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DOE OSTI2015

Analysis Insights, August 2015: Sustainable Transportation; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

NREL Analysis Insights mines our body of analysis work to synthesize topical insights and key findings. In this issue, we examine transportation systems, alternative fuels, and implications of increasing electrification of transit. Moving people and goods from point A to B has never been easier, but our current transportation systems also take a toll on our environment. Transportation currently accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum use and 33% of the nation’s total carbon emissions. With new technology, can we make our transportation system cleaner and more cost effective? NREL is applying its analytical expertise and imagination to do just that. Solutions start with systems thinking. Connecting the dots between physical components - vehicles, fueling stations, and highways - and institutional components - traffic laws, regulations, and vehicle standards - helps illuminate solutions that address the needs of the transportation system's many stakeholders.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS2020

Broadening JPL’s Mission Formulation Paradigm with Human Centered Design

Within NASA’s highly competitive environment for funding, Human Centered Design (HCD) and cybernetics could provide advantages to proposers during the mission formulation phase. Opportunities are limited when it comes to funding new science missions. Proposers are challenged to make a compelling case about the scientific desirability, technical feasibility, and resource viability of their concepts. Organizations follow established processes for proposal development using teams that typically include scientists, engineers, and managers. These team members are highly experienced subject matter experts (SME) in their own disciplines, and can respond to requirements from the solicitation. However, they are typically not trained as designers and communicators. Their approach is rooted within NASA’s science and technology paradigm. How can we improve the proposal development process, refine workflow between team members, and deliver clear and appealing offerings to the stakeholders and evaluators? These questions have been addressed by today’s most innovative companies (e.g., Apple, Google, 3M, Dyson), where the design process is not limited simply to engineering and management, but involves an all-encompassing approach drawing from fields such as social sciences, design, and the arts. Like these commercial enterprises, NASA currently employs systems thinking and integrated design, but can benefit further by moving beyond its current practices, which are mostly driven by rigid engineering, technology, science, and project management considerations. At JPL’s Innovation Foundry and through the Solar System Mission Formulation Office, we broadened this paradigm by including HCD in the mission formulation workflow. Our goal was to create a proposal with improved clarity and appeal, thus helping our team to communicate its message and aid evaluators with their work. In this paper we provide examples and lessons learned from our recent proposal development effort using HCD. We discuss touch points where we infused non-linear designerly approaches and cybernetic circularity into the workflow. Implemented design topics include operational design for team building; process design throughout distinct phases of the proposal development and writing process; communication design for streamlined exchange of information within the team and to stakeholders; interaction design; graphic design; and creating boundary objects. While these approaches may feel new or foreign to SMEs and managers in the aerospace community, they produced significant benefits in this mission formulation effort. We will describe how such approaches can be used to broaden NASA’s technology-driven paradigm through design, thus creating an environment which fosters innovation, improved communication, and strategic advantage for proposers and their organizations.

Turner, Neal↗

DOE OSTI2020

Document Management: A Focused Analysis on the Configuration Management Process at Y-12 National Security Complex

The configuration management process at Y-12 is a crucial process to ensure safe operations and compliance with Department of Energy (DOE) regulations and requirements. This process is evaluated utilizing systems-thinking methodology in order to understand the current operational flow, with the ultimate goal of building an easily understandable, representative model. This model offers insights on key areas of waste and provides a potential solution by modernizing rate limiting steps: a software implementation to update the traditional document management system and make it paperless. Stakeholders of the software implementation are identified in order to define characteristic requirements of an effective product and the anticipated benefit is evaluated. Ultimately, this project is an effort to increase the quality of life for all stakeholders, while improving the capacity, throughput, and effectiveness of a necessary process at Y-12.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry's understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.

bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Post Conference Activities for the NCSE 2019 Annual Conference: Sustainable Infrastructure & Resilience

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 19th Annual Conference from January 7-10, 2019. The NCSE 2019 Annual Conference: Sustainable Infrastructure & Resilience explored how systems thinking that includes tools, data, and synthesis effectively supports the increasingly urgent need to advance a more resilient, sustainable society. Nearly 600 participants from a range of scientific disciplines and sectors including natural and social science, humanities, engineering, government, business, and civil society attended the conference. Post-conference activities planned through this project were planned to extend the impact of the Annual Conference and were made possible through support from the Department of Energy. These efforts included: 1) developing and producing a research pilot on Energy Systems and Resilient Infrastructure, which advances research focused on the better alignment of education and workforce needs with respect to energy resilience; 2) facilitating dialogue and in-person convenings with the Energy Education Community of Practice across the broader NCSE research community; and 3) designing and hosting a webinar series focused on the role of science in infrastructure and resilience. This report summarizes the outcomes of the proposed activities and additional work made possible by support from the Department of Energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing interagency responses to wicked problems: A viable system model board game

Government agencies struggle to address wicked problems because they are open-ended, highly interdependent issues that cross agency, stakeholder, jurisdictional, and geopolitical boundaries. While both quantitative modelling and qualitative problem structuring methodologies have been used to support interagency decision making in the past, co-designing an effective interagency organization to collaboratively tackle wicked problems is more challenging. Few approaches have been developed to enable such efforts. This paper explains how the viable system model (VSM) was implemented through a board game, which was employed to co-design an interagency meta-organization that would be capable of more effectively collaborating to jointly address a wicked problem: international organized drug crime and its interface with local gangs in Chicago, USA. The board game was developed to make the VSM easier for the participants to learn, given that the cybernetic language and engineering-influenced diagrams in the original literature can be off-putting to leaders and managers. The board game was used as the final stage of a multi-method, systemic approach, which involved boundary critique and problem structuring as well as deployment of the VSM. The research findings indicate that the VSM board game, used as part of a larger mixed-methods systemic intervention, contributes to building trust in the value of systems thinking amongst the participants, and sets up a rich context for collaboration on multi-agency co-design. The game therefore offers significant promise as part of the co-design of interagency responses to wicked problems because it creates an embodied process for stakeholders to learn about the VSM. It also reduces the work involved in this learning. Thus, the game enables an effective appropriation of the VSM language and criteria.

Business & Economics↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - WBS 4.1.2.32: Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess current and/or prospective techno-economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions and their impact on the potential development trajectories of the bioenergy industry over time. Results from this project include identification of opportunities and constraints to industrial development, quantification of multiple metrics (energy, economic, environmental) and informing researchers, decision makers, and industry of the steps needed for a sustainable, nationwide biofuels industry. Analyses from this project enable the creation of a bioenergy industry by (1) inciting policy-makers to explore scenarios for nationwide biofuels production, identifying policy actions consistent with pathways for growth; (2) improving industry’s understanding of industry growth potential under different technology and investment conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, connecting students with careers that build the industry. One of the many modeling tools used in this project, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. We use models like the BSM to examine the implications of policies and incentives as well as their potential side-effects. The BSM uses a system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions and transitions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given industrial learning and the reaction of the investment community in the context of land availability, projected oil markets, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. Under expected market conditions, analyses using the BSM suggest that the biofuels industry may require significant external actions in the early years to thrive. Interventions that accelerate the industrial learning process (e.g. operation of pre-commercial and commercial facilities) have been identified as having strong influence in starting the growth of a commercial biofuel industry. Policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain in BSM foster the growth of the biofuels industry and production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The water–climate nexus: Intersections across sectors

Water security and climate change are important priorities for communities and regions worldwide. The intersections between water and climate change extend across many environmental and human activities. This Primer is intended as an introduction, grounded in examples, for students and others considering the interactions between climate, water, and society. In this Primer, we summarize key intersections between water and climate across four sectors: environment; drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene; food and agriculture; and energy. We begin with an overview of the fundamental water dynamics within each of these four sectors, and then discuss how climate change is impacting water and society within and across these sectors. Emphasizing the relationships and interconnectedness between water and climate change can encourage systems thinking, which can show how activities in one sector may influence activities or outcomes in other sectors. We argue that to achieve a resilient and sustainable water future under climate change, proposed solutions must consider the water–climate nexus to ensure the interconnected roles of water across sectors are not overlooked. Toward that end, we offer an initial set of guiding questions that can be used to inform the development of more holistic climate solutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solving the puzzle of Fe homeostasis by integrating molecular, mathematical, and societal models

To ensure optimal utilization and bioavailability, iron uptake, transport, subcellular localization, and assimilation are tightly regulated in plants. In this work, we examine recent advances in our understanding of cellular responses to Fe deficiency. We then use intracellular mechanisms of Fe homeostasis to discuss how formalizing cell biology knowledge via a mathematical model can advance discovery even when quantitative data is limited. Using simulation-based inference to identify plausible systems mechanisms that conform to known emergent phenotypes can yield novel, testable hypotheses to guide targeted experiments. However, this approach relies on the accurate encoding of domain-expert knowledge in exploratory mathematical models. We argue that this would be facilitated by fostering more “systems thinking” life scientists and that diversifying your research team may be a practical path to achieve that goal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Energy Efficiency Measures to Incorporate into Remodeling Projects

Energy improvements in a home are often approached as one concerted effort, beginning with a simple walk-through assessment or more in-depth energy audit and followed by the installation of recommended energy measures. While this approach allows for systems thinking to guide the efforts, comprehensive energy improvements of this nature are undertaken by a relatively small number of the households in our nation compared to more piecemeal remodeling efforts. Even when programs like the Weatherization Assistance Program and Home Performance with ENERGY STAR are considered, homes that have had a comprehensive energy makeover still represent a small fraction of the 111.1 million households. In this report, the U.S Department of Energy Building America Retrofit Alliance research team looks at the improvement of a home's energy performance in an opportunistic way: it examines what can be done to incorporate energy efficiency measures into general remodeling work and home repair projects. This allows for the possibility for people who would not normally pursue energy efficiency but will remodel their kitchen or re-side their home to improve their home's performance at the same time. There are challenges to this approach, not the least of which being that the work will take place over time in potentially many separate projects. The opportunity to improve a home's energy efficiency at one time expands or contracts with the scope of the remodel. As such, guidance on how to do each piece thoughtfully and with consideration for potential future projects, is critical.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Energy Efficiency Measures to Incorporate into Remodeling Projects

Energy improvements in a home are often approached as one concerted effort, beginning with a simple walk-through assessment or more in-depth energy audit and followed by the installation of recommended energy measures. While this approach allows for systems thinking to guide the efforts, comprehensive energy improvements of this nature are undertaken by a relatively small number of U.S. households compared to piecemeal remodeling efforts. In this report, the U.S Department of Energy Building America Retrofit Alliance research team examines the improvement of a home’s energy performance in an opportunistic way by examining what can be done to incorporate energy efficiency measures into general remodeling work and home repair projects. This allows for energy efficiency upgrades to occur at the same time as remodeling projects. There are challenges to this approach, not the least of which being that the work will take place over time in potentially many separate projects. The opportunity to improve a home’s energy efficiency at one time expands or contracts with the scope of the remodel. As such, guidance on how to do each piece thoughtfully and with consideration for potential future projects, is critical.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Nuclear Weapons Mission Area Workshop: Strategy Enablers from a Systems Perspective

A one-day workshop was held on April 14, 2016 to explore Nuclear Weapons Mission Area (NWMA) strategy enablers from a systems perspective. This report documents the workshop and is intended to identify initiatives, based on the workshop exchanges, and catalyze these initiatives to enable implementation of the NWMA strategy using systems thinking and methodology. Topics explored include Model-based Engineering, Enabling Viable Capabilities, and Enterprise Decision Awareness. The morning of the workshop featured Dr. Dinesh Verma (Stevens Institute/SERC) as keynote and during the afternoon attendees participated in three facilitated sessions on the topics. There were over 70 participants from about 40 departments across Sandia National Laboratories.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2003

Sensory Motor Coordination in Robonaut

As a participant of the year 2000 NASA Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, I worked with the engineers of the Dexterous Robotics Laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center on the Robonaut project. The Robonaut is an articulated torso with two dexterous arms, left and right five-fingered hands, and a head with cameras mounted on an articulated neck. This advanced space robot, now driven only teleoperatively using VR gloves, sensors and helmets, is to be upgraded to a thinking system that can find, interact with and assist humans autonomously, allowing the Crew to work with Robonaut as a (junior) member of their team. Thus, the work performed this summer was toward the goal of enabling Robonaut to operate autonomously as an intelligent assistant to astronauts. Our underlying hypothesis is that a robot can develop intelligence if it learns a set of basic behaviors (i.e., reflexes - actions tightly coupled to sensing) and through experience learns how to sequence these to solve problems or to accomplish higher-level tasks. We describe our approach to the automatic acquisition of basic behaviors as learning sensory-motor coordination (SMC). Although research in the ontogenesis of animals development from the time of conception) supports the approach of learning SMC as the foundation for intelligent, autonomous behavior, we do not know whether it will prove viable for the development of autonomy in robots. The first step in testing the hypothesis is to determine if SMC can be learned by the robot. To do this, we have taken advantage of Robonaut's teleoperated control system. When a person teleoperates Robonaut, the person's own SMC causes the robot to act purposefully. If the sensory signals that the robot detects during teleoperation are recorded over several repetitions of the same task, it should be possible through signal analysis to identify the sensory-motor couplings that accompany purposeful motion. In this report, reasons for suspecting SMC as the basis for intelligent behavior will be reviewed. A robot control system for autonomous behavior that uses learned SMC will be proposed. Techniques for the extraction of salient parameters from sensory and motor data will be discussed. Experiments with Robonaut will be discussed and preliminary data presented.

Peters, Richard Alan, II↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementing Artificial Thinking Autonomy with Model-Based System Engineering

Complex autonomous systems capable of successfully operating independently under ‘known unknowns’ and harsh conditions require paradigm innovation in modern development strategies. In the field of autonomy, developing a system-of-systems which can ostensibly think for itself in the face of ‘unknown unknowns’ is still a field of ongoing research. Maturing the systems architecting and modeling methodologies for developing henceforth named Thinking Autonomous Systems, which are verified with digital mission simulation, can potentially usher in the next generation of artificial intelligence for space exploration. The concept presented in this paper incorporates multiple Model-Based Systems Engineering and simulation methodologies combined as a new paradigm to design a novel, biomimetic thinking autonomy strategy. Anachronistic concepts from classical Kantian philosophy will be leveraged to inspire architectural designs that could be used for complex distributed systems in deep space. To accomplish this, digital transformation of a document-based implementation plan for Thinking Autonomous Systems, generated by experienced NASA software engineers, is implemented for NASA’s Platform for Autonomous Systems by creating descriptive and executable software models in SysML to prototype real-time operating capabilities. This conceptual implementation has been developed by incorporating model-based digital simulations to theorize how a cyberphysical thinking system would achieve specific strategies without crew reliance, while simultaneously being resilient to all operating conditions and remaining functional when devoid of ground communication. Additionally, ensuring that an autonomous system framework is an ethical Artificial Intelligence requires careful consideration of system behavior and accountability, human factors for teaming with a thinking autonomous system, and comparison to other modern approaches used for implementing true autonomy. This paper presents the first steps in formalizing the metacognition required for instantiating a truly Thinking Autonomous System; the approach described symphonizes autonomy characteristics from classical philosophical into a unified software architecture describing human thought. In the future, the foundational models described in this paper can be further leveraged to help advance research into thinking autonomy requirements for future deep space missions as well as for current near-term applications, i.e., living aboard crewed spacecraft like a NASA Gateway cislunar habitat.

Artificial Thought↗

NASA NTRS1989

Reactive behavior, learning, and anticipation

Reactive systems always act, thinking only long enough to 'look up' the action to execute. Traditional planning systems think a lot, and act only after generating fairly precise plans. Each represents an endpoint on a spectrum. It is argued that primitive forms of reasoning, like anticipation, play an important role in reducing the cost of learning and that the decision to act or think should be based on the uncertainty associated with the utility of executing an action in a particular situation. An architecture for an adaptable reactive system is presented and it is shown how it can be augmented with a simple anticipation mechanism that can substantially reduce the cost and time of learning.

Whitehead, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Psychophysiological Research Methods to Assess Airline Flight Crew Resilient Performance in High-Fidelity Flight Simulation Scenarios

New concepts in aviation system safety thinking have emerged to consider not only what may go wrong, but also what can be learned when things go right. This approach forms a more comprehensive approach to system safety thinking. A need exists for methods to enable a better understanding of human contributions to aviation safety and how they may inform Safety Management Systems (SMS). A high-fidelity 737-800 simulation study was conducted to study how current type-rated commercial airline flight crews anticipate, monitor, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected disturbances during line operations. A number of dependent measures were collected that included traditional SMS data types, but also non-traditional safety data to include multiple psychophysiological metrics. This paper describes the psychophysiological measures results that evinced the capability of measures to help identify resilient flight crews. Implications for future research and design of future In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems are discussed.

Psychophysiology↗