Volcanic effects on climate

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions which inject large amounts of sulfur-rich gas into the stratosphere produce dust veils which last years and cool the earth's surface. At the same time, these dust veils absorb enough solar radiation to warm the stratosphere. Since these temperature changes at the earth's surface and in the stratosphere are both in the opposite direction of hypothesized effects from greenhouse gases, they act to delay and mask the detection of greenhouse effects on the climate system. Tantalizing recent research results have suggested regional effects of volcanic eruptions, including effects on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, a large portion of the global climate change of the past 100 years may be due to the effects of volcanoes, but a definite answer is not yet clear. While effects of several years were demonstrated with both data studies and numerical models, long-term effects, while found in climate model calculations, await confirmation with more realistic models. Extremely large explosive prehistoric eruptions may have produced severe weather and climate effects, sometimes called a 'volcanic winter'. Complete understanding of the above effects of volcanoes is hampered by inadequacies of data sets on volcanic dust veils and on climate change. Space observations can play an increasingly important role in an observing program in the future. The effects of volcanoes are not adequately separated from ENSO events, and climate modeling of the effects of volcanoes is in its infancy. Specific suggestions are made for future work to improve the knowledge of this important component of the climate system.