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DOE OSTI · 1886360

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Framework: New Methods for Resonance Parameter Evaluation [Slides]

Brown, Jesse·Arbanas, Goran·Holcomb, Andrew·Wiarda, Dorothea
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Abstract

BMC evaluation is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. ENDF-6 format does not allow non-normal parameter PDFs. Storing posterior sets allow for variance, covariance, skewness, etc. To better predict criticality, we could document non-normal parameter PDFs (i.e. asymmetric uncertainty), consider non-linear sensitivity of $\kappa$ eff to resonance parameters, and reduce uncertainty in key resonance parameters.

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73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTINGBayes' theoremMetropolis Hastings Monte Carlo (MHMC) AlgorithmNuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)nuclear data

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Brown, Jesse, Arbanas, Goran, Holcomb, Andrew, Wiarda, Dorothea. 2022-02-17. Bayesian Monte-Carlo Framework: New Methods for Resonance Parameter Evaluation [Slides]. https://doi.org/10.2172/1886360

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