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DOE OSTI2020

LandRAY Final Report

The overarching Project objective is to demonstrate the feasibility of using an innovative Power Take-Off (PTO) Module, to be used in the Columbia Power Technologies, Inc. (C·Power) utility-scale wave energy converter (WEC). The PTO Module uniquely combines a large-diameter, direct-drive, rotary permanent magnet generator; a patent-pending rail-bearing system; and a corrosion-resistant fiber-reinforced-plastic structure. The rail bearing system allows for: • A flexible non-rigid and low-cost generator frame as compared to conventional machines. • A reduction of air gap and consequently lower cost electromagnetic design • Ability to reduce costs by increasing diameter to much larger dimensions, while maintaining the small air gap. • A direct drive electro-mechanical solution that is the fastest and most precise approach for responding to the dynamic variability of forces from wave energy. The land-based test of the PTO Module (DDP1) will provide an important risk reduction phase, to demonstrate the reliability and feasibility of a large-diameter, small air-gap generator that is capable of delivering high efficiency, fault-tolerance and relatively simple "at-sea" maintenance capabilities – qualities that are essential for cost-effective wave energy devices. This is the first known test of such a system.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Session 097A - Panel: Accomplishments and Update of the East Tennessee Technology Park in Oak Ridge, TN (1/4) (R1.16a)

This panel was deferred until 2021. The session was designed to highlight and celebrate the accomplishment of Vision 2020 at US DoE's East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Vision 2020 is the overarching strategy and guidance that have formed the foundation of success in closing one of the largest cleanup site in the DOE Complex. The session was supposed to feature representatives from the DOE Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management (OREM) and its contractor, UCOR, in exploring the partnerships and performance excellence that have made the difference in achieving success. OREM's Vision 2020 is a collaboration with entities that have made a difference in its success: economic developers, workforce developers, the University of Tennessee, and community partners. The vigorous Oak Ridge small business contracting community has also been instrumental in helping achieve success. This session plans to celebrate the entire process, its numerous players, and the spirit of accomplishment as the Oak Ridge community comes to realize the promise of 30 years of continuous cleanup excellence. This session integrated with panel sessions 97B, 97C and 97D. Panelists with presentations: Beyond Cleanup: Achieving Risk Reduction through Partnerships and Performance Excellence (Kenneth Rueter); Strategic Approach to Achieve End States at the East Tennessee Technology Park (Jay Mullis)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia

Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia. Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained—35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10–14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13–1.37) and 1.20 (1.02–1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15–19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41–2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71–4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries. Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Production of Biocrude in an Advanced Photobioreactor-Based Biorefinery

Algenol Biotech, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Georgia Institute of Technology, Arizona State University, and Reliance Industries formed a team to advance the state of the art in algal biomass production and downstream processing technologies, with the end goal of a sustainable, economically viable biofuel intermediate (BFI, biocrude) product. The project included examination of high value co-product production as a market entry strategy and for enhancing the economics of a biorefinery for BFI production. The project targeted innovations in biology, operations, and engineering. The goals of the project were: BFI productivity greater than 4,000 gal-BFI/acre-yr on an annualized basis; energy efficient innovations in downstream operations resulting in an energy expenditure less than 10% of the BFI energy content and a carbon footprint reduction of more than 60% compared to fossil alternatives; and a comprehensive Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that identifies limiting factors for commercial viability of a photobioreactor (PBR)-based biofuel product. The project achieved the overall objectives. Strain development efforts led to the identification of a strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1166) that, relative to the previous best strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1), exhibited a ~10% increase in productivity under commercially-relevant cultivation conditions and also resulted in cultures with a >50% reduction in viscosity such that harvesting efficiency was improved; these results represent achievement of key project milestones. Progress was also made at NREL in altering the biochemical composition of algal biomass to improve the yield of BFI produced via HTL. These strain enhancements coupled with improved outdoor cultivation practices, including semi-continuous operation, increased areal biomass productivity by nearly 80% over the established baseline productivity. The annualized productivity achieved (26.8 g/m2-d), paired with HTL conversion yields realized at NREL and RIL (38% ± 2% BFI), translates to 4,100 gal-BFI/acre-yr, exceeding the FY20 BETO goal of 3,700 gal-BFI/acre-yr. Significant progress was also demonstrated in large scale PBR-based production system design, operability, and cost reduction. A 24,000-L production module comprised of 240 interlinked PBRs was constructed and successfully operated outdoors for over one year in Fort Myers, Florida. Aided by a state-of-the-art productivity model, the productivities achieved convincingly demonstrated scalability of laboratory results determined at the mL to L scale to large-scale outdoor operations exceeding 20,000 L. The system was used to cultivate Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina), an industrially-relevant cyanobacterium and source for phycocyanin, an approved blue food colorant that Algenol is developing as a risk reduction strategy for future biofuel projects and as a potential business opportunity. A key project milestone to develop phycocyanin extraction and purification technologies was achieved ahead of schedule, and product samples received positive feedback from potential customers. The production and downstream operations data generated in this project were used to conduct and refine Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments to provide research guidance for reducing the costs and environmental footprint of algal biofuel and co-product manufacturing plants. Several CO 2 supply scenarios for an algal biorefinery were identified as being capable of providing a large (>60%) reduction in carbon footprint in comparison to gasoline. The TEA assessments incorporated detailed comparisons of PBR versus open pond production systems, yielding a 3-fold higher areal productivity for PBRs and suggesting overall production cost parity for the two systems. The progress in this ABY2 project addressed many of the the barriers identified for the Advanced Algal Systems R&D Program and are directly relevant to achieving the established BETO goals associated with large scale biofuel production and cost reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Metrics for County-Level Resilience Ranking Using Entropy and TOPSIS

In the face of atypical weather events, power infrastructure failures, and limited resources for resilience investment, energy decision-makers need data-driven metrics to allocate resilience investments and maximize the reduction of power outage impacts. For state-level planning, for instance, ranking the resilience of each county is key to ensuring effective distribution of resources. In such cases, resilience for each spatial unit is multifaceted and is captured by a set of indicators (i.e., metrics) that can be combined into an overall score that reduces the complexity of power outage dynamics to a single decision metric. However, weighting of these indicators is often addressed by simplifying assumptions (i.e., equal weights) or semi-subjective methods that rely on user-defined weights that can introduce biases (e.g., weighted average score). Within the disaster risk reduction and resilience engineering community, a recurring challenge in multicriteria decision-making is the objective weighting of indicators for composite indices. To address this issue, we have leveraged a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) combined with an entropy-based weighting approach to calculated the integrated scores. This method objectively determines the importance of each metric, better discerns between spatial units (i.e., counties), and offers a more reliable ranking of counties according to their relative resilience attributes. By improving methods for integrating resilience indicators, our approach helps planners and decision-makers prioritize resources more effectively for more efficient resilience investments.

Bhusal, Narayan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2025

WRPS Hanford Update [Slides]

The purpose of this report is to coordinate with the staff from WRPS, the current contract holder for operations at the Hanford site to better inform design decisions for the Autonomous systems for Hanford waste tank handling project. The project goals are to support risk reduction associated with monitoring, inspection and mapping of Hanford tank underground pits and includes: 1. A pit mock-up demonstration of Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Autonomous Pit Exploration System (APES) technology, which has two configurations: A. The Autonomous Robotic Arm, which is a proposed collaboration with Florida International University (FIU) and has capabilities to visually inspect, monitor, map and conduct simple tool manipulation tasks in the tank pits, and B. The robotic crawler configuration, which has capabilities to deploy to the bottom of the pits and conduct closer and bottom-up visual inspections. 2. An Implementation Plan that identifies Hanford site-wide application of the INL remote robotics technologies to enhance the performance of the tank farm systems and the characterization of the waste they contain to mitigate risk and optimize the overall waste mission. 3. A first-of-a-kind environmental digital twin will be produced. Digital twins to date require permanently installed sensors in order to produce asset specific predictions. This project will use the intermittent signals during inspections from deployed sensors on robotic systems to produce the data sets used by AI/ML to enable predictions of issues on tanks.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Remedial effectiveness of a pond biomanipulation: Habitat value and concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls in fish

The fish and plant communities in a pond contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in East Tennessee, USA, were manipulated to reduce ecological and human-health risk associated with exposure to the chemical contaminants. We evaluated the success of the remedial action using a habitat valuation approach, as well as measuring PCB concentrations in fish. Risk reduction objectives included: alter the fish community to favor fish that do not resuspend, bioaccumulate, or biomagnify PCBs; stabilize contaminated sediments to improve water quality; and stabilize shoreline soils and enhance riparian habitat. Fish targeted for removal included gizzard shad, largemouth bass, and nonnative carp. Reduced PCB concentrations in fish have characterized the new bluegill-dominated community, although a weir-overtopping event led to the need for additional removals of gizzard shad and largemouth bass. Sunfish abundance is high, as was intended. Moreover, amphibian and waterbird diversities have increased in the years following biomanipulation, possibly owing to improvements in the riparian zone and increased structural (vegetation) complexity in both the aquatic and terrestrial environment. Thus, the remedial action has improved aspects of habitat value, and PCB concentrations in sunfish have dropped below the remediation level (risk-based target value) for this pond (1 µg/g in fish fillets or 2.3 µg/g in whole body fish).

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reviewing clinical considerations and guideline recommendations of C1 inhibitor prophylaxis for hereditary angioedema

Abstract Background Hereditary angioedema (HAE), a rare disease that is characterized by painful and recurring non‐allergic swelling episodes, is caused by the deficiency or dysfunction of C1 inhibitor (C1INH) protein. A comprehensive HAE management plan may require long‐term prophylaxis (LTP) in addition to on‐demand treatment to help “normalize” patients' lives so that they may fully engage in work, school, family, and leisure activities. Aim The main objective of this narrative review is to provide an overview of updated guideline recommendations specific to LTP of HAE and discuss clinical considerations and pharmacologic management options, with a focus on C1INH. Materials and Methods The authors reviewed relevant HAE literature for current recommendations regarding LTP and the role of C1NH. Results Acute HAE attacks are treated with on‐demand medication; however, there is a consensus that LTP should routinely be considered for risk reduction and prevention of future episodes. The 2017 World Allergy Organization/European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology guidelines recommend that all patients with HAE be evaluated for LTP routinely and the 2020 HAE Association (HAEA) guidelines emphasize that the decision to use LTP should not be based on rigid criteria, but rather should be based on individual patient needs. Both guidelines recommend C1INH as first‐line/preferred therapy for LTP in a range of patient types including adults, children/adolescents, and pregnant/lactating patients. The HAEA also recommends the kallikrein inhibitor, lanadelumab, as a first‐line option for LTP. HAE pathway‐specific agents for LTP have not been associated with notable safety concerns. Discussion Plasma‐derived C1INH has been available for 40+ years in Europe and impacts multiple targets within the HAE pathway. C1INH has been used for on‐demand treatment and LTP. A subcutaneous formulation of plasma‐derived C1INH is approved for LTP and produces functional C1INH activity levels consistently above the threshold needed for protection from HAE attacks. Other pathway‐specific options for LTP include the plasma kallikrein inhibitors, lanadelumab‐flyo and berotralstat, approved for adults and pediatric patients aged ≥12 years. C1INH is approved for adults and pediatric patients aged ≥6 years. Conclusion Assessing the need for LTP is vital in the ongoing dialogue between clinicians and patients, as both disease‐related factors and patient preferences may change over time. Among available options for LTP, plasma‐derived C1INH is the broadly recommended first‐line option for LTP in patients with HAE, including pregnant/lactating women and pediatric patients (≥6 years).

Anderson, John↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic effects on flood hazards in a hyper-arid watershed: The 2015 Atacama floods

An unprecedented precipitation event in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile occurred in March 2015. Geomorphic alterations to the river channel and the coastal zone, coupled with the exceptional magnitude of the rainfall, caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel was altered both by tailings and urbanization. The consequences of this event resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with an unusual climate event. Lack of field data, complex geomorphology and sediment loads influenced by human activity make analysing floods in these regions especially challenging. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that control flood hazards by using numerical simulations to reconstruct the 2015 flood in El Salado. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits, considering high-resolution data of the pre- and post-2015 flood topography. In conclusion, the results highlight the importance of specific event-based studies, using models that can help designing better strategies for climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, while providing information for risk reduction and channel restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials assessment of the D/Li-stripping neutron source as a prototypical facility for fusion materials testing

As the US fusion materials community awaits the selection and design of a fusion prototypical neutron source (FPNS), a risk reduction exercise has been conducted to (i) provide an updated materials performance evaluation using state-of-the-art computational materials modeling, (ii) expand on legacy analysis based on pure Fe to other relevant fusion structural materials types, and (iii) ensure that materials response under FPNS operational conditions is consistent with referential fusion reactor conditions. The current paper describes the efforts undertaken to assemble a comprehensive computational methodology that includes neutronics, primary damage calculations, atomistic simulations of displacement cascades, chemical inventory evolution calculations, and a computational thermodynamic analysis of emerging phases during irradiation. Our work extends existing studies in pure Fe to reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steels, tungsten, silicon carbide, and vanadium alloys. We focus on the single-beam deuteron/lithium-stripping neutron source behind the IFMIF-DONES concept, which we assess against ITER, two DEMO designs, and an ideal pure 14-MeV flux. Our analysis indicates that, within standard uncertainties inherent to the models employed, the DONES concept adequately captures fusion conditions in the four materials analyzed. Our work is intended as a comprehensive irradiation damage analysis of fusion-representative neutron sources, to be used for further neutron source evaluation and fusion facility operation.

Marian, Jaime [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, C↗

DOE OSTI2022

The lay of the land: What we know about non-operating agricultural and absentee forest landowners in the U.S. and Europe

While non-operating agricultural and absentee forest landowners across the U.S. and Europe are an important group of landowners, our understanding of them remains relatively limited. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review on these landowners to encapsulate a current lay of the land in terms of what we know about these landowners and move the dialogue on this topic forward. Eighty-one articles are identified in our search of empirical literature. For each of the landowner types, we discuss their demographics and the three primary themes that emerged related to land management: participation in land management decisions, attitudes regarding land use and ownership, and resource needs in working with these landowners. For agricultural non-operating landowners, we find limited participation in land management decisions, particularly among women, a variety of individual and social factors play a role in involvement, and while they have pro-conservation attitudes, implementation of conservation practices is more limited. Absentee forest landowners we find are more willing to use management plans, yet less willing to engage in active management and risk reduction. These landowners have a range of attitudes regarding land use, with studies highlighting recreation, conservation, and profit motivations. In conclusion, our review concludes with identifying specific needs for more research and outreach on these landowners.

absentee↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluation of common cause failures in high safety-significant safety-related digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems. They are proven to be more reliable, cheaper, and easier to maintain given obsolescence of analog components. However, they also pose new engineering and technical challenges, such as possibility of common cause failures (CCFs) unique to digital systems. Here this paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) that is developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A methodology for evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs was developed as part of the framework. The framework integrates three stages of a typical risk assessment—qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analyses. The quantified risks compared with respective acceptance criteria provide valuable insights for system architecture alternatives allowing design optimization in terms of risk reduction and cost savings. A comprehensive case study performed to demonstrate the framework's capabilities is documented here in this paper. Results show that the PRADIC is a powerful tool capable to identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their impacts on system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Safety moments in chemical safety education.

Chemical safety education is a critical aspect of an integrated culture of safety in academic research settings. Showcasing best practices and sharing practical solutions for recognizing hazards and minimizing risks represent one way of reinforcing a research community's actions, attitudes, and behavior toward safety. For goals of improving chemical safety education with nonformal endeavors, safety moments are similar to 1-2 slides that focus on raising awareness and knowledge for routine safety issues in research laboratories. Intended to catalyze brief discussions at the beginning of meetings and presentations, these materials provide a proactive way for students and faculty to engage in open communication on diverse research safety topics across science and engineering. This commentary provides an overview of designing effective safety moments and tailoring them to highlight practical safety needs and considerations. Key components of model safety moment slides are presented, alongside centralized resources assembled by student-led laboratory safety teams, which can also be extended to posters, social media platforms, online videos, and other forms of scientific communication. Combined with both top-down backing from institution leaders and bottom-up support from student researchers, safety moments remain a low-barrier risk reduction strategy that is easy to implement, encourages local dialogue on safety, combats complacency, and holds potential for facilitating long-term improvements to academic lab safety culture.

Communication/Writing↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize’s pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize’s updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗