Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Performance prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures

This supplemental document describes the methodology used for determining the dispatch timing of various EUSS demand flexibility measures. Demand flexibility measures are designed to reduce/dispatch electricity demand in buildings during especially beneficial/critical times. The method used in this work utilizes predictions of building loads to generate a schedule that reflects the periods when the building's daily peak load occurs to support decision making in demand flexibility measures. The dispatch schedule generation method described in this document creates an hourly schedule that includes a load dispatch (peak) window for each day for a whole year based on load prediction, with options using different prediction methods: perfect prediction, bin-sampling method, fixed schedule, and outdoor air temperature (OAT)-based prediction method. The perfect prediction method performs a simulation to obtain the annual load profile as predicted load, representing the scenario of perfect load prediction. The bin-sampling method (1) categorizes days into representative bins by temperature characteristics, (2) performs simulations on sample days from each of those bins to create representative (or predicted) load, and (3) assigns representative loads for all days in a year based on the bin categorization. The fixed schedule method defines uniform start and end time of peak window with assumed fixed daily peak time, for all days in a season or a year. The OAT-based prediction method uses the statistics of OAT (minimum and maximum) as the indicators of peak load, with specified delay response time from building loads to temperature. Given the load prediction, daily peak periods are determined as a time window with specified length in each day that include the predicted daily peak load and with a secondary rule such as maximizing energy saving potential. The dispatch schedule generation method is not a standalone measure and is intended to be combined with other demand flexibility measures that could leverage the peak schedule and apply demand controls on specific systems or devices for demand response, such as measures described in "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding" and "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shifting".

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An International Round-Robin Study on Thermoelectric Module Testing and Development of Standard Power Generation Modules

An international round-robin study on thermoelectric power generation modules was conducted with nine participating laboratories. Two types of commercially available bismuth telluride modules, 30 mm × 30 mm and 40 mm × 40 mm, were used. A test protocol was followed with five temperature set points from 50°C to 150°C. Graphite sheets were used as thermal interface materials with test pressure at 100 psi (0.69 MPa). The results showed large lab-to-lab variations and the key source of uncertainty for module efficiency was identified as the heat flux measurement. In the meantime, significant uncertainty was also found in maximum electrical power (P max ) measurements. As a result of the round-robin, a “standard module” with 4 × 4 legs on a 20 mm × 20 mm platform was suggested. A skutterudite module and a half-Heusler module were produced with identical geometry and 4 mm × 4 mm × 8 mm legs. All transport properties to calculate the figure-of-merit, zT, were measured from ambient temperature to 500°C. Module performance was measured by two laboratories. Two finite-element-analysis (FEA)-based models were developed independently to simulate and predict the module performance. In conclusion, the standard modules eliminated significant test uncertainties and are aimed at assisting device design and achieving more accurate performance predictions.

Round-robin↗

Long-Term Structural and Chemical Stability of Carbon Electrodes in Vanadium Redox Flow Battery

Predicting the performance decay in carbon electrodes is critical to maximizing the longevity of redox flow battery (RFB) systems. This study investigates the effect of long-term cycling (over 8000 cycles) on the structural and chemical evolution of carbon electrodes. We find that the microstructural aspects such as graphitic stacking order and interlayer spacing along with overall morphological construct remains largely unchanged even after the prolonged cycling process. Conversely, significant changes in surface chemistry such as evolution of functional groups and point defects are evident from our combined multimodal spectroscopic and computational analysis. The XPS and FTIR analysis reveals chemical absorption of chloride counter anions at point defects within graphitic surface. Additionally, our results suggest that vanadium cation plays an important role in counter anion-carbon surface interaction and subsequently the surface chemistry evolutions. Our findings provide insights about surface chemical evolution that is critical for predicting electrode performance and longevity of RFB.

Modachur Sivakumar, Bhuvaneswari↗

Energy Evaluation of Electron Beam Treatment of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Water: A Critical Review

Due to their recalcitrant nature and ubiquitous use, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) will continue to be major water treatment hurdles. Although effective water treatment technologies exist for physical removal of many PFAS from water (e.g., activated carbon and ion-exchange resin), a PFAS-concentrated waste stream is generated as an end product that can potentially reintroduce PFAS back into the environment. Thus, there is an increased interest in developing destructive technologies to decompose and mineralize PFAS directly in water or in these waste streams. High energy electron beam (e-beam) accelerators have been used for water treatment to degrade a wide range of recalcitrant contaminants, including PFAS, since the 1960s. However, large-scale applications of e-beam for water treatment are restricted due to its high energy consumption and inability to treat large flow rates. Considering there are very few available technologies for destructive removal of PFAS, this study provides a critical review on the treatment of PFAS by direct irradiation of contaminated water by e-beam from an energy consumption point of view. To date, very limited studies have been conducted to investigate the success of this technology to treat PFAS. Results from the limited studies were not directly comparable due to the variation in operating conditions and water quality parameters used in the studies. Here, for the first time, we develop and apply the concept of electrical energy per order (EE/O) to assess the performance of e-beam for PFAS treatment. Results show that EE/O is a better performance parameter than the G value of e-beam for interstudy comparisons and to evaluate the effects of water quality and operating parameters on e-beam performance. We additionally developed a kinetic scheme to predict the performance of e-beam to treat PFAS and revealed that the competition between species to react with aqueous electrons is the determinant factor influencing PFAS degradation efficiency. Comparison of EE/O values of e-beam (range: 31–176 kWh m –3 order –1 ) with other destructive technologies (range: 5–9595 kWh m –3 order –1 ) suggest that e-beam, for PFAS treatment, is a promising approach under favorable conditions. Furthermore, this review further elucidates the feasibility and limitations of e-beam technology that could be improved upon to potentially make e-beam viable for large-scale water treatment applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Lattice Boltzmann Method for Predicting Porous Transport Layer Performance During Electrolysis

Electrolysis, the splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen using electricity, is a sustainable way to produce green hydrogen for energy storage. In polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolysis, water is brought into contact with charged catalyst layers and electrochemically separated into oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen product formed at the cathode is carried through the catalyst layer for eventual collection, while the oxygen by-product formed at the anode is removed from the surface via a multiphase interaction with circulating water and a solid porous transport layer (PTL). The design of this PTL aids in the detachment and advection of the oxygen by-product and thereby plays a role in the overall efficacy of the catalyst. In this presentation, we present our initial results modeling this multiphase system using a single-component, multiphase lattice Boltzmann method. We use the Shan-Chen model describing inter-particle forces to capture both the cohesion of the water (liquid) and oxygen (gas) phases and their interaction with the PTL (solid) (Shan and Chen, 1993). We use a Carnahan-Starling equation of state to model the effective density governing these inter-particle interactions which allows us to model this relatively high density ratio system (Carnahan and Starling, 1969). With these simulations, we show that the geometry and heterogeneity of the PTL geometry plays a large role in its ability to move oxygen away from the catalyst layer and the resulting bubble structures that are formed within the PTL. The current work demonstrates these effects using synthesized PTL geometries and 2D physics, which will be extended to experimentally-imaged PTL sections and 3D algorithms in the near future.

Boltzmann↗

Tools Assessing Performance

For the distributed wind industry, it can be challenging to accurately predict the performance and annual energy production of projects prior to their installation. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project aims to improve wind resource characterization, thereby reducing the uncertainty of project performance and financing costs, increasing consumer confidence, and lowering the levelized cost of distributed wind energy. A collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories, TAP will create a computational framework that provides the distributed wind community with access to newly developed wind resource data and modeling capabilities. These capabilities will allow users to perform timely and accurate performance assessments for distributed wind projects at locations across the United States.

wind, distributed, tools, performance↗

Spectral Effects in Albedo and Rearside Irradiance Measurment for Bifacial Performance Estimation: Preprint

Albedo data are essential for accurate prediction of bifacial PV module performance. However, spectral response mismatch between PV modules and irradiance sensors used in albedometers can limit the accuracy of performance predictions. In order to provide quantitative assessment of this effect, we investigate via simulation the differences in spectrally responsive albedo measured with thermopile pyranometers and crystallinesilicon PV reference cells in comparison to a representative crystalline-silicon bifacial PV module for nine different representative ground surface materials. Calculations are performed using simulated solar spectra together with catalogued spectral reflectivity data distributed with the SMARTS simulation software. For the specific materials considered, the results show that albedo measurement using thermopile pyranometers could over or under-estimate the ground-reflected radiation usable by a bifacial PV module by up to 10%, versus only approximately 4% total range of variation for a PV reference cell.

Albedo↗