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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Landmark-Warped Emulators for Models with Misaligned Functional Response

Many computer models output functional data, and in some cases, these functional data have similar, but misaligned, shape characteristics. In this paper, we introduce a general approach for building emulators for computer models that output misaligned functional data when key values in the functional response (landmarks) can be easily identified. This approach has two main parts: modeling the aligned (using the landmarks) functional data, and modeling the functions that map the misaligned data to the aligned space (warping functions). As the warping functions are required to be monotonic, we give special attention to modeling monotonic functional response data. We discuss how our approach can be easily applied for a variety of typical emulators, such as Gaussian processes, Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines, and Bayesian additive regression trees, and how sensitivity analysis can be performed. We demonstrate our approach by building emulators for two applications: (1) a high-energy-density physics computer model used to simulate inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments, where model outputs are highly misaligned, and (2) a multiphysics continuum hydrocode used to simulate high-velocity impact experiments, where model outputs are only slightly misaligned. In case (1) traditional methods cannot be applied, while in (2) they can be applied, but the proposed method performs significantly better.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Far-field thermal imaging below diffraction limit

Non-uniform self-heating and temperature hotspots are major concerns compromising the performance and reliability of submicron electronic and optoelectronic devices. At deep submicron scales where effects such as contact-related artifacts and diffraction limits accurate measurements of temperature hotspots, non-contact thermal characterization can be extremely valuable. In this work, we use a Bayesian optimization framework with generalized Gaussian Markov random field (GGMRF) prior model to obtain accurate full-field temperature distribution of self-heated metal interconnects from their thermoreflectance thermal images (TRI) with spatial resolution 2.5 times below Rayleigh limit for 530nm illumination. Finite element simulations along with TRI experimental data were used to characterize the point spread function of the optical imaging system. In addition, unlike iterative reconstruction algorithms that use ad hoc regularization parameters in their prior models to obtain the best quality image, we used numerical experiments and finite element modeling to estimate the regularization parameter for solving a real experimental inverse problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical investigation of wind turbine wakes under high thrust coefficient

Abstract We study wind turbine wakes of rotors operating at high thrust coefficients ( C T > 24/25) using large‐eddy simulations with a rotating actuator disk model. Wind turbine wakes at high thrust coefficients are different from wakes at low thrust coefficients. Wakes behave differently at high thrust, with increased turbulence and faster recovery. Lower induction in the wake is achieved because wakes in high‐thrust conditions recover much faster than in normal operating conditions. This enhanced recovery is possible thanks to the turbulence generated in the near wake. We explore the mechanism behind this behavior and propose a simple model to reproduce it. We also propose a Gaussian fit for the wakes under high‐thrust conditions and use it use it to initialize an Ainslie type model within the FAST.Farm framework.

FAST.Farm↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: hypothesis testing of structure

ABSTRACT A crucial aspect of mass mapping, via weak lensing, is quantification of the uncertainty introduced during the reconstruction process. Properly accounting for these errors has been largely ignored to date. We present a new method to reconstruct maximum a posteriori (MAP) convergence maps by formulating an unconstrained Bayesian inference problem with Laplace-type l1-norm sparsity-promoting priors, which we solve via convex optimization. Approaching mass mapping in this manner allows us to exploit recent developments in probability concentration theory to infer theoretically conservative uncertainties for our MAP reconstructions, without relying on assumptions of Gaussianity. For the first time, these methods allow us to perform hypothesis testing of structure, from which it is possible to distinguish between physical objects and artefacts of the reconstruction. Here, we present this new formalism, and demonstrate the method on simulations, before applying the developed formalism to two observational data sets of the Abell 520 cluster. Initial reconstructions of the Abell 520 catalogues reported the detection of an anomalous ‘dark core’ – an overdense region with no optical counterpart – which was taken to be evidence for self-interacting dark matter. In our Bayesian framework, it is found that neither Abell 520 data set can conclusively determine the physicality of such dark cores at $99{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. However, in both cases the recovered MAP estimators are consistent with both sets of data.

Price, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using convolutional neural networks to accelerate three-dimensional coherent synchrotron radiation computations

Calculating the effects of coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) is one of the most computationally expensive tasks in accelerator physics. Here, we use convolutional neural networks (CNNs), along with a latent conditional diffusion (LCD) model, trained on physics-based simulations to speed up calculations. Specifically, we produce the 3D CSR wakefields generated by electron bunches in circular orbit in the steady-state condition. Two datasets are used for training and testing the models: wakefields generated by three-dimensional Gaussian electron distributions and wakefields from a sum of up to 25 three-dimensional Gaussian distributions. The CNNs are able to accurately produce the 3D wakefields ∼250–1000 times faster than the numerical calculations, while the LCD achieves a gain of a factor of ∼34. We also test the extrapolation and out-of-distribution generalization ability of the models. They generalize well on distributions with larger spreads than what they were trained on but struggle with smaller spreads.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey II: measurements in Fourier space with optimal weights

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}^\mathrm{local} $from the clustering of 343 708 quasars with redshifts 0.8 < z < 2.2 distributed over 4808 deg2 from the final data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), the largest volume spectroscopic survey up to date. Our analysis is performed in Fourier space, using the power spectrum monopole at very large scales to constrain the scale-dependent halo bias. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis pipeline with EZ-mock catalogues that simulate the eBOSS DR16 target selection. We carefully assess the impact of systematics on our measurement, exploiting a novel neural network scheme for cleaning the DR16 sample as well as test multiple contamination removal methods. We estimate the bias due to the overcorrection of the systematic removal to be sub-dominant compared to the statistical uncertainty. We find fNL = −12 ± 21 (68 per cent confidence) for the main clustering sample including quasars with redshifts between 0.8 and 2.2, after applying redshift weighting techniques, designed for non-Gaussianity measurement from large scales structure, to optimize our analysis, which improve our results by 37 per cent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond the two-point correlation: Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with density-perturbation moments

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) on the large-scale cosmic structure (LSS) is an important step in understanding properties of the early Universe, specifically in distinguishing between different inflationary models. Measuring PNG relies on evaluating the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. New summary statistics beyond the two- and three-point correlation functions in configuration space and their Fourier-space counterparts, the power- and bispectrum may provide increased sensitivity. We introduce a new method for extracting the PNG signal imprinted on the LSS by using the first three Gaussian moments of the normalized correlation in density perturbations, evaluated on varying distance scales. We aim to assess this method’s sensitivity to local PNG, parameterized by f NL . We performed spherical convolutions on a range of scales on dark-matter-halo simulations to measure the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. From these, we computed the first three moments and compared them to a model expectation vector, parameterized to the second power in f NL . Our method provides about 21% improvement in sensitivity to f NL with respect to using the two-point correlation function alone. Notably, we find that the second moment alone carries nearly as much constraining power as the mean, highlighting the potential of higher order statistics. Given its simplicity and efficiency, this framework is well suited for application to current and upcoming large-scale surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

early universe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optical matter machines: angular momentum conversion by collective modes in optically bound nanoparticle arrays

The creation of optically powered self-assembling nano-to-meso-scale machines that do work is a long-standing goal in photonics. We demonstrate an optical matter (OM) machine that converts the spin angular momentum (SAM) of light into orbital angular momentum (OAM) to do mechanical work. The specific OM machine we study is based on a sixfold symmetric hexagonally ordered nanoparticle array that operates as an OM “gear” that is assembled and made to rotate in a circularly polarized Gaussian beam. The rotational symmetry of the OM gear leads to a selection rule for the allowed scattering modes based on their angular momentum. Electrodynamics calculations show that the collective scattering modes with the largest angular momentum scatter strongly in the transverse direction. Simulations and experiments show that the angular momentum that accompanies the scattered light causes a “negative torque” response on the OM gear and drives a “probe” particle placed outside the OM gear around the gear in an asymmetric force field analogously to Brownian ratchets. The gear–probe OM machine concept can be expanded to applications in nanofluidics and particle sorting.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification for Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics Closure Relations with a Physics-Informed Bayesian Approach

Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (MCFD) based on the two-fluid model is considered a promising tool to model complex two-phase flow systems. MCFD simulation can predict local flow features without resolving interfacial information. As a result, the MCFD solver relies on closure relations to describe the interaction between the two phases. Those empirical or semi-mechanistic closure relations constitute a major source of uncertainty for MCFD predictions. In this paper, we leverage a physics-informed uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach to inversely quantify the closure relations’ model form uncertainty in a physically consistent manner. This proposed approach considers the model form uncertainty terms as stochastic fields that are additive to the closure relation outputs. Combining dimensionality reduction and Gaussian processes, the posterior distribution of the stochastic fields can be effectively quantified within the Bayesian framework with the support of experimental measurements. As this UQ approach is fully integrated into the MCFD solving process, the physical constraints of the system can be naturally preserved in the UQ results. Here, in a case study of adiabatic bubbly flow, we demonstrate that this UQ approach can quantify the model form uncertainty of the MCFD interfacial force closure relations, thus effectively improving the simulation results with relatively sparse data support.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic fluctuations near a Hopf bifurcation: Stochastic onset of vortex shedding behind a circular cylinder

Here, we investigate hydrodynamic fluctuations in the flow past a circular cylinder near the critical Reynolds number Re c for the onset of vortex shedding. Starting from the fluctuating Navier-Stokes equations, we perform a perturbation expansion around Re c to derive analytical expressions for the statistics of the fluctuating lift force. Molecular-level simulations using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method support the theoretical predictions of the lift power spectrum and amplitude distribution. Notably, we have been able to collect sufficient statistics at distances Re ⁡/ Re c – 1 = O ⁡(10 –3 ) from the instability that confirm the appearance of non-Gaussian fluctuations, and we observe that they are associated with intermittent vortex shedding. These results emphasize how unavoidable thermal-noise-induced fluctuations become dramatically amplified in the vicinity of oscillatory flow instabilities and that their onset is fundamentally stochastic.

42 ENGINEERING↗