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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Framework: New Methods for Resonance Parameter Evaluation [Slides]

BMC evaluation is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. ENDF-6 format does not allow non-normal parameter PDFs. Storing posterior sets allow for variance, covariance, skewness, etc. To better predict criticality, we could document non-normal parameter PDFs (i.e. asymmetric uncertainty), consider non-linear sensitivity of $\kappa$ eff to resonance parameters, and reduce uncertainty in key resonance parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON capability and validation for U3Si2, Cr2O3-doped UO2, FeCrAl, and Cr-coated Zircaloy ATF concepts

Development, implementation, and validation of material and behavior models for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts in the BISON fuel performance code began in 2014 in response to the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daichii nuclear power plant in March 2011. Early on, the focus was on U3Si2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding as part of a high-impact problem through the Nuclear Energy and Advanced Model- ing Simulation program [1]. Then, developments for Cr2O3- doped UO2 fuel, as well as SiC-SiC and Cr-coated Zircaloy cladding began based upon industry interests. Near the end of fiscal year 2018 the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors took over further Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) work in BISON in support of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Discussions with the NRC clarified their list of priority fuel and cladding concepts, which included Cr2O3-doped UO2 and U3Si2 fuels, as well as Cr-coated Zircaloy and FeCrAl claddings. Further, reports similar in form to NUREG/CR-7024 [2] that was developed for traditional light water reactor (LWR) materials, UO2 fuel with Zircaloy claddings were created for the priority fuel and cladding concepts. In this paper select details from the reports entitled "ATF material model development and validation for priority fuel concepts" [3] and "ATF material model development and validation for priority cladding concepts" [4] are presented. First, a brief overview of the available models and their associated uncertainty are provided for the priority fuel and cladding concepts. Then, for the concepts with experimental data, comparisons between simulation and experiment are shown taking into account forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. For the concepts without publicly available experimental data, parametric studies incorporating forward UQ are completed to verify claims made about the materials’ behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Release of Evaluated 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 235 U from 200 keV to 15 MeV that is a potential release candidate for the upcoming U.S. nuclear data library, ENDF/B-VIII.1. This evaluation had to be re-done from "scratch", as the input to the $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation of the previous library, ENDF/B-VIII.0, was lost. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that this evaluation includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to perform two types of validation for the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$: On the one hand, one can employ evaluated CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data indicating the evaluated 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ are physical. On the other hand, one can validate 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ with respect to integral responses such as fast ICSBEP critical assemblies or LLNL pulsed spheres. LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra are minimally impacted by the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ as these experimental data are shape data and the $\overline{v}_p$ would mostly lead to a change in normalization of the data as the spheres are relatively thin (0.7 and 1.5 mean-free path) and, thus, mostly depend on 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 12-15 MeV. The change in the predicted effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, however, is large compared to values using ENDF/B-VIII.0 and experimental k eff : The average bias is 108 pcm across all studied k eff values versus 12 pcm for ENDF/B-VIII.0. A reasonable performance in simulating keff (mean bias of 14 pcm) can be retained by tweaking 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 3-5 MeV, and combining it with a recent 235 U PFNS evaluation that is also a ENDF/B-VIII.1 release candidate.

235U↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Nuclear Data

Bayesian evaluation of resolved resonance region (RRR) nuclear data has historically been carried out using the generalized least squares (GLS) formalism, as implemented in, e.g., SAMMY. We have recently developed a prototype of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) evaluation framework, implemented using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) acceptance criterion. This was done in order to remove the approximations underlying the conventional GLS evaluations, namely, the linear approximation, and the approximation that all probability density functions (PDFs) are of the normal kind. Recent works by others have used similar stochastic approaches to quantify cross section uncertainties from ENDF evaluated co-variances, and/or, from integral benchmark data, but those have not been conceived as an evaluation framework like the one presented here.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using real-time nuclear activation detectors for measuring neutron yields from D(D, T)n reactions on the national ignition facility (NIF)

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) has 48 Real-Time Nuclear Activation Detectors distributed around the target chamber capable of measuring deuterium-triton reaction neutron yields with high precision. Here, in this work, we extend this functionality to deuterium–deuterium (DD) reaction neutrons using a nuclear reaction that occurs in the detector’s scintillator material. The corresponding decay of the activated material has a very short half-life of 5 s, which necessitates rapid data collection immediately following an experiment. In this regime, dead time can be very high (>50%) adding significant uncertainty to the measurement. To combat this, we have developed a dead time model that can self-consistently describe the measured data. Initial results show reasonable agreement (within 20%) with DD neutron yields from neutron time-of-flight spectrometers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential analysis of incompressibility in neutron-rich nuclei

Both the incompressibility K A of a finite nucleus of mass A and that (K ∞ ) of infinite nuclear matter are fundamentally important for many critical issues in nuclear physics and astrophysics. While some consensus has been reached about K ∞ , accurate theoretical predictions and experimental extractions of K τ characterizing the isospin dependence of K A have been very difficult. We propose a differential approach to extract K τ and K ∞ independently from the K A data of any two nuclei in a given isotope chain. Applying this method to the K A data from isoscalar giant monopole resonances (ISGMR) in even-even Pb, Sn, Cd, and Ca isotopes taken by Garg et al. at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Japan, we find that the 106 Cd– 116 Cd and 112 Sn– 124 Sn pairs having the largest differences in isospin asymmetries in their respective isotope chains measured so far provide consistently the most accurate up-to-date K τ value of K τ = –616 ± 59 MeV and K τ =–623 ± 86 MeV, respectively, largely independent of the remaining uncertainties of the surface and Coulomb terms in expanding K A , while the K ∞ values extracted from different isotopes chains are all well within the current uncertainty range of the community consensus for K ∞ . Moreover, the size and origin of the “soft Sn puzzle” is studied with respect to the “stiff Pb phenomenon.” Furthermore, it is found that the latter is favored due to a much larger (by ≈ 380 MeV) K τ for Pb isotopes than for Sn isotopes, while K ∞ from analyzing the K A data of Sn isotopes is only about 5 MeV less than that from analyzing the Pb data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow boiling transient critical heat flux tests with stainless steel and FeCrAl: Transient correlation implementation, model calibration, and sensitivity analysis

In this study, steady-state and transient internal-flow critical heat flux (CHF) experiments were carried out under two flow conditions, at atmospheric pressure, on 316 stainless steel (316-SS) and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) tubes. Slow power transients at a low mass flow (300 kg/m 2 - s) with very low subcooling (X e =-0.0054) generated premature CHFs, which were prevented by faster power transients and high mass flow (1000 kg/m 2 - s). The measured transient CHFs increased linearly with increasing power transients, compared with the steady-state CHF. Yet, the wall superheat at the CHFs decreased with faster power transients. Transient CHF correlations highlighting heterogeneous spontaneous nucleation were calibrated to the measured CHFs and compared with other existing correlations. Transient CHF multipliers were acquired from pool and flow boiling empirical CHF correlations that were generated. The multipliers were applied to the RELAP5-3D nuclear system code to analyze the discrepancies between the measured data and the predicted CHF and post-CHF behavior, which improved peak cladding temperature predictions by 24.6%. A variance-based global sensitivity study perturbing the experimental uncertainties and cladding material thermal properties showed the diminishing influence of flow boiling heat transfer with increasing power transients, highlighting the significance of the volumetric heat capacity for the cladding integrity during transients. Transient CHF correlations were applied to the most limiting design basis accident: a hot-zero-power reactivity-initiated accident on a generic pressurized water reactor RELAP5-3D model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mobility assessment of the BCC and carbide phases in the C-Nb, C-U and Nb-U systems

Uranium carbides with refractory metal additions are considered for Gen IV nuclear reactors and nuclear thermal propulsion as fuels for their high-temperature and corrosion resistant properties. Understanding kinetic effects that dictate microstructural evolution during fabrication and operating conditions is essential to advance technological development of these fuels. This work presents the development of an atomic mobility database for C-Nb-U systems based off available experimental data supported with ab-initio methods. The mobility assessments and uncertainty quantification (using Markov chain Monte Carlo) were conducted in the Kawin software. Carbon diffusion is considered dominant, as metal diffusion is much slower, with niobium diffusion being even slower and rate limiting than uranium metal. We provide a comprehensive and self-consistent thermo-kinetic database that is validated by diffusion couple simulations through Kawin. In conclusion, this enables prediction of microstructural and phase evolution critical for the development and lifetime assessment of next generation nuclear fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Industry Requirements for Geomagnetic Disturbance Models

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Evaluation of one Dimensional Array of HEU Moderated and Reflected by Lucite [Poster]

Two critical experiments with HEU-Lucite were performed using the Planet Universal Critical Assembly Machine at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2019. HEU foils were interleaved with Lucite in a column stack for moderation and reflection from the square Lucite plates. The evaluation of the experiments is presented. A Monte-Carlo (MCNP6) calculation model was developed for the determination of uncertainties and their effect on the multiplication factor. Experimental uncertainties were found to be low with the overall uncertainty in k eff approximately 240 pcm. The comparison of calculations with experimental data is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program (Rev. 2)

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 and SHRT-6 were protected loss of flow tests where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R, SHRT-39, and SHRT-43R were unprotected loss of flow tests where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. PICT-5/6 demonstrated how core power could be increased and decreased via changes in the intermediate sodium and feedwater flow rates. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for all tests simulated there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The E989 collaboration has recently published the most precise measurement of the muon anomalous magnetic moment $a_\mu$ with an uncertainty of $0.46\,\mathrm{ppm}$. The new experimental world average of $a_\mu$ deviates by 4.2 standard deviations from the Standard Model prediction provided by the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative. Emerging results from ab-initio lattice QCD calculations for hadron-physics contributions allow to scrutinize this tantalizing hint for physics beyond the Standard Model for the first time in a three way comparison. To extract the value of $a_\mu$ a frequency comparison experiment is performed with spin-polarized muons confined in a superbly controlled electric and magnetic field environment. A measurement of the difference between the Larmor and the cyclotron frequency, the so-called anomalous spin precession frequency, is combined with a high-precision measurement of the magnetic field environment which is performed using nuclear magnetic resonance techniques. I discussed the most recent result of the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment's first physics data run performed in 2018. I reported on the experimental improvements implemented for the subsequent science runs that will allow the collaboration to achieve the ultimate goal of $0.14\,\mathrm{ppm}$ uncertainty on $a_\mu$.

Fertl, Martin↗
DOE OSTI2023

First Direct Measurement Constraining the Ar 34 ( α , p ) K 37 Reaction Cross Section for Mixed Hydrogen and Helium Burning in Accreting Neutron Stars

The rate of the final step in the astrophysical αp process, the 34 Ar(α,p) 37 K reaction, suffers from large uncertainties due to a lack of experimental data, despite having a considerable impact on the observable light curves of x-ray bursts and the composition of the ashes of hydrogen and helium burning on accreting neutron stars. Here, we present the first direct measurement constraining the 34Ar(α,p)37K reaction cross section, using the Jet Experiments in Nuclear Structure and Astrophysics gas jet target. The combined cross section for the 34 Ar,Cl(α,p) 37 K,Ar reaction is found to agree well with Hauser-Feshbach predictions. The 34 Ar(α,2p) 36 Ar cross section, which can be exclusively attributed to the 34 Ar beam component, also agrees to within the typical uncertainties quoted for statistical models. This indicates the applicability of the statistical model for predicting astrophysical (α,p) reaction rates in this part of the αp process, in contrast to earlier findings from indirect reaction studies indicating orders-of-magnitude discrepancies. This removes a significant uncertainty in models of hydrogen and helium burning on accreting neutron stars.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗