Engineering PapersSearch

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “risk minimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Orbital management and design considerations for NiCd satellite power systems

Several recently manufactured 50 and 60 ampere hour aerospace NiCd battery cell lots, produced by Gates Aerospace Batteries, are prone to premature on orbit performance degradation. The failure mechanism is cadmium migration, and the consequent development of soft shorts. A Martin Marietta Astronautics satellite program instituted an orbital management strategy for a set of these batteries that reduced the rate of degradation and brought the system to stable operation. This strategy involves: (1) minimizing the accumulated battery overcharge; (2) regular discharge exercises; and (3) periodic battery reconditioning. Because of changes in the NiCd cell manufacturing process, the actual performance of subsequent lots of NiCd cells is open to question. Future NiCd based power system designs should therefore allow for fine control of charge parameters, and an on orbit battery reconditioning capability. To minimize risk, it is much better to perform a full life test to qualify the cells before launch, rather than in parallel with orbital operations. If there are any changes in the manufacturing process of cells, it is extremely important to maintain very strong cognizance of secondary subcontractors, recognizing that the cell and battery manufacturing discipline is easily atrophied.

Tausch, Benjamin J., II

Project Freebird: An orbital transfer vehicle

Freebird is a space-based orbital transfer vehicle designed to repair and deorbit orbital assets. Freebird is based at International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) at an inclination of 51.6 deg and is capable of three types of missions: crewed and teleoperated LEO missions, and extended robotic missions. In a crewed local configuration, the vehicle can visit inclinations between 30.8 deg and 72.4 deg at altitudes close to 390 km. Adding extra fuel tanks extends this range of inclination up to 84.9 deg and down to 18.3 deg. Furthermore, removing the crew module, using the vehicle in a teleoperated manner, and operating with extra fuel tanks allows missions to polar and geosynchronous orbits. To allow for mission flexibility, the vehicle was designed in a semimodular configuration. The major system components include a crew module, a 'smart box' (which contains command, communications, guidance, and navigation equipment), a propulsion pack, extra fuel tanks, and a vehicle storage facility (VSF) for storage purposes. To minimize risk as well as development time and cost, the vehicle was designed using only proven technology or technology which is expected to be flight-qualified in time for the intended launch date of 2002. And, because Freebird carries crew and operates near the space station, it must meet or exceed the NASA reliability standard of 0.994, as well as other standard requirements for such vehicles. The Freebird program was conceived and designed as a way to provide important and currently unavailable satellite repair and replacement services of a value equal to or exceeding operational costs.

Aneses, Carlos A.

Composite chronicles: A study of the lessons learned in the development, production, and service of composite structures

A study of past composite aircraft structures programs was conducted to determine the lessons learned during the programs. The study focused on finding major underlying principles and practices that experience showed have significant effects on the development process and should be recognized and understood by those responsible for using of composites. Published information on programs was reviewed and interviews were conducted with personnel associated with current and past major development programs. In all, interviews were conducted with about 56 people representing 32 organizations. Most of the people interviewed have been involved in the engineering and manufacturing development of composites for the past 20 to 25 years. Although composites technology has made great advances over the past 30 years, the effective application of composites to aircraft is still a complex problem that requires experienced personnel with special knowledge. All disciplines involved in the development process must work together in real time to minimize risk and assure total product quality and performance at acceptable costs. The most successful programs have made effective use of integrated, collocated, concurrent engineering teams, and most often used well-planned, systematic development efforts wherein the design and manufacturing processes are validated in a step-by-step or 'building block' approach. Such approaches reduce program risk and are cost effective.

Vosteen, Louis F.

Recommended techniques for effective maintainability. A continuous improvement initiative of the NASA Reliability and Maintainability Steering Committee

This manual presents a series of recommended techniques that can increase overall operational effectiveness of both flight and ground based NASA systems. It provides a set of tools that minimizes risk associated with: (1) restoring failed functions (both ground and flight based); (2) conducting complex and highly visible maintenance operations; and (3) sustaining a technical capability to support the NASA mission using aging equipment or facilities. It considers (1) program management - key elements of an effective maintainability effort; (2) design and development - techniques that have benefited previous programs; (3) analysis and test - quantitative and qualitative analysis processes and testing techniques; and (4) operations and operational design techniques that address NASA field experience. This document is a valuable resource for continuous improvement ideas in executing the systems development process in accordance with the NASA 'better, faster, smaller, and cheaper' goal without compromising safety.

Source record

Modular transportable superconducting magnetic energy systems

Design and cost studies were performed for the magnet components of mid-size (1-5 MWh), cold supported SMES systems using alternative configurations. The configurations studied included solenoid magnets, which required onsite assembly of the magnet system, and toroid and racetrack configurations which consisted of factory assembled modules. For each configuration, design concepts and cost information were developed for the major features of the magnet system including the conductor, electrical insulation, and structure. These studies showed that for mid-size systems, the costs of solenoid and toroid magnet configurations are comparable and that the specific configuration to be used for a given application should be based upon customer requirements such as limiting stray fields or minimizing risks in development or construction.

Lieurance, Dennis

Training augmentation device for the Air Force satellite Control Network

From the 1960's and into the early 1980's satellite operations and control were conducted by Air Force Systems Command (AFSC), now Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), out of the Satellite Control Facility at Onizuka AFB, CA. AFSC was responsible for acquiring satellite command and control systems and conducting routine satellite operations. The daily operations, consisting of satellite health and status contacts and station keeping activities, were performed for AFSC by a Mission Control Team (MCT) staffed by civilian contractors who were responsible for providing their own technically 'qualified' personnel as satellite operators. An MCT consists of five positions: mission planner, ground controller, planner analyst, orbit analyst, and ranger controller. Most of the training consisted of On-the-Job-Training (OJT) with junior personnel apprenticed to senior personnel until they could demonstrate job proficiency. With most of the satellite operators having 15 to 25 years of experience, there was minimal risk to the mission. In the mid 1980's Air Force Space Command (AFSPACOM) assumed operational responsibility for a newly established control node at Falcon AFB (FAFB) in CO. The satellites and ground system program offices (SPO's) are organized under AFSC's Space and Missiles Systems Center (SMC) to function as a systems engineering and acquisition agency for AFSPACECOM. The collection of the satellite control nodes, ground tracking stations, computer processing equipment, and connecting communications links is referred to as the Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN).

Shoates, Keith B.

A Survey of Radiation Measurements Made Aboard Russian Spacecraft in Low-Earth Orbit

The accurate prediction of ionizing radiation exposure in low-Earth orbit is necessary in order to minimize risks to astronauts, spacecraft and instrumentation. To this end, models of the radiation environment, the AP-8 trapped proton model and the AE-8 trapped electron model, have been developed for use by spacecraft designers and mission planners. It has been widely acknowledged for some time now by the space radiation community that these models possess some major shortcomings. Both models cover only a limited trapped particle energy region and predictions at low altitudes are extrapolated from higher altitude data. With the launch of the first components of the International Space Station with numerous constellations of low-Earth orbit communications satellites now being planned and deployed, the inadequacies of these trapped particle models need to be addressed. Efforts are now underway both in the U.S. and in Europe to refine the AP-8 and AE-8 trapped particle models. This report is an attempt to collect a significant fraction of data for use in validation of trapped radiation models at low altitudes.

Benton, E. R.

Slow Strain Rate Testing of A537 Tank Wall Material

At Savannah River Site (SRS), High-Level Waste is stored in below-grade carbon steel tanks. This waste in part consists of sludge, salt cake, and/or supernate. Preparation of this waste for future processing involves dissolution of the salt cake layer. The salt dissolution process can create conditions that leave the carbon steel tanks susceptible to localized corrosion. The salt to be dissolved contains high concentrations of nitrate, that once released, create an environment that may be conducive to pitting corrosion and/or stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel. The salt dissolution process also liberates interstitial liquid trapped between the salt crystals. This liquid is initially high in nitrite and hydroxide concentration. High pH and greater ratios of nitrite to nitrate act as inhibitors to minimize corrosion of carbon steel in high nitrate environments. However, as dissolution proceeds, the concentration of nitrate will increase, while the hydroxide and nitrite concentration of the interstitial liquid will deplete and become insufficient to prevent the onset of corrosion attack. Tank blending and the addition of inhibitors are used to ensure adequate concentrations of hydroxide and nitrite. However, this is not desirable during salt dissolution as it can reduce process efficiency and increase the amount of waste that needs processing. This testing program was designed to examine the risk of SCC associated with utilizing the pitting factor (PF) and nitrite/nitrate (NO 2 - /NO 3 - ) ratio limits for handling dissolved salt solutions at an elevated temperature in the carbon steel waste tanks. The previously identified limits are a PF of 1.2 and an NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio of 0.15. The results indicate that as long as the NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio exceeds 0.1 and the PF is above approximately 0.8, there is a discernible safety margin between the open circuit potential (OCP) and the critical cracking potential (CCP) observed during applied potential testing. However, this margin, defined by the difference between the OCP and CCP, is relatively narrow, ranging from 0.1 to 0.25 volts. This small margin raises concerns about potential shifts in OCP during waste retrieval operations, which could inadvertently increase the risk of SCC if the OCP approaches or exceeds the CCP. These results confirm that dissolved salt solutions provide a potent chemistry that, under certain conditions, makes carbon steel susceptible to SCC. The next question to consider is the influence these results have on decisions for storage and retrieval of waste from the tanks. For Type III/IIIA waste tanks, the risk of SCC remains very low. First, and most importantly, the post-weld stress relief of the tanks has reduced the residual stress near the welds. Thus, without the stress component, SCC risk is minimized. The material of construction (A537 Carbon steel) for the Type III/IIIA tanks is superior to the steel in its resistance to SCC than the steel that was utilized for the Type I, II, and IV tanks (A285 carbon steel). From a chemistry control standpoint for a Type III/IIIA tank directly involved with handling dissolved salt solutions, the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio limits may be utilized wherein chemistry control provides an extra layer of defense against SCC. Chemistry control for a Type III/IIIA tank minimizes the risk for a tank that may receive the dissolved salt solution, particularly if that tank is a Type I, II, or IV waste tank. On the other hand, if the dissolved salt solution is handled by a Type I, II, or IV waste tank the risk of SCC is real. The potent chemistry, absence of stress relief, and inferior material result in a condition that is conducive to cracking. Efforts should be made to either avoid transferring waste that may not meet the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio criteria to one of these tanks or if it is unavoidable, take measures to minimize the consequences of a leak. As shown by these tests, even if the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio criteria are met, there is a risk that the tank potential may be disturbed in the positive direction and the risk of SCC increase.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Utility company views of geothermal development

The views of geothermal development from a utility company standpoint are presented. The impediments associated with such developments as required reliability and identification of risks are discussed. The utility industry historically is not a risk-taking industry. Support of rapid geothermal development by the utility industry requires identification and elimination of risks or absorption of the risks by other agencies. Suggestions as to the identification and minimization of risks are made.

Hinrichs, T. C.

Risk Assessment Considerations for Underground Hydrogen Storage in Depleted Gas Reservoirs

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted reservoirs presents a promising solution for large-scale energy storage as hydrogen demand grows. As the UHS industry emerges, robust risk assessments are critical to ensuring safe operation of the storage facilities and minimizing the risk of accidents. This work explores risk assessment protocols for underground natural gas storage (UGS) in depleted reservoirs and identifies key considerations for repurposing these facilities for UHS. By examining the differences in physical and chemical properties between hydrogen and natural gas, this work highlights new and modified hazards that merits a reevaluation of traditional natural gas risk assessment practices. This investigation synthesizes insights from previous literature reviews and interviews with UGS industry experts and operators to identify key areas for adapting risk assessment methodologies for hydrogen. The insights gleaned from expert interviews indicate that existing risk assessment standards are non-prescriptive, leading to diverse company-specific risk assessment methodologies requiring substantial additions to become practical. Due to a lack of concrete risk assessment requirements, experience, and relevant data, this uncertainty is expected to be magnified considerably when considering hydrogen. This study identifies several areas for potential modification of existing risk assessment practices that could be considered by those developing standards or performing risk assessments for UHS. Specifically, risk assessments may be improved by including risks unique to hydrogen in existing standards, changing the magnitude of different risk factors in existing risk assessment protocols, and improving methods of data collection and communication across the industry to address large areas of uncertainty.

08 HYDROGEN

Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight

Space flight produces a number of metabolic and physiological changes in the crewmembers exposed to microgravity. Following launch, body fluid volumes, electrolyte levels, and bone and muscle undergo changes as the human body adapts to the weightless environment. Changes in the urinary chemical composition may lead to the potentially serious consequences of renal stone formation. Previous data collected immediately after space flight indicate changes in the urine chemistry favoring an increased risk of calcium oxalate and uric acid stone formation (n = 323). During short term Shuttle space flights, the changes observed include increased urinary calcium and decreased urine volume, pH and citrate resulting in a greater risk for calcium oxalate and brushite stone formation (n = 6). Results from long duration Shuttle/Mir missions (n = 9) followed a similar trend and demonstrated decreased fluid intake and urine volume and increased urinary calcium resulting in a urinary environment saturated with the calcium stone-forming salts. The increased risk occurs rapidly upon exposure to microgravity, continues throughout the space flight and following landing. Dietary factors, especially fluid intake, or pharmacologic intervention can significantly influence the urinary chemical composition. Increasing fluid intake to produce a daily urine output of 2 liters/day may allow the excess salts in the urine to remain in solution, crystals formation will not occur and a renal stone will not develop. Results from long duration crewmembers (n = 2) who had urine volumes greater than 2.5 L/day minimized their risk of renal stone formation. Also, comparisons of stone-forming risk in short duration crewmembers clearly identified greater risk in those who produced less than 2 liters of urine/day. However, hydration and increased urine output does not correct the underlying calcium excretion due to bone loss and only treats the symptoms and not the cause of the increased urinary salts. Dietary modification and promising pharmacologic treatments may also be used to reduce the potential risk for renal stone formation. Potassium citrate is being used clinically to increase the urinary inhibitor levels to minimize the development of crystals and the growth of renal stones. Bisphosphonates are a class of drugs recently shown to help in patients with osteoporosis by inhibiting the loss of bones in elderly patients. This drug could potentially prevent the bone loss observed in astronauts and thereby minimize the increase in urinary calcium and reduce the risk for renal stone development. Results of NASA's renal stone risk assessment program clearly indicate that exposure to microgravity changes the urinary chemical environment such that there is an increased risk for supersaturation of stone-forming salts, including calcium oxalaie and brushite. These studies have indicated specific avenues for development of countermeasures for the increased renal stone risk observed during and following space flight. Increased hydration and implementation of pharmacologic countermeasures should largely mitigate the in-flight risk of renal stones.

Whitson, Peggy A.

Orbit selection and its impact on radiation warning architecture for a human mission to Mars

With the recent announcement of the discovery of the possibility of life on Mars, there is renewed interest in Mars missions, perhaps eventually in human missions. Astronauts on such missions are at risk to occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. These events can pose a substantial risk to the health of the astronauts and to the on-board electronics. Effective forecast and warning of these events could provide time to take steps to minimize the risk (retreating to a safe haven, shutting down sensitive equipment, etc.) Providing that forecast capability, will require additional monitoring capability. The extent of this architecture is sensitive to the orbit selected for the transfer to and from Mars. This paper looks at the major classes of Mars missions (Conjunction and Opposition) and sub-categories of these classes and draws conclusions on the number of monitoring satellites needed for each, with a goal to reducing total system cost through optimum orbit selection.

Non-NASA Center

Optimization of simulated high-field side lower hybrid current drive coupling using machine learning predictions of scrape-off layer density

Lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) is a potential source of non-inductive off-axis current drive (CD) for tokamaks. Although LHCD has been successfully deployed on a number of tokamaks, it is highly sensitive to the scrape-off layer (SOL) conditions local to the LHCD launcher. Large gaps between the launcher and plasma core, SOL turbulence, or edge density perturbations due to edge-localized modes can hamper CD or cause large reflected power. These coupling issues in part motivated the installation of an LHCD launcher on the high-field side (HFS) of DIII-D. On the HFS, the SOL is less turbulent and more controllable compared to the low-field side. This quiescence may result in more predictable edge conditions and thus a more predictable CD. Here, in this work, HFS SOL reflectometry measurements are predicted from global plasma parameters using machine learning models. The SOL predictions coupled with the full-wave simulation of the LHCD launcher allow for the prediction of reflected power, directivity, and arcing risk before the discharge. Launcher performance is then optimized using multi-objective Bayesian optimization, finding the shot parameters that result in an optimal SOL density that maximizes CD while minimizing the risk of arcing. The predictions and optimizations of LHCD performance are then accelerated using a surrogate model of the full-wave LHCD simulation.

Bayesian optimization

Cassini tour cost reductions

The original design of the Cassini tour violated the cost constraint for the mission operations and data analysis by more than 30 percent. This challenge was addressed by performing tradeoffs in order to establish a modified risk and performance posture for the operations organization. This new posture accepted more data acquisition risk with minimal impact to the mission objectives, and brought the operation costs to within the program's constraints. The methodology employed within the Cassini program in order to address the tour cost, risk and performance parameters is presented.

Duxbury, J. H.

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

A Sequential Model Predictive and Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Controller for Distribution System Outage Mitigation under Hurricane Events

This paper proposes a proactive outage mitigation framework for power distribution networks to withstand hurricane-induced disruptions. It leverages Model Predictive Control (MPC) to identify safe lines for proactive switching during hurricanes, minimizing the risk of cascading failures and voltage violations. The switching strategies optimized by MPC are sequentially integrated with a Deep Reinforcement Learning agent using the Advantage Actor-Critic algorithm, enabling dynamic line switching to maximize connected buses and minimize voltage violations in real time. Using a probabilistic hurricane model, the framework predicts line failures and adapts to varying conditions to enhance grid resilience. Simulations on the IEEE 123-bus system demonstrate its effectiveness in maintaining high connectivity and minimizing disruptions. Real-time testing with an RTDS confirms the practicality and reliability of the proposed approach.

Selim, Alaa [University of Connecticut]

A Privacy-Preserving Cyber Threat Intelligence Sharing System

Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) is a key resource for developing defensive strategies against potential cyber adversaries. Entities typically access CTI through open-source platforms, national agencies, or specialized commercial services. However, the bi-directional exchange of CTI is hindered by organizational trust boundaries, which complicate the sharing processes between entities and CTI providers. Centralized CTI services benefit from receiving suspicious cyber observables such as IP addresses, domain names, and email addresses from various entities. The aggregation allows for the correlation of widespread adversarial activities to enhance the alert and response mechanisms across the network of involved parties. Despite these benefits, openly sharing such observables incurs potential legal, regulatory, and reputational risks for the disclosing entities.This paper introduces a system designed to facilitate the secure exchange of cyber observables across trust boundaries without compromising the anonymity of the sharing entities. Here, we propose an architecture that leverages common web protocols alongside zero-knowledge proofs to authenticate members while maintaining anonymity. Additionally, we outline a privacy model tailored for STIX (Structured Threat Information eXpression) cyber observables to minimize the risk of inadvertently disclosing private information. Through our threat models, we assess the privacy implications of our proposed system and demonstrate its potential to enhance collaborative cyber defense efforts without exposing entities to undue risk.

BBS+ Signatures

Optimization of well design and CO 2 injection strategy for risk reduction in Class VI geological carbon sequestration wells

The safety and durability of Class VI wells are critical for geological carbon sequestration (GCS). However, current GCS operations face unique challenges: unlike traditional Class II wells, Class VI CO 2 injection wells operate at rates up to 100 times higher, dramatically increasing the risk of wellbore leakage and structural compromise due to severe temperature drops and associated mechanical stresses. Despite existing guidelines on material selection, there remains a substantial gap in understanding how rapid CO 2 injection rates, low surface temperatures, and variable reservoir conditions interact to threaten long-term well integrity. This study presents a comprehensive, original workflow integrating advanced analytical and numerical models for both well flow and well integrity analysis. By systematically simulating a wide range of field-relevant scenarios—including variations in injection rate, CO 2 temperature, and reservoir pressure—this work provides the first cross-validated assessment of cooling effects on wellbore. The results reveal that extreme temperature drops, up to 60 °C, can occur under high injection rates, particularly in depleted reservoirs, significantly increasing the risk of cement failure. Building on these insights, the study proposes innovative, practical well design and operational strategies, including ductile cement formulations, pre-stressing techniques, advanced insulation coatings, and proactive management of injection rates. The safety of Class VI well extends beyond simply using CO 2 resistant materials. Cement materials should possess optimal thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical properties for effective performance. This work provides a scientific basis for optimizing Class VI well designs, with direct benefits for minimizing environmental risk, lowering operational costs, and enhancing the long-term reliability of GCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE