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At least 469 records · Page 26

Using sub-limb observations to measure gravity waves excited by convection

Convective gravity waves are a major driver of atmospheric circulation, including the stratospheric and mesospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Previous work shows clear evidence that these waves can be excited by both single convective cells and by mesoscale convective complexes acting as a single unit. However, the partitioning of the generated waves and, crucially for atmospheric model development, the flux of momentum they transport between these two types of excitation process remains highly uncertain due to a fundamental lack of suitable observations at the global scale. Here, we use both theoretical calculations and sampled output from a high-resolution weather model to demonstrate that a satellite instrument using a sub-limb geometry would be well suited to characterising the short-vertical short-horizontal gravity waves these systems produce, and hence to provide the scientific knowledge needed to identify the relative wave-driving contribution of these two types of convective wave excitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Damage development in neutron-irradiated concrete in a test reactor: Hygro-thermal and mechanical simulations

This paper reports the development of a 3D mesoscale hygro-thermal-mechanical simulation approach to predict damage in concrete irradiated in a test reactor. This framework, developed in MOOSE, considers the effects of elevated temperature, moisture content, and high neutron fluence (energy threshold, E > 0.1 MeV) on the mortar and aggregates separately. The first-stage simulation implements hygro-thermal analysis to determine the temperature and RH inside the specimen as a function of imposed radiation energy. These are used as inputs to the second stage, which considers radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) of aggregates, and creep, shrinkage, and stress-strain response of mortar to predict the expansion, stresses, and damage in specimens made using different coarse aggregates and subjected to different irradiation times. The irradiation time-dependent damage in the mortar is expressed using an isotropic damage parameter. This multi-physics model serves as a predictive tool for damage quantification in concrete due to neutron irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phase-field simulations to inform nuclear fuel performance modeling

Software tools to simulate nuclear fuel performance at the engineering scale, such as Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s BISON code, are increasingly relied upon in regulatory and economic decision-making. However, accurate results from these tools depends on the availability of materials parameters that are used as input. In recent years, atomistic and mesoscale simulation methods have emerged as a cost-effective, expedient means to obtain such input parameters. Phase-field simulations using INL’s Marmot application have been used to obtain microstructure-level parameters and to improve material models for fuel performance modeling using BISON. In this talk, recent examples of this process are given, including applications in UO2, U3Si2, and UZr fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic effects of porosity and chemical kinetics on the shock initiation of an octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) based explosive

In this work, we investigate the effects of porosity and chemical reactivity on the shock initiation of an HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine)-based polymer bonded explosive due to thin flyer impact using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations. Microstructural samples are computationally generated, and the calculated shock response is compared to experiments. The sample dimensions are 0.1×1.05 mm 2 , and each sample accounts for grain scale heterogeneities, including randomized grain morphology and pore spacing. Simulations are performed using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian multi-physics code ALE3D. Chemistry and equation of states are handled with LLNL's thermochemical code Cheetah. We employ a modified Arrhenius-based chemical kinetics model that scales the temperature exponent fitting parameter with flyer shock conditions. This new model is calibrated to the mean response of experimental shock initiation thresholds for three separate Kapton flyer thicknesses. A simplified shock initiation criterion is proposed, which classifies the macroscale initiation response based on cross-sectional temperature profiles of the shocked sample. This criterion is used to further investigate the probabilistic response of the sample to variations in the mean porosity and chemical kinetics rate, and we find an inverse correlation between the shock pressure and the confidence interval of the experimental threshold velocity. Furthermore, the methodology presented in this work for quantifying the probabilistic nature of shock initiation is material agnostic. These mesoscale studies may be used to inform continuum scale models and expedite the development of future, tailored energetic formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbonation of Alkaline Earth Metal Hydroxides: Structure across Nano- to Mesoscales

The conversion of gaseous CO 2 into a solid constitution through mineralization is an active area of carbon capture, and alkaline earth metal hydroxides (M(OH) 2 , M = Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ ) are frontrunners in this area. As model systems, nanolime samples are excellent templates for the study of this reaction. Here, we have examined these under ambient pressure conditions with controlled humidity and CO 2 . Utilizing a broad range of analytical methods, we first established the purity and structures of the selected materials. We then examined the structural changes due to carbonation, using infrared spectroscopy, X-ray scattering, and neutron scattering. The resulting structural changes are resolved from nanoscale to mesoscale and from early-stage to late-stage carbonation. Ca(OH) 2 and Mg(OH) 2 are found to behave quite differently. As expected from prior work, the carbonation of Ca(OH) 2 is kinetically favored. Further, our structure studies suggest this is due to a facile reaction at the fractal interface of the particles. From early- to late-stage carbonation, there is a consistent increase in the fractal roughness. This is in contrast to Mg(OH) 2 where the same surface evolves into a smooth conformal coating. For this material the major reacting component is at the mesoscale, suggesting globular particle growth or evolving macro-porosity. Because neutron scattering is sensitive to hydrogen content, we expected a significant change as M(OH) 2 evolves to MCO 3 . Such a change is found for Ca(OH) 2 but not for Mg(OH) 2 , providing evidence for the formation of hydrated carbonates for the later material. The formation of a conformal layer along with water-rich carbonate formation is an impediment to the use of Mg(OH) 2 for carbon capture. For energy-efficient carbon capture, it would be desirable to enhance carbonation rates for Mg(OH) 2 , and one possible route would be the use of anhydrous fluids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic FCCI model for BISON

In this report, multi-scale simulations to develop a mechanistic model of fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) conducted under the auspices of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in FY23 are described. The model assumes that cladding wastage is dominated by the intermetallic phase (Fe,Cr)$_{17}$Nd$_2$, and calculates production and diffusion of Nd in the fuel, diffusion into the cladding, and formation and growth of the intermetallic wastage layer. Atomistic simulations are used to calculate diffusivity of Nd in the (Fe,Cr) system. Mesoscale simulations, informed by previous atomistic calculations, are used to determine the effective diffusivity of Nd through the fuel, accounting for empty and sodium-filled porosity within the fuel. The BISON model incorporates this data and calculates the wastage layer thickness as a function of time, assuming parabolic growth kinetics based on the best available data. The results of the new mechanistic BISON model are compared to existing assessment cases for the X447 experiment in EBR-II, and show good agreement with experimental data and the existing BISON empirical model. To improve predictions of kinetics for future work, a phase-field model that includes fuel, wastage, and cladding phases is developed. Preliminary testing indicates that the kinetics may differ significantly from the assumed parabolic growth law, suggesting direction for future improvement of the model that will allow it to be applied to other fuel designs with greater confidence.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Fostering a Guiding Multiscale Model for the Development of Advanced MgB 2 Hydrogen Storage Materials (Final Technical Report)

Project Goal and Objective. The demand for energy and for an upgraded energy infrastructure has steadily grown, as have the needs for energy independence and alternatives to our reliance on petroleum. Hydrogen is considered the most viable fuels for wide-scale implementation in the near future as it is less-polluting, non-toxic, and has more stored energy than petroleum. It is envisioned that hydrogen can eventually become the prime energy carrier, integrating the transportation, grid, and chemical sectors in a way that improves resiliency, diversifies feedstocks, and affords new economic opportunities. A key remaining challenge is the development materials with enhanced gravimetric and volumetric hydrogen storage capacities that offer a higher performance than compressed gas. These materials would eliminate the need for large-scale compression, thereby dramatically reducing the footprint and cost of gas storage. The high gravimetric and volumetric hydrogen capacities of complex hydrides has prompted an intensive investigation of the potential of this class of materials as hydrogen storage media over the past 25 years. Among the many complex hydrides that have been explored, magnesium borohydride, Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , has been found to possess the best combination of practical thermodynamic properties. These include a gravimetric H 2 density of 14.9 wt% H 2 and thermodynamics for the dehydrogenation of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 to MgB 2 (equation 1) (ΔH° = 39 kJ/mol H 2 , ΔS = 112 J/K mol H 2 ) which lie in the narrow window required Mg(BH 4 ) 2 $\Leftrightarrow$ MgB 2 + 4 H 2 (1) for reversibility under moderate pressure and temperature. However, overcoming the extremely slow kinetics of the reversible release of hydrogen by this material in the solid state is a daunting challenge. At temperatures greater than 400 °C, the borohydride releases up to 14 wt% hydrogen giving MgB 2 . We discovered that the direct re-hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 can be accomplished under 950 bar H 2 at 400 °C. While this demonstrated that complete reversibility can be achieved, the conditions employed are far too extreme for commercial hydrogen storage applications. More recently, we found through US DOE funded research projects (EERE HyMARC and HySCOR), that hydrogen cycling, can be accomplish at much milder conditions upon modification of the borohydride or boride. Guided by these discoveries these discoveries, the objective of this research project was to obtain key information that will enable the development of a model of reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 . The ultimate goal of our efforts is to attain a model of this transformation that can be utilized to accelerate development further advanced materials. This project directly follows on discoveries that were made over the course of a US DOE, EERE HyMARC project that was focused on improvement of the hydrogen cycling kinetics of modified MgB 2 . We found that that mechanical milling with graphene results the desired, pronounced kinetic enhancement. The dramatic lowering of the conditions required for the hydrogenation of MgB 2 is a significant step towards overcoming its chemical inertness allowing its development as a practical onboard hydrogen storage material. However, the exact nature of the modification(s) of MgB 2 that is responsible for its activation towards hydrogenation is completely unknown. This situation is not unique, as efforts to develop hydrogen storage materials typically have a narrow focus rather than a comprehensive approach that takes atomic level bonding and structure; molecular dynamics; long range, nano- and mesoscale-structure and their interconnection all into account. The goal of this project was the development of a comprehensive, multi-scale computational model of reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 that can be utilized for development of higher performance versions of the modified material. Development of the model requires determination of: 1) the bulk, nano-scale, and meso-scale structural changes occurring at elevated pressure following mechano-chemical modification of MgB 2 ; 2) the reaction pathway of the reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 ; 3) the effect of elevated pressure and mechano-chemical modification on the chemical reaction pathways; 4) the interactions at solid-gas interfaces; and particle surfaces; and 5) the kinetics and thermodynamic parameters associated with each step of the hydrogenation reaction pathway. This investigation required advanced techniques as preliminary, standard XRD, 11 B NMR, and FTIR analysis showed no signs of material modification. In order to gain this level of understanding of modified MgB 2 , required the teaming of a diverse group of experts and state-of-the art experimental capabilities at the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) and collaborating National Laboratories: Craig Jensen , Department of Chemistry (PI and Project Director), solid state, solution, and high pressure NMR spectroscopy; solid-state synthesis; and high pressure hydrogenation (collaboration with SNL); Godwin Severa , Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (co-PI) calorimetry; infrared and Raman spectroscopy (collaboration with NREL); Dera , high pressure X-ray diffraction including in situ experiments (collaboration with ANL); Hope Ishii , Hawaii Institute of Geophysics electron microscopy investigations (collaboration with LBNL); and Joe Brown , Mechanical Engineering , material electronic structure and electric field effects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraints on the Parameterization of Convective Cloud Systems from Analyses of ARM Observations and Models

Anthony D. Del Genio has served as principal investigator since the inception of ASR in 2009 as co-chair of the Cloud Lifecycle Working Group (CLWG) and in connection with that as a member of the ASR Science and Infrastructure Steering Committee. In this role he has been intimately involved with oversight of existing and proposed ASR Focus Groups (Vertical Velocity, QUICR, Ice Properties) and thematic interest groups (Mesoscale Organized Convection, Warm Low Clouds, Mixed-Phase Clouds, MJO, Entrainment) whose activities fall under the purview of CLWG. The PI actively participates himself in the Mesoscale Organized Convection and MJO groups, is a Co-Investigator on two successfully implemented IOPs (AMIE, MC3E), and was an unfunded Collaborator on the recently completed FASTER project at BNL under the DOE Modeling Program. The PI has also spent the past three years as a member of the ARM Science Board, which reviews proposals to conduct IOPs at the permanent ARM sites and to deploy the ARM Mobile Facilities. Finally, the PI was a participant in the first ARM-European workshop in 2012 that eventually led to the creation of the SGP supersite concept. This report includes an annotated list of published research results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrostatic and Non‐Hydrostatic Baroclinic Instability in the Dynamical Core of the DOE Global Climate Model

Abstract The dynamical core of the Department of Energy global climate model is used to understand the role of non‐hydrostatic dynamics in the simulation of dry and moist baroclinic waves. To reduce computational cost, the Diabatic Acceleration and REscaling approach is adopted. Scale analysis and numerical simulations suggest that the model solution is not distorted by the change of spherical metric terms due to the change of Earth radius, neither are the inter‐scale interactions strongly altered as indicated by the analysis of spectral flux. Compared with hydrostatic simulations, the onset of baroclinic instability is delayed under non‐hydrostatic dynamics as the associated weaker vertical motions tend to increase the critical wavelength and narrow the range of waves that can be baroclinically unstable. During the development of baroclinic waves, non‐hydrostatic dynamics tends to induce vertical motions in the upper troposphere, accelerating the eastward propagation of upper‐level ridges through their impact on local vorticity tendency. These processes reduce the westward tilt of the vertical ridge axes and suppress the conversion of mean flow available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, leading to weaker baroclinic eddies than in hydrostatic simulations. The contrasts between hydrostatic and non‐hydrostatic settings hold in supplemental experiments that vary the background flow Rossby number, the amount of water vapor content and vertical resolution. We also find that mesoscale and smaller‐scale activities can be considerably under‐represented when the vertical resolution is limited to that typically used in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Scenario for CACTI

The Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) deep-convection scenario for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. The LASSO-CACTI scenario consists of a library of mesoscale and LES simulations spanning grid spacings from 7.5 km to 100 m for convection near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range, roughly centered on the ARM Mobile Facility. Supporting skill scores and observation comparisons complement the simulations in addition to subsets of the model output for various categories of model output variables. More information can be found at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Ohmic Losses in Fuel-Cell Catalyst Layers with Different Pt/C Ratios

A model of a fuel-cell cathode with distinct proton conductivities at the agglomerate and electrode scales was used to simulate polarization curves under conditions with facile oxygen transport. Here, the model was applied to electrodes containing agglomerates with different ratios of platinum to carbon in order to examine the hypothesis that intra-agglomerate proton conductivity is substantially lower than ionomer conductivity. The model predicts decreasing performance and increasing sensitivity to Pt/C ratio as intra-agglomerate conductivity declines relative to a constant through-electrode conductivity. Experiments on catalyst layers with Vulcan supports do not show the predicted trend indicating that mesoscale intra-agglomerate conductivity is not orders of magnitude lower than bulk ionomer conductivity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Dataset of tensile properties for sub-sized specimens of nuclear structural materials

Mechanical testing with sub-sized specimens plays an important role in the nuclear industry, facilitating tests in confined experimental spaces with lower irradiation levels and accelerating the qualification of new materials. The reduced size of specimens results in different material behavior at the microscale, mesoscale, and macroscale, in comparison to standard-sized specimens, which is referred to as the “specimen size effect.” Although analytical models have been proposed to correlate the properties of sub-sized specimens to standard-sized specimens, these models lack broad applicability across different materials and testing conditions. The objective of this study is to create the first large public dataset of tensile properties for sub-sized specimens used in nuclear structural materials. We performed an extensive literature review of relevant publications and extracted over 1,000 tensile testing records comprising 55 columns including material type and composition, manufacturing information, irradiation conditions, specimen dimensions, and tensile properties. The dataset can serve as a valuable resource to investigate the specimen size effect and develop computational methods to correlate the tensile properties of sub-sized specimens.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

Structural analyses of macromolecules by solution scattering (CRADA Final Report)

New innovative Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) methods to visualized macromolecules in solution at low resolution has led the SIBYLS group at Lawrence Berkeley Lab in being a world leader in biological SAXS. This research is particularly important now as LBNL establishes high-priority research topics including molecular to mesoscale analysis. This new expanding area of research relies on and ties in with our efforts towards developing a solution structure modeling tool for RNA structure prediction. Due to the pandemic our efforts focused on the SARS-CoV-2 proteins and RNA interactions. Specifically, we characterized SARS-CoC-2 proteins interaction with RNA (Wilanowski et al. 2021 -Hammel group) and Nucleoprotein interaction with RNA (Schneidman group).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in SST Variability across GCMs and Observations

Abstract Midlatitude SSTs forced by mesoscale oceanic processes can affect the large-scale atmosphere, pointing to the ocean’s crucial role outside the tropics. Previous studies have shown oceanic mesoscale processes’ effect on global and regional climate variability. This study quantifies the local contribution of ocean dynamics to mixed-layer temperature across the globe by directly estimating the ocean heat flux divergence resolved by state-of-the-art ocean reanalysis, eddy-resolving, and eddy-parameterized versions of two U.S. national climate models and indirectly from air–sea flux satellite-based estimates. Our results show that the eddy-resolving climate simulations resolve mixed-layer temperature variances that are larger and closer to those inferred from observations than both their eddy-parameterized counterparts and ECCO over much of the extratropics. The observations and the eddy-resolving models indicate a more significant role of ocean dynamics in the mixed-layer temperature variability than the surface fluxes over most extratropics compared to their eddy-parameterized versions. A frequency domain analysis shows that the better-resolved ocean mesoscale and thermal gradients enhance the variance over a time scale from 2 months to 30 years. Results show agreement in the ocean’s contribution among satellite-based estimates, ocean reanalysis products, and ocean eddy-resolving simulations. At the same time, differences emerge for ECCO and the eddy-parameterized models, suggesting that surface fluxes account for a larger fraction of the mixed-layer temperature variability in most of the extratropics.

Siqueira, L.↗