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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructure effects on high velocity microparticle impacts of copper

Constitutive models can fail to predict high-rate deformation behavior due to their inability to account for microstructural effects. In part, this is because of a dearth of experimental benchmarking data in the high strain-rate, low pressure regime, since many high-rate experiments also probe a region of strong shockwaves, at which point microstructure effects no longer play a primary role. This work uses laser-induced particle impact testing to quantitatively study high velocity impacts of small, rigid alumina microspheres on flat copper substrates with varying amounts of initial cold work in the weak shock regime, but at very high strain rates up to ~10 7 s –1 . Through paired experiments and numerical simulations, this work shows that the initial microstructure condition can have significant influence on dynamical mechanical properties in this range. Specifically, prior work hardening of the copper substrate leads to increased rebounding of the microparticles (i.e., less plastic dissipation in the impact) as well as smaller craters. Each of these experimental measurables can be converted into a strength measure, i.e., the dynamic yield strength or dynamic hardness, respectively, neither of which is well predicted consistently by existing constitutive laws. The general trend of hardening can be captured by such models by incorporating an existing “pre-strain,” suggesting that future calibration of the materials parameters may yield a good fit over a broader range of conditions. Our results emphasize the importance of reporting the microstructural condition in dynamic studies, as well as the necessity of accounting for these factors when formulating and optimizing constitutive models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis

Addressing the impact of vegetation architecture on shortwave radiation transfer in land surface models is important for accurate weather forecasting, carbon budget estimates, and climate predictions. This paper investigates to what extent it is possible to retrieve structural parameters of two different parameterization schemes from direct transmittance derived from digital hemispherical photography and 3D radiative transfer modeling for two study sites with different vegetation canopy architectures. Neglecting the representation of 3D canopy structure in radiative transfer schemes leads to significant errors in shortwave radiation partitioning (up to 3.5 times more direct transmittance in the 3D model). Structural parameters, referred to as whole canopy ‘clumping indices’, were obtained in order to evaluate the impact of angular variation in clumping on shortwave radiation transfer. Impacts on photosynthesis were evaluated at site level with the UKESM land surface model, JULES. A comparison between flux tower derived and modeled photosynthesis indicates that considering zenith angular variations of structural parameters in the radiative transfer scheme of the UKESM land surface model significantly improves photosynthesis prediction in light limited ecosystems (from RMSE = 2.91 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 to RMSE = 1.51 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 , 48% smaller), typically with enhanced photosynthesis from bottom layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A study on the impact of using a subchannel resolution for modeling of large break loss of coolant accidents

The nuclear industry is investigating the feasibility of transitioning from 18- to 24-month fuel cycles because of the positive impact it would have on the operational costs for the current fleet of light-water reactors. A challenge to making this change is the increased risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) due to the known potential for ceramic fuel to pulverize into fine particles at the higher discharge burnups. Previous work has been performed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to assess FFRD risk in high-burnup cores using the BISON fuel performance code and a coarse mesh thermal hydraulics (T/H) solution for a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) using the TRACE system T/H code. Because of the importance of the T/H solution for FFRD assessment, this study seeks to investigate the impact of using higher-fidelity subchannel techniques for modeling of the LOCA transient. CTF was used to model a subregion of a high-burnup core that was depleted by the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) multiphysics core simulator. Both coarse-mesh and pin-resolved models were created in CTF, and a consistent coarse-mesh TRACE model was also developed to allow for benchmarking the code results. Further, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) reflood transient was simulated using these three models, and results were compared. Results showed some consistent differences between the CTF and TRACE coarse models, including a higher peak cladding temperature (PCT) prediction in CTF and later quenching in CTF; however, the transient clad temperature behavior was similar, and these differences are likely due to post-critical heat flux heat transfer modeling differences and minimum film boiling temperature model differences. The pin-resolved results indicate that the PCT in the lumped model is often under-predicted by as much as 70 °C and that PCT occurs at a different location than the high-power pin in the assembly. The lumped model predicts a difference of 10 °C or less between the average and hot pins in the assembly, whereas the pin-resolved model predicts a range of over 100 °C. These results indicate that higher-fidelity T/H results may have an impact on predicted core behavior during LOCA, which may be important to consider when assessing FFRD risk.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of U-10Mo HALEU fuel element tolerances on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reactor safety and operational performance – Thermal hydraulics

The U.S. is coordinating efforts for the conversion of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) including one critical facility from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU). In order to continue the mission of these reactors, including the Massachusetts of Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), and achieve similar performance, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) with a high-density metallic alloy of uranium with 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is being evaluated. The impact of the fabrication specification and tolerances was assessed following the preliminary design of the MITR LEU fuel elements using the U-10Mo monolithic alloy. This research focuses on the analysis of fabrication specification impact on thermal hydraulics (TH) characteristic of the MITR LEU core as a function of the variation of the relevant fuel specification parameters (e.g., coolant channel gap thickness, fuel plate thickness, etc.). The analyses are performed based on an all-fresh LEU fuel conversion plan identified in a preliminary safety analysis report submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The reactor power margin to the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB) is assessed under the limiting safety system settings (LSSS), where a scram occurs, to ensure there is sufficient margin to the reactor safety limit, which is defined by the onset of flow instability that occurs after the ONB. The best estimate plus uncertainty approach is employed to analyze this TH characteristic, which yields realistic results while maintaining adequate conservatism, utilizing a statistical uncertainty propagation method with the STAT7 code. The TH characteristic is analyzed as a function of the variability of the specification parameters resulting from the fabrication process. The main findings of this study show that the MITR core can meet the TH safety and operational requirements at the all-LEU initial core startup (cycle 1), selected transition cycles (most reactive cycle and most limiting cycle: cycle 3 and 5, respectively) and equilibrium (cycle 14) cores under all limiting fabrication parameter combinations considered. In addition, the analyses show that the dependency of the core power margin to ONB on those specification parameters that have the most direct impact on TH performance is non-linear but monotonically decreasing within the specification tolerances. The third order polynomial fit curves are reported in detail for selected limiting cases and can serve as a powerful tool for future MITR fuel management in cases such as when HALEU supply is established that may allow additional cycle length or other operational benefits.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life cycle energy and environmental impacts of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel production from pennycress

There is a growing interest in making the overall aviation industry more environmentally-friendly by developing advanced biofuels. In this context, the main driver is establishing feedstocks with lower environmental loads and higher energy use efficiency. The objective of this study was to evaluate the energy requirement and environmental impacts of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel (HRJ) production from pennycress. The system boundary included pennycress production, logistics, oil extraction and conversion to HRJ, wastewater treatment, and electricity and steam generation. Energy allocation method was used for the analysis. The functional unit was considered to be one GJ of HRJ, and the biorefinery size was considered to be 18.9 million l/yr (5 million gal/yr) HRJ. Energy use efficiency of pennycress-based HRJ production was estimated to be 3.9–5.5 (90% central range), which was higher than that of HRJ from other oilseeds, such as canola. Global warming potential of pennycress-based HRJ (35–49 kgCO 2 eq/GJ of HRJ (90% central range)) was also lower than those of HRJ from similar oilseeds and the commercial jet fuel baseline. Pennycress production was the main contributor to the total energy use and environmental impacts of HRJ production, mainly due to the use of nitrogen fertilizer for production, and fuel combustion for farm operations. Pennycress yield was identified as the most sensitive parameter affecting the energy use efficiency and environmental impacts of HRJ production. Furthermore, the outcomes of this study are useful for identifying the performance targets towards improving energy use efficiency and environmental performance of pennycress-based HRJ production at the commercial scale.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root litter decomposition rates and impacts of drought are regulated by ecosystem legacy

In grassland ecosystems, about two-thirds of productivity is in roots, and therefore roots constitute a major soil organic matter input. However, influences on the rate of root litter decomposition remain unresolved, especially in the context of land-use conversion and climate change. Ecosystem legacy can affect root decomposition rates via impacts on substrate chemistry and soil environments, and this may manifest in responses of decomposition to changing temperature and moisture. Here we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic legacy effects and moderate drought on root litter decomposition rates in five "Land Use History Types": crop fields, cow pastures, remnant tallgrass prairie, and prairie restored from crop fields and pastures. We measured root losses of mass, carbon, and nitrogen over 11 months. Further, soil bulk density was unimportant for decomposition, but soil moisture content and temperature were relevant for decomposition rates while time since disturbance predicted decomposition initiation times. Furthermore, soil moisture and temperature dynamics alone could not explain the responses of decomposition rates to drought, which were positively correlated to time since disturbance. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic legacy impacts decomposition rates in grasslands, especially when soil moisture and temperature dynamics are substantially altered, and mediates soil community responses to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of an oxide layer on high velocity impact of tantalum particles characterized using molecular dynamics

Micro-cold spray, also commonly referred to as the aerosol deposition method or vacuum kinetic spraying, is a process for depositing nanostructured films of metals and ceramics by impacting solid nanoparticles at high velocity onto a substrate at room temperature and at low pressures. Tantalum films deposited by micro-cold spray are desirable because tantalum is non-reactive to certain molten metals and can therefore serve as a non-reactive barrier coating. However, unlike most other metals deposited by micro-cold spray, tantalum quickly forms an oxide layer when exposed to air. In the deposition of films using traditional cold spray with much larger particles, native oxides must fracture for particle–substrate bonding to occur. Furthermore, the fraction of the particle that is oxidized in micro-cold spray and the strain rates experienced by the particles upon impact are both much larger than in cold spray, suggesting that the role of the oxide on film deposition may be distinct. The effect of this oxide layer on particle deformation and adherence to a substrate under high strain rates is studied using molecular dynamics simulations. The effect of oxide layer thickness, particle diameter, and impact velocity are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of wildfires on regional ozone and PM 2.5 : Considering the light absorption of Brown carbon

The influence of wildfire brown carbon (BrC) in moderating the formation of O 3 and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) due to its absorption of ultraviolet (UV) radiation is, for the first time, investigated using a modified community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model. The wavelength-dependent imaginary refractive index of the organic carbon from wildfires, which are needed by the CMAQ model for its inline photolysis rate calculation, are generated experimentally from wood burning aerosols from a combustion chamber. On high emission days of the Bastrop County Complex fire in Texas in early September 2011, BrC UV absorption reduces the daytime average NO 2 photolysis rate by up to 38% in the core region of the wildfire plume compared to the base scenario that does not consider BrC absorption. Consequently, O 3 production in the smoke plume is suppressed compared to the base scenario due to reduced HO x radical concentrations. Further, in the core region, the predicted O 3 increase due to wildfire reaches as high as 47–123 ppb without considering BrC absorption, the predicted increase of O 3 is 5–15% lower when BrC absorption is considered. Similarly, considering the BrC UV absorption leads to approximately 1% (or ~2–3 µgm -3 ) lower estimation of the wildfire emissions’ impact on total PM 2.5 . This change is small because secondary aerosols, which are the components affected by BrC absorption, only account for a small fraction of the total PM 2.5 in wildfire impacted regions in this study. In addition, our study shows that assumptions about aerosol mixing state (core-shell vs. homogeneous) in the inline photolysis rate calculation would not significantly affect out assessment of the impact of wildfire BrC light absorption on O 3 and PM 2.5 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of amorphous pockets on displacement damage evolution in silicon

Silicon has long been known to exhibit amorphization in response to heavy particle bombardment. For doses below the total amorphization threshold, partial amorphization is observed in the form of scattered amorphous pockets. While extensive research has gone into modeling the formation and evolution of amorphous pockets in response to irradiation, no studies yet investigate their impact on the evolution of other damage such as interstitial supersaturation and clustering. In this study, we survey the impact of amorphous pockets on defect evolution in silicon when treated as static sinks. MD is first used to show that amorphous pockets provide energetically favorable sites for point defects relative to the crystalline bulk, supporting the hypothesis that they act as sinks. A 0-D cluster dynamics model is then constructed, taking an interstitial clustering model from the literature and including amorphous pockets as a sink species. We conduct our survey for temperatures between 30 and 400 °C and sink strengths between 1 to 6 x 10 10 cm −2 . Both implantation- and radiation-induced damage states are investigated using interstitial and vacancy concentrations as initial condition variables. We find that, due to the differing migration rates of the interstitial and the vacancy, amorphous pockets have a non-monotonic impact on the final damage state depending on the effective sink strength of the amorphous pockets, resulting in increased damage formation in regimes of intermediate amorphization. In conclusion, this result emphasizes the important role of amorphous pockets in governing the evolution of damage in partially amorphized crystalline materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗