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DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Local Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid-Scale Effects in Idealized Atmospheric Flows: A Deep Learned Approach Using High-Resolution Simulation Data

Abstract We introduce a machine learned surrogate model from high-resolution simulation data to capture the subgrid-scale effects in dry, stratified atmospheric flows. We use deep neural networks (NNs) to model the spatially local state differences between a coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation. The setup enables the capture of both dissipative and antidissipative effects in the state differences. The NN model is able to accurately capture the state differences in offline tests outside the training regime. In online tests intended for production use, the NN-coupled coarse simulation has higher accuracy over a significant period of time compared to the coarse-resolution simulation without any correction. We provide evidence of the capability of the NN model to accurately capture high-gradient regions in the flow field. With the accumulation of the errors, the NN-coupled simulation becomes computationally unstable after approximately 90 coarse simulation time steps. Insights gained from these surrogate models further pave the way for formulating stable, complex, physics-based spatially local NN models which are driven by traditional subgrid-scale turbulence closure models. Significance Statement Flows in the atmosphere are highly chaotic and turbulent, comprising flow structures of broad scales. For effective computational modeling of atmospheric flows, the effects of the small- and large-scale structures need to be captured by the simulations. Capturing the small-scale structures requires fine-resolution simulations. Even with the current state-of-the-art supercomputers, it can be prohibitively expensive to simulate these flows when computed for the entire earth over climate time scales. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the larger-scale structures using a coarse-resolution simulation while capturing the effects of the smaller-scale structures using some parameterization (approximation) scheme and incorporating it into the coarse-resolution simulation. We use machine learning to model the effects of the small-scale structures (subgrid-scale effects) in atmospheric flows. Data from a fine-resolution simulation is used to compute the missing subgrid-scale effects in coarse-resolution simulations. We then use machine learning models to approximate these differences between the coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. We see improved accuracy for the coarse-resolution simulations when corrected using these machine learned models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

MadNIS - Neural multi-channel importance sampling

Theory predictions for the LHC require precise numerical phase-space integration and generation of unweighted events. We combine machine-learned multi-channel weights with a normalizing flow for importance sampling, to improve classical methods for numerical integration. We develop an efficient bi-directional setup based on an invertible network, combining online and buffered training for potentially expensive integrands. We illustrate our method for the Drell-Yan process with an additional narrow resonance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hyperdimensional computing for image classification (HDC) v1.0

This is an implementation of the hyperdimensional computing technique to classify images. It consists of a python script that trains the system for a set of images from a set of images (dataset) specified by the user. This training produces hardware configuration parameters and description vectors that are then loaded into the hardware description part of the project. The hardware description consists of hardware described in Verilog (a well known language for this purpose) that is synthesizable and can be implemented in a real chip. This hardware received the training information generated by python, and then is able to accept images to produce answers for each image on which category (class) from the pre-=trained ones the image belongs to. The hardware and python training scripts are configurable and documented. The advantage of hyperdimensional computing is its robustness to errors and the easy capability for online learning (refining the training during inference slowly over time), which this implementation supports.

Michelogiannakis, Georgios [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online adaptive basis refinement and compression for reduced-order models via vector-space sieving

In many applications, projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) have demonstrated the ability to provide rapid approximate solutions to high-fidelity full-order models (FOMs). However, there is no a priori assurance that these approximate solutions are accurate; their accuracy depends on the ability of the low-dimensional trial basis to represent the FOM solution. As a result, ROMs can generate inaccurate approximate solutions, e.g., when the FOM solution at the online prediction point is not well represented by training data used to construct the trial basis. To address this fundamental deficiency of standard model-reduction approaches, this work proposes a novel online-adaptive mechanism for efficiently enriching the trial basis in a manner that ensures convergence of the ROM to the FOM, yet does not incur any FOM solves. The mechanism is based on the previously proposed adaptive $h$-refinement method for ROMs, but improves upon this work in two crucial ways. First, the proposed method enables basis refinement with respect to any orthogonal basis (not just the Kronecker basis), thereby generalizing the refinement mechanism and enabling it to be tailored to the physics characterizing the problem at hand. Second, the proposed method provides a fast online algorithm for periodically compressing the enriched basis via an efficient proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method, which does not incur any operations that scale with the FOM dimension. We report these two features allow the proposed method to serve as (1) a failsafe mechanism for ROMs, as the method enables the ROM to satisfy any prescribed error tolerance online (even in the case of inadequate training), and (2) an efficient online basis-adaptation mechanism, as the combination of basis enrichment and compression enables the basis to adapt online while controlling its dimension.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Cyber-Attack Detection for PV Farms via Time-Frequency Domain Features

The internetworking of grid-connected power electronics converters (PECs) in photovoltaic (PV) farms has inevitably expanded the cyber-attack surfaces. Here this paper presents a comprehensive study on cyber-attack detection and diagnosis for PEC-enabled PV farms via single waveform sensor to distinguish between normal conditions, open-circuit faults, short-circuit faults, and cyber-attacks. To our knowledge, this has not been attempted before. Firstly, we propose frequency-domain magnitude-based residuals to identify short-circuit faults and a time-domain mean current vector-based feature to distinguish open-circuit faults from other threats. These features can fully reflect the specific physical characteristics of PV farms during threat duration. Secondly, unlike micro phasor measurement units (µPMU) and raw electric waveform-based methods, the proposed innovative features can address novel cyber-attacks that are excluded from the training process. Thirdly, an online hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed using the OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator has verified the effectiveness. The monitoring system runs in real-time while using HIL as an operational solar farm and a National Instruments (NI) data acquisition card as the electric waveform sensor at the point of coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Real-Time Communication in Multi-Agent Systems: A Graph Neural Network Based Approach

Global connectivity enables effective coordination in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). Solving these connection problems under hardware constraints is an NP-hard non-Euclidean Degree Constrained Minimum Spanning Tree (DCMST) problem. Prior MAS controllers coordinate team movement for task completion and collision avoidance; some considering Line-of-Sight (LOS) maintenance but prioritizing flexibility over guarantees. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) have been shown to find good solutions for DCMST, but their performance degrades with larger populations required to support a large MAS. We present a method based on edge graph attention networks, trained offline to reduce online computation times. Empirical comparisons with greedy polynomial-time solvers and EA show that our method leverages latent graph information to consistently find constraint-satisfying solutions in less time.

connectivity maintenance↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptively Learned Modeling for a Digital Twin of Hydropower Turbines with Application to a Pilot Testing System

In the development of a digital twin (DT) for hydropower turbines, dynamic modeling of the system (e.g., penstock, turbine, speed control) is crucial, along with all the necessary data interface, virtualization, and dashboard designs. Since the DT must mimic the actual dynamics of the hydropower turbine accurately, adaptive learning is required to train these dynamic models online so that the models in the DT can effectively follow the representation of the actual hydropower turbine dynamics accurately and reliably. This study presents an adaptive learning method for obtaining the hydropower turbine models for DT development of hydropower systems using the recursive least squares algorithm. To simplify the formulation, the hydropower turbine under consideration was assumed to operate near a fixed operating point, where the system dynamics can be well represented by a set of linear differential equations with constant parameters. In this context, the well-known six-coefficient model for the Francis turbine was formulated as the starting point to obtain input and output models for the turbine. Then, an adaptive learning mechanism was developed to learn model parameters using real-time data from a hydropower turbine testing system. This led to semi-physical modeling, in which first principles and data-driven modeling are integrated to produce dynamic models for DT development. Applications to a pilot system at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) were made, and the models learned adaptively using the data collected from the university’s pilot system. Desired modeling and validation results were obtained.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects-Based Monitoring of Geomagnetically-Induced Current Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Geomagnetically-induced current (GIC) due to space weather can flow in the power grid causing undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, misoperation of protection devices, and potential blackouts. It is therefore important to monitor GIC in the power grid to improve online situational awareness and decision-making of system operators during a geomagnetic disturbance. To avoid the costly installation of GIC monitors at transformers’ neutrals, it is desirable to find correlations between GIC and already-monitored parameters. Hence, this work proposed the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to compute GIC amplitudes from learned patterns in the time-series data of transformer even harmonic currents. Using an electromagnetic transient program, GIC injection simulations were performed for a modeled Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) substation with two 504 MVA, 500/230 kV transformers. Data collected from these offline simulations were used to train the CNN to provide online GIC monitoring. Testing the CNN performance involved using real GIC measurements from published literature and from a physical GIC monitor in the DEV area. Finally, the results showed that the proposed method was able to provide GIC readings with a root mean squared error of 1.56 A/phase (equivalent to an average accuracy of 94%) for these real GIC waveforms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Industrial Energy Management During a Pandemic: Lessons Learned from DOE Better Plants Program Partners

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing many challenges for manufacturers, especially those that depend on workers whose jobs cannot be performed remotely. This has detrimentally impacted the energy management workforce, energy support system performance, as well as operations and supply chains.This article discusses four primary challenges for industrial energy management caused by the pandemic, strained budget for energy projects, increased energy intensity caused by low production rates and other safety practices, limited access to energy systems, and the lost knowledge and experience of senior staff. This article also proposes some potential solutions for these challenges that include implementing no- and low-cost energy conservation measures, adopting alternative financing options, improving shutdown procedures, reducing baseloads, creating an effective online energy-monitoring system, performing virtual energy assessments, building a robust EnMS, and attending online and in-person training events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2020

Video Summarization Using Deep Action Recognition Features and Robust Principal Components Analysis

In an instance where desired pre-defined actions, behaviors, or other categories are known a priori, various video classification and recognition models can be trained to discover those classifications and their location within the video. Absent that information, one might still be tasked with identifying interesting portions within a video, a process which—if done manually—is onerous and time-consuming as it requires manual inspection of the video itself. Recognizing high-level interesting segments within a whole video has been a general area of interest due to the ubiquity of video data. However the size of the data makes storage, retrieval, and inspection of large collections of videos cumbersome. This problem motivates the task of generating shortened clips highlighting the primary content of a video, relieving the burden of having to watch the entire video. This paper presents an unsupervised method of creating shortened clips of videos, enabling the rapid review of the most interesting content within a video. Our method uses features extracted from pre-trained action recognition models as input to online moving window robust principal component analysis to generate summaries. The procedure is tested on a publicly available video summarization dataset and demonstrates comparable performance to state-of-the-art in an un-augmented setting while requiring no training.

Claborne, Daniel M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

PMU Data Quality and Sensor Health Monitoring

Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) play a critical role in the evolution of the electric power industry by providing high-precision, real-time monitoring of essential power system metrics. However, effectively detecting abnormalities and critical events from PMU data is a complex task, complicated by intricate temporal patterns, a scarcity of labeled data for training algo- rithms, and constraints on online computational power. In this study, we apply TranAD, an innovative algorithm that combines transformer architectures with the refinement of adversarial learning, to both synthetic and real-world PMU datasets for developing a data quality and sensor online health monitoring platform for utilities. Our findings reveal that TranAD not only provides efficient detection and localization but also enhances the detail with which abnormalities are detected, marking a a significant step forward in the field of clean data acquisition processes for power system monitoring

deep neural network, machine learning (ML)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

DOE OSTI2021

RCT 4th Quarter 2021 Continuing Training Presentation Transcript

This quarter’s training consists of two parts, viewing this online lecture and completing the associated exercise guide. In this presentation, we will review the different requirements for performing radiation and contamination surveys at LANL and how to document them. The exercise guide is available on UTrain, and was also sent out for the quarterly notification for Continuing Training.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Machine Learning of Dynamical Systems for Efficient Bayesian Inference

Although the no-u-turn sampler (NUTS) is a widely adopted method for performing Bayesian inference, it requires numerous posterior gradients which can be expensive to compute in practice. Recently, there has been a significant interest in physics-based machine learning of dynamical (or Hamiltonian) systems and Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) is a noteworthy architecture. But these types of architectures have not been applied to solve Bayesian inference problems efficiently. We propose the use of HNNs for performing Bayesian inference efficiently without requiring numerous posterior gradients. We introduce latent variable outputs to HNNs (L-HNNs) for improved expressivity and reduced integration errors. We integrate L-HNNs in NUTS and further propose an online error monitoring scheme to prevent sampling degeneracy in regions where L-HNNs may have little training data. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring consider several complex high-dimensional posterior densities and compare its performance to NUTS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model↗