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NASA NTRS2008

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Zhang, Sara↗

NASA NTRS2011

Semantic Annotation of Complex Text Structures in Problem Reports

Text analysis is important for effective information retrieval from databases where the critical information is embedded in text fields. Aerospace safety depends on effective retrieval of relevant and related problem reports for the purpose of trend analysis. The complex text syntax in problem descriptions has limited statistical text mining of problem reports. The presentation describes an intelligent tagging approach that applies syntactic and then semantic analysis to overcome this problem. The tags identify types of problems and equipment that are embedded in the text descriptions. The power of these tags is illustrated in a faceted searching and browsing interface for problem report trending that combines automatically generated tags with database code fields and temporal information.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spiraling Away from Vesta: Design of the Transfer from the Low to High Altitude Dawn Mapping Orbits

Dawn has successfully completed its orbital mission at Vesta and is currently en route to an orbital rendezvous with Ceres in 2015. The longest duration and most complex portion of the Vesta departure trajectory was the transfer from the low to high altitude science orbit. This paper describes the design of this low-thrust trajectory optimized assuming a minimum-propellant mass objective. The transfer utilized solar-electric ion propulsion applied over 139 spacecraft revolutions about Vesta. Science drivers, operational constraints, and robustness to statistical uncertainties are addressed. The 45-day transfer trajectory was successfully implemented in early 2012.

low thrust↗

NASA NTRS2003

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series

Two dimensions of a dynamical system given by experimental time series are distinguished. Statistical dimension gives a theoretical upper bound for the minimal number of degrees of freedom required to describe the attractor up to the accuracy of the data, taking into account sampling and noise problems. The dynamical dimension is the intrinsic dimension of the attractor and does not depend on the quality of the data. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) provides estimates of the statistical dimension. SSA also describes the main physical phenomena reflected by the data. It gives adaptive spectral filters associated with the dominant oscillations of the system and clarifies the noise characteristics of the data. SSA is applied to four paleoclimatic records. The principal climatic oscillations and the regime changes in their amplitude are detected. About 10 degrees of freedom are statistically significant in the data. Large noise and insufficient sample length do not allow reliable estimates of the dynamical dimension.

Vautard, R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Time scales and variability of area-averaged tropical oceanic rainfall

A statistical analysis of time series of area-averaged rainfall over the oceans has been conducted around the diurnal time scale. The results of this analysis can be applied directly to the problem of establishing the magnitude of expected errors to be incurred in the estimation of monthly area-averaged rain rate from low orbiting satellites. Such statistics as the mean, standard deviation, integral time scale of background red noise, and spectral analyses were performed on time series of the GOES precipitation index taken at 3-hour intervals during the period spanning December 19, 1987 to March 31, 1988 over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The analyses have been conducted on 2.5 x 2.5 deg and 5 x 5 deg grid boxes, separately. The study shows that rainfall measurements by a sun-synchronous satellite visiting a spot twice per day will include a bias due to the existence of the semidiurnal cycle in the SPCZ ranging from 5 to 10 percentage points. The bias in the ITCZ may be of the order of 5 percentage points.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Modeling for Radiation Hardness Assurance

We cover the models and statistics associated with single event effects (and total ionizing dose), why we need them, and how to use them: What models are used, what errors exist in real test data, and what the model allows us to say about the DUT will be discussed. In addition, how to use other sources of data such as historical, heritage, and similar part and how to apply experience, physics, and expert opinion to the analysis will be covered. Also included will be concepts of Bayesian statistics, data fitting, and bounding rates.

Hardness Assurance↗

NASA NTRS2017

It's All Relative: A Validation of Radiation Quality Comparison Metrics

The difference between high-LET and low-LET radiation is quantified by a measure called relative biological effectiveness (RBE). RBE is defined as the ratio of the dose of a reference radiation to that of a test radiation to achieve the same effect level, and thus, is described either as an iso-effector dose-to-dose ratio. A single dose point is not sufficient to calculate an RBE value; therefore, studies with only one dose point usually calculate an effect-to-effect ratio. While not formally used in radiation protection, these iso-dose values may still be informative. Shuryak, et al 2017 investigated the use of an iso-dose metric termed "radiation effects ratio" (RER) and used both RBE and RER to estimate high-LET risks. To apply RBE or RER to risk prediction, the selected metric must be uniquely defined. That is, the calculated value must be consistent within a model given a constant set of constraints and assumptions, regardless of how effects are defined using statistical transformations from raw endpoint data. We first test the RBE and the RER to determine whether they are uniquely defined using transformations applied to raw data. Then, we test whether both metrics can predict heavy ion response data after simulated effect size scaling between human populations or when converting animal to human endpoints.

Chappell, Lori J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Preliminary statistical studies concerning the Campos RJ sugar cane area, using LANDSAT imagery and aerial photographs

The two phase sampling technique was applied to estimate the area cultivated with sugar cane in an approximately 984 sq km pilot region of Campos. Correlation between existing aerial photography and LANDSAT data was used. The two phase sampling technique corresponded to 99.6% of the results obtained by aerial photography, taken as ground truth. This estimate has a standard deviation of 225 ha, which constitutes a coefficient of variation of 0.6%.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Iterative and Non-Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Load Calculation Methods

The accuracy of iterative and non-iterative strain-gage balance load calculation methods was compared using data from the calibration of a force balance. Two iterative and one non-iterative method were investigated. In addition, transformations were applied to balance loads in order to process the calibration data in both direct read and force balance format. NASA's regression model optimization tool BALFIT was used to generate optimized regression models of the calibration data for each of the three load calculation methods. This approach made sure that the selected regression models met strict statistical quality requirements. The comparison of the standard deviation of the load residuals showed that the first iterative method may be applied to data in both the direct read and force balance format. The second iterative method, on the other hand, implicitly assumes that the primary gage sensitivities of all balance gages exist. Therefore, the second iterative method only works if the given balance data is processed in force balance format. The calibration data set was also processed using the non-iterative method. Standard deviations of the load residuals for the three load calculation methods were compared. Overall, the standard deviations show very good agreement. The load prediction accuracies of the three methods appear to be compatible as long as regression models used to analyze the calibration data meet strict statistical quality requirements. Recent improvements of the regression model optimization tool BALFIT are also discussed in the paper.

Ulbrich, N.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Development of baseline random vibration environment criteria for Shuttle pallet payload subsystems

This paper presents a statistical evaluation of measured random vibration response data obtained from the Office of Space Science-1 (OSS-1) pallet payload. The data were measured during the acoustic test simulation (September 1980) and the ascent phase of the flight of STS-3, Orbiter 102 (launched from the Kennedy Space Center on March 22, 1982). Acoustic test efficiency factors are evaluated based on the Dynamic, Acoustic and Thermal Environments (DATE) instrumentation as the source of the measured vibration data. Test efficiency correction to test data is applied in the extrapolation of non-DATE acoustic test data to increase sample population size for improved statistical evaluation. For baseline criteria evaluation and development, data are grouped in accordance with the payload zone in which the component is mounted.

On, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Development of baseline random vibration criteria for STS pallet payloads

On, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

On the occurrence of sympathetic flares

Random-coincidence formulas are applied to the data used in previous studies of alleged sympathetic flares to determine whether statistical evidence on the occurrence of such flares can be found for specific physically connected pairs of active regions. Only those active regions that are interconnected by magnetic loops in soft X-rays on Skylab photographs are considered to be physically connected. All pairs of flaring active regions (both interconnected and otherwise) observed on the sun during the Skylab flight are also evaluated. The only positive result is obtained with statistical confidence of 3.4 sigmas for pairs of active regions separated by no more than 30 deg. The occurrence of short time intervals between flares is shown to be increased for such active-region pairs, but the pattern of time intervals is found not to correspond with any propagation mode of a triggering agent in the solar atmosphere. It is suggested that some subphotospheric synchronization of activity in nearby plages and sunspot groups could increase the number of short time intervals between flares at different locations without any actual influence of one 'sympathetic' flare upon another, leading to the concept of 'sympathetic active regions' instead of 'sympathetic flares'.

Fritzova-Svestkova, L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

By observing the transit of various cloud features across the Jovian disk, limb-darkening curves were constructed for three regions in the 4.6 to 5.1 mu cm band. Several models currently employed in describing the radiative or dynamical properties of planetary atmospheres are here examined to understand their implications for limb-darkening. The statistical problem of fitting these models to the observed data is reviewed and methods for applying multiple regression analysis are discussed. Analysis of variance techniques are introduced to test the viability of a given physical process as a cause of the observed limb-darkening.

Newman, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1986

NDE of advanced ceramics

Radiographic, ultrasonic, and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high-density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was capable also of detecting voids, inclusions, and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermoacoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. Some limitations and the detection probability statistics of the aforementioned nondestructive evaluation (NDE) processes are also discussed.

Klima, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Validation of chemistry models employed in a particle simulation method

The chemistry models employed in a statistical particle simulation method, as implemented in the Intel iPSC/860 multiprocessor computer, are validated and applied. Chemical relaxation of five-species air in these reservoirs involves 34 simultaneous dissociation, recombination, and atomic-exchange reactions. The reaction rates employed in the analytic solutions are obtained from Arrhenius experimental correlations as functions of temperature for adiabatic gas reservoirs in thermal equilibrium. Favorable agreement with the analytic solutions validates the simulation when applied to relaxation of O2 toward equilibrium in reservoirs dominated by dissociation and recombination, respectively, and when applied to relaxation of air in the temperature range 5000 to 30,000 K. A flow of O2 over a circular cylinder at high Mach number is simulated to demonstrate application of the method to multidimensional reactive flows.

Haas, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effects of compressive preloads on the compression-after-impact strength of carbon/epoxy

A preloading device was used to examine the effects of compressive prestress on the compression-after-impact (CAI) strength of 16-ply, quasi-isotropic carbon epoxy test coupons. T300/934 material was evaluated at preloads from 200 to 4000 lb at impact energies from 1 to 9 joules. IM7/8551-7 material was evaluated at preloads from 4000 to 10,000 lb at impact energies from 4 to 16 joules. Advanced design of experiments methodology was used to design and evaluate the test matrices. The results showed that no statistically significant change in CAI strength could be contributed to the amount of compressive preload applied to the specimen.

Nettles, A. T.↗