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DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Stable-Isotope Probing (qSIP) with Metagenomics Links Microbial Physiology and Activity to Soil Moisture in Mediterranean-Climate Grassland Ecosystems

The growth and physiology of soil microorganisms, which play vital roles in biogeochemical cycling, are shaped by both current and historical soil environmental conditions. Here, we developed and applied a genome-resolved metagenomic implementation of quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP) with an H 2 18 O labeling experiment to identify actively growing soil microorganisms and their genomic capacities. qSIP enabled measurement of taxon-specific growth because isotopic incorporation into microbial DNA requires production of new genome copies. We studied three Mediterranean grassland soils across a rainfall gradient to evaluate the hypothesis that historic precipitation levels are an important factor controlling trait selection. We used qSIP-informed genome-resolved metagenomics to resolve the active subset of soil community members and identify their characteristic ecophysiological traits. Higher year-round precipitation levels correlated with higher activity and growth rates of flagellar motile microorganisms. In addition to heavily isotopically labeled bacteria, we identified abundant isotope-labeled phages, suggesting phage-induced cell lysis likely contributed to necromass production at all three sites. Further, there was a positive correlation between phage activity and the activity of putative phage hosts. Contrary to our expectations, the capacity to decompose the diverse complex carbohydrates common in soil organic matter or oxidize methanol and carbon monoxide were broadly distributed across active and inactive bacteria in all three soils, implying that these traits are not highly selected for by historical precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The direct and indirect drivers shaping RNA viral communities in grassland soil

Recent studies have revealed diverse RNA viral communities in soils. Yet, how environmental factors influence soil RNA viruses remains largely unknown. Here, we recovered RNA viral communities from 24 metatranscriptomes sequenced from grassland soils managed under a range of environmental conditions including 1) water content: 100% and 25% water holding capacity, 2) plant presence: planted with tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) and bare soil, 3) cultivar type: Alkar and Jose, and 4) soil depth: 0-5 cm and 15-25 cm. The recovered RNA viral communities were novel with nearly one-third of the RNA viral contigs uniquely detected in the studied grassland. The classified RNA viral contigs are mostly known as eukaryotic RNA viruses (74.7%) belonging to Phyla Duplornaviricota, Kitrinoviricota, Lenarviricota, and Pisuviricota. Eukaryotic RNA viruses of Family Mitoviridae as well as their natural hosts, Fungi, are one of the most dominant taxa. Consistent with the results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis, the four environmental conditions (water content, plant presence, cultivar, and soil depth) significantly influence the assemblages of soil RNA viral communities as suggested by the correlation analysis and the random forest algorithm. The modularity analysis of the factor network and the structural equation modeling further support the hierarchical associations among the four environmental factors and the community factors representing the co-existing eukaryotic, prokaryotic, and RNA viral communities. The soil water content, plant presence, and type of cultivar demonstrate a significant positive impact on eukaryotic RNA viral richness directly as well as indirectly on eukaryotic RNA viral abundance via influencing the co-existing eukaryotic members in this soil. Our data also provide statistical support for the negative influence of soil depth on soil eukaryotic richness and abundances resulting in its indirect impact on soil eukaryotic RNA viral communities. This study provides field-relevant information on how environmental and community factors collectively shape soil RNA communities and contribute to ecological understanding of RNA viral survival under various environmental conditions and virus-host interactions in soil.

Wu, Ruonan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water desalination through the dewpoint evaporative system

This paper presents the first numerical analysis of a novel Dew Point Desalination unit (DPD), which utilizes the phenomenon of the evaporative cooling process to minimize energy consumption. The proposed solution is based on a modular structure, which allows it to obtain any required water production capacity. The analyses for various operational parameters and various climatic conditions are based on the numerical simulations conducted using a validated mathematical model. The system performance was described with different factors, including specific energy consumption (SEC) and daily water production rate respected to 1 m^3*s^-1 of passing air stream (DWP). It is shown that the DPD system can operate in almost every climate zone, and the desalinated water production consumes less than 1.5 kWh*m^-3 of electric energy It is noted the best performance of the DPD system is achieved in the semi-arid, desert and subtropical climate zones. In these climate zones, the 2-stage DPD system allows the production of desalinated water with an electric energy consumption SEC lower than 0.5 kWh*m^-3. The additional benefit of the DPD system is its modularity. The presented DPD system stands as a module, that can be multiplied as needed to achieve the desired size of the desalination plant.

Desalination↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational Approaches for Clean Energy Materials

Currently, 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels and only 20% as electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, a successful energy transition will require enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies. As much as photovoltaic capacities have grown over the past 20 years, it is far from clear that current technologies and materials are up to the task to grow from here by yet another factor 100 until 2050. Therefore, sustained research efforts on emerging inorganic semiconductors for solar electricity and fuels are essential for facing the double challenge of climate change and energy security. Computational materials science can make important contributions, guiding and supporting research activities through both materials search and discovery and through detailed studies that help to develop a mechanistic understanding of materials performance and bottlenecks. This presentation will highlight three recent computational projects with relevance for photovoltaics and solar fuels (1) Defect graph neural networks (dGNN) for materials discovery in solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) [1]. The dGNN approach facilitates broad and fast materials screening for defect properties. (2) Modeling highly off-stoichiometric systems by evaluating the free energy of defect interaction [2]. This approach allows quantitative prediction of H2 production in complex STCH oxides. (3) First-principles atomic structure prediction for interfaces [3]. This work showed how an atomically thin CdCl2 interlayer phase enables in principle ideal electron transport across the incommensurate SnO2/CdTe interface. [1] M.D. Witman, A. Goyal, T. Ogitsu, A.H. McDaniel, S. Lany, Nat. Comput. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00495-2. [2] A. Goyal, M.D. Sanders, R.P. O'Hayre, S. Lany, PRX Energy 3, 013008 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1103/PRXEnergy.3.013008. [3] A. Sharan, M. Nardone, D. Krasikov, N. Singh, S. Lany, Appl. Phys. Rev. 9, 041411 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0104008.

density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supramolecular Motion Enables Chondrogenic Bioactivity of a Cyclic Peptide Mimetic of Transforming Growth Factor-β1

Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 is a multifunctional protein that is essential in many cellular processes that include fibrosis, inflammation, chondrogenesis, and cartilage repair. In particular, cartilage repair is important to avoid physical disability since this tissue does not have the inherent capacity to regenerate beyond full development. We report here on supramolecular coassemblies of two peptide amphiphile molecules, one containing a TGF-β1 mimetic peptide, and another which is one of two constitutional isomers lacking bioactivity. Using human articular chondrocytes, we investigated the bioactivity of the supramolecular copolymers of each isomer displaying either the previously reported linear form of the mimetic peptide or a novel cyclic analogue. Based on fluorescence depolarization and 1 H NMR spin–lattice relaxation times, we found that coassemblies containing the cyclic compound and the most dynamic isomer exhibited the highest intracellular TGF-β1 signaling and gene expression of cartilage extracellular matrix components. Here, we conclude that control of supramolecular motion is emerging as an important factor in the binding of synthetic molecules to receptors that can be tuned through chemical structure.

Antigens↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insight into the deformation features and capacity loss mechanisms of lithium-ion pouch cells under spherical indentation conditions

Mechanical deformation under extreme conditions is one of the important reasons for the failure of lithium-ion batteries in automotive application. However, the deformation features and component failure of lithium-ion cells to external loading has never been a design consideration. Here, in this study, we conduct spherical indentation tests on a dozen of lithium-ion cells with different capacities under different control mode conditions to investigate their deformation features and capacity loss mechanisms. The experimental results show that, under mechanical deformation conditions, internal faults of cells occur in stages, and energy accumulation and sudden release are two key processes of cell's mechanical failure. The cells' state of charge is the main factor affecting their thermal runaway behaviors. In addition, a finite element model is developed to simulate the deformation features and the failure mechanism of key components of lithium-ion pouch cells; the 3D x-ray computed tomography is employed to demonstrate its internal configuration. With this model, the force-strain response, the deformation features as well as the size of the failure area of lithium-ion cells under spherical indentation conditions are accurately predicted. In 3D x-ray computed tomography images, unique mud cracks in cooper current collector are observed, and the influence mechanisms of the isolated fragments on the cell capacities are revealed. These results may provide useful information for the mechanical structure design of the components of lithium-ion pouch cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Psychosocial experiences are associated with human brain mitochondrial biology

Psychosocial experiences affect brain health and aging trajectories, but the molecular pathways underlying these associations remain unclear. Normal brain function relies on energy transformation by mitochondria oxidative phosphorylation (OxPhos). Two main lines of evidence position mitochondria both as targets and drivers of psychosocial experiences. On the one hand, chronic stress exposure and mood states may alter multiple aspects of mitochondrial biology; on the other hand, functional variations in mitochondrial OxPhos capacity may alter social behavior, stress reactivity, and mood. But are psychosocial exposures and subjective experiences linked to mitochondrial biology in the human brain? By combining longitudinal antemortem assessments of psychosocial factors with postmortem brain (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) proteomics in older adults, we find that higher well-being is linked to greater abundance of the mitochondrial OxPhos machinery, whereas higher negative mood is linked to lower OxPhos protein content. Combined, positive and negative psychosocial factors explained 18 to 25% of the variance in the abundance of OxPhos complex I, the primary biochemical entry point that energizes brain mitochondria. Moreover, interrogating mitochondrial psychobiological associations in specific neuronal and nonneuronal brain cells with single-nucleus RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) revealed strong cell-type-specific associations for positive psychosocial experiences and mitochondria in glia but opposite associations in neurons. As a result, these “mind-mitochondria” associations were masked in bulk RNA-seq, highlighting the likely underestimation of true psychobiological effect sizes in bulk brain tissues. Thus, self-reported psychosocial experiences are linked to human brain mitochondrial phenotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-metallic conduction cooled superconducting radio-frequency cavity with high thermal stability

Superconducting radio-frequency cavities are commonly used in modern particle accelerators for applied and fundamental research. Such cavities are typically made of high-purity, bulk Nb and with cooling by a liquid helium bath at a temperature of ~2 K. The size, cost and complexity of operating a particle accelerator with a liquid helium refrigerator make the current cavity technology not favorable for use in industrial-type accelerators. We have developed a multi-metallic 1.495 GHz elliptical cavity conductively cooled by a cryocooler. The cavity has a ~2 µm thick layer of Nb 3 Sn on the inner surface, exposed to the rf field, deposited on a ~3 mm thick bulk Nb shell and a bulk Cu shell, of thickness $\geqslant\! 5$ mm deposited on the outer surface by electroplating. A bolt-on Cu plate 1.27 cm thick was used to thermally connect the cavity equator to the second stage of a Gifford-McMahon cryocooler with a nominal capacity of 2 W at 4.2 K. The cavity was tested initially in liquid helium at 4.3 K and reached a peak surface magnetic field of ~36 mT with a quality factor of 2 × 10 9 . The cavity cooled by the cryocooler achieved a peak surface magnetic field of ~29 mT, equivalent to an accelerating gradient of 6.5 MV m –1 . The conduction-cooled cavity could be operated in continuous-wave with as high as 5 W dissipation in the cavity for 1 h without any thermal breakdown, because of the Cu outer layer with high thermal conductivity. This result represents a paradigm shift in the technology of superconducting accelerator cavities.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ionic Conductive and Highly-Stable Interface for Alkali Metal Anodes

Alkali metals are regarded as the most promising candidates for advanced anode for the next-generation batteries due to their high specific capacity, low electrochemical potential, and lightweight. However, critical problems of the alkali metal anodes, especially dendrite formation and interface stabilization, remain challenging to overcome. The solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) is a key factor affecting Li and Na deposition behavior and electrochemical performances. Herein, a facile and universal approach is successfully developed to fabricate ionic conductive interfaces for Li and Na metal anodes by modified atomic layer deposition (ALD). In this process, the Li metal (or Na metal) plays the role of Li (or Na) source without any additional Li (or Na) precursor during ALD. Moreover, the key questions about the influence of ALD deposition temperature on the compositions and structure of the coatings are addressed. The optimized ionic conductive coatings have significantly improved the electrochemical performances. In addition, the electrochemical phase-field model is performed to prove that the ionic conductive coating is very effective in promoting uniform electrodeposition. Further, this approach is universal and can be potentially applied to other different metal anodes. At the same time, it can be extended to other types of coatings or other deposition techniques.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi–Modular Design of Stable Pore–Space–Partitioned Metal–Organic Frameworks for Gas Separation Applications

Pore space partition (PSP) is an effective materials design method for developing high-performance small-pore materials for storage and separation of gas molecules. The continued success of PSP depends on broad availability and judicious choice of pore-partition ligands and better understanding of each structural module on stability and sorption properties. Here, by using substructural bioisosteric strategy (sub-BIS), a dramatic expansion of pore-partitioned materials is targeted by using ditopic dipyridyl ligands with non-aromatic cores or extenders, as well as by expanding heterometallic clusters to uncommon nickel–vanadium and nickel–indium clusters rarely known before in porous materials. The dual-module iterative refinement of pore-partition ligands and trimers leads to remarkable enhancement of chemical stability and porosity. Here a family of 23 pore-partitioned materials synthesized from five pore-partition ligands and seven types of trimeric clusters is reported. New materials with such compositionally and structurally diverse framework modules reveal key factors that dictate stability, porosity, and gas separation properties. Among these, materials based on heterometallic vanadium–nickel trimeric clusters give rise to the highest long-term hydrolytic stability and remarkable uptake capacity for CO 2 , C 2 H 2 /C 2 H 4 /C 2 H 6 , and C 3 H 6 /C 3 H 8 hydrocarbon gases. Here, the breakthrough experiment shows the potential application of new materials for separating gas mixtures such as C 2 H 2 /CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Fuel Cell and Battery Storage Power Management for Grid-Interactive EV Charging Station

With the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources in grid-interactive Electric Vehicle (EV) charging stations, the role of energy storage systems has become critical. While large energy storage systems have mitigated the intermittency of renewable energy, integrating multi-source energy management with prioritized charging can further enhance the reliability of charging stations (CS). This paper presents a decentralized energy management (DEM) approach combining battery energy storage (BES) and fuel cell (FC) systems using a rule-based line resistance correction droop (LRCD) control technique. The proposed droop control dynamically adjusts the gain to balance the state-of-charge (SoC) of the BES, enhancing power support longevity and improving battery life under varying capacity conditions by reducing current stress. Additionally, the paper addresses the challenges of using fuel cells in linear regions to optimize efficiency and manage various charging scenarios. The CS integrates unity power factor grid interaction, and power support for auxiliary loads, maintaining harmonic distortion within 5% during grid islanding. The approach evaluates DC bus voltage regulation under various scenarios of PV array power fluctuations and dynamic load variations, in both grid-connected and standalone operations. In conclusion, the proposed control strategy is validated on a laboratory prototype through various dynamic load variation and grid islanding scenarios.

Khalid, Mohd [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Leasing Areas for Humboldt and Morro Bay Wind Energy Areas, California

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is providing scientific and technical services to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) under an interagency agreement. The purpose of this report is to provide technical assistance in delineating potential lease areas from the California wind energy areas (WEAs) that can be competitively auctioned to wind energy developers. Each wind energy area is presumed to be technically and economically feasible for wind energy development based on the economic cost study performed by NREL in 2020. The subsequent analysis summarized in this report is intended to help BOEM maximize efficient offshore wind energy resource use and ensure fair return to the Government for use of the lease areas, by making recommendations for viable ways to divide the WEAs into auctionable commercial lease areas of approximately equal value. We considered several factors that affect the value of lease areas for wind energy development, including mean wind speeds, water depth, seafloor gradient, seismicity, hard substrate, and access to infrastructure. The largest impact to generating capacity came from the choice of mooring technology and the resulting setback from the lease area boundaries. Based on our setback assumptions, the generating capacity for a wind plant using catenary moorings could be nearly 30% less than with vertical moorings in Humboldt, or approximately 20% less in Morro Bay. The likely range of generating capacity is 1.5 to 3 GW in Humboldt and 3 to 5 GW in Morro Bay.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genomic fingerprints of the world’s soil ecosystems

Despite the explosion of soil metagenomic data, we lack a synthesized understanding of patterns in the distribution and functions of soil microorganisms. These patterns are critical to predictions of soil microbiome responses to climate change and resulting feedbacks that regulate greenhouse gas release from soils. To address this gap, we assay 1,512 manually curated soil metagenomes using complementary annotation databases, read-based taxonomy, and machine learning to extract multidimensional genomic fingerprints of global soil microbiomes. Our objective is to uncover novel biogeographical patterns of soil microbiomes across environmental factors and ecological biomes with high molecular resolution. We reveal shifts in the potential for (i) microbial nutrient acquisition across pH gradients; (ii) stress-, transport-, and redox-based processes across changes in soil bulk density; and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions across biomes. We also use an unsupervised approach to reveal a collection of soils with distinct genomic signatures, characterized by coordinated changes in soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and cation exchange capacity and in bulk density and clay content that may ultimately reflect soil environments with high microbial activity. Genomic fingerprints for these soils highlight the importance of resource scavenging, plant-microbe interactions, fungi, and heterotrophic metabolisms. Across all analyses, we observed phylogenetic coherence in soil microbiomes—more closely related microorganisms tended to move congruently in response to soil factors. Collectively, the genomic fingerprints uncovered here present a basis for global patterns in the microbial mechanisms underlying soil biogeochemistry and help beget tractable microbial reaction networks for incorporation into process-based models of soil carbon and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗