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At least 451 records · Page 25

Re-Greening Sahel: 30 Years of Remote Sensing Data and Field Observations (Mali, Niger)

Desertification of the Sahel region has been debated for decades, while the concept of a "re-greening" Sahel appeared with satellite remote sensing data that allowed vegetation monitoring across wide regions and over increasingly long series of years (nowadays 30 years with the GIMMS-3g dataset). However, the scarcity of long-term field observations of vegetation in the Sahel prevents ground validation and deeper analysis of such trends. After assessing the consistency of the new GIMMS-3g NDVI product by comparison to three other AVHRR-NDVI datasets and MODIS NDVI, regional GIMMS-3g NDVI trends over 1981-2011 are analyzed. Trends are found positive and statistically significant almost everywhere in Sahel over the 1981-2011 period. Long-term field observations of the aboveground herbaceous layer mass have been collected within the Gourma region in Mali (1984-2011) and within the Fakara region in western Niger (1994-2011). These observations sample ecosystem and soil diversity, thus enabling estimation of averaged values representative of the Gourma and Fakara. NDVI measurements are found in good agreement with field observations, both over the Gourma and Fakara regions where re-greening and negative trends are observed respectively. A linear regression analysis performed between spatially averaged seasonal NDVI and a weighted average of field measurements explains 59% of the variability for the Gourma region over 1984-2011, and 38% for the Fakara region over 1994-2011. In the Gourma, which is a pastoral region, the re-greening trend is mainly observed over sandy soils, and attests for the ecosystem's resilience to the 1980s' drought, able to react to the more favorable rainfall of the 1990s and 2000s. However, contrasted changes in the landscape's functioning have occurred locally. An increase in erosion and run-off processes in association with decreasing or stable vegetation cover was observed over shallow soils, which occupy 30% of the area. In the agro-pastoral Fakara, the decreasing trends observed both from satellite NDVI and field assessments of herbaceous mass are hardly explained by rainfall. These results give confidence in the dominant positive trends in Sahelian greenness, but indicate that degradation trends can also be observed, both in situ and from satellite time series.

Sahel↗

A Novel Approach to Detect Accelerated Aged and Surface-Mediated Degradation in Explosives by UPLC-ESI-MS.

A new approach was created for studying energetic material degradation. This approach involved detecting and tentatively identifying non-volatile chemical species by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) with multivariate statistical data analysis that form as the CL-20 energetic material thermally degraded. Multivariate data analysis showed clear separation and clustering of samples based on sample group: either pristine or aged material. Further analysis showed counter-clockwise trends in the principal components analysis (PCA), a type of multivariate data analysis, Scores plots. These trends may indicate that there was a discrete shift in the chemical markers as the went from pristine to aged material, and then again when the aged CL-20 mixed with a potentially incompatible material was thermally aged for 4, 6, or 9 months. This new approach to studying energetic material degradation should provide greater knowledge of potential degradation markers in these materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prostate Intrafraction Motion Assessed by Simultaneous kV Fluoroscopy at MV Delivery II: Adaptive Strategies

Purpose: To investigate potential benefits of adaptive strategies for managing prostate intrafractional uncertainties when interfraction motion is corrected online. Methods and Materials: Prostate intrafraction motion was measured using kV fluoroscopy during MV delivery for 571 fractions from 30 hypofractionated radiotherapy patients. We evaluated trending over treatment course using analysis of variance statistics, and we evaluated the ability to correct patient-specific systematic error and apply patient-specific statistical margins after 2 to 15 fractions to compensate 90% of motion. We also evaluated the ability to classify patients into small- and large-motion subgroups based on the first 2 to 20 fractions using discriminant analysis. Results: No time trend was observed over treatment course, and intrafraction motion was patient specific (p < 0.0001). Systematic error in the first week correlated well with that in subsequent weeks, with correlation coefficients of 0.53, 0.50, and 0.41 in right-left (RL), anterior-posterior (AP), and superior-inferior (SI), respectively. After 5 fractions, the adaptive strategy resulted in average margin reductions of 0.3, 0.7, and 0.7 mm in RL, AP, and SI, respectively, with margins ranging from 1 to 3.2 mm in RL, 2 to 7.0 mm in AP, and 2 to 6.6 mm in SI. By contrast, population margins to include the same percentage of motion were 1.7, 4.0, and 4.1 mm. After 2 and 5 fractions, patients were classified into small- and large-motion groups with {approx}77% and {approx}83% accuracy. Conclusions: Adaptive strategies are feasible and beneficial for intrafraction motion management in prostate cancer online image guidance. Patients may be classified into large- and small-motion groups in early fractions using discriminant analysis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Radiant heat transfer between nongray directional surfaces.

Real surface property effects on local and overall heat transfer are studied for a simple system of interacting opaque surfaces. Wavelength, temperature and directional dependence of surface properties is included in the analysis for equal and unequal temperature specularly reflecting surfaces. Tungsten is employed as a representative metal and Roberts' model is used to describe the wavelength and temperature dependence of its optical parameters. The relationships of electromagnetic theory are employed to describe the directional dependence of spectral properties. Numerical results establish that gray direction independent property analysis adequately predicts the general trends of real surface analysis. The results also establish that spectral and temperature dependence of surface properties influences radiant heat transfer to a greater degree than does directional dependence of properties. Property models which adequately account for the nongray character of engineering surfaces while neglecting directional dependence of properties can provide heat transfer results of acceptable engineering accuracy.

Fischer, W. D.↗

An Analysis of System Balance and Architectural Trends Based on Top500 Supercomputers

Supercomputer design is a complex, multi-dimensional optimization process, wherein several subsystems need to be reconciled to meet a desired figure of merit performance for a portfolio of applications and a budget constraint. However, overall, the HPC community has been gravitating towards ever more FLOPS, at the expense of many other subsystems. To draw attention to overall system balance, in this paper, we analyze balance ratios and architectural trends in the world's most powerful supercomputers. Specifically, we have collected performance characteristics of systems between1993 and 2018 based on the Top500 lists, and then analyzed their architectures from diverse system design perspectives. Notably, our analysis studies the performance balance of the machines, across a variety of subsystems such as compute, memory, I/O, interconnect, intra-node connectivity and power. Our analysis reveals that balance ratios of the various subsystems need to be considered carefully alongside the application workload portfolio to provision the subsystem capacity and bandwidth specifications, which can help achieve optimal performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Surface inspection: Research and development

Surface inspection techniques are used for process learning, quality verification, and postmortem analysis in manufacturing for a spectrum of disciplines. First, trends in surface analysis are summarized for integrated circuits, high density interconnection boards, and magnetic disks, emphasizing on-line applications as opposed to off-line or development techniques. Then, a closer look is taken at microcontamination detection from both a patterned defect and a particulate inspection point of view.

Batchelder, J. S.↗

An Analysis of System Balance and Architectural Trends Based on Top500 Supercomputers

Supercomputer design is a complex, multi-dimensional optimization process, wherein several subsystems need to be reconciled to meet a desired figure of merit performance for a portfolio of applications and a budget constraint. However, overall, the HPC community has been gravitating towards ever more Flops, at the expense of many other subsystems. To draw attention to overall system balance, in this paper, we analyze balance ratios and architectural trends in the world’s most powerful supercomputers. Specifically, we have collected the performance characteristics of systems between 1993 and 2019 based on the Top500 lists and then analyzed their architectures from diverse system design perspectives. Notably, our analysis studies the performance balance of the machines, across a variety of subsystems such as compute, memory, I/O, interconnect, intra-node connectivity and power. Our analysis reveals that balance ratios of the various subsystems need to be considered carefully alongside the application workload portfolio to provision the subsystem capacity and bandwidth specifications, which can help achieve optimal performance.

Khan, Awais↗

Income Trends of Residential PV Adopters: An analysis of household-level income estimates [PowerPoint presentation]

The residential photovoltaic (PV) market has expanded rapidly over the past decade, but questions exist about how equitably that growth has occurred across income groups. Prior studies have investigated this question but are often limited by narrow geographic study regions, now-dated analysis timeframes, or coarse estimates of PV-adopter incomes. At the same time, a spate of new programs and initiatives, as well as innovations in business models and product design, have emerged in recent years with the aim of making solar more accessible and affordable to broader segments of the population. Yet, many of those efforts are proceeding without robust underlying information about the income characteristics of recent residential PV adopters. This work aims to establish basic factual information about income trends among U.S. residential solar adopters, with some emphasis on low- and moderate-income (LMI) households. The analysis is unique in its relatively extensive coverage of the U.S. solar market, relying on Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset, which contains project-level data for the vast majority of all residential PV systems in the country (a subset of which are ultimately included in the analysis sample). This analysis is also unique in its use of household-level income estimates that provide a more-precise characterization of PV-adopter incomes than in most prior studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Market analysis of a looming crisis -decommissioning trends and a shrinking crew - 15276

Recent events and trends point to a scenario of more and more reactors being retired due to economic viability reasons, post- Fukushima requirements, and a stalling of the general 'nuclear renaissance'. Such a trend is already happening in the United States and will likely also occur in other countries where older reactors are coming to an end of their original operating license periods or where regulators have imposed additional requirements. In terms of projections for the US, we have performed an analysis based on a plausible scenario that shows that as many as 25 reactors may enter decommissioning in the next twenty years, in addition to the reactors already in decommissioning. A significant change that is happening is that the power plants can no longer apply the SAFSTOR option and a 'wait and see' strategy. The main driver for this change is state intervention along with other factors including the status of the decommissioning funds, long-term liability issues, and a strong public interest in early dismantlement and cleanup. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TRMM Surface Backscatter Measurements - Temporal and Spatial Analysis: Inter-Comparison with NSCAT

Global rainfall is the primary redistributor of earth's energy by the process of latent heat release. This forms the main driving force for the tropical circulation, which in turn impacts the global circulation .through transient events-such as El Nino. Hence, more precise and long-term time series of the rainfall and its variability is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the global climate and climate change. The Precipitation Radar (PR) abroad the US/Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is the first radar ever launched into space that measures detailed vertical profiles of rain intensity over the tropics. One of the challenges in estimating rainfall from spaceborne radars is the presence of attenuation at frequencies, such as 14 GHz of the TRMM PR and future planned systems at this and higher frequencies. A common approach in current rainfall retrieval algorithms is to employed the path integrated attenuation (PIA) as a constraint to the retrieval, and hence overcome errors in the radar calibration or in the assumed rainfall parameters. PIA can either be derived from a radiometer or from the surface reference technique, in which a clear air radar measurement is compared with the measurement in the raining area. The current TRMM 2A21 PIA data product makes use of both a temporal and spatial clear air database for comparison to rainy measurements. In this paper we present results from analysis of TRMM surface backscatter cross-section (sigmaO) measurements from Nov 97-Feb99, and a comparison with sigmaO measurements obtained by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) between Sept96-June97. Measurements for a given month from both instruments are compiled on a 1 deg. (lat.) x 1 deg. (lon.) x 1 hr. grid. This enables TRMM--NSCAT comparison and the investigation of seasonal and diurnal trends in both data sets. From preliminary analysis of TRMM sigmaO's we have decided not to treat the ocean as a single homogeneous region but to select a number of ocean sub-regions and individually analyze their trends. Likewise, and in a similar approach to previous studies of Seasat over-land data, we have selected a number of over-land regions for study. From said sigmaO maps and regional trend analysis we investigate possible sources of trends and variability. In addition, we study the effects of TRMM PR sensitivity through the PR "possible rain" class. Given NSCAT's inability to flag rain contaminated measurements we are able to gauge the impact of rain contamination on NSCAT monthly sigmaO maps, using TRMM measurements. The research described in this paper was carried out by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S.A.

Im, Eastwood↗

Analysis of water–energy nexus and trends in support of the sustainable development goals: A study using longitudinal water–energy use data

Water and energy are two critical natural resources necessary for human activities and socioeconomic development. Water and energy systems are highly interdependent, and water efficiency and energy efficiency are two related indicators for the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. It is critical to improve energy–water use efficiency to sustain socioeconomic development while reducing adverse effects on natural resources, society and the environment. By using longitudinal energy–water use data for China over the past 21 years, this paper develops a temporo-spatial study to address key issues and introduce analytical approaches needed to understand the water–energy nexus and support integrated resource planning and management to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Decomposition analysis indicates that the production effect was the dominating factor contributing the increase in the country's energy–water use, while energy–water efficiency is the major factor slowing the growth of the country's energy–water use. Changes and trends analyses show that the country's energy intensity, water intensity, and water/energy ratio significantly decreased from 1999 to 2019, but the rate of decline has slowed. The disparities of the country's provincial energy intensities, water intensities, and water/energy ratios significantly decreased with economic growth. Results suggest that improving energy–water efficiency is critical for the country to curb increasing energy and water use and achieve resource and environmental protection targets with rapid economic development. Furthermore, the disparities between regional energy-water efficiencies can be reduced along with economic growth, while an overheated economy can widen the disparities and result in unsustainable and inefficient utilization of resources. Government coordination, targets and policy as part of the efficiency governance system are critical for continuous energy–water efficiency improvement and directly influence the implementation and effectiveness of energy–water efficiency policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EV Charging Through Wireless Power Transfer: Analysis of Efficiency Optimization and Technology Trends

This paper is aimed at reviewing the technology trends for wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles (EV). It also analyzes the factors affecting its efficiency and describes the techniques currently used for its optimization. The review of the technology trends encompasses both stationary and moving vehicle charging systems. The study of the stationary vehicle charging technology is based on current implementations and on-going developments at WiTricity and Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL). The moving vehicle charging technology is primarily described through the results achieved by the Korean Advanced Institute of Technology (KAIST) along with on-going efforts at Stanford University. The factors affecting the efficiency are determined through the analysis of the equivalent circuit of magnetic resonant coupling. The air gap between both transmitting and receiving coils along with the magnetic field distribution and the relative impedance mismatch between the related circuits are the primary factors affecting the WPT efficiency. Currently the industry is looking at an air gap of 25 cm or below. To control the magnetic field distribution, Kaist has recently developed the Shaped Magnetic Field In Resonance (SMFIR) technology that uses conveniently shaped ferrite material to provide low reluctance path. The efficiency can be further increased by means of impedance matching. As a result, Delphi's implementation of the WiTricity's technology exhibits a WPT efficiency above 90% for stationary charging while KAIST has demonstrated a maximum efficiency of 83% for moving vehicle with its On Line Vehicle (OLEV) project. This study is restricted to near-field applications (short and mid-range) and does not address long-range technology such as microwave power transfer that has low efficiency as it is based on radiating electromagnetic waves. This paper exemplifies Delphi's work in powertrain electrification as part of its innovation for the real world program geared toward a safer, greener and more connected driving. Moreover, it draws from and adds to Dr. Andrew Brown Jr.'s SAE books 'Active Safety and the Mobility Industry', 'Connectivity and Mobility Industry', and 'Green Technologies and the Mobility Industry'. Magnetic resonant coupling is the foundation of modern wireless power transfer. Its efficiency can be controlled through impedance matching and magnetic field shaping. Current implementations use one or both of these control methods and enable both stationary and mobile charging with typical efficiency within the 80% and 90% range for an air gap up to 25 cm.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Machine Learning Examination of Hydroxyl Radical Differences Among Model Simulations for CCMI-1

Hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting CH4 lifetime (TCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of TCH4 differences among ten models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D) due mostly to clouds, mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapor, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in TCH4, while isoprene, CH4, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead O3 column, and temperature account for little-to-no model variation in CH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in CH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in TCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapor on OH and CH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5% decade(exp -1), respectively. The responses due to NOx, O3 column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies, though a discrepancy in the CH4 response highlights a need for further examination of the CH4 feedback on the abundance of OH.

Julie M Nicely↗

An analysis of the gust-induced overspeed trends of helicopter rotors

Equations for analyzing the potential gust-induced overspeed tendency of helicopter rotors are presented. A parametric analysis was also carried out to illustrate the sensitivity of rotor angular acceleration to changes in rotor lift, propulsive force, tip speed, and forward velocity.

Jenkins, J. L., Jr.↗

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Manderscheid, Jane M.↗

THE GALACTIC STRUCTURE AND CHEMICAL EVOLUTION TRACED BY THE POPULATION OF PLANETARY NEBULAE

Planetary nebulae (PNe) derive from the evolution of {approx}1-8 M{sub sun} mass stars, corresponding to a wide range of progenitor ages, and thus are essential probes of the chemical evolution of galaxies, and indispensable to constrain the results from chemical models. We use an extended and homogeneous data set of Galactic PNe to study the metallicity gradients and the Galactic structure and evolution. The most up-to-date abundances, distances (calibrated with Magellanic Cloud PNe), and other parameters have been employed, together with a novel homogeneous morphological classification, to characterize the different PN populations. We confirm that morphological classes have a strong correlation with Peimbert's type PN, and also with their distribution on the Galactic landscape. We studied the {alpha}-element distribution within the Galactic disk, and found that the best selected disk population (i.e., excluding bulge and halo component), together with the most reliable PN distance scale yields to a radial oxygen gradient of {Delta}log(O/H)/{Delta}R{sub G} = -0.023 {+-} 0.006 dex kpc{sup -1} for the whole disk sample, and of {Delta}log(O/H)/{Delta}R{sub G} = -0.035 {+-} 0.024, -0.023 {+-} 0.005, and -0.011 {+-} 0.013 dex kpc{sup -1}, respectively for Type I, II, and III PNe, i.e., for high-, intermediate-, and low-mass progenitors. Neon gradients for the same PN types confirm the trend. Accurate statistical analysis shows moderately high uncertainties in the slopes, but also confirms the trend of steeper gradient for PNe with more massive progenitors, indicating a possible steepening with time of the Galactic disk metallicity gradient for what the {alpha}-elements are concerned. We found that the metallicity gradients are almost independent on the distance scale model used, as long as these scales are equally well calibrated with the Magellanic Clouds. The PN metallicity gradients presented here are consistent with the local metallicity distribution; furthermore, oxygen gradients determined with young and intermediate age PNe show good consistency with oxygen gradients derived respectively from other young (OB stars, H II regions) and intermediate (open cluster) Galactic populations. We also extend the Galactic metallicity gradient comparison by revisiting the open cluster [Fe/H] data from high resolution spectroscopy. The analysis suggests that they could be compliant with the same general picture of a steepening of gradient with time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗