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DOE OSTI2022

FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater characterization and monitoring at a complex industrial waste site using electrical resistivity imaging

A contaminated industrial waste site in Washington State (USA) containing buried, metallic-waste storage tanks, pipes, and wells, was evaluated to determine the feasibility of monitoring groundwater remediation activities associated with an underlying perched aquifer system using electrical resistivity tomography. The perched aquifer, located ~65 m below ground surface and ~10 m above the regional water table, contains high concentrations of nitrate, uranium, and other contaminants of concern from past tank leaks and intentional releases of wastes to surface disposal sites. The extent of the perched water aquifer is not well known, and the effectiveness of groundwater extraction for contaminant removal is uncertain, so supplemental characterization and monitoring technologies are being evaluated. Numerical simulations of subsurface flow and contaminant transport were performed with a highly resolved model of the hydrogeologic system and waste site infrastructure, and these simulations were used as the physical basis for electrical resistivity tomography modeling. The modeling explicitly accounted for metallic infrastructure at the site. The effectiveness of using surface electrodes versus surface and horizontal subsurface electrodes, for imaging groundwater extraction from the perched water aquifer, was investigated. Although directional drilling is a mature technology, its use for electrode emplacement in the deep subsurface under a complex industrial waste site via horizontal wells has not yet been demonstrated. Results from this study indicate that using horizontal subsurface electrode arrays could significantly improve the ability of electrical resistivity tomography to image deep subsurface features and monitor remediation activities under complex industrial waste sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vegetation Response to Rising CO 2 Amplifies Contrasts in Water Resources Between Global Wet and Dry Land Areas

Rising atmospheric CO 2 impacts on vegetation physiological processes can alter land feedbacks on precipitation and water resources, but understanding of regional differences in these changes is uncertain. We investigate the impact of rising CO 2 on land water resources for different wetness levels using four Earth system models. We find an overall tendency of runoff to increase across all wetness levels. However, runoff increases in wet regions are much larger than those in dry regions, especially in wet seasons. This substantial amplification of contrasts between wet and dry regions increases at 3% per 100 ppm increase in CO 2 relative to the historical period, reaching 18% for a quadrupling of CO 2 , quantified by a new wetting contrast index (WCI). Physiological effects suppress evapotranspiration more in wet than dry regions, which has a larger contribution than radiative forcing to the amplification of runoff contrast, reshaping the spatial distribution of future land water resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

The Hercules supercluster. II - Analysis

The almost complete sample of more than 150 redshifts for galaxies brighter than m sub p = 15.8 mag in a 28 square degree field in Hercules by Tarenghi et al. is used to examine the cosmography of a 60,000 cubic Mpc conical volume of space. It contains a supercluster of Abell clusters with a depth of about 100 Mpc, a vacant 'void' also with a depth of about 100 Mpc, and a structure wider than 12 Mpc which could be part of a more extensive system of small groups of galaxies. Properties of individual rich clusters in the Hercules supercluster are derived, but they are uncertain because the clusters merge into one another, so that it is difficult to identify them and their member galaxies unambiguously. However, those regions in Hercules containing the largest proportion of early-type galaxies show the least evidence for gravitational relaxation. A difference may exist between the luminosity function of clusters of galaxies and the luminosity function of the foreground sheet.

Tarenghi, M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space motion sickness

Space motion sickness clinical characteristics, time course, prediction of susceptibility, and effectiveness of countermeasures were evaluated. Although there is wide individual variability, there appear to be typical patterns of symptom development. The duration of symptoms ranges from several hours to four days with the majority of individuals being symptom free by the end of third day. The etiology of this malady remains uncertain but evidence points to reinterpretation of otolith inputs as being a key factor in the response of the neurovestibular system. Prediction of susceptibility and severity remains unsatisfactory. Countermeasures tried include medications, preflight adaptation, and autogenic feedback training. No countermeasure is entirely successful in eliminating or alleviating symptoms.

Vanderploeg, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper presents an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described in the paper.

Alag, Gurbux S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper represented an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described.

Alag, Gurbux S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

STS-40 orbital acceleration research experiment flight results during a typical sleep period

The Orbital Acceleration Research Experiment (OARE), an electrostatic accelerometer package with complete on-orbit calibration capabilities, was flown for the first time aboard the Space Shuttle on STS-40. This is also the first time an accelerometer package with nano-g sensitivity and a calibration facility has flown aboard the Space Shuttle. The instrument is designed to measure and record the Space Shuttle aerodynamic acceleration environment from the free molecule flow regime through the rarified flow transition into the hypersonic continuum regime. Because of its sensitivity, the OARE instrument defects aerodynamic behavior of the Space Shuttle while in low-earth orbit. A 2-hour orbital time period on day seven of the mission, when the crew was asleep and other spacecraft activities were at a minimum, was examined. During the flight, a 'trimmed-mean' filter was used to produce high quality, low frequency data which was successfully stored aboard the Space Shuttle in the OARE data storage system. Initial review of the data indicated that, although the expected precision was achieved, some equipment problems occurred resulting in uncertain accuracy. An acceleration model which includes aerodynamic, gravity-gradient, and rotational effects was constructed and compared with flight data. Examination of the model with the flight data shows the instrument to be sensitive to all major expected low frequency acceleration phenomena; however, some erratic instrument bias behavior persists in two axes. In these axes, the OARE data can be made to match a comprehensive atmospheric-aerodynamic model by making bias adjustments and slight linear corrections for drift. The other axis does not exhibit these difficulties and gives good agreement with the acceleration model.

Blanchard, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2000

Planet Formation and the Characteristics of Extrasolar Planets

An overview of current theories of planetary growth, emphasizing the formation of extrasolar planets, is presented. Models of planet formation are based upon observations of the Solar System, extrasolar planets, and young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth like terrestrial planets, but if they become massive enough before the protoplanetary disk dissipates, then they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Formation and Detection of Planetary Systems

Modern theories of star and planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. The most detailed models of planetary growth are based upon observations of planets and smaller bodies within our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed, and the methods that are being used and planned for detecting and characterizing extrasolar planets are reviewed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Planet Formation

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Planet Formation - Overview

Modern theories of star and planet formation are based upon observations of planets and smaller bodies within our own Solar System, exoplanets &round normal stars and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Trainable Cataloging for Digital Image Libraries with Applications to Volcano Detection

Users of digital image libraries are often not interested in image data per se but in derived products such as catalogs of objects of interest. Converting an image database into a usable catalog is typically carried out manually at present. For many larger image databases the purely manual approach is completely impractical. In this paper we describe the development of a trainable cataloging system: the user indicates the location of the objects of interest for a number of training images and the system learns to detect and catalog these objects in the rest of the database. In particular we describe the application of this system to the cataloging of small volcanoes in radar images of Venus. The volcano problem is of interest because of the scale (30,000 images, order of 1 million detectable volcanoes), technical difficulty (the variability of the volcanoes in appearance) and the scientific importance of the problem. The problem of uncertain or subjective ground truth is of fundamental importance in cataloging problems of this nature and is discussed in some detail. Experimental results are presented which quantify and compare the detection performance of the system relative to human detection performance. The paper concludes by discussing the limitations of the proposed system and the lessons learned of general relevance to the development of digital image libraries.

digital image libraries, trainable cataloging↗