places constraints on power and space. To overcome these challenges, DUNE plans to use a highly optimised C++ software suite and a server farm of about 110 nodes continuously running about two hundred multicore processes located close to the detector, 1.5 kilometres underground. Thirty nodes will be at the surface and will run around two hundred processes simultaneously. DUNE is studying the use of the Kubernetes framework to manage containerised workloads and take advantage of its resource definitions and high up-time services to run the DAQ system. Progress in deploying these systems at the CERN neutrino platform on the prototype DUNE experiments is reported.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Volcanic effects on climate

Volcanic eruptions which inject large amounts of sulfur-rich gas into the stratosphere produce dust veils which last years and cool the earth's surface. At the same time, these dust veils absorb enough solar radiation to warm the stratosphere. Since these temperature changes at the earth's surface and in the stratosphere are both in the opposite direction of hypothesized effects from greenhouse gases, they act to delay and mask the detection of greenhouse effects on the climate system. Tantalizing recent research results have suggested regional effects of volcanic eruptions, including effects on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, a large portion of the global climate change of the past 100 years may be due to the effects of volcanoes, but a definite answer is not yet clear. While effects of several years were demonstrated with both data studies and numerical models, long-term effects, while found in climate model calculations, await confirmation with more realistic models. Extremely large explosive prehistoric eruptions may have produced severe weather and climate effects, sometimes called a 'volcanic winter'. Complete understanding of the above effects of volcanoes is hampered by inadequacies of data sets on volcanic dust veils and on climate change. Space observations can play an increasingly important role in an observing program in the future. The effects of volcanoes are not adequately separated from ENSO events, and climate modeling of the effects of volcanoes is in its infancy. Specific suggestions are made for future work to improve the knowledge of this important component of the climate system.

Robock, Alan↗

A phase transition for finding needles in nonlinear haystacks with LASSO artificial neural networks

To fit sparse linear associations, a LASSO sparsity inducing penalty with a single hyperparameter provably allows to recover the important features (needles) with high probability in certain regimes even if the sample size is smaller than the dimension of the input vector (haystack). More recently learners known as artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown great successes in many machine learning tasks, in particular fitting nonlinear associations. Small learning rate, stochastic gradient descent algorithm and large training set help to cope with the explosion in the number of parameters present in deep neural networks. Yet few ANN learners have been developed and studied to find needles in nonlinear haystacks. Driven by a single hyperparameter, our ANN learner, like for sparse linear associations, exhibits a phase transition in the probability of retrieving the needles, which we do not observe with other ANN learners. To select our penalty parameter, we generalize the universal threshold of Donoho and Johnstone (Biometrika 81(3):425–455, 1994) which is a better rule than the conservative (too many false detections) and expensive cross-validation. In the spirit of simulated annealing, we propose a warm-start sparsity inducing algorithm to solve the high-dimensional, non-convex and non-differentiable optimization problem. We perform simulated and real data Monte Carlo experiments to quantify the effectiveness of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Chandra ACIS Observation of the X-ray Luminous SN 1988Z

SN 1988Z is the most luminous X-ray-emitting supernova, initially detected in 1995 using the ROSAT HRI with the luminosity of approx. 8x10(exp 40) erg/s . Its high luminosity was ascribed to expansion of the blast wave into an especially dense circumstellar medium. In this paper, we describe a recent observation of SN 1988Z using the ACIS detector on CHANDRA. We readily detect SN 1988Z, obtaining approx. 30 net counts which corresponds to a 0.2-2.0 keV luminosity of approx. 3.2x10(exp 39) erg/s. The calculated quantiles for the extracted counts allow a broad range of temperatures, but require a temperature hotter than 5 keV if there is no intrinsic absorption. The X-ray luminosity indicates that the emitting region has a high density (>10(exp 5)/cu cm)and that the density profile is not consistent with a constant mass loss stellar wind during the approx. 5,000 years before the explosion. If the circumstellar medium is due to progenitor mass loss, then the mass loss rate is extremely high (approx.10(exp -3) Solar Mass/yr(V(sub omega)/10 km/s)). The X-ray results are compared with the predictions of models of SN 1988Z.

Schlegel, Eric M.↗

A PIPS + SrI 2 (Eu) detector for atmospheric radioxenon monitoring

The PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is a prototype atmospheric radioxenon detection system designed at Oregon State University in support of international efforts towards monitoring clandestine nuclear weapon testing activities. This detector aims to address some shortcomings found in currently deployed beta–gamma atmospheric radioxenon detection systems, such as lackluster energy resolution and memory effect, by employing modern detection materials and readout. The system uses a PIPSBox, a silicon-based gas cell, for electron detection, and a pair of ultrabright, D-shaped SrI 2 (Eu) scintillators coupled to silicon photomultipliers for photon detection. A custom eight-channel digital pulse processor equipped with a field programmable gate-array (FPGA) identifies electron–photon coincidences between the volumes in near real-time. Gas samples of the four radioxenon isotopes of interest were independently measured with the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) detection system to determine energy resolution and efficiency. Application of FPGA-based coincidence discrimination in near real-time reduced the ambient background count rate by 95.85 ± 0.04%. Using parameters from the Xenon International gas processing unit and assuming a blank sample and zero memory effect the minimum detectable concentrations (MDCs) for the isotopes were calculated to be 0.12 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.05, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 1.00 ± 0.08 mBq/m 3 air for 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe, respectively. These MDC estimates compare well with other radioxenon detection systems employed in the International Monitoring System (IMS) and indicate that the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is in compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO) sensitivity requirement of ≤ 1 mBq/m 3 for 133 Xe.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Precision Synthesis of Conjugated Polymer Films by Surface-Confined Stepwise Sonogashira Cross-Coupling

Thin films of poly(arylene ethynylene)-conjugated polymers, including low-energy-gap donor–acceptor polymers, can be prepared via stepwise polymerization utilizing surface-confined Sonogashira cross-coupling. This robust and efficient polymerization protocol yields conjugated polymers with a precise molecular structure and with nanometer-level control of the organization and the uniform alignment of the macromolecular chains in the densely packed film. In addition to high stability and predictable and well-defined molecular organization and morphology, the surface-confined conjugated polymer chains experience significant interchain electronic interactions, resulting in dominating intermolecular π-electron delocalization which is primarily responsible for the electronic and spectroscopic properties of polymer films. The fluorescent films demonstrate remarkable performance in chemosensing applications, showing a turn-off fluorescent response on the sub-ppt (part per trillion) level of nitroaromatic explosives in water. This unique sensitivity is likely related to the enhanced exciton mobility in the uniformly aligned and structurally monodisperse polymer films.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stellar population and metal production in AGN discs

ABSTRACT As gravitational wave detections increase the number of observed compact binaries (consisting of neutron stars or blacks), we begin to probe the different conditions producing these binaries. Most studies of compact remnant formation focus either on stellar collapse from the evolution of field binary stars in gas-free environments or on the formation of stars in clusters where dynamical interactions capture the compact objects, forming binaries. But a third scenario exists. In this paper, we study the fate of massive stars formed, accrete gas, and evolve in the dense discs surrounding supermassive black holes. We calculate the explosions produced and compact objects formed by the collapse of these massive stars. Nucleosynthetic yields may provide an ideal, directly observable, diagnostic of the formation and fate of these stars in active galactic nuclei. We present a first study of the explosive yields from these stars, comparing these yields with the observed nucleosynthetic signatures in the discs around supermassive stars with quasars. We show that, even though these stars tend to form black holes, their rapid rotation leads to discs that can eject a considerable amount of iron during the collapse of the star. The nucleosynthetic yields from these stars can produce constraints on the number of systems formed in this manner, but further work is needed to exploit variations from the initial models presented in this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-Ray Emission from an Asymmetric Blast Wave and a Massive White Dwarf in the Gamma Ray Emitting Nova V407 CYG

Classical nova events in symbiotic stars, although rare, offer a unique opportunity to probe the interaction between ejecta and a dense environment in stellar explosions. In this work, we use X-ray data obtained with Swift and Suzaku during the recent classical nova outburst in V407 Cyg to explore such an interaction. We find evidence of both equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization plasmas at the time of peak X-ray brightness, indicating a strong asymmetry in the density of the emitting region. Comparing a simple model to the data, we find that the X-ray evolution is broadly consistent with nova ejecta driving a forward shock into the dense wind of the Mira companion. We detect a highly absorbed soft X-ray component in the spectrum during the first 50 days of the outburst that is consistent with supersoft emission from the nuclear burning white dwarf. The high temperature and short turn off time of this emission component, in addition to the observed breaks in the optical and UV lightcurves, indicate that the white dwarf in the binary is extremely massive. Finally, we explore the connections between the X-ray and GeV-ray evolution, and propose that the gamma ray turn-off is due to the stalling of the forward shock as the ejecta reach the red giant surface.

Nelson, Thomas↗

Multiple giant eruptions and X-ray emission in the recoiling AGN/LBV candidate SDSS1133

We present a comprehensive analysis of 20 yr worth of multicolour photometric light curves, multiepoch optical spectra, and X-ray data of an off-nuclear variable object SDSS1133 in Mrk 177 at z = 0.0079. The UV-optical light curves reveal that SDSS1133 experienced four outbursts in 2001, 2014, 2019, and 2021. The persistent UV-optical luminosity in the non-outbursting state is ~1041 erg s -1 with small-scale flux variations, and peak luminosities during the outbursts reach ~10 42 erg s -1 . The optical spectra exhibit enduring broad hydrogen Balmer P-Cygni profiles with the absorption minimum at ~-2000 km s -1 , indicating the presence of fast-moving ejecta. Chandra detected weak X-ray emission at a 0.3-10-keV luminosity of L X = 4 × 10 38 erg s -1 after the 2019 outburst. These lines of evidence suggests that SDSS1133 is an extreme luminous blue variable (LBV) star experiencing multiple giant eruptions with interactions of the ejected shell with different shells and/or circumstellar medium (CSM), and disfavours the recoiling active galactic nuclei scenario suggested in the literature. We suggest that pulsational pair-instability may provide a viable explanation for the multiple energetic eruptions in SDSS1133. If the current activity of SDSS1133 is a precursor of a supernova explosion, we may be able to observe a few additional giant eruptions and then the terminal supernova explosion or collapse to a massive black hole in future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploiting correlations in multi-coincidence Coulomb explosion patterns for differentiating molecular structures using machine learning

Coulomb explosion imaging (CEI) is a powerful technique for capturing the real-time motion of individual atoms during ultrafast photochemical reactions. CEI generates high-dimensional data with naturally embedded correlations that allow mapping the coordinated motion of nuclei in molecules. This enables reliable separation of competing reaction pathways and makes this approach uniquely suited for characterizing weak reaction channels. However, rich information contained in experimental CEI patterns remains largely underexploited due to challenges in visualizing correlations between multiple observables in multi-dimensional parameter space. Here we present a new approach to CEI of intermediate-sized polyatomic molecules, detecting up to eight ionic fragments in coincidence and leveraging machine-learning-based analysis to identify patterns and correlations in the resulting high-dimensional momentum-space data, enabling robust molecular structure identification and differentiation. Our approach provides high-dimensional background-free data encoding exceptionally rich structural information and establishes an automated, scalable framework for extracting insightful information from the data. As a demonstration, we apply this method to image and distinguish dichloroethylene isomers, showcasing its potential for broader applications in molecular imaging. Our results pave the way for channel-specific analysis of ultrafast structural dynamics in chemically relevant systems, particularly for disentangling mixed reaction pathways and detecting contributions from weak channels and minority species.

Chemical Physics (physics.chem-ph)↗

IceCube-Gen2: the window to the extreme Universe

The observation of electromagnetic radiation from radio to γ-ray wavelengths has provided a wealth of information about the Universe. However, at PeV (10 15 eV) energies and above, most of the Universe is impenetrable to photons. New messengers, namely cosmic neutrinos, are needed to explore the most extreme environments of the Universe where black holes, neutron stars, and stellar explosions transform gravitational energy into non-thermal cosmic rays. These energetic particles havemillions of times higher energies than those produced in the most powerful particle accelerators on Earth. As neutrinos can escape from regions otherwise opaque to radiation, they allow an unique view deep into exploding stars and the vicinity of the event horizons of black holes. The discovery of cosmic neutrinos with IceCube has opened this new window on the Universe. IceCube has been successful in finding first evidence for cosmic particle acceleration in the jet of an active galactic nucleus. Yet, ultimately, its sensitivity is too limited to detect even the brightest neutrino sources with high significance, or to detect populations of less luminous sources. In thiswhite paper, we present an overview of a next-generation instrument, IceCube-Gen2, which will sharpen our understanding of the processes and environments that govern the Universe at the highest energies. IceCube-Gen2 is designed to: (a) Resolve the high-energy neutrino sky from TeV to EeV energies (b) Investigate cosmic particle acceleration through multi-messenger observations (c) Reveal the sources and propagation of the highest energy particles in the Universe (d) Probe fundamental physics with high-energy neutrinos IceCube-Gen2 will enhance the existing IceCube detector at the South Pole. It will increase the annual rate of observed cosmic neutrinos by a factor of ten compared to IceCube, and will be able to detect sources five times fainter than its predecessor. Furthermore, through the addition of a radio array, IceCube- Gen2 will extend the energy range by several orders of magnitude compared to IceCube. Construction will take 8 years and cost about $350M. The goal is to have IceCube-Gen2 fully operational by 2033. IceCube-Gen2 will play an essential role in shaping the new era of multimessenger astronomy, fundamentally advancing our knowledge of the highenergy Universe. Overall, this challenging mission can be fully addressed only through the combination of the information from the neutrino, electromagnetic, and gravitational wave emission of high-energy sources, in concert with the new survey instruments across the electromagnetic spectrum and gravitational wave detectors which will be available in the coming years.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Prevalent properties of gamma-ray burst variability

With the aim of isolating universal characteristics of gamma-ray burst variability, we compare time histories for 20 bright bursts detected by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (Fishman et al., 1992). Using an autocorrelation function method, we find that the durations of individual structures within a burst, as well as the burst as a whole, become shorter with increasing energy in most events. We introduce the skewness function, a measure of temporal asymmetry. We find that most bursts exhibit a net skewness, in the sense that the intensity rises more rapidly than it falls. Over short time scales, bursts exhibit no preferred asymmetry. Taken together, these properties suggest that the overall time structure of a burst is due to an explosive phenomenon in which the evolution is initially energetic and rapid and is later slower during a 'cooling' period. We cannot rule out the possibility that short time-scale variability is caused by radiation beams sweeping past the observer.

Link, Bennett↗

Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption phase on January 15, 2022, that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere and into the stratosphere. The stratospheric volcanic plume included aerosol precursor gases such as SO2 and H2S as well as anomalously high water vapor concentrations due to the submarine oceanic origin. With these atmospheric constituents, the sulfuric gases and water vapor formed sulfate (SO4) particles via gas-to-particle reactions and these aerosols likely increased in size due to hygroscopic growth within anomalously humid regions. Strong easterlies and gravity waves propagated the volcanic impacts throughout the stratosphere. Orbital and suborbital passive sensor retrievals detected changes in the aerosol and trace gas characteristics within the atmospheric column for cloud-free regions over the southern hemisphere. While the CALIPSO lidar can detect aerosol layers in the stratosphere, passive sensors such as MODIS retrieved the total column aerosol abundance and characteristics. Previous studies used manual tracking methods to determine volcanic plume positions and compared them to ground observations. In this study, we examine the machine learning (ML) approaches including segmentation, object detection, and object tracking to identify and track aerosol and trace gas plumes using orbital and suborbital sensor data. This ML implementation strives to provide a more systematic approach to separate total column effects from those of the stratosphere. Similar ML tracking may be useful for stratospheric impact events observed historically by CALIPSO and in the future with EarthCare and the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) lidar-capable missions.

Rhys Leahy↗