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49 records · Page 3

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NASA NTRS2003

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Real-Time Cloud, Radiation, and Aircraft Icing Parameters from GOES over the USA

A preliminary new, physically based method for realtime estimation of the probability of icing conditions has been demonstrated using merged GOES-10 and 12 data over the continental United States and southern Canada. The algorithm produces pixel-level cloud and radiation properties as well as an estimate of icing probability with an associated intensity rating Because icing depends on so many different variables, such as aircraft size or air speed, it is not possible to achieve 100% success with this or any other type of approach. This initial algorithm, however, shows great promise for diagnosing aircraft icing and putting it at the correct altitude within 0.5 km most of the time. Much additional research must be completed before it can serve as a reliable input for the operational CIP. The delineation of the icing layer vertical boundaries will need to be improved using either the RUC or balloon soundings or ceilometer data to adjust the cloud base height, a change that would require adjustment of the cloud-top altitude also.

Minnis, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2004

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Performance of Airborne Precision Spacing Under Realistic Wind Conditions and Limited Surveillance Range

With the expected worldwide increase of air traffic during the coming decade, both the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), as well as Eurocontrol's Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program have, as part of their plans, air traffic management (ATM) solutions that can increase performance without requiring time-consuming and expensive infrastructure changes. One such solution involves the ability of both controllers and flight crews to deliver aircraft to the runway with greater accuracy than they can today. Previous research has shown that time-based spacing techniques, wherein the controller assigns a time spacing to each pair of arriving aircraft, can achieve this goal by providing greater runway delivery accuracy and producing a concomitant increase in system-wide performance. The research described herein focuses on one specific application of time-based spacing, called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS), which has evolved over the past ten years. This research furthers APS understanding by studying its performance with realistic wind conditions obtained from atmospheric sounding data and with realistic wind forecasts obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) short-range weather forecast. In addition, this study investigates APS performance with limited surveillance range, as provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) system, and with an algorithm designed to improve APS performance when ADS-B surveillance data is unavailable. The results presented herein quantify the runway threshold delivery accuracy of APS under these conditions, and also quantify resulting workload metrics such as the number of speed changes required to maintain spacing.

Wieland, Frederick↗

NASA NTRS2011

Performance of Airborne Precision Spacing Under Realistic Wind Conditions

With the expected worldwide increase of air traffic during the coming decade, both the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA s) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), as well as Eurocontrol s Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program have, as part of their plans, air traffic management solutions that can increase performance without requiring time-consuming and expensive infrastructure changes. One such solution involves the ability of both controllers and flight crews to deliver aircraft to the runway with greater accuracy than is possible today. Previous research has shown that time-based spacing techniques, wherein the controller assigns a time spacing to each pair of arriving aircraft, is one way to achieve this goal by providing greater runway delivery accuracy that produces a concomitant increase in system-wide performance. The research described herein focuses on a specific application of time-based spacing, called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS), which has evolved over the past ten years. This research furthers APS understanding by studying its performance with realistic wind conditions obtained from atmospheric sounding data and with realistic wind forecasts obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) short-range weather forecast. In addition, this study investigates APS performance with limited surveillance range, as provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) system, and with an algorithm designed to improve APS performance when an ADS-B signal is unavailable. The results presented herein quantify the runway threshold delivery accuracy of APS un-der these conditions, and also quantify resulting workload metrics such as the number of speed changes required to maintain spacing.

Wieland, Frederick↗

NASA NTRS2011

Correcting Attenuation of Reflectivity in Terminal Doppler Weather Radar

This paper documents the implementation of the algorithm for correcting attenuations in the TDWR reflectivity, and examines the impacts of performing the correction algorithm on the accuracy of the resultant precipitation products on the basis of stage IV gauge-radar analyses over six storm events (four warm season events and two cool season events). Three primary findings are summarized below: 1. Correcting for attenuation tends to improve the overall bias, the conditional bias, and the correlation between the TDWR-based rainfall estimates and stage IV values regardless of season and correction schemes. 2. Attenuation correction is overall beneficial to the accuracy of resulting rainfall estimates for the warm season. By contrast, for the cool season, despite potential improvements in the bias and correlation, attenuation correction can be undesirable when there is clear evidence of bright band enhancement arising from low freezing levels. To elaborate, in these situations spurious high precipitation rates over the melting layer can yield elevated values in specific attenuation factor K, which in turn, may lead to an artificially higher reflectivity adjustment at farther range. 3. Ingesting 3-D spatially variable RUC temperature and imposing a temperature threshold in general tend to degrade the accuracy of corrected rainfall estimates for the warm season. For the cool season, in theory they would help avoid applying correction to areas within and above the melting layer. In practice, due to the variable depth of the melting layer below the freezing level, it is difficult to determine the temperature for the lower boundary of the melting layer a priori.

Ding, Feng↗

NASA NTRS2012

A New and General Formulation of the Parametric HFGMC Micromechanical Method for Three-Dimensional Multi-Phase Composites

The recent two-dimensional (2-D) parametric formulation of the high fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) reported by the authors is generalized for the micromechanical analysis of three-dimensional (3-D) multiphase composites with periodic microstructure. Arbitrary hexahedral subcell geometry is developed to discretize a triply periodic repeating unit-cell (RUC). Linear parametric-geometric mapping is employed to transform the arbitrary hexahedral subcell shapes from the physical space to an auxiliary orthogonal shape, where a complete quadratic displacement expansion is performed. Previously in the 2-D case, additional three equations are needed in the form of average moments of equilibrium as a result of the inclusion of the bilinear terms. However, the present 3-D parametric HFGMC formulation eliminates the need for such additional equations. This is achieved by expressing the coefficients of the full quadratic polynomial expansion of the subcell in terms of the side or face average-displacement vectors. The 2-D parametric and orthogonal HFGMC are special cases of the present 3-D formulation. The continuity of displacements and tractions, as well as the equilibrium equations, are imposed in the average (integral) sense as in the original HFGMC formulation. Each of the six sides (faces) of a subcell has an independent average displacement micro-variable vector which forms an energy-conjugate pair with the transformed average-traction vector. This allows generating symmetric stiffness matrices along with internal resisting vectors for the subcells which enhances the computational efficiency. The established new parametric 3-D HFGMC equations are formulated and solution implementations are addressed. Several applications for triply periodic 3-D composites are presented to demonstrate the general capability and varsity of the present parametric HFGMC method for refined micromechanical analysis by generating the spatial distributions of local stress fields. These applications include triply periodic composites with inclusions in the form of a cavity, spherical inclusion, ellipsoidal inclusion, discontinuous aligned short fiber. A 3-D repeating unit-cell for foam material composite is simulated.

Haj-Ali, Rami↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Scale Computational Modeling of Two-Phased Metal Using GMC Method

A multi-scale computational model for determining plastic behavior in two-phased CMSX-4 Ni-based superalloys is developed on a finite element analysis (FEA) framework employing crystal plasticity constitutive model that can capture the microstructural scale stress field. The generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model is used for homogenizing the local field quantities. At first, GMC as stand-alone is validated by analyzing a repeating unit cell (RUC) as a two-phased sample with 72.9% volume fraction of gamma'-precipitate in the gamma-matrix phase and comparing the results with those predicted by finite element analysis (FEA) models incorporating the same crystal plasticity constitutive model. The global stress-strain behavior and the local field quantity distributions predicted by GMC demonstrated good agreement with FEA. High computational saving, at the expense of some accuracy in the components of local tensor field quantities, was obtained with GMC. Finally, the capability of the developed multi-scale model linking FEA and GMC to solve real life sized structures is demonstrated by analyzing an engine disc component and determining the microstructural scale details of the field quantities.

nickel alloys↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Process-Induced Stresses in a Plain Weave Unit Cell

Woven polymer matrix composites (PMCs) are leveraged in aerospace applications for their desirable specific properties, yet they are vulnerable to high residual stresses during manufacturing and their complex geometry makes experimental results difficult to observe. Process modeling is needed to characterize the effects of the curing and predict end stress states. Finite element software can be used to model woven architectures, however accurate representation of processing conditions remains a challenge when it comes to selecting boundary conditions. The effect of BCs on process-induced stress within woven PMCs is studied. The commercial Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software Abaqus is coupled with user-written subroutines in a process modeling framework. A two-dimensionally (2D) woven PMC repeating unit cell (RUC) is modeled with TexGen and Abaqus. Virtual curing is imposed on the bulk matrix. The BC study is conducted with Free, Periodic, Flat, and Flat-Free configurations. Results show that the end stress state is sensitive to the boundary condition assumptions. Flat BC results show great agreement with Periodic BCs. Residual stress results from process modeling are then compared with a linear-elastic thermal cooldown analysis in Abaqus. Cooldown results indicate an overestimation in matrix stresses compared with process modeling.

micromechanics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Process Modeling of Woven Textiles

Woven polymer matrix composites offer numerous advantages over traditional unidirectional laminates. Processing conditions affect residual stress that builds up during manufacturing. This work proposes the analysis of three curing parameters on the local residual stress distribution of a plain weave textile architecture, including chemical shrinkage, the temperature cool down, and the evolution of matrix properties as a function of curing. Virtual curing is applied to the inter-tow matrix material of the plain weave Repeating Unit Cell (RUC) modeled in TexGen. Curing is implemented through user-written subroutines within the commercial software suite Abaqus. Results from process modeling are compared with a linear-elastic thermal cool down in Abaqus. A boundary conditions study is also conducted to compare the residual stress build up predicted by Flat(FBCs) and Periodic Boundary Conditions (PBCs). Preliminary results indicate that a thermal cool down over-estimates the end-of-cure stresses in the matrix. Process modeling is conducted with and without chemical shrinkage, then compared with a thermal cool down. Results show that 11.32% of the final stress state is due to chemical shrinkage. Material property evolution during curing also has a non-negligible effect on the end stress.

woven composites↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hierarchical Multiscale Process Modeling of A Textile Composite Y-Joint for the Aurora D8 Aircraft

Woven polymer matrix composites (PMCs) are widely used in aerospace applications for their favorable specific properties. However, the behavior of the inter- and intra-tow matrix during manufacturing of woven PMCs is difficult to isolate experimentally due to geometric and processing complexities. Classical closed-form homogenization approaches allow for composite thermos-chemo-mechanical properties to be characterized at any fiber volume fraction. In this work, virtual curing is applied to the inter- and intra-tow matrix materials of a plain weave repeating unit cell (RUC). Thermo-chemo-mechanical property evolution within the tows is calculated using the Concentric Cylinder Model (CCM) and the Rule of Mixtures (ROM). Curing is implemented through user-written subroutines within the commercial finite element method software Abaqus. Virtual curing results are compared with those from a linear-elastic thermal cool down simulation in Abaqus. Results indicate that tow property evolution during curing has a non-negligible effect on the final stress state.

curing↗