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Results for “grey-box predictive energy model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of Turbulence Models on Criticality Conditions in Swirling Flows

The critical state of vortex cores downstream of vortex breakdown has been studied. Base vortical flows were computed using the Reynolds-averaged, axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations. Standard K - epsilon , RNG and second-order Reynolds stress models were employed. Results indicate that the return to supercriticality is highly dependent on the turbulence model. The K - epsilon model predicted a rapid return of the vortex to supercritical conditions, the location of which showed little sensitivity to changes in the swirl ratio. The Reynolds stress model predicted that the vortex remains subcritical to the end of the domain for each of the swirl ratios employed, and provided results in qualitative agreement with experimental work. The RNG model produced intermediate results, with a downstream movement in the critical location with increasing swirl. Calculations for which area reductions were introduced at the exit in a subcritical flow were also performed using the Reynolds stress model. The structure of the resulting recirculation zone was altered significantly. However, when area reductions were employed within supercritical flows as predicted using the two-equation models, no significant influence on the recirculation zone was noted.

Robert E Spall↗
NASA NTRS2026

Model Correlation and Thermal Analysis of xEMU Boot at Lunar South Pole Temperatures

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis program plans to send astronauts to the lunar south pole, a region of the moon that is colder than previous lunar missions and low earth orbit operations. The spacesuit boots that will be used on these missions will be directly impacted by these extremely cold temperatures (down to ~50 K). To assess the performance of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) lunar boot in these extreme temperatures, the boot was tested at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in the Cryogenic Ice Transfer, Acquisition Development, and Excavation Laboratory (CITADEL) thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. This data was used to correlate thermal models to predict operational performance of the boots on the lunar south pole. This paper documents the data analysis, thermal boot model correlation, and operational predictions conducted using data from the xEMU TVAC test. Data from the test series was used to determine expected thermal conductances within the boot and between the boot and environment. These conductances were used to correlate a Thermal Desktop model of the xEMU boot across 10 different test points which varied external temperature, internal boot ventilation flowrate, and contact pressure. The correlated model was then used to predict operational performance in the lunar south pole. While the predictions indicate promising evidence for performance of the boots at the 100K test point, there is still substantial uncertainty in performance, particularly at the 48K test point. The results of this test series and model correlation stress the importance of improved testing for characterizing the expected thermal resistance between the outside of the boot and the lunar surface.

xEMU↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Correlation and Thermal Analysis of xEMU Boot at Lunar South Pole Temperatures

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis program plans to send astronauts to the lunar south pole, a region of the moon that is colder than previous lunar missions and low earth orbit operations. The spacesuit boots that will be used on these missions will be directly impacted by these extremely cold temperatures (down to ~50 K). To assess the performance of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) lunar boot in these extreme temperatures, the boot was tested at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in the Cryogenic Ice Transfer, Acquisition Development, and Excavation Laboratory (CITADEL) thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. This data was used to correlate thermal models to predict operational performance of the boots on the lunar south pole. This paper documents the data analysis, thermal boot model correlation, and operational predictions conducted using data from the xEMU TVAC test. Data from the test series was used to determine expected thermal conductances within the boot and between the boot and environment. These conductances were used to correlate a Thermal Desktop model of the xEMU boot across 10 different test points which varied external temperature, internal boot ventilation flowrate, and contact pressure. The correlated model was then used to predict operational performance in the lunar south pole. While the predictions indicate promising evidence for performance of the boots at the 100K test point, there is still substantial uncertainty in performance, particularly at the 48K test point. The results of this test series and model correlation stress the importance of improved testing for characterizing the expected thermal resistance between the outside of the boot and the lunar surface.

thermal analysis↗
NASA NTRS1993

Prediction of prompt NO(x) in hydrocarbon air flames

The gas turbine industry is directing particular attention to very low NOx combustors, whether for aircraft or land based CCGT systems. These low NOx combustors frequently use liquid fuels or natural gas burning under very lean premixed conditions with air or under rich-lean conditions, although only the first case is studied here. In land based systems, diluted steam or nitrogen are sometimes injected into the combustion chambers to reduce flame temperature. The NOx emissions from such systems are the product of three chemical mechanisms which are interrelated: the hydrocarbon prompt NO, the thermal NO (extended Zeldovich mechanism), and the nitrous oxide route to NO. Formation of NO2 from NO also occurs, as well as emission of carbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbons. When the fuel-oxidant proportion decreases towards leaner conditions, flame temperatures are lowered, resulting in the total NO being reduced and the thermal-NO contribution greatly diminished to the benefit of the remaining two mechanisms of NO formation. While knowledge of the elementary reactions and their chemical kinetics concerning methane and simple hydrocarbons combustion has existed for a number of years, its use for computer modeling is limited to simple flow dynamics configurations. Nevertheless, understanding of such combusting flows under a wide range of experimental conditions allows for analogies or speculations with more complex actual systems. Such understanding can be achieved by means of one dimensional laminar premixed flame modeling, with a full chemical mechanism which incorporates the three routes of NO formation. Complementary to this understanding is the modeling of the actual combustion system using a full description of the fluid dynamics coupled with a reduced chemical scheme, which is then compared against the first model. The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the relative importance of the three mechanisms of NO formation in lean premixed methane-air combustion with increasing pressure using the one dimensional plug flow package PREMIX, and to test the validity of a three dimensional model with a global chemical mechanism against the one dimensional model in the atmospheric pressure case. Methane is chosen because it is the only mechanism which is reasonably well known and is a good guide to the behavior of other hydrocarbons. The mixture ratio chosen is richer than that in lean gas turbines, but the combustion of this mixture with the low preheat gives realistic gas turbine final flame temperatures. Conditions of NO2 formation are also analyzed in the one dimensional model and results extrapolated to the case of gas turbines.

Valerie Dupont↗
NASA NTRS2026

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗
NASA NTRS2026

Improvement in the Thermal-to-Structural Model Mapping Process for Integrated Modeling for the Roman Space Telescope

Integrated Modeling has been a key component of verifying optical requirements for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST) that are either impossible or impractical to verify exclusively through ground testing. Two major areas for integrated Modeling are Jitter and Thermal Distortion that require the exchanges of model performance predictions across disciplines. In both cases, distortions are impressed on optical models to evaluate the impact on boresight alignment and wave front error. In the case of Jitter, the disturbances are driven by reactions to motions most often from actuators; however, in the case of thermal distortion, the motions are driven by thermal expansion or contraction as a result of changing temperatures. This then requires a link further upstream to the thermal model, which is used to predict the thermal performance and temperature gradients and stability. The process for mapping temperatures from a thermal model to a corresponding structural model has been performed numerous times through the RST project lifecycle, with improvements in the accuracy, verification, and effort sought throughout. This paper describes some of the recent improvements to the process, including: capture of the visualization parameters, automatic generation of the mapped images for both the thermal and structural model groupings, and reduction in the effort to assemble the full set of mapped temperatures. These upgrades have greatly reduced the manual effort associated with thermal mapping and allowed for faster turn-around of Integrated Modeling predictions.

Thermal Mapping↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRS2026

A Summary of Test and Analysis Results from a Second Lift+Cruise Full-Scale Drop Test

The realization of advanced air mobility markets is enabling new forms of transportation to take shape in the United States and around the world. Though currently in development, as these markets mature, new types of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicles have been undergoing development for use. There are many factors which must be addressed prior to these types of vehicles becoming viable alternative forms of transportation in these markets. These factors include incorporation into the existing airspaces, the logistics of operating in urban environments, along with numerous factors associated with safety and reliability. To address some of the safety aspects associated with the development of these new types of vehicles, NASA has been conducting research into the performance of an example electric VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft as a part of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) project. Over the course of this research, many aspects including the development of energy absorbing components, the evaluation of seating systems, the development of advanced finite element material model systems and the acquisition of full-scale vehicle impact data were investigated. The report will discuss aspects related to the acquisition of full-scale vehicle data which occurred in the form of a full-scale impact test conducted in the Summer of 2025. This test was on a NASA designed Lift+Cruise composite cabin test article and represented a partial capstone in the entirety of previous eVTOL research conducted for the project. In this test, a variety of experiments were included in order to investigate the effect of a full-scale environment on the experiment results. In parallel, the development of a computational impact model to simulate the full-scale test will be discussed in this report. A model of the Lift+Cruise test article was developed utilizing data collected from previous sub- and full-scale test data and then simulated in the current test environment. The model development, its use in pre-test predictions, and its use in post-test correlation will all be presented. This report will present the test data acquired from the Lift+Cruise test and document several of the results obtained. One intended result is to determine the effect of a complex full-scale crash impact on the identification of occupant injury risk within seat and vehicle designs. A second intended result is to determine whether high-fidelity models can be used with some confidence in the prediction of test events and can allow for additional test cases to be simulated without the need of having to conduct additional tests. The overall goal of the test is to provide the community with data that can be used for design, development or certification efforts, along with providing data on what an example eVTOL crash incident could entail.

energy storage systems↗
NASA NTRS1995

Transitional Flow in Thin Tubes for Space Station Freedom Radiator

A two dimensional finite volume method is used to predict the film coefficients in the transitional flow region (laminar or turbulent) for the radiator panel tubes. The code used to perform this analysis is CAST (Computer Aided Simulation of Turbulent Flows). The information gathered from this code is then used to augment a Sinda85 model that predicts overall performance of the radiator. A final comparison is drawn between the results generated with a Sinda85 model using the Sinda85 provided transition region heat transfer correlations and the Sinda85 model using the CAST generated data.

Patrick Loney↗
NASA NTRS2026

PROTECT: Production and Reuse of Thermally Efficient Ceramic Thermal Protection Systems

PROTECT (Production and Reuse Of Thermally Efficient Ceramic TPS) is a NASA Early Career Initiative focused on developing the next generation of reusable ceramic thermal protection systems (TPS). This project addresses key challenges in TPS design, including temperature capability, thermal stability, and refurbishment time, by integrating novel material development with predictive modeling. Leveraging enhanced capabilities in NASA’s Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software, PROTECT introduces new modeling tools to predict the thermal and mechanical behavior of fibrous ceramic materials. These tools enable accurate prediction of performance metrics such as thermal conductivity and structural integrity, reducing reliance on costly physical testing. Preliminary advances in these areas will be presented. To support model validation, PROTECT is building a comprehensive database of raw material properties using advanced characterization techniques, including micro computed tomography (CT) scanning in collaboration with the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). The presentation will detail the sampling workflows and analysis methods used to generate this detailed microstructural data and how it is used to develop improved models in PuMA. This multi-center collaboration, spanning NASA (JSC, ARC, KSC, GRC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, UIUC, and SpaceX, is developing tailored TPS solutions for LEO, lunar, and Martian missions. By bridging heritage systems with the demands of modern spaceflight, PROTECT contributes to the advancement of reusable TPS technologies for future exploration missions.

Propulsion, Refractory, and Coating Materials↗
NASA NTRS2026

Fuel Heating System Design and Thermal Modeling for Aviation Combustion Research

Aviation fuels offer substantial heat-sink capability that can be applied to aircraft thermal-management strategies and advanced propulsion-system concepts. Accurate control of fuel temperature is critical for understanding combustion behavior and supporting high temperature fuel experimental studies. This work describes the modeling and experimental validation of a portable, high temperature fuel-conditioning system designed for multiple NASA Glenn Research Center’s combustion facilities. The system utilizes a circulating-oil heating unit and modular tube-in-tube heat exchangers capable of conditioning Jet-A to temperatures approaching 600 K. A Thermal Desktop model was created to analyze heat exchanger configurations and predict performance across a range of operating conditions. Model predictions were compared with measurements collected in the CE-13C test facility, showing good agreement across the tested flow range except at low fuel flow rate around 2 kg/hr. Results provide guidance for sizing future fuel heating system for combustion research applications.

Jet fuel heating system↗
NASA NTRS2026

Beyond Melting: Amorphous Bonding for Joining and Consolidation

Crystallization may be the hidden constraint in thermoplastic composite manufacturing. It requires tightly controlled cooling, induces residual stresses through shrinkage, and introduces path-dependent behavior that complicates predictive modeling yet remains essential for structural performance. This work asks: can bonding be achieved without relying on melt-driven crystallization? To address this, thin (5–20 μm) polyetherimide (PEI) interlayers are pre-healed to slow-cooled polyaryletherketone (PAEK) in two contexts. The first, Thermabond®, is sub-melt joining of low melt-PAEK laminates. Results show that bond quality is governed primarily by processing (i.e., adequate healing and film handling) rather than modest changes in interlayer thickness. This concept is then extended to laminate-scale manufacturing through an architecture known as OATMEAL (Out-of-autoclave Amorphous/semicrystalline Thermoplastic Material for Energy-efficient Aerospace-grade Laminates). PEI is healed to carbon fiber reinforced polyetheretherketone (PEEK) at the prepreg and excess PEI is then ablated from the surface. Crystallinity is developed off-line during prepreg fabrication, while subsequent consolidation occurs below the melt temperature to preserve it. Cross-ply warpage experiments show that, contrary to intuition, repeated amorphous interfaces reduce global curvature by lowering the effective stress lock-in temperature and eliminating crystallization shrinkage from the lamina response. Correspondingly, laminate behavior is accurately predicted using classical laminate theory (CLT) with a single effective stress-free temperature, whereas conventional CF/PEEK requires accounting for crystallization-driven effects. By decoupling interfacial healing from crystallization, OATMEAL enables sub-melt consolidation, reduces energy consumption by up to 75%, and increases manufacturing throughput by fivefold. These results demonstrate that amorphous bonding is not only a joining strategy, but a pathway to more predictable and scalable thermoplastic composite manufacturing.

solidification↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development and application of a 3-D geometry/mass model for LDEF satellite ionizing radiation assessments

A computer model of the three dimensional geometry and material distributions for the LDEF spacecraft, experiment trays, and, for selected trays, the components of experiments within a tray was developed for use in ionizing radiation assessments. The model is being applied to provide 3-D shielding distributions around radiation dosimeters to aid in data interpretation, particularly in assessing the directional properties of the radiation exposure. Also, the model has been interfaced with radiation transport codes for 3-D dosimetry response predictions and for calculations related to determining the accuracy of trapped proton and cosmic ray environment models. The methodology is described used in developing the 3-D LDEF model and the level of detail incorporated. Currently, the trays modeled in detail are F2, F8, and H12 and H3. Applications of the model which are discussed include the 3-D shielding distributions around various dosimeters, the influence of shielding on dosimetry responses, and comparisons of dose predictions based on the present 3-D model vs those from 1-D geometry model approximations used in initial estimates.

B. L. Colborn↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Fracture Strength in Fibrous Thermal Protection System Materials

This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.

Jaehyun Cho↗
NASA NTRS2026

PROTECT: Production and Reuse of Thermally Efficient Ceramic Thermal Protection Systems

PROTECT (Production and Reuse Of Thermally Efficient Ceramic TPS) is a NASA Early Career Initiative focused on developing the next generation of reusable ceramic thermal protection systems (TPS). This project addresses key challenges in TPS design, including temperature capability, thermal stability, and refurbishment time, by integrating novel material development with predictive modeling. Leveraging enhanced capabilities in NASA’s Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software, PROTECT introduces new modeling tools to predict the thermal and mechanical behavior of fibrous ceramic materials. These tools enable accurate prediction of performance metrics such as thermal conductivity and structural integrity, reducing reliance on costly physical testing. Preliminary advances in these areas will be presented. To support model validation, PROTECT is building a comprehensive database of raw material properties using advanced characterization techniques, including micro computed tomography (CT) scanning in collaboration with the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). The presentation will detail the sampling workflows and analysis methods used to generate this detailed microstructural data and how it is used to develop improved models in PuMA. This multi-center collaboration, spanning NASA (JSC, ARC, KSC, GRC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, UIUC, and SpaceX, is developing tailored TPS solutions for LEO, lunar, and Martian missions. By bridging heritage systems with the demands of modern spaceflight, PROTECT contributes to the advancement of reusable TPS technologies for future exploration missions.

Propulsion, Refractory, and Coating Materials↗
NASA NTRS2011

Exploring the Model Design Space for Battery Health Management

Battery Health Management (BHM) is a core enabling technology for the success and widespread adoption of the emerging electric vehicles of today. Although battery chemistries have been studied in detail in literature, an accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm has eluded us. Current reliability-based techniques are insufficient to manage the use of such batteries when they are an active power source with frequently varying loads in uncertain environments. The amount of usable charge of a battery for a given discharge profile is not only dependent on the starting state-of-charge (SOC), but also other factors like battery health and the discharge or load profile imposed. This paper presents a Particle Filter (PF) based BHM framework with plug-and-play modules for battery models and uncertainty management. The batteries are modeled at three different levels of granularity with associated uncertainty distributions, encoding the basic electrochemical processes of a Lithium-polymer battery. The effects of different choices in the model design space are explored in the context of prediction performance in an electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) application with emulated flight profiles.

Saha, Bhaskar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OverFlight: Graphical Flight Operations Planning

OverFlight is an in-development graphical user interface (GUI) that implements a state-of-the-art rotorcraft maneuvering noise model using a source noise hemisphere approach coupled with the Aircraft NOise Prediction Program 2 (ANOPP2). This GUI stems from a demand for easy-to-use mission planning and community impact acoustic tools that can model the maneuvering flight of a rotary-wing vehicle. This paper covers the models used for the development of OverFlight and model validation efforts. Data from a joint NASA/Army flight test of an MD530F aircraft are used both for source noise hemispheres as well as maneuvering flight data. Analysis of the predicted maneuvering noise shows better agreement that traditional methods currently employed, while also demonstrating maneuvers where the underlying assumptions fail to hold.

rotorcraft↗