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At least 55 records · Page 3

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NASA NTRS2017

Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

Richardson, T. B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mega-Drivers to Inform NASA Space Technology Strategic Planning

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) has been developing a new Strategic Framework to guide investment prioritization and communication of STMD strategic goals to stakeholders. STMD’s analysis of global trends identified four overarching drivers which are anticipated to shape the needs of civilian space research for years to come. These Mega-Drivers form the foundation of the Strategic Framework. The Increasing Access Mega-Driver reflects the increase in the availability of launch options, more capable propulsion systems, access to planetary surfaces, and the introduction of new platforms to enable exploration, science, and commercial activities. Accelerating Pace of Discovery reflects the exploration of more remote and challenging destinations, drives increased demand for improved abilities to communicate and process large datasets. The Democratization of Space reflects the broadening participation in the space industry, from governments to private investors to citizens. Growing Utilization of Space reflects space market diversification and growth. This paper will further describe the observable trends that inform each of these Mega Drivers, as well as the interrelationships between them within STMD’s new Strategic Framework.

Grande, Melanie L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mega-Drivers to Inform NASA Space Technology Strategic Planning

Melanie L Grande↗

NASA NTRS2022

Investigation of the Drivers and Atmospheric Impacts of Energetic Electron Precipitation

The drivers and atmospheric impacts of energetic electron precipitation are not yet well understood. Further, electron precipitation is often poorly represented in atmospheric modeling. Additional investigations of the drivers and impacts of electron precipitation are needed to improve models and space weather forecasting requirements. To accurately represent the troposphere through the ionosphere in model simulations, it is vital to account for the chemistry accurately. Electron precipitation is a frequent, yet often ignored middle to high latitude forcing that can have dramatic effects on the middle and upper atmosphere. Over the past decade, several electron precipitation data sets have been developed, however, validation has been difficult due to the lack of independent observations of electron fluxes. Additionally, the limited number of satellites making measurements of global magnetospheric wave activity in concert with the resulting electron precipitation restricts our ability to accurately capture the drivers simultaneously with the precipitation. Accurate characterization of the drivers is needed for physics-based magnetosphere modeling. Likewise, accurate precipitating electron fluxes and relative energies are needed to improve our atmospheric modeling studies. Finally, in order to properly validate and improve our current modeling efforts, observations of atmospheric composition are necessary.

Joshua Pettit↗

DOE OSTI2025

(Un)Explained EMIC Waves: Understanding Quiet Time EMIC Wave Drivers

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are known to be generated through cyclotron resonance with the local ion particle population and grow when there is a large enough temperature anisotropy. In general, these temperature anisotropies necessary for wave growth are found to be associated with either solar wind pressure pulses or particle injections during geomagnetic storms or substorms. However, some EMIC events do not show any clear association with these known drivers and appear unexplained. In our analysis of high-amplitude (>1 nT) non-storm time EMIC waves, we find that 24 out of the 223 (~11%) EMIC events with peak amplitude greater than 1 nT were not found to be associated with any clear EMIC wave driver. This raises a compelling question: What magnetospheric or solar wind driver provides the free energy to grow these quiet-time EMIC waves? Here, we examine two EMIC events on 13 April 2017 and 13 February 2014, which were excited during extremely quiet solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of field and particle measurements from multiple data sets, including ground and in situ data for these two events, indicates that extremely weak and otherwise insignificant pressure values and/or very weak substorm injections occurring multiple hours before the event play a significant role in quiet time wave generation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disentangling multiple gas kinematic drivers in the Perseus galaxy cluster

Galaxy clusters, the Universe’s largest halo structures, are filled with an X-ray-emitting gas with a temperature between 10 million and 100 million degrees. Their evolution is shaped by energetic processes such as feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and mergers with other cosmic structures. The imprints of these processes on gas kinematics remain largely unknown, restricting our understanding of energy conversion within clusters4. High-resolution spectral mapping with the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observatory offers a way forward. Here we present XRISM kinematic measurements of the Perseus cluster, radially covering the extent of its cool core. We find direct evidence for at least two dominant drivers of gas motions operating on distinct physical scales: a small-scale driver in the inner approximately 60 kpc, probably associated with the SMBH feedback; and a large-scale driver in the outer core, powered by mergers. This finding suggests that, during the active phase, SMBH feedback drives gas motions, which, if fully dissipated into heat, could have a substantial role in offsetting radiative cooling losses in the Perseus core. Furthermore, our study underscores the necessity of kinematic mapping observations of extended sources to robustly characterize the velocity fields and their role in the evolution of massive halos. It further offers a kinematic diagnostic for SMBH feedback models.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neutron-producing gas puff Z-pinch experiments on a fast, low-impedance, 0.5 MA linear transformer driver

A study on the neutron production from single and double gas puff Z-pinches on the CESZAR linear transformer driver with ~0.45 MA current and 170 ns rise time is presented. Total neutron yield measurements made with a LaBr activation detector are compared for three configurations, using a double nozzle setup. When a single, hollow, deuterium gas shell was used, reliable implosions could only be attained at higher load mass than the optimal value to match implosion time with the driver rise time, with neutron yields of ~10 6 per pulse. The use of a double gas puff configuration with a deuterium center jet allowed a reduction in the shell density and operation closer to machine-matched conditions, recording up to (4.1 ± 0.3) × 10 7 neutrons/pulse when either Kr or D 2 was used in the shell. For a comparable mass and implosion time, using a higher atomic-number gas in the outer shell results in more unstable plasma surface and smaller plasma radius at the location of instability bubbles, which, however, do not seem to consistently correlate with a higher neutron yield. Comparing implosion dynamics with models and neutron yields with literature scaling suggests that the machine current is not well coupled to the plasma during the final stages of compression. Optimizing current and energy coupling to the pinched plasma is critical to improving performance, particularly in low-impedance drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

IsoDAR@Yemilab: Preliminary design report—volume I (cyclotron driver)

This Preliminary Design Report (PDR) describes the IsoDAR electron-antineutrino source in two volumes which are mostly site-independent and describe the cyclotron driver providing a 10 mA/60 MeV proton beam (this Volume); and the medium energy beam transport line (MEBT) and target (Volume II). The IsoDAR driver and target will produce about 1.15 x 10 23 electron-antineutrinos over 5 years while operating with the anticipated 10 mA/60 MeV beam at an estimated 80% duty factor. Paired with a kton-scale liquid scintillator detector, it will enable a broad particle physics program including searches for new symmetries, new interactions and new particles. Here in Volume I, we describe the driver, which includes the ion source, low energy beam transport, and cyclotron. The latter features Radio-Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ) direct axial injection and represents the first accelerator purpose-built to make use of so-called vortex motion.

Winklehner, Daniel (ORCID:0000000207156310)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗

NASA NTRS1972

The measurement of driver describing functions in simulated steering control tasks

Measurements of driver describing functions in steering control tasks have been made using a driving simulator. The task was to regulate against a random crosswind gust input on a straight roadway, in order to stay in the center of the lane. Although driving is a multiloop task in general, the forcing function and situation were configured so that an inner-loop visual cue feedback of heading angle of heading rate would dominate, and the driver's response was interpreted to be primarily single-loop. The driver describing functions were measured using an STI describing function analyzer. Three replications for each subject showed good repeatability within a subject. There were some intersubject differences as expected, but the crossover frequencies, effective time delays, and stability margins were generally consistent with the prior data and models for similar manual control tasks. The results further confirm the feasibility of measuring human operator response properties in nominal control tasks with full (real-world) visual field displays.

Weir, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Selection of shuttle payload data processing drivers for the data system new technology study

An investigation of all payloads in the IBM disciplines and the selection of driver payloads within each discipline are described. The driver payloads were selected on the basis of their data processing requirements. These requirements are measured by a weighting scheme. The total requirements for each discipline are estimated by use of the technology payload model. The driver selection process which was both a payload by payload comparison and a comparison of expected groupings of payloads was examined.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1978

The effects of alcohol on driver performance in a decision making situation

The results are reviewed of driving simulator and in-vehicle field test experiments of alcohol effects on driver risk taking. The objective was to investigate changes in risk taking under alcoholic intoxication and relate these changes to effects on traffic safety. The experiments involved complex 15 minute driving scenarios requiring decision making and steering and speed control throughout a series of typical driving situations. Monetary rewards and penalties were employed to simulate the real-world motivations inherent in driving. A full placebo experimental design was employed, and measures related to traffic safety, driver/vehicle performance and driver behavior were obtained. Alcohol impairment was found to increase the rate of accidents and speeding tickets. Behavioral measures showed these traffic safety effects to be due to impaired psychomotor performance and perceptual distortions. Subjective estimates of risk failed to show any change in the driver's willingness to take risks when intoxicated.

Allen, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A decision model applied to alcohol effects on driver signal light behavior

A decision model including perceptual noise or inconsistency is developed from expected value theory to explain driver stop and go decisions at signaled intersections. The model is applied to behavior in a car simulation and instrumented vehicle. Objective and subjective changes in driver decision making were measured with changes in blood alcohol concentration (BAC). Treatment levels averaged 0.00, 0.10 and 0.14 BAC for a total of 26 male subjects. Data were taken for drivers approaching signal lights at three timing configurations. The correlation between model predictions and behavior was highly significant. In contrast to previous research, analysis indicates that increased BAC results in increased perceptual inconsistency, which is the primary cause of increased risk taking at low probability of success signal lights.

Schwartz, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A control theoretic model of driver steering behavior

A quantitative description of driver steering behavior such as a mathematical model is presented. The steering task is divided into two levels: (1) the guidance level involving the perception of the instantaneous and future course of the forcing function provided by the forward view of the road, and the response to it in an anticipatory open-loop control mode; (2) the stabilization level whereby any occuring deviations from the forcing function are compensated for in a closed-loop control mode. This concept of the duality of the driver's steering activity led to a newly developed two-level model of driver steering behavior. Its parameters are identified on the basis of data measured in driving simulator experiments. The parameter estimates of both levels of the model show significant dependence on the experimental situation which can be characterized by variables such as vehicle speed and desired path curvature.

Donges, E.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Mass Driver Two - Cryogenic module

The cryogenic module of Mass Driver Two comprises a 3.25 inch (82.55 mm) OD bucket with two 44 kilo-ampere-turn coils made with .028 inch (.71 mm) diam niobium-titanium multi-filamentary cable in a copper matrix, impregnated with lead alloy for thermal inertia, as well as the service station to refrigerate, energize and eject the bucket. The station is housed in a six inch flanged pyrex cross which connects to the four inch pyrex tube of the mass driver itself. The bucket is refrigerated by being forced against a copper braid cradle attached to the bottom of a liquid helium reservoir which protrudes into the cross from above. The bucket is energized inductively by turning off two superconducting coils which are also attached to the helium reservoir, and which have maintained the correct flux linkage through the bucket coils during their cool-down through the critical temperature. Once charging is completed, the clamping pressure is released and the bucket is injected into the mass driver by means of two normal-conductor pulse coils surrounding the horizontal branches of the cross.

Fine, K.↗